IMPACT OF DROUGHT ON PASTORALIST’S LIVELIHOOD, THEIR PREVIOUS AND CURRENT

COPING STRATEGIES:

IN

THE CASE OF DENAN DISTRICT, OF SHABELE ZONE, SOMALI REGIONAL STATE, ETHIOPIA

M.Sc. Thesis Research Proposal Submitted

By

MOAHMED ABDIKADIR AHMED

Major Advisor:Dr Belayneh Ayele (PhD)

1. Co-advisor: Kindie Gebeyehu(MSc.)

July 2015

BahirDar, Ethiopia

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Table of ContentsABBREVIATIONS /ACRONYMS............................................................................................................ii

LIST OF FIGURES....................................................................................................................................iii

LIST OF TABLES...................................................................................................................................... iv

1. INTRODUCTION....................................................................................................................................1

1.1. BACKGROUND...............................................................................................................................1

1.2. STATEMENT OF THE PROBLEMS........................................................................................4

1.3. SIGNIFICANCE AND SCOPE OF THE STUDY....................................................................5

1.4. OBJECTIVE OF THE STUDY...................................................................................................5

1.4.1. GENERAL OBJECTIVE.....................................................................................................5

1.4.2. SPECIFIC OBJECTIVES....................................................................................................6

2. LITERATURE REVIEW....................................................................................................................6

2.1. What is Drought............................................................................................................................6

2.2. What is the Impact of drought.....................................................................................................7

2.3Concepts of vulnerability ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------10

2.4 Drought management strategy -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------12

2.5 Coping Mechanisms to Drought Impacts ------------------------------------------------------------------------12

3. MATERIALS AND METHODS......................................................................................................16

3.1. DESCRIPTION OF THE STUDY AREA................................................................................16

3.2 DATA TYPES, SOURCES AND METHOD OF COLLECTION..........................................19

3.2.1. DATA TYPE AND SOURCES...............................................................................................19

3.2.2. METHOD OF COLLECTION...............................................................................................19

3.2. SAMPLING PROCEDURE AND SAMPLE SIZE.................................................................20

3.4. METHOD OF DATA ANALYSIS................................................................................................21

3.5 RESEARCH EXPECT OUTCOME..............................................................................................22

4. WORK PLAN AND BUDGET SCHEDULE...................................................................................22

4.1. WORK PLAN.................................................................................................................................22

4.2. RESEARCH BUDGET AND LOGISTICS..............................................................................23

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ABBREVIATIONS /ACRONYMS

DPPB Disaster Prevention and Preparedness Bureau

ESNRS Ethiopian Somali National Regional State

FAO Food Agricultural Organization

FGD Focus Group Discussion

GHA Great Horn of Africa

IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

KM Kilo Miter

Km2 Kilo Miter Square

NGO Non-governmental Organization

OWDA Ogaden Welfare and Development Association

SC-UK Save the Children United Kingdom

PAs Peasant Associations

SPSS Statistical package for social science

SRS Somali Regional State

WCDP World Conference on Disaster Prevention

ii

LIST OF FIGURES

Figure 1: Conceptual frame work for sustainable pastoral livelihood...................................14

Figure 2: Map of the Study Area................................................................................................15

iii

LIST OF TABLES

Table 1: Work Plan Schedule.....................................................................................................21

Table 2: Stationary costs.............................................................................................................22

Table 3: Transport and per diem expenses...............................................................................22

Table 4: Miscellaneous expenses................................................................................................23

Table 5: Total budget summary of the study............................................................................23

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1. INTRODUCTION

1.1. BACKGROUND

Pastoralism and pastoral production systems support 100–200 million people globally and

cover 41% of the Earth surface. This production system world over has evolved in dry land

areas of the planet, which constitute some of the harshest and remotest places on earth

(Oxfam, 2002). Drought has been a frequent phenomenon in these pastoral areas in recent

years and is one of the most inhibiting factors in pastoral and agro-pastoral production

systems in Africa. According to Hesse and MacGregor (2006), ‘Pastoralists have highly

effective coping and recovery strategies to ensure resilience to risk.

In East Africa and by extension, the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA), pastoralism is one of

the most important economic activities from which millions of people derive their

livelihoods. Pastoralists in this region keep a significant part of their wealth in form of

livestock. For example, out of the total population, pastoral and agro-pastoral populations

are about 60% in Somalia; 33% in Eritrea; 25% in Djibouti; 20% in Sudan and 12-15% in

Ethiopia (Coppock, 2005) and quoted in (Ahmed et al., 2001).

Drought is one of the most inhibiting factors in pastoral and agro-pastoral production

systems in the Horn of Africa. It has had important implications on the predicaments of

pastoral and agro-pastoral households and their ' responses to its various phases(Birch

2001).Drought is the most persistent and comprehensive risk that pastoralists face to their

lives and livelihoods, but the people of the Horn have adapted their way of life over many

centuries to cope with erratic rainfall – moving with their animals across vast distances,

negotiating access to pasture with neighboring clans, establishing sophisticated trading

systems that provide access to lucrative markets in the Gulf states while spreading risk

among numerous market agents. As a result, pastoralists and traders in the Horn of Africa,

despite being politically marginalized and living in a highly vulnerable drought- and

conflict- prone region, have become relatively wealthy (Stephen 2006)

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Ethiopia is a country of ecological and economic extremes. The central highlands, where

altitudes rise to above 4000m are surrounded by an apron of semi-arid lowlands, where

altitudes are often not much above sea level (see map of pastoral areas). The overwhelming

majority of the population of 55 million is rural. Most of these live in the highlands. This

high concentration of population on little over 40 percent of the land reflects the close

relationship between physiography, climate, economy and population distribution. The

average population density in the highlands is more than eight times that of the lowlands.

