Drought in Pakistan

LEAD Pakistan LDP, Karachi

3 June 2015

Brig. (R) Kamran Shariff

Outline:

• Setting the stage; • Drought prone regions and historical perspective; • Hazard risk rating; • Climate change and the meteorological perspective; • Drought situation 2014 onwards: water, food and agriculture, health

and livestock; • Drought governance in Pakistan; • Drought monitoring; and • Mitigation strategies

Definitions: • Drought is a slow onset disaster whose onset occurs as a

consequence of rainfall shortage but its impact varies in various regions consistent with the local environment, weather, soil conditions and host of other factors. Its impact, unlike other natural disasters, extends over considerable space;

• Variants: Meteorological, hydrological, agricultural & socio-economic• Drought Mitigation: structural / physical measures (appropriate

crops, dams or engineering projects) or non-structural measures (policies, awareness, knowledge development, public commitment, and operating practices) undertaken to limit the adverse impacts of drought;

Definitions:

• Drought Response: efforts such as provision of assistance or intervention during or immediately after a drought disaster to meet life preservation and basic subsistence needs of the affected population. It can be of immediate, short term or protracted duration;

Source: ISDR • Sustainable Development: meets the needs of the present

without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs. (World Bank)

Question:

Is drought a disaster situation warranting emergency response; or a developmental issue with a drought situation reflecting developmental deficit ?

Components of a drought policy

Sustainable development; • Water security; • Food security; • Livelihood diversity;• Environmental security; • Rangelands management; • Livestock management; Mitigation strategies; Emergency response management; Awareness raising and capacity building

Drought Actors:

• Federal Government: Planning Commission, WAPDA, Ministry of Climate Change, NHPREN, Ministry of Food Research, NDMA, PARC, PMD, SUPARCO;

• Provincial Government: Departments: P&D, Food, Health, Livestock, Forest, Agriculture, Irrigation, PDMA, Provincial Nutrition Cell;

• Districts: Relevant departments of the District Government led by the DC;

• UN Agencies: WFP, UNICEF, FAO, WHO, UNDP, relevant NGOss

Deserts / Rangelands:

Cholistan:

Drought prone regions of Pakistan: The Thar Desert: spread over 320,000 square kms with 85% in India.Pakistan’s Thar desert is spread over approx 50,000 square kms across Tharparkar, parts of Umarkot, Sanghar, Khairpur and Ghotki; Kirthar Range in Sindh: Spread over 25,000 sq kms, it extends into Jamshoro, Dadu and part of Thatta district; Rangelands of Balochistan: comprise 79% of the landmass. Include Central Balochistan Quetta and Kalat; Western Balochistan desert: Chagai, Kharan, Gwador, Lasbela and Kharan. Eastern Balochistan Zhob and Loralai regions; Cholistan Desert: 26,3000 square kms along Bahawalnagar, Bahawalpur & Rahim Yar Khan and the Indian border; Thal Desert: Bhakkar, Khushab, Mianwali and Leyyah between Jhelum and Indus; Issues: Overgrazing, water management, desertification, barani agriculture, poor services, weak environmental management

Droughts in historical perspective:

• Major droughts recur in 12-16 years cycle and lesser versions every 4-6 years in the vulnerable regions;

1999-2001 Drought: • Affected the entire country but Balochistan was worst affected

followed by Sindh; • 3 million pop affected and 2.5 million livestock lost; • 58 districts seriously affected, or which 23 were from

Balochistan; • Agricultural growth registered negative 2.5%. Losses estimated

at $1.2 billion; economic growth retarded by 2.6%;

Drought in historical perspective:

• IFIs assisted $ 360 million Drought Emergency Releif Assistance programme focused on emergency response, communication and water infrastructure mainly;

• Chronic water shortages negatively impacted on traditional coping mechanism;

• Livestock distress sale and increased morbidity and mortality; • High incidence of water borne disease and chronic and acute

mal nutrition; • Socioeconomic poverty

Hazard and risk assessment factors:

Baseline Factors: • Food and nutritional security; • Access to improved drinking water; • Fully immunised children 12-23 months; • Total 12 marksDrought Vulnerability Aspects: • Drought occurrence; • Exposure: % of population in drought vulnerable areas; • Drought impact. • Total 18 marks. Grand total: 30 marks

Present Drought Situation; Climate change aspect:

• There is evidence to suggest that global warming has negatively impacted upon the Pakistan's environment, like causing loss of bio-diversity, shifts in the weather patterns and reduced fresh water supply. Climate change trends are synonymous with climate variability in terms of flash floods and drought incidence;

• Prevalence of El Nino conditions;

2013 Summer Monsoons

2014 Summer Monsoons

October 2014 November 2014

December 2014 February 2015

Pakistan Plus 10% Minus 23% Plus 59% Minus 3% Minus 99% Minus 16%

Sindh Minus 21% Minus 78% Minus 94% Minus 48% Minus 100% Minus 74%

Balochistan Plus 11% Minus 33% Minus 42% Plus 10% Minus 100% Minus 42%

Punjab Plus 9% Minus 1% Plus 63% Plus 14% Minus 100% Minus 11%

KP Plus 13% Minus 32% Plus 173% Minus 19% Minus 98% Plus 15%

GB Plus 12% Plus 118% Plus 12% Plus 21% Minus 100% Minus 36%

AJ&K Plus 6% Normal Plus 1% Plus 1% Minus 100% No departure

Drought 2014 onwards:

