Tracking adaptation to climate change

Dr. Robbert Biesbroek Wageningen University & Research, Public Administration and Policy Group , the Netherlands

TRAC3 (TRacking Adaptation to Climate Change Collaboration @McGill University,

Wageningen University & Research)

What is tracking adaptation to climate change?

What is tracking adaptation? Systematic collection, processing and analysis of data

and information to describe, assess and explain adaptation (policy) stability and change over time and/or across contexts

Why tracking adaptation? Policy performance (e.g. goal attainment) Accountability (e.g. climate investments) Policy orientated learning (e.g. share lessons learned)

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Earlier work: Observed change among high-income countries (NC5-NC6)

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I/VA CT AR IIT REG PA/O OD S/M CCS FIN SN EVAL

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I/VA= Impact & vulnerability assessment OD= Organizational development CT= Conceptual tool S/M= Surveillance & monitoring AR= Adaptation research CCS= Climate change scenario IIT= Infrastructure/innovation/technology FIN= Financial support REG= Regulation SN= Stakeholder networking PA/O= Public awareness & outreach EVAL= Evaluation

Lesnikowski, A., Ford, J.D., Biesbroek, G.R., Berrang-Ford, L. and J. Heymann (2016) National-level progress on adaptation Nature Climate Change 6, 261–264

Earlier work: Tracking city level adaptation (>1milion)

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Map by Malcolm Araos Egan

Araos, M. Berrang-Ford, L., Ford, J., Austin, S.E., and G.R. Biesbroek (2016) Climate change adaptation planning in large cities: a systematic global assessment, Environmental Science and Policy

1. Conceptual challenges for tracking

Problem framing: adaptation has different meanings in different contexts/regions

Symbolic policy: not all policy is substantively reducing climate risks (rhetoric vs reality)

Measurement of outcome: What is successful adaptation policy? What is the ‘target’? Quantify?

Attribution: how to causally connect output – outcome

Measure of integration: how to track mainstreaming when no longer labelled as adaptation?

5 Ford, J.D., Berrang-Ford, L., Biesbroek, R., Araos, M., Austin, S.E., and Lesnikowski L. (2015) Adaptation tracking for a post-2015 climate agreement. Nature Climate Change. 5, 967-969.

2. Methodological challenges for tracking

Meaningful tracking requires 4C’s:

Consistent definition of adaptation

Comprehensive data for all countries (missing data,

time series availability)

Comparable units of analysis and measurement

(different risk profiles; reporting bias)

Coherent measurements of substantive adaptation

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Ford, J., Berrang-Ford, L. (2016). The 4Cs of adaptation tracking: consistency, comparability, comprehensiveness, coherency. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change. 21(6), 839-859.

ATC: Adaptation tracking framework

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National baseline COUNTRY RISK PROFILE

(2001)

National baseline ADAPTATION

(2001)

Is there substantive progress in

adaptation policy?

Adapting to what? Climate risk metrics

How to adapt? Adaptation policy metrics

National adaptation planning/ priorities

(TARGETS)

(moment x in time)

Are adaptation goals and targets aligned with baseline risks?

Do policy goals and targets reflect substantive progress from baseline?

PROXIMITY TO TARGETS (Are we doing right things right?)

(moment x in time)

Have (intermediary)

targets been met?

ALIGNMENT WITH RISK (Are we doing the right things?)

(moment x in time)

CURRENT National adaptation policy & practice

Have the right targets been

met?

Is there evidence that adaptation policy has

contributed to decreased vulnerability? Are there

alternative explanations?

CURRENT climate risks and vulnerability

(moment x in time)

Have risks changed over

time?

Are targets still aligned with risks?

ATC: Metrics for adaptation tracking

Climate risk metrics Indicators for current and projected

climate impacts on vulnerable sectors and groups

● E.g. food systems; water; health;

ecosystem service; human habitat;

infrastructure;....

EXISTING DATA: UNISDR/GAR, World bank, Environmental Performance Index; ND-GAIN

Adaptation policy metrics Policy framing of climate risks

Policy goals and targets to reduce climate risks (also sectoral)

Instruments (substantive and procedural) to implement policy

● E.g. Financial schemes; organizational

and legislative reforms; knowledge

programs; adaptation investments;

M&E systems;...

NEW DATA NEEDED: portfolio assessment

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ATC: Metrics for adaptation tracking

Climate risk metrics Indicators for current and projected

climate impacts on vulnerable sectors and groups

● E.g. food systems; water; health;

ecosystem service; human habitat;

infrastructure;....

EXISTING DATA: UNISDR/GAR, World bank, Environmental Performance Index; ND-GAIN

Adaptation policy metrics Policy framing of climate risks

Policy goals and targets to reduce climate risks (also sectoral)

Instruments (substantive and procedural) to implement policy

● E.g. Financial schemes; organizational

and legislative reforms; knowledge

programs; adaptation investments;

M&E systems;...

NEW DATA NEEDED: portfolio assessment

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Needs and next steps for tracking

Set baseline for climate risk and adaptation policy

Shared goal of what is adaptation to climate change

Stricter guidelines on adaptation policy reporting under UNFCCC

New data on policy metrics for tracking adaptation performance, accountability and policy learning

Why are we tracking? For whom? Needs assessment

Key challenges still open: e.g. symbolic policy making; attribution problem

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Thank you!

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robbert.biesbroek@wur.nl

nl.linkedin.com/in/robbertbiesbroek

researchgate.net/profile/Robbert_Biesbroek

@R_Biesbroek

www.TRAC3.ca

https://scholar.google.nl/citations?user=cnX27xUAAAAJ&hl=nl

The ATC project is conducting a stakeholder needs assessment on Adaptation Metrics. Please contact Frances Wang (frances.wang@mail.mcgill.ca) or visit www.TRAC3.ca to contribute