Food insecurity in Ethiopia has left many people in need of emergency assistance. Many of

those in need are pastoralists or agro-pastoralists in the country’s southern and south-

eastern Oromiya and Somali regions whose livelihoods depend on the fertility of the land

and the health of their livestock, both of which have been seriously compromised

(MDRET001).

In the past decades, the growth rate of agriculture sector in Ethiopia has lingered behind

the rate of population growth; and as a result, to support the demand of its population, the

country has become one of the net importers of agricultural products and lined along with

the major food aid recipients in Africa. Between 1980 and 1997, for instance, the annual

population growth was around 3 percent per annum, whereas cereal crop production grew

at a rate of only 0.9 percent per annum, indicating the declining food per capita, increasing

food insecurity and worsening poverty (Bewket, 2003) Between 1994 and 2007, the

population grew at an annual average rate of 2.6 percent, and projected to around 120

million by the year 2025 (Goldstone, 2007). Owing the above-mentioned facts and the high

sensitivity of Ethiopian agro-ecosystem to rainfall (Fraser, 2007) and low adaptive capacity

to respond to damages, even a week delays of rains had a large impact on livestock and

crop yield and on the overall socio-economic activity of the country.

The Ethiopian Somali National Regional State (ESNRS), with a population of around 5

million, depends very heavily on natural rains. Nearly 85% of the people living in this

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regional state are pastoralists and subsist through herding of livestock. For more than 30

months rain has been poor and intermittent, placing the herds in danger and diminishing

the resources of a population who have only limited coping mechanisms in the best of

times. Because of erratic rainfall and poor pasture most of the pastoral people and their

herds are now moving long distances in search of grazing (DPPA 2007). In 1999–2000 and

again in 2004, Somali Region in southeastern Ethiopia was struck by severe droughts that

resulted in numerous deaths of people and livestock, as well as the destitution and

displacement of many pastoralist families.A more fundamental question, however, is

whether the adaptation mechanisms that pastoralists have evolved in response to the

predictable threat of drought are collapsing, and what factors are increasing their

livelihood vulnerability (Stephen D 2006)

Somali Regional State (SRS) is one of the nine states that make up the federal democratic

republic. It is located in the south eastern part of Ethiopia bordering Kenya, Somalia, and

Djibouti. It consists of nine administrative zones and 68 woredas (or districts). The region

is geographically the second largest regional state in Ethiopia. Somali region is one of the

wealthiest states in terms of natural resource endowments, with three all-seasonal rivers

flowing through it and huge fertile land; it has the largest livestock resource compared to

any other region in the country as well as potential for fossil fuel and mineral deposits.

Paradoxically, it is one of the least developed sate with a high proportion of its population

being poor and frequently faced with high food insecurity (Salayman, OWDA 2011).

Pastoralism is the foundation of the local economy and the basis for the attainment of

livelihoods for an overwhelming part of the population of the region. Rainfall is often

insufficient and erratic in nature, and this limits both the potential for livestock and crop

production. Continuous degradation of environmental resources worsened by consecutive

droughts has diminished available pastoral resources in many areas of the Somali Region

(Salayman, OWDA 2011). As a result of these difficulties, the poor households in the region

are therefore frequently unable to meet their basic food requirements and often need

humanitarian assistance (SCUK/DPPB livelihood baseline studies 2004/05)

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1.2. STATEMENT OF THE PROBLEMS

Pastoral production system in Ethiopia and elsewhere in Eastern Africa is said to be under

a critical situation in the sense that it has become unable to Support the basic needs of

people whose very survival is strongly linked to the performance of this sector. This dismal

performance is attributed to several interrelated factors including population growth,

recurrent drought, conversion of rangelands into other uses, weak governance, increasing

insecurity, political and economic marginalization, policy and program related constraints

to mention but a few (Kashay et ai., 1998; Mkutu 2001). Consequently, pastoralists in the

Hom of Africa sub- region have long suffered from natural and manmade calamities

including drought, political isolation, conflict as a result of competition for natural

resources and falling levels of per capita income. In addition, inappropriate aid and

development policies continue to affect pastoralists throughout the region (Toulmin and

Moorhead 1993;/Helland 1997)

One consequence of recurrent droughts in rapid succession is that “poverty ratchets” are

set up, especially in pastoralist households, which need longer to rebuild herds and flocks

than farmers need to return to “normal” harvests. Livestock traders also suffer from this

Currently, there are many parts of Ethiopia, which are highly affected by drought which is

historically said to be drought-prone areas. Little attention is given by government and

other non-government organizations for such areas despite they have been repeatedly

affected by drought. Because the level of information/data and knowledge on such areas’

vulnerability to drought impact is very low and the attention of most researcher is towards

drought-prone areas (Defferew Kebebe 2011).

