Drought Assessment and Forecasting Drought Assessment and Forecasting Giuseppina Monacelli, Maura Abbafati

ISPRA Institute for Environmental Protection and ResearchDepartment for Inland and Marine Waters Protection

e-mail: giuseppina.monacelli@apat.it; maura.abbafati@apat.it

WORKING GROUP ON HYDROLOGYREGIONAL ASSOCIATION VI (EUROPE)

11th sessionToulouse, France, 25 to 27 March 2009

World Meteorological OrganizationWorld Meteorological OrganizationWeather, Climate and WaterWeather, Climate and Water

TermsTerms of reference of reference To review and evaluate meteorological and hydrological forecasting systems in RA VI countries with respect to droughts occurrence

To assess the use of satellite data in drought monitoring, assessment and forecasting

To identify ways of promoting the exchange of data and products, as well as of forecasts and warnings, during low flow situations

To propose ways for ensuring effective cooperation with other international and regional bodies involved in drought assessment and mitigation

To review and evaluate activities undertaken by end-user, in cooperation with NHSs, to mitigate the impacts of drought

RESOLUTION 17 (XIV-RA RESOLUTION 17 (XIV-RA VI)VI)

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EUROPEAN UNION27 Member States, 7 Candidate Countries

RA VI (Europe)50 members

REGION VI(EUROPE)

Med EUWI

In South & East Mediterranean: Algeria, Egypt, Jordan, Israel, Lebanon, Libya, Morocco, Palestinian Authority, Syria, Turkey, Tunisia.

In South East Europe: Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Former Yugoslavic Republic of Macedonia (FYROM), Romania, Serbia and Montenegro.

EU Ist Interim Report (2006)

IInd Interim Report (2007)

“Prolonged drought” towards a common understanding of the phenomenon and of its impacts (2007)

“Drought Management Plan Report” including agricultural, drought indicators and Climate Change Aspects (2007 published 2008)

DOCUMENTSDOCUMENTS

“Mediterranean Water Scarcity and Drought Report” (2008)

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EVENTSEVENTS

Medroplan WorkshopMarrakech (Morocco), 15-16 May 2007

Session “Planificacion y gestion de la Sequia”24 July 2008

European Day on Water Scarcity and Drought5 September 2008

Conference of the Water Directors of the Euro-Mediterraneanand Southeastern European Countries

Athens, Greece, 6-7 November 2006

Thematic Eionet Workshop“Water Quantity and Use”Copenhagen, Denmark, 10-11 June 2008

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Communication from the Commission tothe European Parliament and the Council

““Addressing the challenge of water scarcity and droughtsAddressing the challenge of water scarcity and droughtsin the European Union”in the European Union”

adopted on 18 July 2007

WATER SCARCITYDROUGHTS

Rainfall deficiencyTemporary situation

Insufficient water resourcesto satisfy long-term averagerequirements

DEMAND > SUPPLYDEVIATION FROM AVERAGE

Natural phenomenon Human-driven phenomenon

Exacerbated by mismanagementof water resources

Why a Communication on water scarcity and droughts?Why a Communication on water scarcity and droughts?

1. Increasing impacts of water scarcity and droughts in past 30 years

km

2

EU area affected by droughts in the last 30 years

EU population affected by droughts in the last 30 years

Mio

inhab

itants

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Significant increase in annual average EU area (from 6% to 13%) and population (from 6% to 13%) affected by droughts between 1976-1990 period and 1991-2006 period

Source: Member State data, Commission, November 2006

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2. Expected impacts of climate change and economic development

Source: Eurowasser study, University of Kassel

LowWater Stress

MediumWater Stress

SevereWater Stress

Water stress:withdrawals-to-availability ratio

Proportion of severe water stress EU river basins likely to increase from

19% today to 35% by 2070

Areas affected by droughts will increase

If T° rises by 2 to 3°C water scarcity would affect

1.1 to 3.2 billion people

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Water Framework Directive needs to be fully implemented

Address ineffective water pricing policies

Improve land-use planning and water allocation between economic sectors

Address waste of water and policy-making priorities

Integration of water-related issues into sectoral policies

Knowledge gaps need to be filled

What challenges need to be addressed?What challenges need to be addressed?

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What policy options have been identified?What policy options have been identified?

Putting the right price tag on water

Allocating water and water-related funding more efficiently

Improving drought risk management

Considering additional water supply infrastructures

Fostering water efficient technologies and practices

Fostering the emergence of a water-saving culture in Europe

Improve knowledge and data collection

drought risk management plans

observatory and early warning system on droughts

optimising the use of the EU Solidarity Fundand European Mechanism for Civil Protection

Improving drought risk managementImproving drought risk management

REPORT EDO European Drought Observatory

Drought Management Centrefor South-Eastern Europe (DMCSEE)

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Enhance and encourage research on technological activities under the 7th Community Research Framework Programme

Improve knowledge and data collectionImprove knowledge and data collection

Develop a water scarcity and drought Information System across Europe

(information on extent, impacts of water scarcity and drought issues description on the basis of agreed indicators)

Disseminate the results of research on water scarcity and drought issues

WMO Hydrology Network discussion forumWMO Hydrology Network discussion forum

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http://www.whycos.org/hnforum/index.php

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