dun & bradstreet philippines business optimism index · the dun & bradstreet business...

MeasuringConfidence

MeasuredDecisions

Business Optimism IndexPhilippinesD U N & B R A D S T R E E T

Quarter 4 2017

show no change ( ) in the ensuing quarter as compared to the same quarter in the prior year: Volume of Sales, Net Pro�ts, Selling Prices, New Orders, Inventory Levels, and Employees.

BUSINESS OPTIMISM INDEX

SURVEY METHODOLOGY

AGRICULTURE CONSTRUCTION MANUFACTURING TRANSPORTATION WHOLESALERSSERVICESMININGUTILITIES FINANCE

SALES VOLUME

NETPROFIT

NEW ORDERS

SELLING PRICE

INVENTORY EMPLOYMENT

REAL ESTATE

The Dun & Bradstreet Business Optimism Index (BOI) report is a measure of business confidence in the economy. Released quarterly, it measures the pulse of the business community and is one of the most effective ways to track how the business community perceives the business environment, and where they think it is going. Over time, this quarterly survey has emerged as a leading indicator of turning points in economic activity in countries which it is published.

For the purpose of conducting the survey, a sample is randomly selected from Dun & Bradstreet database, consisting of companies belonging to the following sectors including Agriculture, Construction, Utilities, Finance, Manufacturing, Mining, Services, Transportation, Wholesale, and Real Estate.

The individual indices are then calculated by subtracting the percentage of respondents expecting decreases from those expecting increases. Unless otherwise stated, increases and decreases in indices represent changes from the previous quarter.

All the respondents in the survey are asked six standard questions regarding their expectations as to whether the following critical parameters pertaining to their respective companies will register an increase ( ), decline ( ) or

Business Optimism IndexPHILIPPINES

Quarter 4 2017

Philippine business community remains confident for Q4 of 2017 with hopes of growth in number of orders and increase in sales. Dun & Bradstreet Philippines Business Optimism Index is ending the year at 57.6% which shows a slight rise from previous quarter's 55.9%.

The general positive outlook was seen in 6 indicators -volume of sales, net profit, selling price, new orders, inventory level and employment. 61% of the respondentsincreased positive expectations while 3% decreased. Agricultural, construction and wholesale sectors turn to be the most optimistic this quarter. Factors affectingthis outlook are anticipation of consumer demands in the upcoming holiday season for the wholesalers and assumption of favorable weather conditions for agricultural products. More businesses are also confidentthat new orders will come in with an over-all score of 77.67%.

Duterte government's initiative of 'Build, Build, Build' program wherein the government is expected to spend more in infrastructure projects is seen to boost the construction sector’s growth. NEDA’s OIC and Undersecretary for Investment Programming,Rolando G. Tungpalan also shared that, "sustained infrastructure development, translating to increase in public construction expenditure, is anticipated not only to increase the growth of the manufacturing sector, but also to support the continuous growth of the economy."

On the other hand, mining sector remains to be the less optimistic mainly due to the plan of the newly appointed Environment Secretary Roy Cimatu to impose higher tax on mining operations and implementfuture policies to expand the required rehabilitation funds for miners.

Overall, the modest increase of this quarter's optimism shows that 2018 will be more challenging for businesses and that growth plans should not be abandoned as the country's economists are pushing for stronger revenue generating policies through the tax reform bill.

9080706050403020100

876543210

BOI S

CORE

Composite BOI GDP Growth (y-o-y %)

OVERALL BOI SCORE CHART

GD

P G

ROW

TH (%

)

Q12015

Q22015

Q32015

Q42015

Q12016

Q22016

Q32016

Q42016

Q12017

Q22017

Q32017

Q42017

Slow Rise in PH BusinessOptimismTowards the End of 2017


Quarter 4 2017

Q12016

Q42015

Q32016

Q42016

Q12017

Q22017

Q32017

Q42017

Q22016

Q32015

Q22015

Q12015

Q12016

Q42015

Q32016

Q42016

Q12017

Q22017

Q32017

Q42017

Q22016

Q32015

Q22015

Q12015

VOLUME OF SALES

NET PROFIT

AGRICULTURE CONSTRUCTION MANUFACTURING TRANSPORTATION ALLSERVICESMININGFINANCE WHOLESALE


120

80

40

100

160

140

60

20

0

%

120

80

40

100

160

140

60

20

0

%


Quarter 4 2017

Q12016

Q42015

Q32016

Q42016

Q12017

Q22017

Q32017

Q42017

Q22016

Q32015

Q22015

Q12015

Q12016

Q42015

Q32016

Q42016

Q12017

Q22017

Q32017

Q42017

Q22016

Q32015

Q22015

Q12015


60

20

-20

40

100

80

0

-40

-60

-80

%

SELLING PRICE

NEW ORDER


120

80

40

100

160

140

60

20

0

%


Quarter 4 2017

INVENTORY LEVELS

EMPLOYMENT



Q12016

Q42015

Q32016

Q42016

Q12017

Q22017

Q32017

Q42017

Q22016

Q32015

Q22015

Q12015

Q12016

Q42015

Q32016

Q42016

Q12017

Q22017

Q32017

Q42017

Q22016

Q32015

Q22015

Q12015

80

40

0

60

120

100

20

-20

-40

%

100

0

-50

50

150

-100

-150

%

ABOUT DUN & BRADSTREET® (D&B)Dun & Bradstreet (NYSE: DNB) grows the most valuable relationships in business. By uncovering truth and meaning from data, we connect customers with the prospects, suppliers, clients and partners that matter most, and have since 1841. Nearly ninety percent of the Fortune 500, and companies of every size around the world, rely on our data, insights and analytics. For more about Dun & Bradstreet, visit www.DNB.com.ph.

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