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PLANNING BILL - PVBS

PART NO Q1 UNIT SA Q II UNIT SALQ III UNIT SA Q IV UNIT S RAW % PLAN BILL12-720 4311 6637 7823 6652 8.7%

24-720 10214 20983 27492 19535 26.7%1-720 13851 31507 66644 17337 44.2%34-720 7397 9043 11233 7496 12.0%1-420 3609 7049 9676 3976 8.3%

TOTAL 39382 75219 122868 54996DAYS 64 65 64 63UNITS DAY 615 1157 1920 873

TOTAL 292465

DAYSUNITS DAY

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!OR"#AST 12-$ &'( D"$AND

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!OR"#AST $AST"R AS O! O#TOB"R 7)2004

WIL*INS R"GULATOR DIVISION UNIT SAL"S P"R W""* BY QUART"R

PROD LIN"!IS#AL Y" Q I Q II Q III Q IV Y"AR TOT

PVB 1999 1788 3748 5115 3167 1796342000 2097 4008 5532 3123 1918802001 2116 3523 5921 3374 1941422002 2352 4092 6824 3968 2240682003 2721 4449 7184 4531 2455052004 3029 5786 9451 4231 292461

!IR" VALV"!IS#AL Y" Q I Q II Q III Q IV Y"AR TOT1999 36 43 18 13 14302000 47 32 34 24 17812001 21 45 19 38 15992002 36 38 28 43 18852003 42 27 25 11 13652004 22 26 28 29 1365

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L

L

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SAL"S +ISTORY 2001-2004

Y, Q' PVB T ' / Y, Q' ! , V / , T ' /2001 1 27512 2001 1 2702001 2 45798 2001 2 590

2001 3 76968 2001 3 2522001 4 43858 2001 4 4972002 1 30580 2002 1 4642002 2 53198 2002 2 4952002 3 88704 2002 3 3702002 4 51590 2002 4 5672003 1 35372 2003 1 5412003 2 57840 2003 2 3512003 3 93388 2003 3 3312003 4 58906 2003 4 137

2004 1 39382 2004 1 2852004 2 75219 2004 2 3442004 3 122868 2004 3 3602004 4 54996 2004 4 382

PVB T ,&U , T ,& , ', ( /' ,'( ' , ' , & 2005 ', 1# , '(, :' &, / , ; '( ' / /, < ,&

T(, , /, '( & ,'( , , /= '(,& '( ,'( :,'',

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 160

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

Q'PVB T ' /L &, >PVB T ' /

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A/ @& / , / , , ( ', &< '(, / & , '

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! , V / , T ,& & S, & / '=U , T ,& & , & / '= , ', ( /' ,'( ' , ' , & 2# , '(, :' &, / , ; '( ' / /, < ,&

T(, , /, '( & ,'( , , /= '(,& '( ,'( :,'',

?

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 160

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

Q'! , V / , T ' /L &, >! , V / ,

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'( ' / /, ' : '( '(, '

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005 ', 1

' /?

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A &< / , Holtz-wintA/ ( 0 / ( 0.2 A/ ( ># ,&' S /, - L ' =, , & ! 'B,' 0 :,' 1 0.1 :,' >T( ', : , /, ,/ - P ;,, : ,G 0 < 0.25 G >'( ', /, - '( ', : , /

S, & / ' S /, > < &, '

Year Period Qtr PVB TotalBase Level TREN ! "easonal #orecast2001 1 1 27512 -210222001 2 2 45798 -27362001 3 3 76968 284342001 4 4 43858 48534 0 -46762002 5 1 30580 49147.6 61.36 -20408.42002 6 2 53198 50553.968 195.8608 -1390.9922002 7 3 88704 52653.863 386.2642 30338.032002 8 4 51590 53685.3018 450.7817 -4030.825

2003 9 1 35372 54464.9468 483.668 -20079.542003 10 2 57840 55805.0902 569.3156 -534.51662003 11 3 93388 57709.5178 702.8268 31673.152003 12 4 58906 59317.2407 793.3164 -3125.9292004 13 1 39382 59980.753 780.336 -20209.342004 14 2 75219 63759.5745 1080.185 2463.9692004 15 3 122868 70110.778 1607.286 36944.172004 16 4 54996 68998.8373 1335.364 -5845.1562005 17 1 49925.8012005 18 2 70278.5732005 19 3 103342.962005 20 4 70309.4672006 21 1 55596.1192006 22 2 76476.5032006 23 3 110019.532006 24 4 76555.8182007 25 1 60807.772007 26 2 84816.4432007 27 3 1206322007 28 4 79178.0462008 29 1 86358.5662008 30 2 87693.9292008 31 3 89029.2932008 32 4 90364.6572009 33 1 91700.022009 34 2 93035.3842009 35 3 94370.7482009 36 4 95706.1112010 37 1 97041.475

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2010 38 2 98376.8392010 39 3 99712.2032010 40 4 101047.572011 41 1 102382.932011 42 2 103718.292011 43 3 105053.66

2011 44 4 106389.022012 45 1 107724.382012 46 2 109059.752012 47 3 110395.112012 48 4 111730.482013 49 1 113065.842013 50 2 114401.22013 51 3 115736.572013 52 4 117071.932014 53 1 118407.29

2014 54 2 119742.662014 55 3 121078.022014 56 4 122413.392015 57 1 123748.752015 58 2 125084.112015 59 3 126419.482015 60 4 127754.842016 61 1 129090.22016 62 2 130425.572016 63 3 131760.932016 64 4 133096.32017 65 1 134431.662017 66 2 135767.022017 67 3 137102.392017 68 4 138437.752018 69 1 139773.112018 70 2 141108.482018 71 3 142443.842018 72 4 143779.22019 73 1 145114.572019 74 2 146449.932019 75 3 147785.32019 76 4 149120.662020 77 1 150456.022020 78 2 151791.392020 79 3 153126.752020 80 4 154462.11

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rs forecasting methodC>1- / ( ? >P ', : , /, ,/ C P Q ', , & / ' ?

/, ,/?C>1-:,' ? ', ' ,&,/? C >1-< >/ ' =, , & / ' ?

, /,?

! , ' &PVB T ' /?

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