Gökçen Uysal1, Bulut Akkol1, Cansaran Ertaş1, Cihan Çoşkun1, Arda Şorman1, Aynur Şensoy1, Dirk Schwanenberg 2

1 Anado lu Un i vers i ty , Esk i şeh i r , Tu rkey 2 Un i vers i ty o f Du i sburg -Essen , Germany

DEVELOPING AN OPERATIONAL

HYDROLOGIC FORECAST

SYSTEM USING EPS AND

SATELLITE DATA

IN MOUNTAINOUS BASINS OF

TURKEY

Between Asia and Europe,

Turkey is a high-altitude country with over 25 river

basins,

including the trans-boundary Tigris and

Euphrates rivers.

GEOLOGY AND TOPOGRAPHY OF TURKEY (1)

GEOLOGY AND TOPOGRAPHY OF TURKEY (2)

SNOW POTENTIAL OF TURKEY

NOAA Web Site – www.noaa.gov

Hypsometric mean elevation is about 1130 m.

Snow is major component in the mountanious Eastern Part.

HYDROPOWER POTENTIAL OF TURKEY

DSİ, 2012 report

HYDROPOWER DEVELOPMENT OF TURKEY (1)

* https://www.hydropower.org/country-profiles/turkey ** IHA 2015 Hydropower status report, https://www.hydropower.org/

Turkey remains one of Europe’s leading markets for future hydropower development…

Turkey has plans for hydropower development over the coming decade with a total installed electric power capacity of

2002 32 GW 2014 64 GW 2023 100 GW

(with 30 per cent of electricity generation coming from renewables*).

In early 2015, the Turkish Government announced it would allocate USD 16 billion to hydro development until 2018 as part of its Tenth Development Plan**.

Hydropower development

In 2003,

In recent years,

HYDROPOWER DEVELOPMENT OF TURKEY (2)

will be further supported by Turkey’s interconnections into the European grid and potential for further linkages east into Asia.

Turkey liberalized its energy market and embarked on

a process of privatizing existing assets.

international private companies have made major

investments in the country.

Considering the geographic location of Turkey and

hydroelectric power potential, our R&D activities as well

as the future operational implementation will provide;

scientific outcomes,

economic benefits,

water resources benefits

also for downstream

stakeholders: flood mitigation,

irrigation, hydropower…

MOTIVATION FOR RESEARCH

KARASU (A PILOT BASIN)

Keban, Karakaya, Atatürk etc. large dams are located at the downstream of the basin

60–70% of the total runoff

volume originates during

snowmelt period….

Keban Dam

Karakaya Dam

Atatürk Dam

INSTALLED CAPACITY: 1 330 MW

ENERGY PRODUCTION: 6 000 GWh/year

INSTALLED CAPACITY : 1 800 MW

ENERGY PRODUCTION : 7 354 GWh/year

INSTALLED CAPACITY : 2 400 MW

ENERGY PRODUCTION : 8 900 GWh/year

Birecik Dam

Karkamış Dam

INSTALLED CAPACITY : 189 MW

ENERGY PRODUCTION : 652 GWh/year

CASCADE DAMS IN EUPHRATES RIVER

INSTALLED CAPACITY : 672 MW

ENERGY PRODUCTION: 2 516 GWh/year

In 2004, flood risk occurred due to sudden snow melt.

At the time, there was no real-time forecasting system.

Governmental agencies decided to (pre-)release additional 2,000 m3/s over 10 days from the most upstream reservoir through the cascade.

Post-event evaluation showed that too much water was released and lost for other objectives such as irrigation or hydropower.

FLOOD EVENT IN 2004 ??

Karasu Basin is one of the pilot basins selected for various;

NATIONAL PROJECTS

(DPT – State Planning Organization,

TUBITAK – The Scientific and Technological Research Council of Turkey),

INTERNATIONAL PROJECTS

(NATO SfP-NATO Science for Peace,

EUMETSAT H-SAF – European Organization for the Exploitation of Meteorological Satellites, Satellite Application Facilities on Support to Operational Hydrology and Water Management).

PREVIOUS EFFORTS

The ongoing projects and execution periods;

- Developing an Operational Hydrologic Forecast System using EPS and Satellite Data in Mountainous Euphrates and Seyhan Basins, TUBITAK Project, Oct 2013 - Dec 2015.

- Implementation of Hydrological Ensemble Prediction System, Anadolu University Scientific Research Project (1307F284), Dec 2013 – Dec 2015.

- Monitoring and Validation of Snow Components using Satellite and Automated Ground Stations, Anadolu University Scientific Research Project, Apr 2014 – Apr 2015.

ONGOING NATIONAL EFFORTS

THROUGH INTERNATIONAL PROJECTS

http://www.ecmwf.int/en/h-saf-and-hepex-workshops-coupled-hydrology

• TUBITAK project is extended through COST (European Cooperation in Science and Technology) Project (ES1404) "A European network for a harmonised monitoring of snow for the benefit of climate change scenarios, hydrology and numerical weather prediction" action,

• Moreover, preliminary DA results of H-SAF products (H-10, H-12 SCA and SWE) in cooperation with Duisburg-Essen University for Karasu pilot results are presented at the HSAF HEPEX WORKSHOP.

SCOPE & INNOVATION

It is aimed to deploy an operational hydrologic

forecast system in snow dominated mountainous

headwater basins in Turkey.

For the deterministic and probabilistic flow forecasts,

numerical weather predictions (WRF, ECMWF-EPS,

etc.) force hydrological models.

