DSL• Succession• Wildfire• Urban growth• Sea level rise• Climate effect on wildfire: A2, A1B, B1

SERAP• Succession• Wildfire• Urban growth• Sea level rise (DSL)• Climate effect on wildfire

(Coastal Plain): A1FI, B1• Recent fire suppression

Output data characteristics

• Decadal data layers through 2100• Polygons (average size ~10 hectares), converted to

30 m raster• Each polygon labeled with land cover type,

successional stage and structure• Available from NCSU Biodiversity and Spatial

Information Center• DSL: http://www.basic.ncsu.edu/dsl/downloads.html• SERAP: Coming Soon!

Contact jennifer_costanza@ncsu.edu

+100 years

+10 years+20 years+30 years+40 years+50 years+60 years+70 years+80 years+90 years

Landscape ChangeCharleston, SC

2001

LakeMoultrie

Charleston

Incorporates:disturbance, successionurban growth (SLEUTH),

sea level rise (SLAMM)

Using the data

• Land cover types represent mapped polygon characteristics

• Distributions of age and canopy structure across region match FIA data

• Best for summaries across regions or groups of counties

Example: Projected longleaf pine composition - 2100

• Model states are defined ahead of time, no surprises in characteristics of states, just their composition across landscape

• In vegetation dynamics models, effects of climate change are indirect:• Changes to wildfire regime• Define a new vegetation state based on info from

other models or data• Locations of vegetation polygons static through time

Caveats of modeling approach

• Integrates urban growth, sea level rise, vegetation dynamics

• Explore and compare alternative scenarios of landscape change

• Summarize changes across regions• Use as a communication tool to visualize results• Vegetation dynamics models used by DoD (Eglin AFB)

and VA Tech, US Forest Service, TNC• Good base layer, many more scenarios possible!

Strengths of data and approach

SALCC Introduction

Next steps and how the SALCC will use this product

Questions/Comments

Questions or comments from presentation about Jen’s presentation?

Questions or comments in general about the SALCC, what we’re doing, where we’re going, etc.?

Next SALCC Third Thursday Web Forum

Thursday, November 15 – 10:00am EST

Landscape Conservation Cooperatives and Climate Science Centers: An Evolving Relationship Jerry McMahon (Southeast Climate Science Center)

& Rua Mordecai (South Atlantic LCC)

Contacts

Ken McDermond – ken_mcdermond@fws.gov

Rua Mordecai – rua@southatlanticlcc.orgJanet Cakir – janet_cakir@nps.govAmy Keister – amy_keister@fws.govLaurie Rounds – laurie.rounds@noaa.govGinger Deason –

ginger@southatlanticlcc.orgJen Costanza – jkcostan@ncsu.edu