duncan faulkner head of hydrology, jba consulting we safe from reservoir flooding? duncan faulkner...
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Are we safe from reservoir flooding?
Duncan Faulkner
Head of Hydrology, JBA Consulting
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A confession
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Date Location % of estimated PMP
28 Jul 1917 Bruton, Somerset 102%
18-19 Aug 1924 Cannington, Somerset 103%
19 Jul 1955 Martinstown, Dorset 117%?
7 Oct 1960 Horncastle, Lincs 101%
19 May 1989 Halifax, W. Yorkshire 119%
Going over the top… rainfall
Source: Stewart, E. J., Jones, D. A., Svensson, C., Morris, D. G., Dempsey, P., Dent, J. E., Collier, C. G., and Anderson,
C. A. (2013) Reservoir Safety – Long Return Period Rainfall. R&D Technical Report WS 194/2/39/TR, Defra.
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Date Location Catchment size
(km2)
% of estimated
PMF
17 Aug 1917 Red-a-ven, Devon 4.0 141%
12 Aug 1948 Stobshiel, East Lothian 4.1 111%
08 Aug 1967 Claughton, Lancashire 2.3 200%
16 Aug 1970 Dorback, Morayshire 365 139%
13 Jun 1980 Caldwell Burn, Dumfriesshire 5.7 381%
12 Jul 1982 Chulmleigh, Devon 1.7 270%
Going over the top… flood flows
Source: Acreman, M.C. (1989) Extreme historical UK floods and maximum flood estimation. J. IWEM 3, 404-12.
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Upward trends in the uplands
1938 1943 1948 1953 1958 1963 1968 1973 1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008 2013
Leven
Eamont
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A look under the bonnet
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1. PMP dated
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Timeline of rainfall frequency models
1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s 2010s
Return periods up to 1000 years: fluvial flooding and drainage design
FSR rainfalls
FEH rainfalls
FEH13
10,000-year return period
FSR rainfalls
FEH13
PMP
FSR rainfalls
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2. Flood Studies Report model superseded
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3. Rapid response
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3. Rapid response
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3. Rapid response
The consequence of the observed nonlinearity in
response time is to increase design peak flow by … up
to 80% when considering the probable maximum flood.
Kjeldsen et al. (2016), Journal of Hydrologic Engineering
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4. Snowmelt
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5. Frozen ground
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6. Errors in % runoff for some soil types
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7. No allowance for climate change
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Summary
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Duncan Faulkner and Jeremy Benn (2016). Reservoir Flood Estimation: Time for a Re-think. Proceedings of the British Dam Society Conference: Dams – Benefits and Disbenefits; Assets or Liabilities? ICE Publishing / British Dam Society.