due diligence of ge shipping 51% acquisition by essar ltd
TRANSCRIPT
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Due Diligence of GE Shipping
51% acquisition by Essar Ltd.
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Group 2
Abhishek Paronigar PGP-05-041
Mansi Tandon PGP-05-066
Soumyadipta Dey PGP-05-083
Richa Gupta PGP-05-092
Rohit Kanuga PGP-05-098
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Overview of the presentation
• Global Perspective of Shipping Industry• Brief Snapshot of GE Shipping (GES)• Analysis of Fleets, assets, employees• Past Financials• The Shipping Industry • Investment Perspective• Valuation
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The Shipping IndustryGlobal Perspective On
Shipping Industry
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Shipping Industry
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Shipping Industry: Global Trends
• Oversupply of vessels imminent
• Rapidly growing World Fleet Orderbook at 20% YOY
• Rise in the delivery of vessels, growth of 15% YOY in
2005
• Decline in scrapping to 9-14 DWT from 27-29 DWT to
increase available shipping
• Freight rates to decline by 5% -20% for various vessel
types in the coming 2-3 years
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Trends in Tanker Segment
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Trends in Bulk Segments
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Trends in Container Segments
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Offshore Business
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Tonnage Surplus
• Decreasing surplus leading to freight rates peaking
• Increased delivery and reduced scrapping will lead to increase in tonnage surplus and thus fall in the freight rates
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The Shipping IndustryIndian Shipping Industry
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India Crude Reality
• India is 6th largest Oil Consumer (112mt per annum)
• 2nd largest growing market (10 yr CAGR at 6.1%)
• 7th Largest Oil Importer (77% of domestic consumption)
• Oil Imports ($38.70 bn contribute 47.20% of total imports)
• Going Forward
– Additional capacity expansion to result in potential market for
shipping crude into India
– LNG trade is going to be a growing sector
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Indian Shipping Fleet Growth
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Indian Tonnage Vs World
• Introduction of tonnage tax to boost Indian tonnage
• Share of Indian ships in Indian overseas trade at 15%
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Indian Fleet Vs World
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India Vs world - Summary
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Ships
Crude Oil Carriers:capable of transporting
vast quantities of liquids
Class Tonnage (dwt) Description
Panamax 60,000 – 80,000 Capable of fitting through Panama canal
Aframax 80,000 – 120,000 based on the Average Freight Rate Assessment (AFRA) tanker rate system.
Suezmax 130,000 – 160,000 Capable of fitting through the Suezcanal
VLCC 240,000 – 320,000 Very large crude oil carrier
ULCC 350,000 – 500,000 Ultra large crude oil carrier
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Ships
Dry Bulk Carriers:Used to transporting bulk
Cargo items such as ore, grains
Class Tonnage (dwt) Description
Handysize 10,000 – 40,000
Handymax 40,000 – 60,000
Panamax 60,000 – 100,000 Capable of fitting through the Suezcanal
Capesize 100,000 + Too large to traverse through the Suez or Panama canal. These go round the Cape of Good hope
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Regulatory Environment
• 100% FDI allowed in Shipping
• Automatic approval for FDI upto 74% in shipping
• 100% investment by NRI’s with full repatriation benefits
• No permission required for raising Forex loans from abroad by mortgaging vessels with the lender.
• Tonnage Taxation regime implemented in 2005 replacing the Corporate Taxation regime
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Regulatory Environment
• Disadvantages for the “Indian Flagged” ships
• High Crewing Cost & Shortage of Officers
• Employees on Indian flagged ships bound to pay
Income Tax - disincentive vis a vis Other
countries
• Plethora of Other Taxes: Capital Gains Tax, Service Tax, etc
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Great Eastern Shipping Corp
GE Shipping : Company Profile
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Brief Snapshot of GES
• Incorporated on August 3rd, 1948
• More than 5 decades in shipping
• 41 vessels, all owned , transporting bulk commodities
• 9 new building vessels on order
• Rated “AAA” ( Domestic currency debt) since 1996
• Demerged the offshore division on 16th October 2006 with the
objective to unlock shareholder value
• High liquidity and adequate floating stock – 27% with
promoters and 43% with the public
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Business Profile
The Great Eastern Shipping Company Ltd.
Shipping business Offshore business
Tanker
Dry Bulk
Wholly owned subsidiary Greatship (India) Ltd.
