Download - World on edge

Tipping on the Edge of ChaosTipping on the Edge of ChaosTipping on the Edge of ChaosTipping on the Edge of ChaosTipping on the Edge of ChaosTipping on the Edge of ChaosTipping on the Edge of ChaosTipping on the Edge of Chaos

PreventPreventPreventPreventPreventPreventPreventPrevent

Environmental collapseEnvironmental collapseEnvironmental collapseEnvironmental collapseEnvironmental collapseEnvironmental collapseEnvironmental collapseEnvironmental collapse

Economic collapseEconomic collapseEconomic collapseEconomic collapse

Bright Economic Future…?Bright Economic Future…?Bright Economic Future…?Bright Economic Future…?

Gross World Product, 1950Gross World Product, 1950--20092009

Bright Economic Future…?Bright Economic Future…?Bright Economic Future…?Bright Economic Future…?

Gross World Product, 1950Gross World Product, 1950--20092009

The The

grown nearly 10grown nearly 10

3% annual growth rate3% annual growth rate

The The

grown nearly 10grown nearly 10


The global economy has The global economy has

grown nearly 10grown nearly 10--fold with fold with


The global economy has The global economy has

grown nearly 10grown nearly 10--fold with fold with


Gross World Product, 1950Gross World Product, 1950--20092009Gross World Product, 1950Gross World Product, 1950--20092009

Extrapolation of IllustrExtrapolation of Illustr

into a promising futureinto a promising future

Extrapolation of IllustrExtrapolation of Illustr


lustrious economic past lustrious economic past


lustrious economic past lustrious economic past


Economy is destroying Economy is destroying ing its natural supportsing its natural supports

Economy is destroying Economy is destroying In fact we are running up against In fact we are running up against ing its natural supportsing its natural supportsIn fact we are running up against In fact we are running up against

LIMITS LIMITS LIMITS LIMITS

Aquifers Aquifers Aquifers Aquifers

Soils Soils Soils Soils

Fisheries Fisheries Fisheries Fisheries

Forests Forests Forests Forests

Atmosphere Atmosphere Atmosphere Atmosphere

Our Collective Demand Our Collective Demand Our Collective Demand Our Collective Demand

OvershootingOvershootingOvershootingOvershooting

What Nature can provide What Nature can provide What Nature can provide What Nature can provide

HoHo

thatha

ecoeco

HoHo

thatha

ecoeco

supsupsupsup

How can we assume How can we assume

that the growth of an that the growth of an

economic system that economic system that

is destroying its is destroying its

environmental environmental





environmental environmental environmental environmental

supports can simply be supports can simply be

projected into the projected into the

LongLong--term future?term future?

environmental environmental




Gathering Storm Gathering Storm Gathering Storm Gathering Storm

threatens threatens threatens threatens

Civilization Civilization Civilization Civilization

Economic Economic Economic Economic

Political Political Political Political

HoHo

thatha

ecoeco

supsup





environmental environmental environmental environmental




Indicator Indicator Indicator Indicator Indicator Indicator Indicator Indicator

WATCH WATCH WATCH WATCH WATCH WATCH WATCH WATCH

Food PricesFood PricesFood PricesFood Prices

SOCIALSOCIALSOCIALSOCIAL

Hunger RatesHunger RatesHunger RatesHunger Rates

POLITICALPOLITICALPOLITICALPOLITICAL

Sensing these INDICATORS Sensing these INDICATORS Sensing these INDICATORS Sensing these INDICATORS

POLITICALPOLITICALPOLITICALPOLITICAL

Sensing these INDICATORS Sensing these INDICATORS Sensing these INDICATORS Sensing these INDICATORS

How close we are to the EDEDHow close we are to the EDEDEDGE OUR CIVILIZATION?EDGE OUR CIVILIZATION?EDGE OUR CIVILIZATION?EDGE OUR CIVILIZATION?