The main motivation and most novel part of this work

is the exploitation of ensemble forecasts for the first

time in Turkey within an operational hydrologic

forecasting system.

FLOW CHART PROJECT

FLOW CHART

Elevation zones

The Upper Euphrates Basin (Karasu) The main land-cover types are pasture, cultivated land and bareland.

Elevation range (m)

Area (km2)

Hypsometric Mean Elevation (m)

Slope (%)

Karasu 1125-3487 10275 1983 19.24

RECENT EXTENTIONS TO NEW BASINS

Seyhan

Basin

Euphrates

Basin

MODIS satellite image February 2012 (white areas indicate snow cover)

SEYHAN BASIN HAS DEVELOPING HYDROPOWER POTENTIAL

ex: water structures located in Seyhan Basin, Göksu River

CONTRIBUTIONS

Anadolu University

University of

Duisburg-Essen

Institut Royal Météorologique

de Belgique

State Hydraulic

Works

Turkish State

Meteorological Service

(TSMS)

MONITORING

Runoff for Upper Euphrates Basin

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

1-Feb

15-Feb

29-Feb

14-M

ar

28-M

ar

11-Apr

25-Apr

9-M

ay

23-M

ay

6-Jun

20-Jun

4-Jul

18-Jul

1-Aug

Dis

char

ge (

m3

/s)

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

Meteorological & SGS Point & SnoTel Stations

EUPHRATES OBSERVATION NETWORK

FP ID River & SGS Elevation

(m)

Basin

Area(km2) Obs. Period

E21A019 Karasu - Kemah 1123 10350 1953 -

E21A022 Murat - Tutak 1552 5882 1953 -

FIELD WORK

1-DAY LEAD TIME ACCURACY OF WRF RELATED TO GROUND STATIONS

EPS DATA FOR PROJECT CATCHMENTS

ECMWF produced 28 km/grid resolution (T639/N320) EPS data Total prec and mean air temp EPS data 6 x 10 pixels for Karasu Catc.,

4 x 6 pixels for Murat Catc. and 4 x 5 pixels for Seyhan Catch.

ENSEMBLE VERIFICATION SYSTEM (EVS) RESULTS

SNOW DEPLETION CURVES (SDC)

Upper Euphrates SDC (MODIS after cloud removal)

HBV (Hydrologiska Byråns Vattenbalans)

SRM (Snowmelt-Runoff Model )

HYDROLOGICAL MODELS (HBV & SRM)

(Lindströmet al., 1997) (Martinec et al., 2008)

HBV

Good at continuous modeling

More parameters

Low response to instantaneous melting

Does not require SDC (output)

SRM

Good at melting period

Less parameters

Fast response to instantaneous melting

Requires SDC (input)

WHY MULTI-MODELS ?

Through SRM Development

SRM DEVELOPMENT IN RTC-TOOLS

Model Inputs : for each zone, 1. Daily total precipitation 2. Daily average temperature 3. Daily snow covered area (Depletion curve) Model parameters (cr, cs, tcrit, RCA…)

Qn+1= [cSn* an(Tn+ Δ Tn) Sn+ cRnPn] * (A · 10000 / 86400) * (1-kn+1) + Qnkn+1

KARASU SRM MODELING

Ensemble Streamflows are developed for three

different basins (Karasu, Murat, Çukurkışla,

Kilicmehmet), using two different models for the

2011 melting period.

The next results are presented every 10 days

although the forecast is available daily.

Ensemble Streamflows are compared with

simulations.

PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS

UNDER DELFT-FEWS PLATFORM (WITHOUT DATA ASSIMILATION AND OUTPUT CORRECTION)

HBV

SRM

Spagetti plot

Quartiles

PERFORMANCE COMPARISON

HBV

SRM

ADDED VALUE OF FEWS PLATFORM

Import Data Module ( in particular for EPS and satellite data),

Grid processing (basin averages etc.),

Forecast Handling (pre- and post processing,

administration, storage, analysis, export)

Easy link with EVS for ensemble analysis,

Data Assimilation (embedding of MHE and several Kalman

Filters via OpenDA and RTC-Tools in progress),

Potential future use as operational platform (suitable to

transfer knowhow to governmental agencies)…

CONCLUSIONS AND OUTLOOK

Streamflow forecasting accounting snow accumulation and melt is a major topic for Turkey due to flooding and hydropower

Flood early warning may decrease inundation risk and related damages based on forecasts to take the right action

Flow forecasts assist the short-term operation of reservoirs and HEPP and increase their economic value

Potential for improvement in Numerical Weather Predictions (higher resolution, bias correction, etc.)

Data Assimilation and probabilistic forecasting are necessary tool to issue accurate and robust forecasts (further collaboration in H-SAF with Deltares and University of Duisburg-Essen on various DA approaches)

CONCLUSIONS AND OUTLOOK (2)

HBV and SRM models perform OK, but may have potential for improvement (further collaboration with Federal Institute of Hydrology, Germany and University of Duisburg-Essen).

Further work will also focus on the short-term management of the HEPP by the use of forecasts and predictive control techniques

Interdisciplinary work brings together staff from the government, private sector, academia providing an environment for sharing knowledge and creating beneficial results for all members.

THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION

gokcenuysal@gmail.com

This study is funded by

113Y075 TUBITAK (The Scientific and Technological Research Council of Turkey) and

BAP 113Y075 (Scientific Research Project) of Anadolu University, Turkey.