dynamics of the subarctic gyre and physical/biological interactions svein sundby eur-oceans basin...
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Dynamics of the Subarctic Gyre and physical/biological interactions
Svein Sundby
EUR-OCEANS BASIN Workshop, Reykjavík, 12 – 14 March 2005
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Outline
• Regime shifts and hypothesis of advection of Calanus as the link between temperature and cod recruitment (Sundby 2000)
• New interpretations on the GSAs (Sundby and Drinkwater 2005) - implications for advection
• Some very preliminary results on abundance of Calanus finmarchicus in the North Sea and water masses in the Norwegian Trench.
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Linear response Non-linear respons 1 Non-linear respons 2
Ottersen et al. (2004)
Ecosystem responses to climate change
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Sundby (2000)
Calanus finmarchicus in relation to the circulation of the Subartic Gyre
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Gjevik et al. (1995)
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Sundby (2000)
Mean ambient temperature for Calanus finmarchicus population in the North Atlantic (hibernation excluded).
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Planque and Frédou (1999)
Recruitment in Atlantic cod
Temperature for optimal growth rate
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Sundby (2000)
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Rothschild (1998)
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Sundby (2000)
Calanus finmarchicus in relation to the circulation of the Subartic Gyre
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Temperature Cod recruitment
Calanus finmarchicus Cod recruitment
ADVECTION
ATLANTIC COD RECRUITMENT
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Principal spatial features of Calanus finmarchicus, cod and temperature in the North Atlantic
Sundby (2000)
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Conceptual model for the combined advection of heat and Calanus finmarchicus from the deep-sea core production region onto the
surrounding shelves with cod populations
Sundby (2000)
Change in advection along a negative
temperature gradient
Change in advection along the isolines of
temperature
Change in advection along a positive
temperature gradient
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Linear response Non-linear respons 1 Non-linear respons 2
Ottersen et al. (2004)
Ecosystem responses to climate change
![Page 17: Dynamics of the Subarctic Gyre and physical/biological interactions Svein Sundby EUR-OCEANS BASIN Workshop, Reykjavík, 12 – 14 March 2005](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022062309/5697bfb71a28abf838c9ed1a/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
• Regime shifts and hypothesis of advection of Calanus as the link between temperature and cod recruitment (Sundby 2000)
• New interpretations on the GSAs (Sundby and Drinkwater 2005) - implications for advection
• Some very preliminary results on abundance of Calanus finmarchicus in the North Sea and water masses in the Norwegian Trench.
![Page 18: Dynamics of the Subarctic Gyre and physical/biological interactions Svein Sundby EUR-OCEANS BASIN Workshop, Reykjavík, 12 – 14 March 2005](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022062309/5697bfb71a28abf838c9ed1a/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
Dickson et al. (1988)
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Belkin et al. (1998)
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S 2
S 0 S 1S 3
tt
SV
V
Low salin ity anom aly induced by patch advection
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Dooley et al. (1984)
1970s GSA
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66
68
70
72
74
76
78
80
82
84
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
Distance (1000 km)
Ye
ar
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
Distance (1000 km)
Yea
r
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
Distance (1000 km)
Yea
r61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
Distance (1000 km)
Yea
r
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
Distance (1000 km)
Yea
r
Low Salinity Anomalies
70s 80s 90s
High Salinity Anomalies
60s 80s
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2
3
4
5
6
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Te
mp
era
ture
/In
v.
Ice
In
de
x
Davis Strait
Kola Section
2
3
4
5
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Tem
per
atu
re /
In
v. I
ce I
nd
ex
Davis Strait
Kola Section
Temperature in Kola Section and Inverted Ice Index in Davis Strait
Annual Mean
3-yrs Run. Mean
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Kola
Rockall
Fylla
Newfoundland
Salinity in the Subpolar Gyre
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u . S = K 2S
S/t = u . S - K 2S > 0
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S 2
S 0 S 1S 3
tt
SV
V
Low salin ity anom aly induced by patch advection
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S 2 S 0S 1S 3
tV
t
Sv
Low salin ity anom aly induced by flux variationin a salin ity gradient
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NORTHWEST ATLANTIC NORTHEAST ATLANTIC
Fylla Bank (A) - Grand Bank (B) Faroe-Shetland (C) - Kola Section (D)
Salinity Propagation Salinity Propagation NAO Index
PERIOD Anomaly Speed (cm/s) PERIOD Anomaly Speed (cm/s) 3-years mean
47 - 50 High 2,3 No clear signal -0,200
No clear signal 53 - 55,8 High 2,52 0,207
No clear signal 55 -59,2 Low 1,68 -0,496
57,5 - 60 Low 2,82 59 - 61,2 High 3,2 -0,020
61 - 65 High 1,76 63 - 66,4 Low 2,07 -1,607
69 - 71 Low 3,52 68 - 70,3 High 3,06 -0,845
77 - 80,5 High 2,01 76 - 79,8 Low 1,85 -0,767
82 - 84 Low 3,52 82 - 83,8 High 3,91 1,140
87 - 89 High 3,52 87 - 89,4 Low 2,94 -0,160
89,5 - 92,5 Low 2,35 90-93,1 High 2,27 1,831
No clear signal 93-98 Low 1,76 -0,004
No clear signal 98 - 00,0 High 3,52 0,949
Mean Speed/Mean NAO index 2,40 2,06 -0,539
Mean Speed/Mean NAO index 3,05 3,08 0,544
Sal ini ty fl ux events of the Subarctic Gyre 1947-1990
02
1
E vent No.