1.1. Rising Rising FOOD PRICES FOOD PRICES

2.2. Rising Rising HUNGER RATES HUNGER RATES

3.3. Rising in Rising in NUMBERS OF FALLING NUMBERS OF FALLING

STATESSTATES (POLITICAL)(POLITICAL)

1.1. Rising Rising FOOD PRICES FOOD PRICES

2.2. Rising Rising HUNGER RATES HUNGER RATES

3.3. Rising in Rising in NUMBERS OF FALLING NUMBERS OF FALLING

STATESSTATES (POLITICAL)(POLITICAL)STATESSTATES (POLITICAL)(POLITICAL)

HOW CLOSE we are to the EDGE of HOW CLOSE we are to the EDGE of

OUR CIVILIZATION OUR CIVILIZATION

STATESSTATES (POLITICAL)(POLITICAL)



FOOD PRICES FOOD PRICES ( ECONOMIC)( ECONOMIC)

HUNGER RATES HUNGER RATES ( SOCIAL)( SOCIAL)

NUMBERS OF FALLING NUMBERS OF FALLING

(POLITICAL)(POLITICAL)

FOOD PRICES FOOD PRICES ( ECONOMIC)( ECONOMIC)

HUNGER RATES HUNGER RATES ( SOCIAL)( SOCIAL)

NUMBERS OF FALLING NUMBERS OF FALLING

(POLITICAL)(POLITICAL)(POLITICAL)(POLITICAL)



(POLITICAL)(POLITICAL)



Our Global Food SituationOur Global Food SituationOur Global Food SituationOur Global Food SituationOur Global Food SituationOur Global Food SituationOur Global Food SituationOur Global Food Situation

PrecariousPrecariousPrecariousPrecariousPrecariousPrecariousPrecariousPrecarious

Our Demand for FOOD Our Demand for FOOD Our Demand for FOOD Our Demand for FOOD Our Demand for FOOD Our Demand for FOOD Our Demand for FOOD Our Demand for FOOD

World population is World population is

INCREASING INCREASING


INCREASING INCREASING INCREASING INCREASING by by

annuallyannually

INCREASING INCREASING by by

annuallyannually


80 MILLION 80 MILLION


80 MILLION 80 MILLION by by 80 MILLION 80 MILLION

annuallyannually

by by 80 MILLION 80 MILLION

annuallyannually

Population Pressures Population Pressures

continues…continues…



Population Pressures Population Pressures Population Pressures Population Pressures





Population Pressures Population Pressures Population Pressures Population Pressures

10

11

12

World Population, 1950World Population, 1950--2008,2008,

with Projections to 2050with Projections to 2050

World Population, 1950World Population, 1950--2008,2008,

with Projections to 2050with Projections to 2050

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050

Source: UNPopB

illio

ns

Ea

rth P

olic

y In

stitu

te -

ww

w.e

art

h-p

olic

y.o

rg


INCREASING INCREASING


INCREASING INCREASING ExpandingExpandingExpandingExpandingINCREASING INCREASING by by

annuallyannually

INCREASING INCREASING by by

annuallyannually

ExpandingExpandingExpandingExpandingWorld population is World population is

80 MILLION 80 MILLION


80 MILLION 80 MILLION ExpandingExpandingExpandingExpandingby by 80 MILLION 80 MILLION

annuallyannually

by by 80 MILLION 80 MILLION

annuallyannually

ExpandingExpandingExpandingExpanding

SUV’s tank could take up SUV’s tank could take up

2525--gallons of Ethanol gallons of Ethanol


2525--gallons of Ethanol gallons of Ethanol


gallons of Ethanol gallons of Ethanol


gallons of Ethanol gallons of Ethanol

That can feed one That can feed one

person for an person for an

entire year!entire year!

That can feed one That can feed one

person for an person for an

entire year!entire year!entire year!entire year!entire year!entire year!

That can feed one That can feed one That can feed one That can feed one

Rising price of oil has Rising price of oil has Rising price of oil has Rising price of oil has Rising price of oil has Rising price of oil has

made it made it

PROFITABLEPROFITABLE to to

turn turn

Rising price of oil has Rising price of oil has

made it made it

PROFITABLEPROFITABLE to to

turn turn turn turn

GRAINGRAIN

into into

FUEL!FUEL!

turn turn

GRAINGRAIN

into into

FUEL!FUEL!

FOOD Supply FOOD Supply FOOD Supply FOOD Supply FOOD Supply FOOD Supply FOOD Supply FOOD Supply

Tightening..Tightening..Tightening..Tightening..Tightening..Tightening..Tightening..Tightening..

Growth in CROP yields Growth in CROP yields Growth in CROP yields Growth in CROP yields Growth in CROP yields Growth in CROP yields –– SLOWING!SLOWING!Growth in CROP yields Growth in CROP yields –– SLOWING!SLOWING!