Offshore oil field support and Logistic services
It is India’s largest Private shipping company with a global customer base and strong financials
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Fleet – Asset profile
Fleet (41)2.96 mn dwt
13.1 yrs
TonnageAvg.Age
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Time Charter Yields
Time Charter Yields (TCY) ($/day)
2006 - 2007 2005 – 2006
Q1 Q2 Q1 Q2
Tanker - Crude 26,582 32,015 26,922 19,847
- Product 19,908 20,834 19,437 20,293
LPG Carrier 16,386 16,386 16,505 16,386
Dry Bulk 15,487 15,231 22,590 15,545
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Employees
Before Demerger
Onshore staff
Floating Staff
No. of Employees
174
529
After the Demerger 80 odd employees were shifted to the Offshore business
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Employee Cost
2006
( USD)
2005
(INR)
2006
(USD)
2005
(INR)
Wages & Salaries 99151 4386440 105485 4738386
Social Security Cost
10470 463193 11212 503643
Other Pension Cost
39183 1733456 53173 2388531
Total 148804 6583089 169870 7630560
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Other Salient Features
• Broad based research
• Continuous evaluation of fleet through judicial
sale/purchase activities
• Benchmarking with global standards
• De-risking
– Through diverse asset base
– Long term employment
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Clients – GE shipping
• British Petroleum
• Exxon Mobil
• Shell
• ONGC
• Reliance
• Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Ltd.
• Bharat Petroleum Corporation Ltd.
• Indian Oil Corporation
• Transammonia
• Glencore
• Fortum
• Hyundai Heavy Industries Co. Ltd.
• Saudi Aramco
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Industry Drivers for Shipping Industry
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Drivers for the Shipping Industry
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Key Parameters in Shipping Industry
• Management Control: Decisions on fleet mix, mix of time charter and spot rates
• Fleet Mix: Decisions on the segment to cater to (tankers, dry bulk, gas , container ) or the less volatile offshore business
• Valuations: P/E ratios does not properly reflect
the valuation of the highly volatile shipping
business. Hence P/BV is a better indicator of this
asset intensive business
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Key Issues in Global Shipping
• Safe ships: Homeland Security regulations
• Fewer ships: Fleet portfolio/shipper consolidation
• Fewer ports: Global hubbing/port consolidation
• Better ports: Greater efficiency, better landside
distribution
• Enough ships: Capacity supply
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Financial HighlightsFinancials of GE Shipping
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Financial Highlights
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The Last Five Years…
* Residual Company
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Cash Flow Statement
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Balance Sheet
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GE Shipping De-merger
Demerger of GE Shipping
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Demerger Details
• The offshore division was made into a separate company called
Great Offshore on October 16, 2006
• Done with the purpose of unlocking shareholder value
• The demerger had to be revised due to reservations form ONGC
about promoter backing of the new entity.
• Mr. Vijay K Sheth was then transferred to Great Offshore and
ceased to be an MD of GES
• Every 5 equity shares held prior to Book Closure got 4 equity shares
of GE shipping and 1 equity share of Great Offshore.
However, refocus on Offshore business through Greatship( India) Ltd. Seems To suggest that the demerger was due to family reasons and not “unlocking Shareholder value”
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Snapshot of Demerged Entities
Size of the demerged Great Offshore Company is 15% of the revenues of GE Shipping
Market gives a better
premium to Offshore
companies owing to their
strong earnings potential
GE Shipping with its
focus on Offs
hore Activitie
s through subsidiary
Great Ship In
dia Ltd. Is poised to
benefit fro
m the in
crease in E&P
activitie
s. Investin
g into GE Shipping at it
s current lo
w valuations is an
attractiv
e proposition.
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GE Shipping De-merger
Valuation of GE Shipping
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Valuation Concerns
• PE is not a useful metric to Value Shipping Companies
– Shipping is a highly volatile business and freight rates are determined depending on global supply and demand.
• Price to book value (P/BV) would be an appropriate – Asset intensive nature of the shipping business. Captures the Balance Sheet strength
of the business.
• Net Asset Value Method is most appropriate– Book value does not indicate the market value of the fleet. NAV method captures the
market value of the fleet.
• For Cyclical businesses like Shipping, Market and Assets (NAV) Based Multiples are more relevant.
