driving smart railway solutions trends... · 2020. 12. 16. · 2020 digest, based on data from rail...

DRIVING SMART RAILWAY SOLUTIONS

KEY TRENDS

EKATERINA KOZYREVA

PRESIDENT, IEC INTERNATIONAL

UNESCAP CAPACITY BUILDING WEBINAR | SMART ROAD AND RAIL SOLUTIONS | 1 DECEMBER 2020

CONTENTS

RAIL PRIORITIES OF TARN MEMBER COUNTRIES

IMPACT OF COVID-19 PANDEMIC

SMART SOLUTIONS TO INCREASE POST-PANDEMIC RESILIENCE OF RAILWAYS

STRATEGIES AND OPPORTUNITIES OF INTERNATIONAL ORGANIZATIONS FOR TARN

FUTURE SHIFTS IN RAILWAY POLICIES AND TRENDS

Ekaterina Kozyreva | Key trends driving smart railway solutions | UNESCAP Capacity Building Webinar | 1 December 2020 2

MAJOR CHANGES IN RAIL TRANSPORTATION ALONG TRANS-ASIAN RAILWAY NETWORK

1. MAJOR CHANGES IN RAIL TRANSPORTATION ALONG TRANS-ASIAN RAILWAY NETWORK IN

2016-2020*


• North – South first agreements on

freight transit

New routes

New services

New alliances

New technologies

New initiatives

New hubs

• First connections Europe -

Southeastern Asia (Viet Nam)

• Baku – Tbilisi – Kars opening

• TITR enhancement with regular

feeder lines

• Opening of Marmaray tunnel.

• Routes via Kaliningrad

• Introduction of postal trains

1 for Southeastern Asia 1 for North – South 7 for EU - China

• Automation: coupling, driving, rail motorways

UTLC ERA, RZD Logistics – statistically key players in alliances**

• Integration and enhancement • Enhanced digitalization and digital ecosystems • Marketing initiatives (One million club)

• KTI rail corridor

**by number of announced agreements

• Piggyback transportation

• More than 35 new international connections in 2016-2020

• Federal programme for transport hubs

development in the Russian Federation

• Programme for development of major

logistics centres in China

*not considering specific changes due to COVID-19

• Tests of blockchain technologies for freight

• Transit of sanctioned goods with e-seal technologies

• Enhancement of border crossing

infrastructure and hubs in Kazakhstan

• Almost 3 times increase in transit volumes (2019 to

2016)

• Wide use of e-seals

• Transportation of fresh foodstuffs under

specific temperature conditions• Transportation of luxury cars

• Active developments in Western Asia

(notably Turkey)

1. MAJOR CHANGES IN RAIL TRANSPORTATION ALONG TRANS-ASIAN RAILWAY NETWORK.

FLOWS


RAIL FREIGHT FLOWS IN 2019:

MAP PREPARED BY IEC FOR CCTT

“TRANS—EURASIAN CORRIDORS”

2020 DIGEST, BASED ON DATA FROM

RAIL OPERATORS.

1. MAJOR CHANGES IN RAIL TRANSPORTATION ALONG TRANS-ASIAN RAILWAY NETWORK.

INFRASTRUCTURE


MAP TAKEN FROM UIC AND IEC STUDY

“EURASIAN CORRIDORS: DEVELOPMENT

POTENTIAL”, 2020.

THE MAP IS SCHEMATIC AND DOES NOT

INTEND TO REPRESENT EXACT

COUNTRY BORDERS.

2. RAIL PRIORITIES OF TARN MEMBER COUNTRIES


AZERBAIJAN

BANGLADESH

CAMBODIA

CHINA

I.R. IRAN

KAZAKHSTAN

KYRGYZSTAN

LAO PDR

MALAYSIA

MONGOLIA

MYANMAR

RUSSIAN FEDERATION

TAJIKISTAN

TURKEY

TURKMENISTAN

VIET NAM

UZBEKISTAN

THAILAND

based on the analysis of official national strategic documents, the list of priorities

may not be exhaustive

RAIL NETWORK DEVELOPMENT

INTERNATIONAL LINKS

SHIFT TO RAIL SUPPORT

SUSTAINABILITY

ADVANCED DIGITALIZATION

AND AUTOMATION

EXISTING STRATEGIES

DOCUMENTS DO NOT CONSIDER

COVID-19 CHALLENGES AND

POST-PANDEMIC REALITIES.