Denan Woreda is known for recurring drought that makes access one of the major

livelihood concern, for human consumption (drinking, cooking, washing), livestock

consumption (watering animals), and crop production. Farming and livestock rearing are

considered the key local economy and basis for attainment of livelihoods. Shortage and

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erratic rainfall affect the overall livelihood of the pastoral ans agro-pastoral communities

living defectively in Denan.There are generally quite some studies conducted on the topic

“impact of drought on the pastoralist’s livelihood and there coping mechanisms” however,

the studies were only focusing on the impact of drought and the pastoralist coping

mechanism, without considering the comparison of the past and present coping

mechanisms thus, leaving aside the fading pastoralist coping strategies and why they are

declining. Therefore, this study will exceptionally explore declining pastoralist coping

mechanism by comparing the previous and current coping techniques as the study will

research the overall impact of drought on pastoralist livelihood.

1.3. SIGNIFICANCE AND SCOPE OF THE STUDY

This study is considered important as it will come up with relevant findings and

information that will be used for future policy decision and development interventions.

Most importantly, the study will provide relevant information about the socio-economic

impact of drought on pastoralist in Denan Woreda. Likewise, the study is demanded by

the identification of key coping and adaptive strategies, which might be supported,

modified or enhanced to develop long-term drought management systems.

1.4. OBJECTIVE OF THE STUDY

1.4.1. GENERAL OBJECTIVE

The general objective of the research is to assess the impact of drought on pastoralist’s

livelihood, their previous and current coping strategies in Denan district, Shabele zone,

Somali Regional State, Ethiopia

The main objective of the research is to draw the impacts of drought on the livelihood of

pastoralists, their traditional strategies to cope

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[1.4.2.] SPECIFIC OBJECTIVES

To explore the occurrence and extent of drought among pastoralists’ in Denan the

district of Shabele Zone

To draw the socioeconomic impacts of drought on pastoralist livelihood in Denan the

district

To explore pastoralist’s previous and current coping mechanism from the impact of

to enable them to withstand the impact of the drought.

1.5. RESEARCH QUESTIONS

The researchable questions that are critical to this research are as follows

[1.] How often and to what extent does drought occur in Denan district?

[2.] What is are the main impacts of drought on pastoralist’s socioeconomic in

Denanlivelihood?

[3.]

1. How do pastoralist cope and address the impacts of drough previously and nowt?

Compare and contrast previous and current coping strategies?

[4.]

Remark! Choose the word either socioeconomic or livelihood. Then be consistent!

2. LITERATURE REVIEW

2.1. What is Drought

Drought is an outcome of the reduction of precipitation received over an extended

temporal scope, which can be one season or more (Wilhite & Glantz, 1985; Wilhite &

Svoboda, 2000). High temperatures, high winds and low relative humidity can aggravate

severity of drought (Wilhite, 1999). Drought is part of the normal cycle of life in arid and

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semi-arid areas, where rainfall is low at the best of times and abnormally low every few

years. Pastoralist livelihoods are sensitively attuned to conditions of low and variable

rainfall. Droughts cannot be accurately predicted, but they are expected and pastoralist

systems are well adapted to drought cycles (Stephen 2006).

Droughts occur practically on all agro-ecological zones of the world and more than one half

of the globe is prone to drought each year (Kogan, 1997; Wilhite, 2000). Moreover, in-as-

much as it occurs in all climatic zones, its occurrence and impacts vary significantly from

region to region (Hisdal & Tallaksen, 2000). Notably, drought is more outstanding when it

occurs in potentially high and medium rainfall areas, while arid and semi arid regions of

the world are most vulnerable (Hisdal & Tallaksen, 2000). Drought is largely considered to

be a natural event. However, as argued by Wilhite (2000), its risks for any given region are

a product of both the regions’ exposure and the vulnerability of societies to the drought

event. Wilhite and Svoboda (2000) further expounded that, exposure to drought varies

spatially and there is absolutely nothing that can be done to alter its occurrence, while

vulnerability is determined by social, economic and cultural factors. These factors include

population growth, demographic characteristics, technology, policy, social behaviour, land

use patterns, water use, economic development, diversity of economic base and cultural

composition

2.2. What is the Impact of drought

Human activities are linked to meteorological, hydrological, agricultural and socio-

economic droughts highlighting the vital relationships that exist between human society,

environment and water. Therefore, any disruptions to hydrological systems, such as those

caused by drought, create a significant risk to human society and their social and economic

systems (Wilhite et al, 2007). Risk can be defined as the probability of harmful

consequences, or expected losses resulting from interactions between natural hazards and

vulnerable conditions. Thus, the magnitude and severity of drought impacts on social and

economic systems of any particular human society will be dependent on the underlying

vulnerability of the human population and particular region exposed to the event, as well

as the underlying climate and weather patterns that determine the frequency and severity

7

of the event (Wilhite et al, 2007).

Natural and human-made disasters have been experienced throughout history. In the last

three decades, however, both the frequency of their occurrence and the losses associated

with them has increased. The incidence and magnitude of disasters today is widely

recognized as posing a serious threat to the survival, dignity and livelihoods of countless

individuals, particularly the poor (Sara, 2009).

2.2.1 Pastoralist Livelihood Impact of drought

For one to understand how drought affects pastoral communities, it is crucial to

understand how their livelihood is affected by drought. Direct impacts of drought on

pastoral communities’ livelihood are the depletion of water resources and reduction of

vegetation quality and quantity. Constrained availability of water resources and pasture

due to drought that adversely affect livestock body and health conditions, milk production

and eventually livelihood security for pastoral communities, which principally depend on

livestock and livestock products (Sommer, 1998).

