early warning and complex monitoring of ethnic …...1 early warning and complex monitoring of...
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Early Warning and ComplexMonitoring of Ethnic Conflict
and Mass Atrocities
by John G. HeidenrichFmr. Senior Analyst for Genocide and Instability
Warning IssuesOpen Source Solutions (OSS), Inc.
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The crime of genocide involves a widerange of actions, including not only thedeprivation of life but also the preventionof life (abortions, sterilizations) and alsodevices considerably endangering life andhealth (artificial infections, working to death inspecial camps, deliberate separation offamiliesfor depopulanon purposes and so forth).
All these actions are subordinated to thecriminal intent to destroy or to cripplepermanently a human group. The acts aredirected against groups as such, andindividuals are selected for destruction onlybecause they belong to these groups.
Raphael Lemkin
In the present Convention, genocide meansany of the following acts committed withintent to destroy, in whole or in part, anational, ethnical, racial or religious group, assuch:
(a) Killing members of the group;
(b) Causing serious bodily or mental harm tomembers of the group;
(c) Deliberately inflicting on on the group,condition of life calculated to bring about itsphysical destruction in whole or in part:
(d) Imposing measures intended to preventbirths within the group;
(e) Forcibly transferring children of thegroup to another group.
Article III, The Convention on the Preventionand Punishment of the Crime of Genocide
The GenocideConvention does notprotect political and
socio-economic groups,though these groups
have also beenvictimized.
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Indicators of Potential Genocide
* In the past 30 years, have acts of genocide beencommitted against a particular group? Werethose genocidal acts rewarded by the society?
* In the past 4 years, has the society's regime eitherbroken down or entrenched its power by violatinghuman rights on a large scale?
* Has a scapegoat-orientedpropaganda campaignbegun? Has a war or a rebellion started?
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Open Sources ofInformation:
* The News Media* Academia* Non-Governmental Organizations* Politically-biased Internet Sites
Open Sources of Information:
The News Media* The Print Media (Newspapers)* Television & Radio transcripts* News-oriented Internet Sites
- ReliefWeb
- Inter'l Regional Information Network
Open Sources of Information:
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Academia* Dedicated Research Centers* Dedicated Networks and
Associations* Secondary Research Centers* Individual Scholars
Center for Hoiocaust, Genocide &Peace Studies'
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1u9WgS Ir d(igD:ty. ptolik-al r1ghli. ,id cuiural SLnivaIl IpCts of humanrichs a shcy lre gencally dcrtaind> wtah Ither strugcs few a hut, Tlcgroup sCtve as ., a irwn lor critcal discu.sin n nk'il ih. social, cc<,Ui.and pdhiticsa ctraians 1tv plMkc hzelth thrjhiih ilt .pmnsorship of ict,.cminrn. and scvlce ctivitici.
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Open Sources of Information:
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Non-GovernmentalOrganizations (NGOs)* Human Rights Organizations* Humanitarian Relief Organizations* Agencies of the United Nations* Other International Organizations
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Politically-biased Web Sites
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Some Conclusions
* OSINT should fill a gap, not an archive.* OSINT must be collected by analysts, not amateurs.* Doing the analysis is easy. The hard part is keeping
enough people doing it.* Effective early warning should warn us months or
even years in advance -- andprobably can.
* For atrocities prevention to last, the public mustshow its concern. This concern begins with yozu
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