NE Atlantic
NW Atlantic
Low fl ux events of the Subarcti c Gyre 1947-1990
-4
6
1
E vent Number
High fl ux events of the Subarctic Gyre 1947-1990
02
1
E vent Number
P r opagat ion speeds of high an d low S alin it y A n omalies of t he S ubpolar Gyr e
1
2
1 1,1 1,2 1,3 1,4 1,5 1,6 1,7 1,8 1,9 2
P ro p a g a tio n sp e e d fro m R e g io n C to R e g io n D (c m/s)
P r opagati on s peeds of hi gh and l ow s al i ni ty anomal i es
012345
0 0, 1 0, 2 0, 3 0, 4 0, 5 0, 6 0, 7 0, 8 0, 9 1
P r opagat ion s speeds in Nor t heast A t lan t ic ( cm/ s)
High and Low Salinity Anomalies of the Subarctic Gyre
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0
1
2
3
4
5
0 1 2 3 4 5
Propagation speed from region C to region D (cm/s)
Pro
pa
ga
tio
n s
pe
ed
fro
m r
eg
ion
A t
o r
eg
ion
B
(cm
/s)
1960/70s GSA in the Northwest Atlantic
Mid 70s GSA in the
Northeast Atlantic
A high salinity anomaly of the
Northeast Atlantic
A high salinity anomaly in the
Northwest Atlantic
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NAO Winter Index
-20
-10
0
10
20
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
SL
P A
no
mal
y
Temperature Kola Section
2
3
4
5
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Year
Tem
per
atu
re
NAO and the Atlantic water temperature in the Barents Sea
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NORTHWEST ATLANTIC NORTHEAST ATLANTIC
Fylla Bank (A) - Grand Bank (B) Faroe-Shetland (C) - Kola Section (D)
Climate Propagation Climate Propagation NAO Index
PERIOD Anomaly Speed (cm/s) PERIOD Anomaly Speed (cm/s) 3-years mean
1904 - 06 No obs. 1904 - 06 HIGH 5,1 1,109
1908 - 12 No obs. 1908 - 12 LOW 1,9 0,636
1912 - 14 No obs. 1912 - 14 HIGH 3,8 0,585
Mean Speed/Mean NAO index 1,90 0,636
Mean Speed/Mean NAO index 4,45 0,847
Climate Anomalies during the beginning of the 20th century
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Propagation speed of salinity anomalies in the NE and NW Atlantic versus NAO Index
0
0,5
1
1,5
2
2,5
3
3,5
4
4,5
-2 -1 0 1 2 3
NAO Index 3-yrs mean
Pro
pag
atio
n s
pee
d (
cm/s
)
R2 = 0,13
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• Regime shifts and hypothesis of advection of Calanus as the link between temperature and cod recruitment (Sundby 2000)
• New interpretations on the GSAs (Sundby and Drinkwater 2005) - implications for advection
• Some very preliminary results on abundance of Calanus finmarchicus in the North Sea and water masses in the Norwegian Trench.
![Page 34: Dynamics of the Subarctic Gyre and physical/biological interactions Svein Sundby EUR-OCEANS BASIN Workshop, Reykjavík, 12 – 14 March 2005](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022062309/5697bfb71a28abf838c9ed1a/html5/thumbnails/34.jpg)
Sundby (2000)
Calanus finmarchicus in relation to the circulation of the Subartic Gyre
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1973-99
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Atlantic inflow
Norwegian Sea intermediate water
Norwegian Coastal Current
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34.9 34.95 35 35.05 35.1 35.15 35.2 35.25 35.3 35.35 35.44
5
6
7
8
9
10
Salinity (PSU)
Tem
pera
ture
(IT
S-9
0)27
27.3
27.5 27.7
Feie - Shetland, 1970 -99, March and AprilBlue: st.9-12, 100-200m. Red: st.4-8, 300m-bottom.
NSIW
AF
Norwegian Sea Intermediate Water
Atlantic Water
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6,20
6,40
6,60
6,80
7,00
7,20
7,40
7,60
7,80
8,00
0 10 20 30 40 50
C. finmarchicus abundance
Te
mp
era
ture
R2 = 0,27
Mean abundance of C. finmarchicus at B1 vs the deep water temperature in the Norwegian Trench