dr. nick phelps dr. luis e. escobar...dr. luis e. escobar research associate dr. nick phelps...
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Dr. Luis E. EscobarResearch Associate
Dr. Nick PhelpsCo-Director/Assistant Professor
Aquatic Invaders SummitOctober 5, 2016 St. Cloud, MN
/Focus prevention/management efforts in areas of highest riskefforts in areas of highest risk
Research questions: 1. Can the AIS be introduced?1. Can the AIS be introduced?If so, 2. Can the AIS survive and thrive?
Ongoing work on: 1. Geographic proximity 2. Natural connections3. Boater connections
Geographic proximityHypothesis: A waterbody is at greater risk of AIS introduction if it is yp y gCLOSE to an infested location
Zebra mussel risk
Natural connectionsHypothesis: A waterbody is at greater risk of AIS introduction if it is yp y gNATURALLY CONNECTED to an infested location
Natural connectionsHypothesis: A waterbody is at greater risk of AIS introduction if it is yp y gNATURALLY CONNECTED to an infested location
Network model
Waterbody ID Verification
Network model
Boater connectionsHypothesis: A waterbody is at greater risk of AIS introduction if it is yp y gCONNECTED BY BOATER MOVEMENT to an infested location
Data from:Data from: Koronis Lake Association
Boater connectionsHypothesis: A waterbody is at greater risk of AIS introduction if it is yp y gCONNECTED BY BOATER MOVEMENT to an infested location
MN DNR Watercraft Inspection Data763,361 total surveys
“Previous/next lake visited” = ~500,000 connections!‐ 3,214 would not answer‐ 56,339 did not know previous lake‐ 193 969 did not know next lake‐ 193,969 did not know next lake‐ 10,797 previous lake was out of MN‐ All 87 counties ‘connected’
‐ 10 lakes represented ~65% of the visits
Boater connectionsHypothesis: A waterbody is at greater risk of AIS introduction if it is yp y gCONNECTED BY BOATER MOVEMENT to an infested location
More data??
Summer Winter
Papenfuss et al. 2015. Fisheries 40:318‐327.
Boater connectionsHypothesis: A waterbody is at greater risk of AIS introduction if it is yp y gCONNECTED BY BOATER MOVEMENT to an infested location
*Example network*
Risk of introductionEurasian watermilfoilZebra mussels
1 Boater movement 1 Boater movement1. Boater movement2. Proximity to major road
1. Boater movement2. River connection to positive location
Kanankege et al. In review.
1 C h AIS b i d d?
Research questions:
1. Can the AIS be introduced?If so 2 Can the AIS survive and thrive?If so, 2. Can the AIS survive and thrive?
Zebra mussels:
Eurasian watermilfoil:
1 C h AIS b i d d?
Research questions:
1. Can the AIS be introduced?If so 2 Can the AIS survive and thrive?If so, 2. Can the AIS survive and thrive?
Why me = [Can it get there] * [Can it survive]
Connectivity networks Environmental suitability
Why me = [Can it get there] [Can it survive]
ZM
*Example map*
*=EWM
Why me = [Can it get there]*[Can it survive]*[Management]
Why me = [Can it get there]*[Can it survive]*[Management]
J. Johnson
minnesotawaters.org
County Prevention Aid
MAIISRC
County Prevention Aid
MN DNR
• Will not be perfect• Model reflects quality and quantity of data• Risk is relativeRisk is relative• Tradeoff: False positive vs. False negative??O i i ff ti ll b ti• Ongoing process, requires effective collaboration and communication
RESEARCH will inform variablesMANAGEMENT will inform applicationMANAGEMENT will inform application
[email protected]: @FishDoc_UMN
Minnesota Aquatic Invasive Species Research Centerwww.maisrc.umn.edu
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