Flood Early Warning through Voice Message

Dr. Faruk Ul IslamMd. A. Halim Miah and Mohammad Kamrul Islam Bhuiyan

Global Flood Resilience Program Rugby, Birmingham, UK

3 October 2016

Study Methodology

Sirajganj Belkuchi

Sadaarkazipu

r

Bogra

SariakandiDhunot

8. Shuvogacha

UDC9. Gandail

UDC10. Maizbari

UDC

1.Saidabad Union

Digital Centre

( UDC)

2.Kaliahoripur UDC

3.Khuksabari UDC

4.Songacha UDC

5. Rotonpur UDC

6. Belkuchi

Sadar UDC

7. Rajapur

UDC

1. Gosaibari UDC2. Vandarbari UDC

3. Kutubpur UDC4. Sadar UDC5.Fulbari UDC

SERVICESStep-1. Customize for Bulk Voice Message and delivered within 12 hours to the people at flood risk in 15 Unions of five Upazilas under two most flood risk districts in Bangladesh. 2. Bulk Voice message sent among 50,00 mobile holders who can amplify it 3. Disseminate three days continuously with WHAT TO DO MESSAGE

How the Services developed

1 Community Early Warning System

National efforts mostly for Cyclone

2 Flood Early Warning

FFWC generates flood forecast and early warning that is still in challenge to reach at flood risks people

3 Flood early warning messages

Reach to District and maximum Upazila Disaster Management Committee

4 People Centred Flood EWS

There is lacked of investment and efforts by the stakeholders on Flood EWS at community level except some trials like initiatives by GO- NGOs partnership

How the Services developed cont.

Review

national

FEWSConduct need assessment

Piloting at small scale

FEW dissemination through

voice blast in the

community level ( 250 persons) in 2015 flood

Rapid assessment revealed very positive results of that

piloting to reduce loss of poor people’s property and lives

from flood in 2015 (a medium scale flood) and cost benefit

perspective message amplified 10 times from each

voice message recipient 1. Reviewed challenges of piloting 2. Shortened the collection, re-composition and dissemination time by 12 hours from 24 hours ( even services for weekend) 3. target to reach 100 times more than earlier ( 250 directly )

Forecast is very important for agriculture. We who are farmers rainfall information is very needed; Panel Chairman, Ratanpur UP, Sirajganj, consultation meeting, MMS, 11th August 2015

“It is a big challenge to send our message at the grassroots level, where Practical Action is supporting in this work”- Mr. Shamim Ahsan, Agro-Materiology Division, BMD, 10 August 2015

Some directives of Grassroots for EWS development • “Volunteers developed by V2R, are helpful for us. Such

messages (Flood and W forecast) are needed for farmers but the messages of people should be Voice messages as it requires ability to listen and reading”- Chairman, Songacha UP

“ If it is monetary support, once it has end but sustainable consciousness does not end”- Rashida Parvin, UP Member

“women needs to be engaged. Women participation has to be equal”- Rehana Parvin, Gandail UP.

Table 1: Loss and damage assessment of household assets

n= 20 Household

Before flood Household assets price

After flood Household assets price %

5300 5300 0 4700 4700 0

64000 64000 0 47000 47000 0 42200 42200 0 17800 17800 0 41000 41000 0

172000 172000 0 15500 15200 2 23200 22200 4

6700 6300 6 2750 2500 9

184200 167000 9 33800 29800 11 14700 12900 12 13000 11300 13 13700 11500 16 42000 34500 18

9300 6600 29 39100 22650 42

Prelim

inary results of flood loss &

damages at households level in

Sirajganj, 2016

Table 2: Agricultural loss and damage

Before flood

Household assets

price

After flood

Household assets

price % 1000 1000 0 1000 1000 0

10000 10000 0 3000 3000 0

0 0 0 0 0 0

1000 1000 0 8000 8000 0

500 500 0 12000 12000 0

3000 3000 0 0 0 0

500 500 0 250 250 0

3000 3000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

3900 3120 20 18900 0 100

Table 3: Livestock loss and damage

Before flood

Livestock value

After flood

Livestock value %

3000 3000 0 0 0 0

2000 2000 0 0 0 0

2000 2000 0 500 500 0

0 0 0 0 0 0

600 600 0 1000 0 0

250 250 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

18000 18000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

1800 1000 44 1500 750 50 1000 400 60

52000 7000 86

Fisheries loss and damage• No damage found and only 1 person involved

with fish culture

• Other loss and damage- 2 person reported need to do plinth raise (700 and 1200 taka for repair) again and 1 person says toilet and kitchen fully damaged which need to repair (3000 taka).