2. RAIL PRIORITIES OF TARN MEMBER COUNTRIES


RAILWAY NETWORK DEVELOPMENT

INTERNATIONAL RAIL LINKS

SHIFT TO RAIL OFFICIAL INITIATIVES

SUSTAINABILITY

ADVANCED DIGITALIZATION

AND AUTOMATION

establishment of traffic control system with basic digitalizationbasic interoperability and smart solutions for border crossingsuse of funding tools aimed primarily at financing construction and network upgradeuse of transportation modelling to understand the necessity for further developments

e-interoperabilitylegislative work to assure internal harmonization of solutionsuse of smart form of railway-customs interfacesuse of freight flows modelling to adjust the capacities of border infrastructure

all spectrum of smart railway solutions can be used as a part of modal shift policy

intensive digitalization, automation, e-interoperabilitytechnologies for predictive maintenancesmart technologies for international carriage (for all issues from maintenance tooperations)use of new types of financing tools (like bonds, venture investment funds, etc.).

artificial intelligence and machine learningdata integration and data-as-an-asset approachdata sharing and use of new distributed data technologies like blockchain

STRATEGIC PRIORITIES RELEVANT SMART SOLUTIONS

3. STRATEGIES AND OPPORTUNITIES OF INTERNATIONAL ORGANIZATIONS FOR TARN

8

ASEAN

EAEU

ECO

UN CRD

UN ESCAP

ADB

AIIB

ISDB

THE WORLD BANK

OTIF

CCTT

OSJD

UIC

Subregional intergovernmental



Multilateral intergovernmental

Multilateral intergovernmental

Development bank

Development bank

Development bank

Development bank

Rail intergovernmental

Multilateral non-governmental

Rail intergovernmental

Rail non-governmental

CONNECTIVITY BORDER CROSSING INTEROPERABILITY SUSTAINABILITY DIGITALIZATION FINANCING

Higher importance Lower importance Indirect financing (research and assistance) Direct financing

3. STRATEGIES AND OPPORTUNITIES OF INTERNATIONAL ORGANIZATIONS FOR TARN.

EAEU STRATEGIS ON DIGITAL TRANSPORT CORRIDORS

EAEU is working on a digital ecosystem for all transportation modes, based not on paper documents flows,

but on e-data flows only, where data are accessible for all participants, but are verified and cannot be changed without

consequences.

all participants can be

informed on the freight

flows in advance and during

transportation process

accessible verified information

which would be enough to

assure faster payments between

the participants of transportation

process

use of e-data instead of paper documents

or scanned documents (=>no need to

unify documentary forms = no need to

have separate customs and transportation

documents)

easier integration for

different countries, as no

language problem is

applicable for data

1 2 3 4The system is intended to

link authorities, participants

of transportation process,

public institutions and

customers.

It should also have

integrations with external

similar systems

4. FUTURE SHIFTS IN RAILWAY POLICIES AND TRENDS


RAILWAYS AS A KEY ELEMENT OF SUSTAINABLE ECONOMIES

NATIONAL AND INTERNATIONAL CONNECTIVITY AS A RESOURCE

ACTIVE SHIFT TO RAIL SUSTAINABLE TECHNOLOGIES NEW FINANCING TOOLS DATA-AS-AN-ASSET

MULTIMODALITYPHYSICAL RELIABILITY NON-PHYSICAL RELIABILITY CUSTOMER EXPERIENCE

trends

trends

railway

policies

(Europe

and

Asia)*

TWO MAIN PILLARS FOR THE POLICIES AND TRENDS OF RAIL DEVELOPMENT FOR THE UPCOMING YEARS.

THESE POLICIES AND TRENDS PRIMARILY DEFINE THE VARIETY OF APPLIED SMART SOLUTIONS.

* based on the analysis of (1) national and international railway strategies, (2) initiatives of international organizations;

derived from (a) quarterly sectoral media overview (~100-150 news per quarter), (b) UIC study “Eurasian corridors:

development potential, (c) CCTT TSR Annual Digest 2020

CHALLENGES OPPORTUNITIES

Unlike for passenger transportation, railway freight connectivity was

not hit by COVID-19 pandemic.

Index of topological connectivity (α-index) changed from 0.89 to 0.82

(while for passenger transportation to 0.60).

Railway connectivity proved to be an important factor for sustainability

of international economic links along TAR.