IndustrializationIndustrializationIndustrializationIndustrializationIndustrializationIndustrializationIndustrializationIndustrialization

Eroding Soils Eroding Soils

Expanding DESERTSExpanding DESERTS







DeforestationDeforestationDeforestationDeforestationDeforestationDeforestationDeforestationDeforestation

AQUIFERS being OVER PUMPEDAQUIFERS being OVER PUMPEDAQUIFERS being OVER PUMPEDAQUIFERS being OVER PUMPEDAQUIFERS being OVER PUMPEDAQUIFERS being OVER PUMPEDAQUIFERS being OVER PUMPEDAQUIFERS being OVER PUMPED

EXTREME WEATHER eventsEXTREME WEATHER eventsEXTREME WEATHER eventsEXTREME WEATHER eventsEXTREME WEATHER eventsEXTREME WEATHER eventsEXTREME WEATHER eventsEXTREME WEATHER events

Threatens HARVESTThreatens HARVESTThreatens HARVESTThreatens HARVESTThreatens HARVESTThreatens HARVESTThreatens HARVESTThreatens HARVEST

Growth in Crop Yields Slowing Growth in Crop Yields Slowing Growth in Crop Yields Slowing Growth in Crop Yields Slowing

Growth in Crop Yields Slowing

Growth in Crop Yields Slowing Growth in Crop Yields Slowing Growth in Crop Yields Slowing Growth in Crop Yields Slowing

Climate Climate Climate Climate Climate Climate Climate Climate

Average Global TemperatureAverage Global TemperatureDioxide ConcentrationsDioxide Concentrations

14.4

14.6

14.8

Tem

pe

ratu

re (

deg

rees C

els

ius)

Temperature

Earth Policy Institute - www.earth-policy.org

13.4

13.6

13.8

14.0

14.2

1880 1900 1920 1940

Source: NASA GISS; NOAA ESRL; Worldwatch

Tem

pe

ratu

re (

deg

rees C

els

ius)

ture and Atmospheric Carbon ture and Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide ConcentrationsDioxide Concentrations ((18801880--2010)2010)

360

380

400

(pp

m)

Earth Policy Institute - www.earth-policy.org

1960 1980 2000

Source: NASA GISS; NOAA ESRL; Worldwatch

260

280

300

320

340

Atm

osp

heric C

O2 (

pp

m)

CO2

CuCu

As temperatures rise, As temperatures rise,

glaciers and ice sheets glaciers and ice sheets

melt, causing sea level melt, causing sea level

to rise to rise

Current trajectory is alreadyCurrent trajectory is already

outpacing projectionsoutpacing projections

For every For every 11°°CC rise irise i11°°CCthe optimum level during the growing the optimum level during the growing

seasonseason

ise in temperature above ise in temperature above

the optimum level during the growing the optimum level during the growing

seasonseason

Yields of wheat, rice, and corn drop by Yields of wheat, rice, and corn drop by

10 % 10 % 10 % 10 % Yields of wheat, rice, and corn drop by Yields of wheat, rice, and corn drop by

10 % 10 % 10 % 10 % (percent) (percent)

Climate change threateClimate change threate

could eventually create could eventually create

of climate refugees. of climate refugees. of climate refugees. of climate refugees.

eatens food security and eatens food security and

ate hundreds of millions ate hundreds of millions

of climate refugees. of climate refugees. of climate refugees. of climate refugees.

Time to Think Time to Think Time to Think Time to Think Time to Think Time to Think Time to Think Time to Think

Time to Time to Time to Time to Time to Time to Time to Time to to Think to Think to Think to Think to Think to Think to Think to Think

No one knows for sureNo one knows for surelate to address the tlate to address the t

NaturalNatural ResourcesResources

No one knows for sureNo one knows for surelate to address the tlate to address the t

NaturalNatural ResourcesResources

sure when it will be too sure when it will be too he trends of decline in he trends of decline in

ResourcesResources to avoid collapse to avoid collapse

sure when it will be too sure when it will be too he trends of decline in he trends of decline in

ResourcesResources to avoid collapse to avoid collapse

Business as usual is NOT working.Business as usual is NOT working.Business as usual is NOT working.Business as usual is NOT working.Business as usual is NOT working.Business as usual is NOT working.Business as usual is NOT working.Business as usual is NOT working.

How to GO about it?How to GO about it?How to GO about it?How to GO about it?How to GO about it?How to GO about it?How to GO about it?How to GO about it?