Although droughts affect livelihoods in rural areas most directly and immediately, since

livestock and crop production depend directly on rainfall, traders and service providers

whose business depends on rural incomes are also negatively affected, as they face declining

demand for their goods and services. Retail stores in rural settlements may loss income,

and several stores may force to get closed. Most businesses normally struggle to find

enough customers. Most of pastoralists who were buying food staff from them reduce the

quantity and the items of the food commodities purchased. Moreover, milk traders

complained declining supply during drought period, this would not only affect pastoralists

who are in this case milk suppliers but also milk exporters and milk buyers. This indirect

impact of drought on livelihoods has been labeled ‘derived destitution’ (Sen 1981), and it

has a leveling effect on most people in the drought-affected area. Drought makes people on

equal footing in term of poverty due to the food crisis remarked from household including

traders who are indirectly impacted by the drought, for instance by rationing food

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consumption and cutting back on non-essential spending – and there is not enough buying

power in those parts of the economy that are not reliant on rain. One group who suffered

the consequences of this coping behavior in 2004 were traders who sell cloth to pastoralists

(Stephen 2006)

Evidence indicates drought accompanied by environmental degradation is accelerating and

undermining the current and future livelihoods and food security throughout Somali

region of Ethiopia. Uncontrolled destruction of the environment is severely affecting all

productive areas, not only pastoral rangelands, but also productive agricultural lands. In

pastoral rangelands, environmental degradation is resulting from a number of factors,

including excessive tree clearing for charcoal production and exportation, lack of

rangeland management, increased sedentarization due to proliferation of berkeds, and one

of the worst prolonged droughts in recent times. In agricultural productive areas, it is due

to uncontrolled and accelerated tree clearing and charcoal production, invasion of foreign

weeds and noxious plants, encroachment of sand dunes, and increasing trends of erratic

and below normal rainfall (FSAU 2004).

2.2.2 Effect of drought on Access to water in Somali Region

Access to water is always a major livelihood concern in lowland areas, for human

consumption (drinking, cooking, washing), livestock consumption (watering animals), and

crop production. Perhaps because rainfall in Somali Region is very low (ranging from over

600mm in the north to under 300mm in the south) and variable, several alternative sources

of water are available, including rivers, ponds, boreholes, shallow and deep wells,

rainwater harvesting, berkad communal and private taps, and water tankers. Different

parts of the region can be characterized as having distinct “water systems”, which differ

for humans and animals, and also alter significantly between the rainy and dry seasons.

These water systems are best defined by how people access water during the dry season,

when water is scarce.In the most arid parts of Somali Region, notably in Warder Zone to

the east, people and animals are almost totally dependent on constructed berkad for their

water in the dry season. Most households in almost half of the region are in one way or

another birka-dependent. This dependence is especially acute during the dry season.

9

During the rainy season, more diversified sources of water are available, including ponds

and shallow wells that accumulate rainwater, but dry up when the rains end. These water

sources are preferred not only for their convenience, but also because they are free,

whereas access to berkad costs money (Stephen 2006)

2.2.3 Social Impacts of Drought

During drought times, water level goes down and springs and streams decrease

significantly and some even dry up. In addition to failure in crop production, sanitation

will loose attention under the prevalence of drought conditions. This is so because of

personal hygiene such as washing of body, cloth, etc. require the availability and supply of

water. The prevalence of drought forces people to look for opportunities for survival

including abandoning their home and migrating to camps where they see some temporary

help to rescue their life. Those who are unable to move or cope up with the drought are 24

doomed to perish. As drought persists human and livestock death toll increases

compounded by poor sanitation and deteriorating natural environment. On the other hand

drought shock increases the prevalence of diarrhea among the children. According to the

statistics of the Regional Health Bureau, 7,122 cases of diarrhoea in children were reported

in 2003 (drought year) in the whole region, an increase of 17 percent compared with

normal levels. The increase was attributed to water scarcity

In many parts of the region, the effects of drought on ecosystems have begun to

compromise the traditional livelihoods and lifestyles of indigenous peoples who depend on

them. The increased drought risks to agriculture, property, infrastructure, and ecosystems

are likely to have negative effects on health by impeding access to safe water sources and

sufficient food (FAO, 2007).

1.3 Concepts of vulnerability

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The IPCC (2007b) defines the concept of vulnerability as the degree to which a system is

susceptible to, or unable to cope with, adverse effects of drought. Vulnerability is a function

of the character and magnitude, of drought to which a system is exposed, its sensitivity, and

its adaptive capacity (WCDP, 2004; IPCC, 2007b cited in Mirjam, 2008) The WCDP

report, The Regional Impacts of drought: An Assessment of Vulnerability (Watsonet al,

1998), argues that the vulnerability of a region depends to a great extent on its wealth, and

that poverty limits adaptive capabilities. According to the Second Assessment Report,

vulnerability depends on the level of economic development and institutions. The report

argues that socio-economic systems “typically are more vulnerable in developing countries

where economic and institutional circumstances are less favorable” (Watson et al., 1996:

24)

2.3.1 Socio-economic Approach of Vulnerability

The socio-economic vulnerability assessment approach mainly focuses on the

socioeconomic and political status of individuals or social groups (Adger, 1999; Füssel,

2007). Individuals in a community often vary in terms education, gender, wealth, health

status, access to credit, access to information and technology, formal and informal (social)

capital, political power, and so on. These variations are responsible for the variations in

vulnerability levels. In this case, vulnerability is considered to be a starting point or a state

(i.e., a variable describing the internal state of a system) that exists within a system before

it encounters a hazard event (Allen, 2003; Kelly and Adger, 2000).