5. IMPACT OF COVID-19 PANDEMIC ON RAILWAY TRENDS. CONNECTIVITY

priorities and green lanes for

transit freight trains introduced by

many countries

high level of uncertainty regarding

further restrictions, decreasing

planning period for freight shippers

and all other stakeholders

asynchronous actions of different

countries and significant differences

in admission rules from country to

country

additional health checks for

personnel accompanying the cargo

through the border crossings (if any

necessary)

lower first and last miles connectivity

(usually assured by trucks)

railway border crossings having

less restrictions than road border

crossings, as in Asian countries

(unlike in Europe) normally the

locomotive team changes at the

borders together with the

locomotives

railways prove to be the most

sustainable mode to assure

international and national

connectivity thanks to faster (than

the sea), cheaper (that the air),

and less staff requiring (than the

trucks) transportation

11Ekaterina Kozyreva | Key trends driving smart railway solutions | UNESCAP Capacity Building Webinar | 1 December 2020

5. IMPACT OF COVID-19 PANDEMIC ON RAILWAY TRENDS. FLOWS

123%

73%64%

126%131%

217%

254%

135%

131%

105% 110%

182%

213%

0.0%

50.0%

100.0%

150.0%

200.0%

250.0%

300.0%

-

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

2019Q4 2020Q1 2020Q2 2020Q3 2020Q4 2021Q1 2021Q2 2021Q3 2021Q4

Euro-Asian rail freight transit volumes, TEUseconomic crisis + COVID-19 crisis

Euro-Asian rail freight transit volumes, TEUseconomic crisis

Annual growth, yoyeconomic crisis + COVID-19 crisis

Annual growth, yoyeconomic crisis

SHORT-TERM

Liquidation of undershipment

Growth of demand on rail services

Asynchrony of services

MID-TERMRestoration of supply chains

Construction of new supply chains

Demand for fast, cheap and reliable transport

LONG-TERMPossible increase of rail share (up to 5% in

transit) under smaller volumes (than

previously predicted).

East – West – East disbalance due to

difference of traded commodities.Volumes modelled with TMF® software based on JP Morgan and ING forecasts as of April 1, 2020.

Figures show the dynamics and should not be considered as traffic forecasts.

IMPACT OF CRISIS ON THE DYNAMICS OF EURO-ASIAN RAIL FREIGHT TRANSIT


6. SMART SOLUTIONS TO INCREASE POST-PANDEMIC RESILIENCE OF RAILWAYS. DECISION-MAKING

Special thanks for infographic templates to www.presentationgo.com

345 345

528

247

84

632

2018 2030

Decrease in total transportation priceBorder crossing procedures optimization (all stations)Railing acceleration (Trans-Siberian case)Trade growth (optimistic scenario)2018 Base

e-in

tero

per

abili

ty

inte

rop

erab

ility

35%

42%

THE BEST RAIL CASE

(OPTIMAL) OPTIONS

x 5.3

INPUT OF VARIOUS FACTORS IN EURO-ASIAN RAIL FREIGHT TRAFFIC 2030,

OPTIMAL CASE FORECAST*

*DATA FROM UIC AND IEC STUDY “EURASIAN CORRIDORS: DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL”, 2020.

1. FACTORS NOT RELATED TO TRADE MAY HAVE

A LARGER IMPACT ON INLAND TRANSPORTATION

Reliability

Interoperability

Resilience

2. TRADE DYNAMICS STILL DEFINES HOW (AND

WHETHER) OTHER FACTORS WILL WORK

Transport analysis

based on economic one

Analysis by commodities

Test of solutions (services)

directions of immediate

investments

(focus on digital solutions)

directions of research and

applied studies

(focus on modelling)

directions of cooperation

(focus on connectivity as a

resource for sustainable

economy)

3. COORDINATED ACTIONS AT PRESENT WILL

DEFINE THE FUTURE OF EURO-ASIAN RAILWAYS

Synchronous actions

Rail marketing initiatives

Joint strategies


More information on

modelling tool can be

found here


6. SMART SOLUTIONS TO INCREASE POST-PANDEMIC RESILIENCE OF RAILWAYS.

DECISION-MAKING

IN THE PERIOD OF HIGH UNCERTAINTY, COMBINED ECONOMIC AND TRANSPORTATION MODELING

(TRANSPORTATION DATA + VARIABLE MACROECONOMIC MACROECONOMIC SCENARIOS) CAN BE RECOMMENDED

AS A SMART DECISION-MAKING SOLUTIONS.