STABALIZE STABALIZE

POPOULATIONPOPOULATION

STABALIZE STABALIZE


STABALIZE STABALIZE


STABALIZE STABALIZE


ERADICATE ERADICATE

POVERTYPOVERTY

ERADICATE ERADICATE

POVERTYPOVERTY

ERADICATE ERADICATE

POVERTYPOVERTY

ERADICATE ERADICATE

POVERTYPOVERTY

RESTORE EARTH’s NATURAL RESTORE EARTH’s NATURAL

SUPPORT SYSTEMSSUPPORT SYSTEMS







STABALIZE CLIMATESTABALIZE CLIMATESTABALIZE CLIMATESTABALIZE CLIMATESTABALIZE CLIMATESTABALIZE CLIMATESTABALIZE CLIMATESTABALIZE CLIMATE

STABALIZE STABALIZE


STABALIZE STABALIZE


STABALIZE STABALIZE


STABALIZE STABALIZE


Universal Basic & ReUniversal Basic & Re

care and family planning services care and family planning services

& Reproductive health & Reproductive health

care and family planning services care and family planning services

ERADICATE ERADICATE

POVERTYPOVERTY

ERADICATE ERADICATE

POVERTYPOVERTY

ERADICATE ERADICATE

POVERTYPOVERTY

ERADICATE ERADICATE

POVERTYPOVERTY

Basic Basic Education program & Total Education program & Total Basic Basic Education program & Total Education program & Total Basic Basic Education program & Total Education program & Total

Fertility rates Efforts to eliminate Fertility rates Efforts to eliminate

poverty and slow popoverty and slow po

always reinforce each otheralways reinforce each other

Basic Basic Education program & Total Education program & Total


poverty and slow popoverty and slow po


Education program & Total Education program & Total Education program & Total Education program & Total Education program & Total Education program & Total


w population growth w population growth


Education program & Total Education program & Total


w population growth w population growth


Planting TreesPlanting TreesPlanting TreesPlanting TreesPlanting TreesPlanting TreesPlanting TreesPlanting Trees

Protecting Topsoil on croplandProtecting Topsoil on croplandProtecting Topsoil on croplandProtecting Topsoil on croplandProtecting Topsoil on croplandProtecting Topsoil on croplandProtecting Topsoil on croplandProtecting Topsoil on cropland

Restoring RangelandsRestoring RangelandsRestoring RangelandsRestoring RangelandsRestoring RangelandsRestoring RangelandsRestoring RangelandsRestoring Rangelands

Stabilizing Water LevelsStabilizing Water LevelsStabilizing Water LevelsStabilizing Water LevelsStabilizing Water LevelsStabilizing Water LevelsStabilizing Water LevelsStabilizing Water Levels

Protecting the ClimateProtecting the ClimateProtecting the ClimateProtecting the ClimateProtecting the ClimateProtecting the ClimateProtecting the ClimateProtecting the Climate

Reduce CO2 EmissionsReduce CO2 EmissionsReduce CO2 EmissionsReduce CO2 EmissionsReduce CO2 EmissionsReduce CO2 EmissionsReduce CO2 EmissionsReduce CO2 Emissions

Energy efficient Energy efficient

Transportation SystemTransportation System







Alternative Renewable SourcesAlternative Renewable SourcesAlternative Renewable SourcesAlternative Renewable SourcesAlternative Renewable SourcesAlternative Renewable SourcesAlternative Renewable SourcesAlternative Renewable Sources

Energy Efficient BuildingsEnergy Efficient BuildingsEnergy Efficient BuildingsEnergy Efficient BuildingsEnergy Efficient BuildingsEnergy Efficient BuildingsEnergy Efficient BuildingsEnergy Efficient Buildings

Appliances EfficiencyAppliances EfficiencyAppliances EfficiencyAppliances EfficiencyAppliances EfficiencyAppliances EfficiencyAppliances EfficiencyAppliances Efficiency

Energy Efficiency MeasuresEnergy Efficiency Measures

Improving Building Insulation & LightingsImproving Building Insulation & Lightings

Improving Appliances efficiencyImproving Appliances efficiencyImproving Appliances efficiencyImproving Appliances efficiency

Improving Industrial EfficiencyImproving Industrial Efficiency

Restructuring TransportationRestructuring Transportation

Energy Efficiency MeasuresEnergy Efficiency Measures

Improving Building Insulation & LightingsImproving Building Insulation & Lightings