2.3.2 other vulnerability Approaches

Biophysical approach assesses the level of damage that a given environmental stress causes

on both social and biological systems. For instance, the monetary impact of drought on

agriculture can be measured by modeling the relationships between extent of drought and

farm income (Mendelsohn, et al., 1994; Polsky and Esterling, 2001; Sanghi, et al., 1998).

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Integrated assessment approach combines both socioeconomic and biophysical approaches

to determine vulnerability. The hazard-of-place model (Cutter et al., 2000) is a good

example of this approach, in which both biophysical and socioeconomic factors are

systematically combined to determine vulnerability. The vulnerability mapping approach

(O’Brien et al., 2004) is the other related example, in which both socio-economic and

biophysical factors are combined to indicate the level of vulnerability through mapping.

2.4 Drought management strategy

Drought management is a process of reducing and managing the impact of drought in

order to prevent it turning into a famine (Carney, 1998). “Management” is generally

defined as “the coordination of organized effort to attain specific goals or objectives”. In

emergency or disaster management, the term means “an organized effort to mitigate

against, prepare for, respond to, and recover from disaster”. Drought management has

four main elements, namely; Preparedness, Mitigation, Relief and Reconstruction.

Preparedness - This concept implies “planning how to respond in case a drought occurs

and working to increase resources available to respond effectively”. The rationale behind

this arrangement is to save lives and minimize damage by preparing people to respond

appropriately when a drought is imminent.

Mitigation – These are activities, which eliminate or reduce the chances of occurrence or

effects of a drought. This approach is based on the idea that much can be done to prevent

droughts from happening or reduce their impact. 35 Relief - The concept applies to

“activities that occur during and immediately following a drought”. Through proper

response, emergency assistance to victims of the drought is, provided.

Reconstruction – This continues until all systems return to or are near normal. Short-term

recovery returns vital life support systems to minimum operating standards. Long-term

recovery may go on for years until the entire drought affected area is completely restored.

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2.5 Coping Mechanisms to Drought Impacts

There is a rich set of local/indigenous strategies to deal with multiple threats, variability

and environmental change, but they are not sufficient for reducing the impacts of drought.

People normally rely on a number of different activities for food and income in addition to,

for example, agriculture. This diversification is common for most groups, whether

smallholder farmers, pastoralists, rural or urban workers or unemployed slum dwellers. In

particular, during droughts or floods when farming fails, farmers engage in a diversity of

activities. While sale of poultry and livestock, informal trade and casual employment are

coping strategies common to most areas of eastern Africa, the exact combination of

activities in which a household engages depends both on the options available locally and

the labor availability, education, skills, and access to capital of the household or individuals

within it. In addition to resource access, strong local links between and within social groups

and local knowledge of environmental processes are important for coping and adapting

(Eriksen et al., 2008).

According to FAO ITPDM, The most common coping strategies of pastoral livelihoods in

response to drought are long distance movement of livestock including crossing of

boundaries to other regions, opening of dry season grazing areas, importation of feed and

increased selling of livestock, as well as search for alternative sources of food and cash. As a

first response dry season grazing reserves are opened for grazing and plans for improved

use of grazing and water are established:

When grazing reserves are exhausted longer distances are covered by a few male

herders with selected livestock in search of forage and water. During the 1995-97

drought in Ethiopia, Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda it was observed that the

distances trekked to livestock water sources were almost tripled (from 6 km to 16

km) and distances trekked for grazing increased from 5-20 km.

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-Limited Early warning information- Lack of contingency - Unreliable intervention

-Low Preparedness- Low capacity to withstand hazard-Vulnerability

Effect-Loss of livestock and failure of crops-Shortage of water- Limited pasture and brose

Impact:-Malnutrition and child mortality -Conflict over resource that may cause death or displacement-Closure of schools

Drought

Livestock as well as people move to water spots and this includes also crossing of

boundaries to other regions.

Feed and fodder is imported from outside areas

Search for plants that can catch or hoard water

The most common strategies in response to drought induced reduced access to food and

markets are:

Selling of animals and purchase of food items (cereals) to preserve as

emergency food and to eat at once.

Slaughtering of few animals to preserve as dried meat.

Rationing of food and water is practiced.

CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK

14

NGOs and GOsIntervention

3. MATERIALS AND METHODS

3.1. DESCRIPTION OF THE STUDY AREA

The research will be undertaken in DenanWoreda, which is located 73km north of Gode.

GPS reading taken has shown the geographic coordinate (UTM) of 38 33375E and 07

2043N and average elevation 434 m.a.s.l. Denan Woredais one of the 9 Woredas in

Shebelleadministrative Zone of Somali Regional state namely: Gode, Denan, Adadlay,

Ferfer, Mustahil, Kelafo, Ber’ano,El-weyne and East-Imay. The Woreda is located in the

southern part of the region and obviously bordered by Korahei zone in the East, Nogob

Zone in the North and Gode in the South, with the estimated distance of 1160 KM from

Addis Ababa, and 538 fromJigjiga.