– In valuing GE Shipping more emphasis has been given to this concern.
• Price to Earnings would be apt for Offshore companies– Revenue visibility is higher and also less volatile.
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Revenue Forecast Assumptions.
New Building Order Book Position Offshore Support Vessels Platform Supply Vessel Apr-06 Q2 FY09 Platform Supply Vessel Apr-06 Q3 FY09 Anchor Handling Tug cum Supply Vessel Aug-06 Q3 FY08 Anchor Handling Tug cum Supply Vessel Aug-06 Q4 FY08 Anchor Handling Tug cum Supply Vessel Sep-06 H1 CY09 Anchor Handling Tug cum Supply Vessel Sep-06 H1 CY09 Anchor Handling Tug cum Supply Vessel Sep-06 H1 CY09 Anchor Handling Tug cum Supply Vessel Sep-06 H1 CY09 Exploration Rig Jun-06 Q4 CY09 Offshore Support Vessels Platform Supply Vessel May-06 H2 FY07 Platform Supply Vessel Sep-06 Q2 FY08
Source -Company Data
Month of Contracting
Date of Delivery
Category
Greatship (India) - Vessel Delivery Schedule
Vessel Hull Dwt Delivery
MR product carrier Double 47400 Feb '07
MR product carrier Double 47400 March '07
MR product carrier Double 47400 Aug '07
MR product/chemical carrier Double 37000 Feb '07
MR product/chemical carrier Double 37000 April '07
LR-1 product tanker Double 74500 end 2008 LR-1 product tanker Double 74500 end 2008 LR-1 product tanker Double 74500 mid 2009 LR-1 product tanker Double 74500 mid 2009 Suezmax Double 147834 3QFY07 Source -Company Data
GE Shipping - Vessel Delivery Schedule
The company’s subsidiary Greatship (India) Ltd. At present has 1 Support Vessel. But the company has a huge Vessel Delivery Schedule. The Cash Flows arising out of these have been factored into our valuation. However the renewed focus on Offshore business after the demerger with Great Offshore indicates that the demerger was due to control and family reasons rather than “unlocking shareholder value”. Disputes on the Non Compete agreements could be a cause of concern.
Apart from looking at the market factors, the Sales projections have been made considering the Vessel Delivery Schedules of GE Shipping and its Subsidiary.
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Valuation Forecasts
FY07F FY08 F FY09F FY10F
VLCC 59400 59400 50490 50490
Suezmax 48438 48438 41172 41172
Aframax 30348 30348 28527 28527
Product tankers 22427 22395 20533 20532
Dry-bulk 20666 20834 18923 18923
Average yields (US$/day)
Based on the Global trends and Demand –Supply factors outlined earlier, we estimate a downward trend in Average Yields. The Drop in yields is as high as 15% for VLCC carriers.
* Based on Industry reports and interactions
Capex requirements of the company for the Next Three Years are taken as
GE Shipping – Approx Rs. 2300 Crores
Great Ship (India) Ltd – Approx Rs. 1710 Crores.
The company also has not been leveraged to a large extent and intends to expand when asset prices reduce over time.
Average Yields:
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DCF Valuation
DCF Valuation
Terminal Growth (%) 4
Beta Equity 0.66
Debt Equity 0.86
WACC (%) 12.3
Enterprise Value Rs. 4267 Crores
Equity Value Rs. 3713 Crores
No of Shares 15.22 Cr. Shares
Value Per Share Rs. 244
Growth for the Next three years is assumed at 5.5%. Terminal Growth is assumed to be 4%.
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GE Shipping De-merger
Relative Valuation
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Comparable Company Profile
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Competition Analysis
Company Sales Mkt capPromoters holding D/E Beta
Essar Shipping 678.81 1438.02 47.25% 0.53 1.3
GE shipping 1934.77 3181.68 27.26% 0.86 0.6654
Mercator lines 621.86 613.01 43.08% 2.14 0.8464
SCI 3531.02 4433.52 80.12% 0.35 0.7122Varun
Shipping 642.93 875.18 45.29% 2.35 0.9184
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Comparable Multiples
Company EV/EBIDTA P/BV
Essar Shipping 8.41 0.67
GE shipping 4.37 1.33
Mercator lines 6.27 1.27
SCI 2.71 1.02
Varun Shipping 5.61 1.35
Industry Average 4.44 1.11
Price per share (Rs) 228 233
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Net Asset Value
•Depressed market prices and Rising asset prices have resulted in attractive Price/NAV prices. Buying into this sector looks attractive for an existing player
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Market Vs. Book & NAVMarket Price Performance Vs. BV and NAV
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
Mar-01 Mar-02 Mar-03 Mar-04 Mar-05 Mar-06 Q1 07
BV NAV Market Price
•The market price of GE Shipping has improved drastically viz a viz its Book Value and Net Asset Value.