Improving Appliances efficiencyImproving Appliances efficiencyImproving Appliances efficiencyImproving Appliances efficiency

Improving Industrial EfficiencyImproving Industrial Efficiency

Restructuring TransportationRestructuring Transportation

Above allAbove allAbove allAbove allAbove allAbove allAbove allAbove all

Mind SetMind SetMind SetMind SetMind SetMind SetMind SetMind Set

“What is “What is ESSENTIALESSENTIAL“What is “What is ESSENTIALESSENTIAL“What is “What is ESSENTIALESSENTIAL

always visible always visible

“What is “What is ESSENTIALESSENTIAL

always visible always visible

ESSENTIALESSENTIAL is is NOT NOT ESSENTIALESSENTIAL is is NOT NOT ESSENTIALESSENTIAL is is NOT NOT

always visible always visible to the eye”to the eye”

ESSENTIALESSENTIAL is is NOT NOT

always visible always visible to the eye”to the eye”

We need to ramp our We need to ramp our We need to ramp our We need to ramp our We need to ramp our We need to ramp our

RENEUABLESRENEUABLES

We need to ramp our We need to ramp our


We need to ramp our We need to ramp our We need to ramp our We need to ramp our We need to ramp our We need to ramp our


We need to ramp our We need to ramp our


WindWindWindWindWindWindWindWind

SolarSolarSolarSolarSolarSolarSolarSolar

Geo Geo TThermahermaGeo Geo TThermahermahermahermallhermahermall

NO Fossil FuelNO Fossil FuelNO Fossil FuelNO Fossil FuelNO Fossil FuelNO Fossil FuelNO Fossil FuelNO Fossil Fuel

World Electricity GenerationWorld Electricity Generation

the Economy of 2020the Economy of 2020

tion by Source in 2008 and in tion by Source in 2008 and in

the Economy of 2020the Economy of 2020

Adopting lessAdopting less--intensive farming and intensive farming and

land management practices land management practices

intensive farming and intensive farming and

land management practices land management practices

Carbon Dioxide EmissCarbon Dioxide Emississions Reduction Std. issions Reduction Std.

Tax what you burn, nTax what you burn, nTax what you burn, nTax what you burn, nrn, not what you earnrn, not what you earnrn, not what you earnrn, not what you earn

Raise Tax on Carbon EmissionRaise Tax on Carbon EmissionRaise Tax on Carbon EmissionRaise Tax on Carbon EmissionRaise Tax on Carbon EmissionRaise Tax on Carbon EmissionRaise Tax on Carbon EmissionRaise Tax on Carbon Emission

Shift from Labor to Energy TaxesShift from Labor to Energy TaxesShift from Labor to Energy TaxesShift from Labor to Energy TaxesShift from Labor to Energy TaxesShift from Labor to Energy TaxesShift from Labor to Energy TaxesShift from Labor to Energy Taxes

Less CO2 and more JobsLess CO2 and more JobsLess CO2 and more JobsLess CO2 and more JobsLess CO2 and more JobsLess CO2 and more JobsLess CO2 and more JobsLess CO2 and more Jobs

Redefine SecurityRedefine SecurityRedefine SecurityRedefine SecurityRedefine SecurityRedefine SecurityRedefine SecurityRedefine Security

Introspection Introspection Introspection Introspection

Preventing environmental and economic collapse Preventing environmental and economic collapse requires political action from all of us in order to requires political action from all of us in order to

effect broad social changeeffect broad social change

Preventing environmental and economic collapse Preventing environmental and economic collapse requires political action from all of us in order to requires political action from all of us in order to

effect broad social changeeffect broad social change

Wait and Watch the disaster aheadWait and Watch the disaster aheadWait and Watch the disaster aheadWait and Watch the disaster ahead

Be the generation that changes Be the generation that changes

direction, moving the world onto a direction, moving the world onto a

path of sustained progress?path of sustained progress?

Be the generation that changes Be the generation that changes

direction, moving the world onto a direction, moving the world onto a

path of sustained progress?path of sustained progress?

The choice is ours. It will be made The choice is ours. It will be made

by our generation, but it will by our generation, but it will

affect life on earth for all affect life on earth for all affect life on earth for all affect life on earth for all

generations to comegenerations to come

The choice is ours. It will be made The choice is ours. It will be made

by our generation, but it will by our generation, but it will

affect life on earth for all affect life on earth for all affect life on earth for all affect life on earth for all

generations to comegenerations to come

Download - World on edge

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