WHY?o to define top and bottom of capacity and financial results

o to test various options

o to prioritize limited investments

o to choose best options for national and regional economies based on effects from rail

projects

WHAT IS NECESSARY TO SET UP A MODEL?o graph of transportation network (GIS is preferrable) with basic features like transportation speed;

o historic trade data;

o trade forecast (may be automated)

o historic data for the transportation network: existing and previously existing flows, allocation by routes

o transportation tariffs and prices (market prices)

IN ADDITION, MODELLING IS A SOLUTIONo TO IMPROVE COLLECTION OF STATISTICS

o TO AUTOMATE DATA COLLECTION ON A

STATE LEVEL

o TO DECREASE SUBJECTIVE IMPACT ON

RESULTS



1. Infrastructure

• Acceleration of the Trans-Siberian (7 days)

2. Technologies and data transfer

3. Routes

• Construction of Rail Baltica 1435mm line

• Upgrade of border-crossing infrastructure in Poland

• Reach of capacity limits at Polish border-crossings

• Development of Baltic ports with launches

of new feeder lines

• Launch of the Trans-Korean Rail (with link to

the Trans-Siberian)

• Regular feeders from Japan and the Republic

of Korea

• New China – Russian Far East border-

crossing and route (Primorye)

• Acceleration of border-crossings and changes in

procedures of gauge changes

• 100% use of CIM / SMGS consignment

• E-data exchange between customs and railways;

unified data transfer principles between railways

4. Economic changes

• Decrease of rail subsidies in China.

• Price reduction outside China.

+247

+6

No No

No

+11

-60

+19

+51

+74

-442

+632*

* with acceleration

Reach of capacity

limits

Major negative factors for

rail transit

Major positive factors for

rail transitInhibiting factors

changes in allocation

of rail freight flows by

routes

Modelled with TMF software.

UIC and IEC study “Eurasian corridors: development potential”

ECONOMIC+TRANSPORTATION MODELLING ALLOWS DEFINING

KEY IMPACTING FACTORS AND THEIR LINKS AND SETTING UP

STRATEGIC AND INVESTMENT PRIORITIES.



A GREAT ADVANTAGE OF COMBINED ECONOMIC AND TRANSPORTATION MODELLING IS CONSIDERATION OF THE IMPACT OF RAIL

ENHANCEMENTS AND SPECIFIC SOLUTIONS (INFRASTRUCTURAL, TECHNOLOGICAL, OPERATIONAL) ON ECONOMIC GROWTH

AND ECONOMIC RESILIENCE OF COUNTRIES AND REGIONS.

Western

Europe

Central and

Eastern Europe

China

Northern

Europe

Southern

Europe

Central

Asia

South-

Eastern Asia

OthersRepublic

of Korea

+24,4

EXAMPLE: EUROPEAN AND ASIAN EXPORTS GROWTH BY REGIONS THANKS TO RAIL ENHANCEMENTS IN TRANSIT ONLY, M TONS 833

Total in 2030: 808

no-change, baseline economic scenario

best rail case

Modelled with TMF™ software.

UIC and IEC study “Eurasian

corridors: development

potential”

Best rail case: baseline macroeconomic scenario, Chinese subsidies present, acceleration of the Trans-Siberian Railway to 7 days,

acceleration of all border crossing procedures to 3 hrs for all crossings, 100% use of CIM/SMGS consignment, price reduction by

20%.

INTERMODALITY AND

CUSTOMER RELATIONS

Electronic sales

Single window

Tracking applications

MAINTENANCE, SAFETY, SECURITYPredictive maintenance

On the go data on cargo state (containers)

Drones

Energy-efficient LED systems

Energy recuperation and resource reuse

ROLLING STOCKAutomation of train driving

Fuel cells and hydrogen trains

Battery trains

Hybrid trains

TRAFFIC OPERATIONS

Automation of terminals

Automated traffic management systems

Estimated time of arrival

Interoperability

E-interoperability

BORDER CROSSINGBogies change at one side

Combined (joint) control procedures

E-data interchange between railways and border agencies

E-seals with customs information

Non-intrusive inspections

Non-stop border crossing

Standard time targets

Simultaneous scheduled transshipment

Use of combined rail consignment as customs documents

Data

integration

Digital

ecosystems

AI and machine

learning

Smart sensors

Blockchain

Satellite data

GIS

Transportation

modeling

MULTI-USE TOOLS AND TECHNOLOGIES DECISION-MAKING TOOLS APPLICABILITY TYPE OF SOLUTIONS

RECOMMENDED FOR USE DURING COVID-19

PANDEMIC AND AT RECOVERY PHASENational

International

International

and national

Technological

Institutional

Mixed

SOLUTIONS AIMED AT

ENVIRONMENTAL SUSTAINABILITY

6. SMART SOLUTIONS (CHART)

Special thanks for infographic templates to www.presentationgo.com

SCAN FOR MORE INFORMATION

ON MODELLING

THANK YOU FOR YOUR KIND ATTENTION!

EKATERINA KOZYREVA

PRESIDENT, IEC INTERNATIONAL

[email protected]

driving smart railway solutions trends... · 2020. 12. 16. · 2020 digest, based on data from rail...

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