According to the CSA report of the 2007, the zone has a total population of 353,551 with

105,000 km2 land mass of which 95% is grazing land and the remaining 5% is of arable

land both irrigated and rain fed. This arable land is equivalent to 5,250 km2 and only 20%

of the arable land is under cultivation (SC-UK 2001). Denan district is divided into 5

development centers which are sub-divided in to 12 sub-centers, administrations (KA).

According to the Woreda officials, the total current woreda populationis 68,394 of which

55.6% and 44.4% are male and female respectively.

In Denan woreda, seasonal hand dug wells provide fairly dependable water sources but

salinity of the water gets deteriorated during dry season. There is also limited access to

sanitation facilities, which exposes the population to deadly water borne-diseases. The

recurrent water crises do critically affect children and women as the most vulnerable

members of the community. Livestock milk production has significantly decreased due to

poor rainfall. Besides being the main dietary source for pastoral children, milk is the major

source of household income and low yield seriously undermines the household purchasing

15

Figure 1: Conceptual frame work

power. During crises, families are forced to sell most of the milk to cover the overall food

requirements. This contributes to a fast deterioration of the children nutritional status.

Women in pastoral communities are equally affected by droughts, as they are obliged to

cover long distances to fetch water. This is harmful to both their productivity and health.

The physical stress of the journey itself and the time pressure for these activities increases

the burden of women to properly care for their children and to engage in income

generating or other productive household activities. Children and women become

separated from part of their family during dry season when the males move from place to

place in search of pasture and water for their livestock. During droughts, women can face

more severe consequences due to inadequate access to or control over livelihood resources

as well as limited decision-making power, formal education, mobility or livelihood options.

3.1.1 Climate

Climatically, the research area belongs to the semi arid zone. The total annual rainfall

ranges from as low as below 250 to 300 mm or a little higher with a bimodal rainfall

pattern and erratic distribution. As per the records at the Jijiga Weather Station, the long

term (> 30 years; 1974-2005) average annual rainfall is 275 mm while the monthly mean

and maximum temperatures for the same period 27.3 and 29.0oC, respectively. There are

four main seasons: Dayr (wet season) and Jilaal (dry season), Gu (Wet season) and Haga

(Dry season. Dayr prolongs from Mid October to late December where as The Jilaal starts

from January to April. One the other hand, Gu normally starts on April to June while Jaga

starts on July to September. Both rains are equally vital for cultivation and maturation of

crops but interchangeably one might be somewhat heavier than the other one. Drought is a

recurring phenomenon in the two dry seasons however, the dry season are prolonging than

usual and sometime causing total rainfall failure. Recurring drought and its related human

and livestock catastrophe that frequently took place generally in Ethiopia and particularly

in Somali region in the last couple of years (SCUK Livelihood report 2005)

16

3.1.2 Farming system

Livestock keeping and Crop production are the main source of livelihood pattern in the

area. Majority of the population living in Denan depend on livestock and livestock

products. Moreover, cereal products are grown in the area, which is considered crucial in

generating income.

3.1.2.1 Crop production

Denan dwellers are both pastoralists and agro-pastoralists that keep livestock and cultivate

crops. The main crops are cultivated during the rainy season of Dayr and Gu. Sorghum

and maize are the main cereal crops grow in Denan. The most important crops for

consumption are planted in April and households begin consuming green harvest in late

June and harvests in early august. The main crops cultivated during the Dayr rains are of a

short maturing variety, which include wheat, barley, Sorghum and to a lesser extent maize.

3.1.2.2 Livestock production

Denan district is a home for huge livestock and livestock owners. The main livestock reared

in the area are cattle, camels and shoats. In a normal year, pasture is regenerated with each

set of rains to make livestock feed available. This regeneration takes place within two

weeks of the onset of the rain. Thus, pasture is normally available from April - July and

October- December. Crop residues supplement this during the two key periods (Jilaal and

Hagaa). The first comes from the stalks of the short maturing maize crop (available from

August-September) and is given primarily to the milking cows and sheep. The second

comes from the crop residues from the second harvest. This is in two forms: (1) stocks,

which are stored as fodder during harvesting of main crops and (2) livestock are allowed to

graze on what is remained from the field after harvesting takes place. March is the most

difficult month in relation to pasture and fodder availability. During below normal year

livestock migrate to other grazing area (Mohamed 2010).

17

In below normal year of rainfall, those households with livestock will move to the closest

grazing areas based on clan preferences. Thus, Majority of the population residing in

Denan area migrates to the Nogob, Sibi, and Hoswayne Valleys for pasture and water.

These pastoralists normally compete resources with the hosting pastoralists residing in the

migrated area. In more severe situations, movement targets to the Southeast and across the

border into Somalia. Generally, the young and lactating animals do remain behind until

the situation requires moving with them (OWDA 2011).

3.2 DATA TYPES, SOURCES AND METHOD OF COLLECTION

3.2.1. DATA TYPE AND SOURCES

Date will be collected using both the primary and secondary method of data collection

sources. Both Primary and Secondary data will also have both qualitative and quantitative

data. Focus group discussions, key informant interviews and household survey will be

employed to get views of individuals, key community informants and households about how

drought has impacted on their socioeconomic situations, and their coping and adaptation

strategies.

Finally, key Woreda government officials in relevant government departments and offices

including Disaster preparedness and prevention Office, Livestock, Crop and Rural

Development, health, and education will be interviewed as key informants to obtain data on

implications of drought to pastoralists.

