dr. stephen m. miller, director university of nevada, las...
TRANSCRIPT
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q Prepared by
q The Center for Business and Economic Research
q Lee Business School
q University of Nevada, Las Vegas
q May 30, 2012
1
Dr. Stephen M. Miller, DirectorLee Business SchoolUniversity of Nevada, Las VegasDecember 6, 2017
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Wisdom on Forecasting
2
? ???
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National Outlook
3
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4
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
Billion
sof200
9Do
llars
U.S.RealandPotentialGDP
U.S.Recessions RealGDP Forecast +/-2xSE PotentialGDP
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5
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
AnnualizedPercentChange
GrowthRateofU.S.RealandPotentialGDP
RealGDPGrowth Forecast PotentialRealGDPGrowth
Forecast
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Indicators of Economic Activity and Confidence
ú No Signal of Recession?
ú Ninth Year of Expansion
6
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Nevada Outlook
7
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8
0
50
100
150
200
250
Index
CBERNevadaCoincidentIndex
NevadaRecessions NevadaCoincidentIndex
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9
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
Index
CBERNevadaLeadingIndex
NevadaRecessions NevadaLeadingIndex
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10
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
ThousandsofJobs
NevadaEmployment
NevadaRecessions NevadaEmployment(SA)
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11
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
Index(100=1990)
Non-farmEmployment- SelectedWesternStates(SA)
U.S.Recessions Nevada Arizona California Colorado NewMexico Utah
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12
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
PercentUnemployed
NevadaUnemploymentRate
NevadaRecessions NevadaUnemploymentRate(SA)
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13
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
Percent
UnemploymentRate- SelectedStates(SA)
U.S.Recessions Nevada Arizona California Colorado NewMexico Utah
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14
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
Nevada Florida Illinois NewJersey Maryland Connecticut RhodeIsland Ohio Aizona U.S.Average
Percen
tPercentNegativeEquityMortgagesbyState
NegativeEquity
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15
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80Pe
rcen
tPercentNegativeEquityMortgagesinNevada
NegativeEquity
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16
1.9%
3.9%
0.0%
1.0%
8.5%
1.6%
0.5%
1.9%
3.9%
0.1%
1.7%
9.4%
2.7%
1.9%
1.9%
5.6%
-0.1%
2.8%
4.3%
3.6%
-0.2%
1.9%
1.5%
-1.2%
3.4%
25.8%
1.3%
2.4%
1.9%
6.3%
-1.0%
3.4%
5.1%
0.9%
2.9%
-5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%
NevadaEconomicOutlook
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
VisitorVolume
GrossGaming Revenue
SF+MF Housing Permits
Employment
Unemployment
Total PersonalIncome
Population
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Southern Nevada Outlook
17
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18
40
90
140
190
240
290
Index
CBERSouthernNevadaCoincidentIndex
SouthernNevadaRecessions SouthernNevadaCoincidentIndex
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19
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
Index
CBERSouthernNevadaLeadingIndex
SouthernNevadaRecessions SouthernNevadaLeadingIndex
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20
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017
ThousandsofJobs
LasVegasEmployment
SouthernNevadaRecessions LasVegasEmployment(SA)
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21
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
260
280
Index(100=1990)
Non-farmEmployment- SelectedWesternMetropolitanAreas(SA)
U.S.Recessions LasVegas Phoenix LosAngeles Denver SaltLakeCity Albuquerque
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22
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23
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
Percent
UnemploymentRate- SelectedMetropolitanAreas(SA)
U.S.Recessions LasVegas Phoenix LosAngeles Denver SaltLakeCity Albuquerque
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24
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
Index
ClarkCountyTourismIndex
SouthernNevadaRecessions ClarkCountyTourismIndex
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25
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
3,500,000
4,000,000
4,500,000
Number
ClarkCountyVisitorVolume
SouthernNevadaRecessions ClarkCountyVistorVolume(SA)
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26
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
Index
ClarkCountyConstructionIndex
SouthernNevadaRecessions SouthernNevadaConstructionIndex
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27
0
20
40
60
80
100
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Percen
tofH
ousin
gSo
ldTha
tIsA
ffordab
leatM
edianIncome
NAHB/WellsFargoHousingOpportunityIndex:MountainWest
SouthernNevadaRecessions LasVegas-Paradise,NVPhoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale,AZ LosAngeles-LongBeach-Glendale,CADenver-Aurora-Lakewood,CO Albuquerque,NMSaltLakeCity,UT UnitedStates
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28
0
5
10
15
20
25
30Pe
rcen
tLasVegasCommercialVacancyRates
SouthernNevadaRecessions IndustrialMarketVacancyRate OfficeMarketVacancyRate
RetailMarketVacancyRate ApartmentMarketVacancyRate
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29
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30
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
RecessionProbability:SouthernNevada
SouternNevadaRecessions RecessionProbability Forecast
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Risks to the Outlook ú Changes in International Growth China and emerging market economies Euro area
ú Monetary Policy Schedule of interest rate changes
ú Fiscal Policy Infrastructure and defense spending Corporate and individual tax cuts
31
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Thank You
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Knowledge within Reach
http://cber.unlv.edu
CBER
33