•The Stock still trades at approx. 0.5 to 0.65 times its Net Asset Value.
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Valuation Assessment
• DCF – Rs.244• Relative range – Rs. 228 to 233• NAV per share – Rs.400• Current Market price – Rs.230
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GE Shipping De-merger
Investment Case for GE Shipping
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Strengths of GE shipping
• Largest private sector shipping industry
• Management has decades of experience
• Approvals from most of the Global oil majors
• Follows a blend of long term contracts and spot
exposure to reduce volatility
• Expansion plans in place to benefit from increasing
commodity trade
• Strengthening presence in the offshore business as well
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Strengths of GE shipping
• Rated as Asia’s third best company under a billion in
Forbes list, 2006
• Business Today rated it amongst the top 5 investor
friendly companies.
• Low leverage of 0.67
• Strong client base
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Concern Areas for GE shipping
• 60% of GE shipping fleet is single hull
• Exposed to inherent volatility in the shipping industry
– Cyclical industry
– Freight rates are highly volatile
• Offshore business yet to take off
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GE Shipping De-merger
Essar Shipping
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Essar Shipping – A Snapshot
• One of the world’s leading integrated sea logistics company
• Experts in transportation solutions for the global energy business
• Accounts for 14% of Indian fleet
• Owns country’s largest, double hull VLCC
• One of world’s largest owner/operator od Suezmax tankers
• Strong management team and consistent financial performance
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Essar – A snapshot
• Experts in transportation solutions for the global energy business
• Owns India’s first and largest double hull double bottom VLCC
• Internationally recognized player, with a majority of vessels on international charters
• End-to-end sea logistics company
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Essar – A snapshot
• Internationally recognized player, with a majority of vessels on international charters
• Has customers from rig to refinery and beyond
• Handles 5 mn metric tonnes of coastal dry bulk cargo
• Amongst the low cost operators globally with exemplary safety records
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Essar Fleet
Total Fleet (30)
Dry bulk carriers (16)
Tugs (4)Offshore units
Containers (7)Product
Tankers (7)
• Fleet valued at USD 415 mn (Rs. 1.9 bn)
• Fleet is modern, sophisticated, fuel efficient.
• Fleet is among the youngest in India with average age of 14 yrs compared to world average of 19 yrs
VLCC (1)
Suezmax(6)
Bulk carriers (7)
Mini-bulk carriers(7)
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Strategic perspective - Essar
Essar
• Leader in Offshore business
• Leader in logistics
• Presence in other segments as well
GE shipping
• largest private player with focus on dry and wet bulk segment
• increasing focus on Offshore through Greatship (India)
Importance of acquisition
• Essar strengthens presence in the highly leveraged and rewarding
• Offshore segment
• Essar gets an opportunity to diversify into other shipping segments
• with a significant scale and client base
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Essar – looking for opportunities
• Essar is already restructuring its business
– it is hiving off Essar Logistics & Vadinar Oil Terminal ( wholly
owned subsidiaries)
• It has pumped fresh equity worth 1500 cr to be used to
– repayment of liabilities
– expansion plans in power, steel and shipping
• GE shipping is certified by ISO – hence no compromise
on quality and safety standards
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In a Nut shell
• Essar is looking for investment opportunities
• GE Shipping has low book value and high NAV
• Offshore business has very high margins and is set to grow in India
• GE has growing presence in Offshore business
– Delivery of huge number of offshore vessels by 2009
• Current valuation of GE Shipping does not reflect the growth potential of its Offshore division
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Advantages for Essar
• Market share to increase from current 7% to 30%
• Substantial client addition esp. in the dry bulk segment
• Ownership of additional 41 fleets (excluding those yet to be delivered) which compliment the existing fleet composition
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Questions