3.2.2. METHOD OF COLLECTION

In undertaking this research, both the secondary and primary data will be collected from

different sources. The relevant data from secondary sources will be gathered through

reviewing document available in concerned offices at regional, Zonal, Woreda and Keble

administration level. Published and unpublished materials, journals, archives, reports etc.

the primary data will be collected through Focus group discussion (FGD) and key

18

informants interview usingsemi-structured questionnaires and formal survey using

structured/ closed questioner. In collecting this information, the researcher will first expect

to undertakeinvestigation survey and personal observation, basically to take adjustments

for the excursion of methods and to in rich the overall data.

3.2. SAMPLING PROCEDURE AND SAMPLE SIZE

Selection of the study site is crucially identified through consultation with the key staff in

the Organization for Welfare and Development in Action and expert from the same field.

This study will purposively target three villages from the nine villages located out of the

Denan town. This is due to homogenous nature of the population in the study site. On the

other hand one out of the three villages in the town will selected. Multi-stage sampling

method will be used in selecting villages and respondent. The purpose of choosing this

method is to avoid bias to help the study ensure selection of representative. Households

studied will be randomly selected. Following are processes

Sampling stage one: One out of the three villages located in the town will be

selected by giving numbers 1-3. Only one will be picked from the three.

Three out of the nine villages out of the town will be purposively.

Sampling stage two: All the households in the selected three Villages plus the

other one Villagefrom the town will be listed in sample form. Each household

will be given number and written in piece of paper and then folded and put

in basket to thoroughly shake. Then 15 households will be selected from each

Village to have a total of 60 HH will be drawn for the study.

Comment:

1. I think drought affects the rural communities directly. Therefore, I suggest to avoid the

village in the city.

2. I suggest proportional sampling technique and distribute the sample households in all nine

villages as all of them are very close to each other. For example if the total house hold to

be consulted are 90, then from each village you will interview 10 household.

3. Use the following formula for determining the sample households. (Cochran, 1977).

19

4. no= z

2 pqd2

n= no

1+no−1N

5. Where: no = the desired sample size when the population is greater than 10,000.

6. n = number of samples size when population is less than 10,000.

7. Z = 95% confidence limit i.e.1.96.

8. P = 0.1(proportion of the population to be included in the sample i.e. 10%).

9. q = 1 - 0.1 i.e. (0.9).

10. N = Total number of population.

11. d = margin of error or degree of accuracy desired (0.05).

(

3.2.1 Sampling key informants and focus group discussion participants

Key informants and focus group discussion participantswill be the main semi-structure interviews held. The focus group number will be 6-10 participants. Key informants will be people perceived to have particular insight or opinions about the topic under study. In my study, the main criteria for selecting the key informants will be based on their extensive knowledge and experience of area with special emphasis on indigenous knowledge of the cultural practice related to drought and pastoralist’s coping mechanism. Experience of the participants has to reflect the current and the past knowledge and experience. Moreover, their presence in the study site is important. Composition of both focus group discussion and key informants are also critical. Moreover, data regarding to the current socio-economic challenges (resource endowments) and existing coping strategies will be gathered through field observation

3.4. METHOD OF DATA ANALYSIS

Qualitative analysis will be used as an ongoing process that will be conducted at all level

right from the field. During the data collection, field notes will be considered important

tool. After the date is collected, the field notes will be prepared and organized into

categories. Then development of coding the responses and giving numbers to the categories

will be the second step followed by data presentation in a narrative form.

20

Likewise, Questionnaire will be developed to collect data quantitatively. The data collected

from the questionnaires will be coded and entered into an excel spreadsheet after which

analysis will done using the Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS). Quantitative

data will then be subjected to descriptive statistics after which the results including

demographic information, household characteristics, and coping and adaptation strategies

used by the respondents will be summarized in tabular and graphical forms. Rainfall data

for the study area will be graphically presented as well.

3.5 RESEARCH EXPECT OUTCOME

This research will shade light on the socio-economic impact of drought on pastoralist in

Denan district and their coping strategies but will thoroughly compare and contrast the

previous and the current coping mechanism. What are the key factors contributing the

change. The study will also explore the effect of government and NGOs response on the

pastoralists coping mechanism. There are different researches and studies writtenon the

topic at hand however, this research will be different when it comes to the issue of

comparing and contrasting the previous ad current coping mechanism of the pastoral

community. The Socioeconomic effect of drought will be highly researched and the policy

makers see into and make decisions.

21

4.

4.

4.

4.

4.

4.

4.

4.

4.

4.

4.

4.

4.

4.

4.

4.

4.

4.

4.

4.

4.

