Drought Preparedness Planning:an instrument for drought impacts mitigation

Mohamed Bazza, Sr Officer, NRL

drought is the most complex but least understood of all natural hazards, affecting more people than any other natural hazard.

drought frequency and

severity increasing as a result of climate

change

drought definition

“significant deficiency of precipitation from "normal" over an extended period of time, resulting in a water shortage for some activity, group, or environmental sector”

drought should not be confused with aridity, water scarcity and stress, desertification, water shortage, etc.

Natural and Social Dimensions of Drought

MeteorologicalAgricultural

Hydrological

Socio-economic

Decreasing emphasis on the natural event (precipitation deficiencies)

Increasing emphasis on water/natural resource management

Increasing complexity of impacts and conflicts

Time/Duration of the event

passive management of drought as a Crisis

Source: National Drought Mitigation Center, Lincoln-Nebraska, USA

crisis management implications

- reactive, post-impact, drought has taken its toll- response: costly, untimely, poorly targeted, poorly

coordinated, ineffective- decreases self-reliance, promotes dependence on

government and donors, … greater vulnerability

Risk = Hazard x Vulnerability (natural) (social)

drought risk management

- pro-active, less damages for same drought level- response: less costly, timely, targeted/equitable, effective- resilience/self-reliance increase, sustainability

drought preparedness plan

set of measures and actions to be taken before, during and after drought with the objective of mitigating impacts and conflicts arising from drought

the plan of action is prepared before drought occurs

the measures and actions are taken by government, farmers, herders, fishermen, individual citizens, industry and others,

The measure concern priority, key sectors of the economy that are directly affected by drought (water resources, crop production, livestock, forestry, aquaculture, etc.)

cycle of disaster management

Components of Drought Risk Analysis

(social factors)(natural event)

A New Paradigm for Drought Management

1. Monitoring/early warning

Foundation of a drought mitigation plan Indices linked to impacts and triggers

2. Risk and impact assessment

Who and what is at risk and why

3. Mitigation and response (risk management)

Actions/programs that reduce risk and impacts and enhance recovery

components of a drought preparedness plan

1. Monitoring and Early Warning

Monitoring and early warning committee

A. Establish drought management areas

B. Inventory data quantity, quality from current observation networks

C. Determine data needs of primary users

D. Develop a drought monitoring system

F. Develop or modify current data and information delivery systems

2. Risk and Impact Assessment

Risk and impact assessment Committee

Task 1: Conduct a Drought Impact Assessment

Task 2: Rank the Most Pressing Impacts

Task 3: Conduct a Vulnerability Assessment

Task 4. Identify Risk Management Options (actions/activities to do for eliminating or reducing risk)

Task 4. Prioritize Risk Management Options (based on criteria agreed to)

Drought Task Force

Monitoring

CommitteeRisk Assessment

Committee

Working Groups

Assessment Reports

Situation Reports

Polic

y Di

rect

ion

Situ

atio

n R

epor

tsAssessm

ent ReportsPolicy Direction

Drought Plan Organizational

Structure

Checklist of Historical, Current, and Potential Drought Impacts

H=Historical C=Current P=Potential

Costs and losses to agricultural producersAnnual and perennial crop lossesDamage to crop qualityIncome loss for farmers due to reduced crop yieldsReduced productivity of croplandInsect infestationPlant diseaseWildlife damage to cropsIncreased irrigation costsCost of new or supplemental water resources

H C P

Economic

Checklist of Historical, Current, and Potential Drought Impacts

H=Historical C=Current P=Potential

Hydrological effectsLower water levels in reservoirs, lakes and pondsReduced flow from springsReduced streamflowLoss of wetlandsEstuarine impactsIncreased ground water depletion, land subsidence, reduced rechargeWater quality effects

H C P

Environmental

Checklist of Historical, Current, and Potential Drought Impacts

H=Historical C=Current P=Potential

HealthMental and physical stressHealth-related low-flow problemsReductions in nutritionLoss of human lifePublic safety from forest and range firesIncreased respiratory ailmentsIncreased disease caused by wildlife concentrations

H C PSocial Impacts

Impacts Actions AgenciesTriggers

Identify and

prioritize

What can be done?

Indices or indicators

Who is responsible?

3-DimensionalMeasures/Actions

e.g. Water Resources

Reactive

Short-

term

long-

termProactive

Approac

h

cate

gory

supp

ly

incr

ease

dem

and

red

ucti

on

impa

ct m

inim

izat

ion

sector

UrbanAgriculturalIndustrial

Recreative

Adapted from Rossi (2000)

Emergenc

y

Implementing a Drought Plan

- Legislation may be required for implementation

- Implementing agencies to includes activities of their concern into their work plans and budgets

- additional funds may be required to secure implementation by relevant agencies

- task force to monitor implementation through periodical reports; periodic evaluation

- Periodic updating of the plan may be necessary

- Final evaluation and review of the plan for the following season

Political will is the foundation of drought policy innovation

Integrated drought/climate monitoring is key to early warning, in parallel with a comprehensive decision support system

Drought planning, fully integrated with stakeholder participation, is critical to moving society from drought vulnerability to drought resilience

Drought planning must be integrated across spatial scales

Drought policy ‘guidelines’ are critical for adaptation to local situations, e.g., institutional capacity, sectoral impacts, vulnerabilities, resource constraints.

Key Messages

Thank you

Merci