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Dr. Lawrence Buja National Center for Atmospheric Research Boulder, Colorado, USA Dr. Lawrence Buja National Center for Atmospheric Research Boulder, Colorado, USA New Directions in Climate Research and Simulation: IPCC AR5 and US/NCAR Climate Modeling Activities Slide 2 Image courtesy of Canada DND Recently, the direction of our climate change research program dramatically changed. WAS: Is anthropogenic climate change occurring? NOW: What will be the of impact of anthropogenic climate change on coupled human and natural systems? Magnitude and speed? Direct and indirect impacts? Adaptation vs mitigation What are our options & limits? Addressing these new, much more complex, questions requires new approaches & priorities, new science capabilities, new collaborators/partners Slide 3 CCSP 2.1a Mitigation Simulations Slide 4 Slide 5 MSE 3 Climate Topics Summary DOEs ten-year vision to use exascale computing to revolutionize DOEs approaches to energy, environmental sustainability and security global challenges. Exascale systems provide and unprecedented opportunity for science to use computation not only as an critical tool along with theory and experiment in understanding the behavior of the fundamental components of nature but also for fundamental discovery and exploration of the behavior of complex systems with billions of components including those involving humans. Download complete MSE 3 Report at http://www.er.doe.gov/ASCR/ProgramDocuments/TownHall.pdf Slide 6 HPC dimensions of Climate Prediction Data Assimilation New Science Spatial Resolution Ensemble size Timescale Better Science (parameterization explicit model) (new processes/interactions not previously included) (simulate finer details, regions & transients) (quantify statistical properties of simulation) (decadal prediction/ initial value forecasts) (Length of simulations * time step) Lawrence Buja (NCAR) / Tim Palmer (ECMWF) Slide 7 Spatial Resolution (x*y*z) Ensemble size Timescale (Years*timestep) Today Terascale 5 50 500 Climate Model 70 10 2010 Petascale 1.4 160km 0.2 22km AMR 1000 400 1Km Regular 10000 Earth System Model 100yr* 20min 1000yr* 3min 1000yr * ? Code Rewrite Cost Multiplier Data Assimilation ESM+multiscale GCRM New Science Better Science HPC dimensions of Climate Prediction ? Lawrence Buja (NCAR) 10 2015 Exascale Slide 8 Lawrence Buja (NCAR) Global General Atm/Ocn Circulation Continental Scale Flow Carbon Cycle + BGC Spinups Regional MJO/MLC Convergence IPCC AR3 1998 IPCC AR4 2004 4TF Sub-Regional Hurricanes IPCC AR5 2010 500TF CCSM Grand Challenge 2010 1PF Slide 9 CCSM at ATM 1/10OCN Courtesy Dr. David Bader, PCMDI/LLNL/DOE Slide 10 IPCC AR4 Modeling Centers & AR5 Timeline Slide 11 Aerosols Direct and indirect effects Chemistry Radiative and air quality issues Dynamic Vegetation Regrowth following disturbance Carbon & Nitrogen Cycle Ocean & land biogeochemistry Anthropogenic (transient) land use/cover Land Ice Sheets Sea level Rise & Abrupt Climate change New CCSM Components for IPCC AR5 Slide 12 IPCC AR5 (2013) Scenarios The AR5 process has much greater coordination between IPCC WG-I (Physical Science Basis)> WG-II (Impacts, Adaptation, Vulnerability and WG-III (Mitigation). 1. IPCC Classic + Long-term (Mitigation) Scenarios: 100 & 300-year climate change simulations Medium resolution Core required + optional Tier 1 and Tier 2 simulations Carbon, Nitrogen & Biogeochemical cycles 4 Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) from IAM community Quantify investment return of mitigation strategies 2. New: Short-term Climate Change Adaptation Simulations: Short-term (30-year) climate predictions Single scenario High-resolution (0.5 or 0.25 resolution) Designed for impacts, policy and decision making communities. Slide 13 NCAR RCPs in perspective CO 2 emissions ( 671ppm, +3.7, NIES ) ( 900ppm, +4.5, IIASA ) ( 550ppm, +---, PNNL ) ( 424ppm,


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