WORK PLAN AND BUDGET SCHEDULE

4.1. WORK PLAN

Table 1: Work Plan Schedule

22

Activities

Date 2013-2014

July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb

Selection of the study

area

Selection of the kebeles

Proposal preparation

and Literature review

Proposal defense

Primary data collection

of the research

settlement survey

Data processing and

statistical analysis

Thesis research write

up

Thesis submission

feedback

Thesis submission and

defense

4.2. RESEARCH BUDGET AND LOGISTICS

Table 2: Stationary costs

S/N Description Unit Quantity Unit price

(birr)

Total cost

(birr)

1 Pen No. 2boxes 2 100.00

4 Clipboard No. 3 15 45.00

5 Box-file No. 1 30 30.00

6 File with fastener No. 4 8 32.00

7 Pencil/puncher/

Scotch tape

No. 14/1/1 0.5/40/20 67.00

8 Marker No. 3 8 24.00

9 RW Pkt. 1box 150 150.00

10 Flash disk No. 1for 4

GB

450 450.00

11 Note book No. 5 12 60.00

12 Laser Jet cartridge

(Toner)

No. 1 1500.00 1500.00

13 Printer paper Rea

m

6 100.00 600.00

 Sub total       2220

23

Table 3: Transport and per diem expenses

No Person No of

Persons

Duratio

n

(Days)

Payment per

day

Total

payment

1 Student (field work and

travel to kebeles)

1 45 150.00 6750.00

2 Enumerator 3 30 120.00 10800.00

24

3 Student ticket go and back 1 0 0 4015

4 Fuel for Adadlay to kebeles 0 10 0 13000

5 Driver 1 15 150.00 2,250.00

Sub total 36,815

Table 4: Miscellaneous expenses

No Items or service required Price (birr)

1 Photo copy service and telephone 500.00

2 Thesis binding 300.00

Sub total 800.00

Table 5: Total budget summary of the study

No Description Total Cost (Birr)

1 Logistics and Stationery 3,058.00

2 Per diem and transportation expense 36,815

3 Miscellaneous 800.00

Grand Total 0

REFERENCE:

25

Adger, W.N. et al.(2003). Adaptation to drought in developing world. Nairobi Kenya. Progress in

Development Studies, 3(3), 179

Adgolign, T.B. (2006) Theoretical and Practical Considerations for the Selection of Water

Harvesting Techniques: Case Study of Sasiga District of Oromiya, Ethiopia. UDESCO-IHE

Institute for Water Education

Bewket W. (2003) Towards integrated watershed management in highland Ethiopia: the Chemoga

watershed case study

Birch, I., and H. A. O. Shuria. 2001. Perspectives on pastoral development lll: A casebook from

Ethiopia and Kenya. Oxfam GB.

Coppock, D. L. 2005. The Borella plateau of southern Ethiopia; SYllthesis of pastoral research,

developmellt alld challge, /980-9J. Addis Ababa: International Livestock Center for Africa

(ILCA)

Defferew Kebebe. 2011. The Impact of Drought on Livelihoods, Vulnerability and Coping

Mechanisms: the Case of North Shoa Zone, Oromiya at Addis Ababa University

Fraser, E.D.G. (2007). Travelling in antique lands: using past famines to develop an

Adaptability/resilience framework to identify food systems vulnerable to climate change.

Climatic Change, 83(4), 495-514. Addis Ababa Ethiopia

Goldstone, J.92007). Flash Points and Tipping Points: Security Implications of Global Population

Changes, 2005-2025. Woodrow Wilson Center, Washington, DC, 26.

Hisdal, H. & Tallaksen, L.M. (2000) Assessment of the regional impacts of Drought in Europe.

Drought Event Definition: Technical Report No 6.

Kashaye B., Berhanu G., Medhin, S.E., and. Mohamed M.A. 1998. Development needs of pastoral

production systems in Ethiopia: Lessons learnt from ILRI’s research in some pastoral areas

of Ethiopia. Addis Ababa: ILRI

Oxfam, 2002. Evaluation Report of the Drought Mitigation Programme in Somali region, October

1999-March 2001. Nairobi: Acacia Consultants.

Sara (2009). Mitigating Drought: Policy Impact Evaluation A Case of Tigray Region, Ethiopia.

26

Sommer, F. (1998) Pastoralism, drought early warning and response.Available:

http://www.odi.org.uk/pdn/drought/sommer.pdf (Accessed in July, 2011)

Stephen Devereux of Institute of Development Studies 2006. Vulnerable Livelihoods in Somali

Region, Ethiopia. at the University Sussex Brighton BN1 9RE UK

Salayman, A. 2011. Enhanced Pastoralist Schooling Initiative (EPSI). OWDA. Jigjiga of Somali

Region, Ethiopia

Toulmin, C. (1983) Herders and farmers or farmer-herders and herder-farmers, ODI Pastoral

Development Network Paper 15d, ODI, London.

Wilhite, D.A (1997) Improving drought management in the West: The Role of Mitigation and

Preparedness, National drought Mitigation Center, University of Nebraska, Lincoln.

Wilhite, D. A. (2002) Drought preparedness in the sub-Saharan Africa context. Journal of

Contingency and Crisis Management.

Wilhite D.A. & Glantz, M.H., (1985) Understanding the drought phenomenon: The role of

definition. Water International.

APPENDIX 1: APPROVAL SHEET

BAHIR DAR UNIVERSITY

COLLEGE OF AGRICULTURE AND ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

GRADUATE PROGRAM

THESIS PROPOSAL APPROVAL SHEET

Submitted by:

27

Name of the student Signature DateMohamed Abdikadir Ahmed ____________________

__________________

Approved by:1. Name of Major Advisor Signature DateDr Belayneh Ayele(PhD) ___________________ _______________________________

2. Name of Co-Advisor Signature DateMr Kindie Gebeyehu ___________________ _________________

3. Name of Chairman, DGC Signature Date

_____________________ _________________ ____________

4. Name of Coord, Graduate Program Signature Date

______________________ ________________

____________

28