dwelling ideals and reality - aalborg...

Dwelling ideals and reality

- How demographic changes shape future dwelling preferences and how municipalities combine this with environmental challenges

Rasmus Nedergård Ste!ansen

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Outer-region (16)Countryside (30)Medium (17)City (35)

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it suggests that pollution abatement offers meaningfuleconomic returns.

The International Energy Agency forecasts that Chi-na’s greenhouse gas emissions will rise nearly 120 per-cent over the next twenty years, by which time China’semissions will exceed those of the United States.Although China receives the most attention, it is notthe only Asian nation where this concern is present.India is also growing rapidly, and its major cities experi-ence particulate levels often eight to ten times higherthan those in the worst American cities. Its greenhousegas emissions are forecast to grow 70 percent by 2025.According to a recent report from British Petroleum(BP), China and India have already passed the UnitedStates, Europe, and the former Soviet Union in coalconsumption.11

Beyond air pollution and greenhouse gas emissions,China is also experiencing high levels of water and oceanpollution, soil erosion, and heavy stresses on forest, wet-lands, and endangered species. The scarcity of potablewater is nearing crisis proportions. Groundwater has beenbadly depleted, and surface water sources are equallyoverused. The Yellow River, for example, has run dryevery year since 1985 because of diversions; in 1997, itfailed to reach the ocean for 226 days. China’s StateEnvironmental Protection Agency reported in June thattwenty-five out of the twenty-seven largest lakes inChina were polluted, some seriously. Chinese industryappears to be sloppy in its practices. SEPA reports asmany as 2,500 environmental “accidents” a year over the last decade.

Dismal Future or Turning Point?

As dismal as this picture is, the conventional wisdomabout China’s environmental future is likely to be wrong.A closer look at facts on the ground and recent trendssuggests that China is an excellent test case for the con-troversial theory known as the “environmental KuznetsCurve” (EKC). The EKC holds that the relationshipbetween economic growth and environmental quality isan inverted U-shape, according to which environmentalconditions deteriorate during early stages of economicgrowth but begin to improve after a certain threshold ofwealth is achieved. (See figure 2.) The original KuznetsCurve was named for Nobel laureate Simon Kuznets,who postulated in the 1950s that income inequality firstincreases and then declines with economic growth. In1991, economists Gene M. Grossman and Alan B.

Krueger suggested the Kuznets Curve applied to the envi-ronment.12 It was a powerful counterargument to theonce-conventional view, popular in the aftermath of the“limits to growth” enthusiasm of the 1970s, that eco-nomic growth was the enemy of the environment, andthe EKC gained wide acceptance as a key developmentconcept in the 1990s, including at the World Bank.13

There is a burgeoning economic literature about theEKC, with the usual controversy over econometricmethodology and the robustness of the models. Most ofthe empirical and econometric research on the EKCexamines air and water pollution, as they offer the bestdata sets for cross-national analysis. Critics argue that theEKC is not statistically robust, that it does not apply tothe full range of environmental impacts, and that it doesnot account for displacement effects, i.e., the “race to thebottom” whereby richer nations outsource their environ-mental harmful production functions to poorer nationswith weaker environmental controls, resulting in netincreases in global pollution.14

Defenders of the EKC argue optimistically that theEKC is actually dropping and shifting to the left, mean-ing that the environmental turning point will be reachedsooner in the developing world than in today’s wealthynations. Developing nations, it is thought, will skip oversome of the stages of growth and pollution by adoptingcleaner technologies earlier and developing regulatoryinstitutions to control pollution.

While further empirical research will no doubtadvance our understanding of the strengths and weak-nesses of the EKC, China has emerged as a real-worldtest case. Several EKC studies conclude that sulfur diox-ide pollution begins to decline at a per-capita income

- 3 -

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FIGURE 2Stylized Environmental Kuznets Curve 2000

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