• Access of flood early warning 4 from Gyaner Haats, 9 from LRA, 2 Govt employee, 1 newspaper , 12 from television, 4 mobile voice blast

• 15% has no access on early warning info.

Narratives: how voice message reduced flood loss & damage How Voice message worked? Utilization of public resources: Amplifying effect “ I do record of voice

message and made it auto with sound system and . It was listened to many people. There was so water level! It was higher than the previous year. This message was so important for them as they knew that it will be flooded but the people who live outside of the embankment they did not know how much the water level will be increased. Being forecast of water they evacuated to a safer place.”- An entrepreneur of UDC, Kutubpur, Bogra

Required interpretation with local context: “ We are illiterate people, we

can not understand Centi meter so we were informed from ‘Tokkor’ (Upto hand) hand. Information came to us from the people of Union parisahad. If somebody is informed then it passes from one to one”- a flood victim

“We received flood early warning message two or three days before. When I got it I decided what to do. I informed my family first and requested to them to inform other neighbours. As my home is out side of the embankment which is very close to Jamuna river, within 100 mitre. I am a LRA. I knew that I would get flood information. I am a responsible man. “

Measuring Cost –Benefit of Voice message on flood early warning • “ River is very close to our residence so in 15 July, in the

earlier stage of flood we shifted only our cattle but when we got the message that water level will be increasing continuously till mid August then we entire family members evacuated to this embankment with most of the valuable things even our beddings, utensils. Two Chouki ( Wooden cot) and bera ( bamboo made fances) of our main room were damaged”- a rescued woman from flood, Kutubpur, Sariakandi, Bogra

• “There was my nephew who was only one and half years old and Aged parents. Household assets like chair- table, three cows, poultry which are very valuable – about 100 thousand taka. As message was came in right time so we saved my family and neighbours valuable assets”

Cost benefit of Flood Early Warning

Consultation on the Post 2015 Framework for Disaster Rusks Reduction highlighted to investment for cross border early warning system for better disaster preparedness in order to save lives and properties from severe events

Potential benefit of flood forecast system in the European Flood Awareness System counted that 400 Euro return from 1 euro invested

Studies show that for every $1 invested in storm, cyclone and flood warning prediction systems in Bangladesh, the estimated return is between $8 and $500 for a 10-year period. The investments made so far have contributed to the saving of thousands of lives

Source: The monetary benefit of early flood warning in Europe, by Florian Pappenberger; ESCAP support to improve disaster early warning system in Bangladesh through RIMES (Regional Integrated Early Warning System for Africa and Asia (RIMES) )

How People accounts return of voice message?

During flood there was Jute plant in the field, in about 30 decimal land that could be sold 10,500 (1500 BDT per 40 KG). We got message but could not harvest full due to immature of plants. We got message five days before both from RIMES ( Mr. Riahan) & Practical Action. If we did not get message then there are some people whose jute was matured to harvest they would loss, 9,000 BDT. I know in my community there are 10 farmers who were able to save their jute from flood – Mr. Akter Hossain, Education SSC, A share cropper, Rajapur Union Parishad, one of the most flood effected community in Sirajganj

Return of voice message cont. Save: Cattle, Household assets and crops partially obviously lives ( Only three severely injured in the entire Sirajganj mainly from snakebites) Partially damage: Toilet , Tubewell (Partially), plinth and bamboo or CI sheet wall of rooms, some plants minimum saved: 10,000 taka and maximum – 120,000 BDT Loss minimum: 600 BDT and maximum: 45,000

What worked and challenge

What worked

Pre-consultation with the community at flood risks

Small scale trial helped to design a realistic voice message dissemination ( among 50,00)

Utilization of local resources ( Mobile database of voter ID card system, LRA, CBOs, UDC entrepreneur)

What need to be improved

Up to date of most vulnerable households database

More localized forecasting system with given priority of community understandable scale

Gender with priority to women

Coordination with National Flood Early Warning Management System to improve the flood early warning system at community level

Thank you