Dr. Madhu Khanna

University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign

1.   Biofuels and bio-products competitive with fossil fuels.

2.   Optimize production to reduce competition for arable land across food, feed, and fuel production.

3.  Enhance fuel feedstock production on marginal land for efficient land use.

4.   Optimize feedstock production for the provisioning of ecosystem services, providing clean air and water, as well as healthy soils and habitat.

What Does a Future With 16 Billion Gallons of Cellulosic Biofuel in 2022 Look Like?

1.7

1.8

1.9

2

2.1

2.2

2.3

2007 2012 2017 2022

Greenhouse Gas Savings with the RFS (B MT)

No policy RFS RFS+CBPTC

Economic and Policy Challenges to Sustainable Biofuels   Need high yielding, low carbon, low input, dedicated energy crops,

and also make use of residues and waste feedstocks

  Need cost-competitive conversion technology

  Policies Options for Supply Chain Development:

•  Incentives for production of feedstocks for farmers

•  R&D and low cost innovation loans to improve conversion technology

•  Ease blending constraints by incentivizing flex fuel vehicles and related infrastructure

•  Renewable fuel standards that assure demand by blenders

300 Acre Energy Farm at University of Illinois

0

200

400

600

800

1000

Corn ethanol Sugarcane Wheat straw ethanol

Stover ethanol

Switchgrass ethanol

Miscanthus ethanol

Energy Cane

Biofuel Yield: Gallons per Acre (Dwivedi et al., 2015)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Talladega, AL Marion, IL Adams, IN Talladega, AL Marion, IL Adams, IN

Effect of Soil Quality on Yields (Metric tons/ha )

High Quality Soil Low Quality Soil

Switchgrass

Miscanthus

(Dwivedi et al., 2015)

(Dwivedi et al., 2015)

Miscanthus produces

140% - 170% Savings of

GHG for each Unit of

Production

Corn Stover results in a 50%- 90% Savings of

GHG for each Unit of

Production

Switchgrass results in

100% - 130% GHG, but the Unit Cost of

Production is More

Variable.

Ecosystem Service Provisioning Water Quality Impacts

•  Energy grass nitrate loads = only 10% of total corn nitrate loads after 4 years of establishment

•  Corn stover can reduce nitrate loading but increase erosion and sediment run off.

•  Limits on stover removal rate are critical for ES provisioning.

Smith et al., 2010

Nitrates

  Cost of corn ethanol declined by 45% as production increased 17-fold since 1983

  Cost of sugarcane ethanol declined by 70% as production increased 30-fold since 1979

  Can we observe a similar trend with technology forcing policies for cellulosics?

Chen and Khanna, 2012

Risk Premium $ per ton Yield Risk Relative to Corn

Miscanthus

Switchgrass

< -30

-30 to -20

-20 to -10

-10 to -0

0 to 10

10 to 20

20 to 30

> 30

Low risk

High risk

Miao and Khanna, 2014

Biomass Crop Assistance Program   Provides establishment cost share subsidies for perennial energy

crops

  Covers the opportunity cost of land during establishment years

  Offsets disincentives due to low biomass price, liquidity constraints and high discount rates

2014 Farm Bill Policy

  However, funding in the Farm Bill 2014 is limited to $25 million a year for 5 years

  Enough incentive for cellulosic feedstocks?

 Up to half could be spent on crop and forest residues

Reaping the Benefits of Advanced Biofuels Through Policy

LCFS Implementation Experience from California: Affecting the Mix of LC Fuels

Summary: Policy Choices

Based on research with:

  Ruiqing Miao

  Weiwei Wang

  Puneet Dwivedi

  Tara Hudiburg

  Melannie Hartman

  William Parton

  Evan Delucia

  Steve Long

  Deepak Jaiswal

Email: khanna1@illinois.edu http://ace.illinois.edu/directory/madhu-khanna