• Water security in Tharparkar, Kohistan (Sindh), Cholistan and Balochistan;

• Food security and agriculture; • Health: • Livestock situation; • The Balochistan drought situation• Priority of needs identified by the communities: water,

livestock, health, food

Water security

1961-62 To 1970-71 1971-72 To 1980-81 1981-82 To 1990-91 1991-92 To 2000-01 2001-02 To 2010-11 2011-12 To 2013-14

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

132.83128.67

131.31

137.22

122.31 121.80

17.1612.54

7.02 8.26

1.695.02

Western Rivers Eastern Rivers

Period

Infl

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olum

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AF)

Health: Nutrition status 2014, < 5 deaths 2012, 2014 ;

Districts Umarkot Sanghar Kambar S Tharparkar Thatta Shikarpur Jacobabad Kashmore Badin Dadu

GAM 2014 25.3% 24.1% 22.3% 22.2% 19.2% 18.2% 13.% 13.3% 9.7% 4.2%

Districts Umarkot Sanghar Mirpurks Tharparkr Thatta Khairpur Sukkur Ghotki Badin Dadu

2012 198 441 234 318 59 436 1257 88 186 554

2014 259 592 314 587 203 356 1707 89 189 668

Health: < 5 deaths 2012, 2014; < 1 deaths 2012, 2014

Districts Umarkot Sanghar Mirpurks Tharparkr Thatta Khairpur Sukkur Ghotki Badin Dadu

2012 174 4083 373 245 99 1401 608 484 357 2124

2014 166 299 162 366 131 872 321 175 230 408

Districts Umarkot Sanghar Mirpurks Tharprkr Thatta Khairpur Sukkur Ghotki Badin Dadu

2012 160 3771 351 135 66 1365 332 412 216 17102014 161 50 127 144 56 848 43 125 178 95

National Drought Steering Committee

Provincial Drought Steering Committee

Regional Drought Task Force (DTF)

NDMA Drought Monitoring Cell

• Planning Commission (Lead)• Ministry of Water and Power• Ministry of Climate Change• Ministry of Food Security• Ministry of Finance• National Health Emergency

Preparedness and Response Network• WAPDA• NARC• NDMA• PMD• PCRWR

• Planning & Development Department (Lead)

• Irrigation Department• Food and Livestock Department• Health Department• Education Department• PDMA• Community Welfare Department• Social Welfare Department• Provincial Nutrition Cell

• Commissioner (Lead)• DCs• DHO Health• Livestock• Food Controller• Revenue Department• Social Welfare• Community Development Department• Forest• NGOs• Community members

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First RespondersVulnerable Districts and

CommunitiesDis

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Drought Monitoring: Issues • Meteorological and hydrological networks are often

inadequate in terms of monitoring parameters; • Forecasts often lack reliability on seasonal timescale and

specificity, thus restricting their use; • Drought monitoring systems lack integration, including

those of climate change, water and soil parameters and socio-economic to map the drought magnitude, spatial extent and potential impact;

• Drought early warning dissemination methods are lacking in reach to the end users, and thus do not support decision making at multiple response levels;

• Data sharing is inadequate between government agencies and research institutions;

• Drought impact assessment, monitoring methods are not standard. .

Drought Monitoring:

• Global facilities & regional networks; • In Pakistan, PMD Drought Early Warnng Centre uses Standard

Precipitation Index. Fortnightly and three monthly updates; • SUPARCO issues monthly crops situation updates. Uses

Keetch Byram Index; • WFP disseminates monthly market prices bulletin and

quarterly food security update; • Need for Integration; • Proposed integrated drought monitoring and response

mechanisms for Tharparkar, Kohistan (Sindh) and Cholistan

Drought Mitigation Strategies: • Addresses (1) water, (2) food and agriculture, (3) health, (4) livestock and

range management; (5) cbdrm; and (6) climate change adaptation;• Align mitigation with development, and emergency responses with

mitigation;Strategy development: • Sustainable development; • Sustainable consumption; • Institution building + governance aspects; • Reinforce structural capacity; • Promote integration and coordination; • Institutionalise research and capacity building;• Promote climate smart management.

Drought Mitigation Strategies:

Water: • Policy issues; • Supply side management; • Water demand management; • Ecological solutions; • Water governance; • Desalination • Emergency response management

Drought Mitigation Strategies:

Food and Agriculture: • Policy inputs;• Research and capacity building • Promotion of less water demanding crops; • Soil conservation; • Watershed management; • Water conservation; • Emergency response management.

Drought Mitigation Strategies:

Health and Nutrition: Reinforce needs based nutrition interventions; Reproductive health; Human resource; Access and outreach; Disease surveillance and responses; Preventive and curative

Drought Mitigation Strategies:

Rangeland Management: • Mapping of inventory building; • Measures for checking desertification; • Rangeland usage control; • Reinforce goverance aspects; • Promote communities inclusive management;Livestock: Veterinary support, planning for emergency support, emergency fodder solutions, community awareness raising and capacity building

Tharparkar Drought Response 2015

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Emergency FoodWater TankeringHealth outreach

Water Security/RO PlantsNutrition CMAMEcological Interventions (water)Livestock sanctuaries

Water infrastructureHealth infrastructure

Mitigation Actions

Infrastructure Projects

Emergency Response