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Dr. Leo Goff, Captain USN (Ret.)Program Manager CNA Military Advisory Board

President ACARYISFormer Commanding Officer USS City of Corpus Christi SSN 705

Biofuels, National Security and The Evolving US Energy Posture

Sixth Annual EBI Biofuels Law and Regulation Conference "Re-Imagining Policy Incentives for Biofuels”

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• Oil Dependence is a National Security Threat

• DOD can be a Driver for Oil Independence

BLUF

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CNA’s Leadership on Energy & National Security

CNA -- Research organization providing in-depth analysis and solutions for government leaders

MAB -- 2007-2013 Over 30 Members (Rotational)

• General Gordon Sullivan, USA (Ret)• General James Conway, USMC (Ret)• Admiral “Skip” Bowman, USN (Ret)• General Paul Kern, USA (Ret) • General “Chuck”. Wald, USAF (Ret) • General Ron Keys, USAF (Ret) • Admiral Joseph Lopez, USN (Ret) • General Robert Magnus, USMC (Ret) • Admiral Steve Abbot, USN (Ret) • Vice Admiral Denny McGinn, USN (Ret) • Vice Admiral Lee Gunn, USN (Ret) • Sherri Goodman

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• Economic Strength

• Geopolitical Stability

• Military Capability

• Environmental Sustainability

National Security Is More Than DOD

CNA MAB National Security Framework

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MAB #1 Finding

America’s dependence on fossil fuels constitutes a significant national security threat

Economy •Completely reliant and vulnerable•Transportation system totally dependent (food, jobs, etc)•Price volatility stifles investment

Geopolitics •Limits our options on the world stage•Sizeable Mid-east presence•China will be competing for same oil– raise tensions

Militarily •High oil price limits investment in capability and capacity•Single source– increase vulnerability, long logistics tails

Environment •Pollution, oil spills, GHG•Grandkids need oil for things beside fuel•Not in my back yard – limits further US production

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Oil - The Facts

• U.S. uses ~ 18-19 million barrels/day

• About 40% is imported

• About 40% of imported is from OPEC

• Global commodity – price set by global supply (OPEC) and demand (ROW)

• China is NOW world the largest importer and growing at 7% each

year

o China exceed US imports THIS Year (years earlier than predicted)

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Evolving Energy Posture -- US Oil Production

U.S. Energy Information Administration | Annual Energy Outlook 2013 Early Release Overview

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U.S. Energy Information Administration | Annual Energy Outlook 2013 Early Release Overview

New Energy Posture: Five “Myths”?

1 North American can achieve oil independence

2 US can achieve energy independence

3 The new found oil/gas will allow us to reduce US presence in the Middle East

4 New found gas supplies solve the GHG problem

5 We can shift away from renewable/clean energy

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New Posture: North American Oil Independence

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Non OCED Oil Demand Accelerates

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New Posture: US Energy Independence

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New Posture: US and the Middle East

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U.S. Energy Information Administration | Annual Energy Outlook 2013 Early Release Overview

New Posture: Climate Stress

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CNA Military Advisory BoardNational Security and the Threat of Climate Change (2007)

• Projected climate change poses a serious

threat to America’s national security

• Climate change acts as a threat multiplier for

instability in some of the most volatile regions of

the world

• Projected climate change will add to tensions even in stable regions of

the world

• Climate change, national security, and energy dependence

are a related set of global challenges

• U.S. should commit to stabilize climate changes to avoid

significant disruption to global security and stability

New Posture: Climate Stress

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New Posture: The Impact of Clean Energy

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New Posture and Renewables

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DOD as a Leader in Renewables

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DOD alternative fuels policy: Ensure operational military readiness Improve battlespace and expeditionary effectiveness Increase the ability to use multiple, reliable fuel sources Increased resilience - supply disruptions- price volatility Increased fuel options for operational commanders

“drop-in,” that is, requiring no modification to existing engines cost-competitive with conventional petroleum fuels available in sufficient quantities; derived from a non-food crop feedstock; and have lifecycle greenhouse gas emissions less than or equal to

conventional petroleum

DOD consumes 145 million barrels annually

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Service Initiatives

Army By 2025, at least 25% of energy used for tactical power derived from renewable. By 2028 50% of the fuel requirement in the training base for the tactical mobility

met by alternative fuel blends

 

 Air Force As of 2012 tested and certified all aircraft and systems on a 50:50 alternative

fuel By 2016 acquire 50% of the Air Force’s domestic aviation fuel requirements via

an alternative fuel blend in which the alternative component is derived from domestic sources produced in a manner that is greener than fuels produced from conventional petroleum

  

Navy By 2016 deploy a “Great Green Fleet” strike group of ships and aircraft running

entirely on alternative fuel blends by 2016. Demonstrated during the 2012 RIMPAC

By 2020 50% of the Navy's total energy consumption from alternative sources

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Other Initiatives

• 2006 and 2009 DOD

• clean energy investments increased 300 %

• from $400 million to $1.2 billion

• Starting in 2015 Pentagon will be spending $2.25 billion per year

• By 2030 projected at $10 billion annually

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Other Initiatives

2011 Defense Production Act -- Departments of the Navy, Energy and Agriculture Memorandum of Understanding

"assist the development and support of a sustainable commercial biofuels industry.“

Support advanced drop-in biofuel plants and refineries to produce advanced biofuels thatmeet military specifications;

• are price competitive with petroleum;• are at geographically diverse locations with ready market access; • have no significant impact on the food supply.24

$510 million over a period of three years, with $170 million each from the Navy, the Department of Energy, and theDepartment of Agriculture.

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Questions

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Back-up

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CNA- Military Advisory BoardEnsuring America’s Freedom of Movement (2011)

• America’s dependence on oil constitutes a significant national security threat

• A 30 percent reduction in our use of petroleum

would significantly improve our national security

• We can achieve a significant portion of a 30

percent reduction through greater efficiency in oil use

• There are many promising alternatives to oil as a transport…

all of the most promising alternative fuels examined can lower overall national security risks rather than continuing our overreliance on oil

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MAB -- 2007-2011 Over 30 Members (Rotational)• General Gordon Sullivan, USA (Ret) Chief of Staff, US Army• General James Conway, USMC (Ret) Commandant of Marine Corps• Admiral “Skip” Bowman, USN (Ret) Director, Navy Nuclear Power • General Paul Kern, USA (Ret) Commander, Army Materiel Command • General “Chuck” Wald, USAF (Ret) Deputy Commander, U.S. European CMD • General Ronald Keys, USAF (Ret) Commander, Air Combat Command • Admiral Joseph Lopez, USN (Ret) Commander, US Navy Europe • General Robert Magnus, USMC (Ret) Assistant Commandant, USMC • Admiral John Nathman, USN (Ret) Commander, Fleet Forces Command • Admiral Steve Abbot, USN (Ret) Deputy Commander, US European

Command• Vice Admiral D. McGinn, USN (Ret) Commander, Third Fleet • Vice Admiral Lee Gunn, USN (Ret) Inspector General, Department of the

Navy• General Paul Kern, USA (Ret) Commanding General, Army Material

Command

CNA -- Research organization providing in-depth analysis and solutions for government leaders

CNA Military Advisory Board (MAB)

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New Posture: US Oil Demand