Working Paper
DAMPAK UPAH TERHADAP PRODUKTIVITAS DAN
INFLASI: STUDI SEKTORAL DAN REGIONAL
2
Abstract
In this paper we observe three key issues. First, we measure the effectiveness
of regional minimum wage in affecting actual wage determination, productivity, and
inflation level in Indonesia. Furthermore, we expand our analysis on significant
factors affecting wage determination, productivity, and inflation level as our second
objective. Finally, we identify the existence of a threshold level of minimum wage in
relation to inflation level.
For the abovementioned purposes, we apply spatial lag model (SAR) and
spatial error model (SEM) to address the first and the second issue to provincial level
data of Indonesia during of 2000-2006. Hence, following Hansen (1999) and Caner
and Hansen (2004), we apply dynamic panel threshold model to extract the threshold
level, given endogeneity issue.
Correspondingly, it is evident that there is a nonlinear relationship between
wage and inflation in Indonesia and we suggest that any minimum wage increase
above 12.7 % will significantly accelerate inflation rate and under which an
insignificant relationship exist. Furthermore, we show that actual wage determination
in manufacturing and trade sector rely mainly on minimum wage, inflation, and GDP
growth while the increase of workers’ productivity is a product of education and
training. Therefore, we suggest that an integrated social policy is a key to boost
workers’ welfare.
Keywords: minimum wages rate, inflation rate,spatial lag model (SAR), spatial error
model (SEM), dynamic panel threshold model.
JEL CLASSIFICATION: E 24, E 31
3
4
U
MGrowth Growth Growth
1 D.I. Aceh 3.85 3.70 10.71
2 Sumatera Utara 7.31 15.89 8.75
3 Sumatera Barat 12.23 9.00 17.39
4 Riau 10.24 10.54 13.09
5 Kepulauan Riau 5.41 4.10 34.49
6 Jambi 14.22 11.24 13.69
7 Sumatera Selatan 13.00 14.00 30.00
8 Bangka Belitung 12.53 8.40 13.96
9 Bengkulu 4.49 14.11 29.03
10 Lampung 11.40 14.04
11 Jawa Barat 9.01 44.53 27.00
14 DKI Jakarta 15.38 18.54 43.87
15 Banten 4.68 4.20
12 Jawa Tengah 2.27 23.86 9.00
16 D.I. Yogyakarta 8.36 10.48 10.76
13 Jawa Timur 11.90 32.49 12.23
17 Bali 7.32 8.71 24.03
23 N T B 6.65 5.26
22 N T T 6.25 14.71 3.59
18 Kalimantan Barat 8.30 12.15 17.78
21 Kalimantan Selatan 9.91 8.79 9.18
19 Kalimantan Tengah 15.01 17.00 17.00
20 Kalimantan Timur 8.18 8.58 48.85
24 Maluku 7.14 8.33
25 Maluku Utara 5.00 8.00
26 Gorontalo 7.39 9.84
27 Sulawesi Utara 5.00 19.05
30 Sulawesi Tenggara 8.14 11.00 9.00
29 Sulawesi Tengah 6.43 6.95
28 Sulawesi Selatan 10.00 9.09 20.00
31 Sulawesi Barat 6.55 12.03
32 Irian Jaya 6.57 7.89
33 Irian Jaya Barat 16.53 2.84
8.69 12.54 19.75
8.80 11.93 21.66
10.50 19.79 29.68
3.79 4.50 4.50 Inflasi
2011 2012 2013
UMP Rata-rata
Growth UMP Rata-rata biasa
Growth UMP Rata-rata tertimbang
NO. PROPINSI
5
6
7
8
π ε
9
10
y Wy X ........................................................................................ (1)
y
X
11
y X ................................................................................................. (2)
W ................................................................................................ (3)
W
μ
12
ρ
tijititittijtij PYWWMW ,,. min. (11)
13
ρ
Produktivitasi,t = α + βWSi,t + δPSi,t + εi,t
tijititittijtij TRSCWPMP ,,, ro.ro
tiititititit YLoanWPMP ,.
(12)
(13)
(14)
14
15
0.0045 *** 0.0530 0.8790 0.8690
(2.96) (3.52) (37.90) (33.51)
0.2270 *** 0.2270 0.2440 0.2450
(16.52) (16.59) (32.73) (33.28)
0.5110 *** 0.5090 0.5240 0.5200
(76.39) (76.41) (139.45) (139.28)
0.2010 *** 0.1890 0.2270 0.2210
(19.95) (19.59) (33.77) (33.59)
R-Squared 0.9995 0.9994 0.9995 0.9998
dummy Regional
Observasi
Hausman Test
(Prob)
LM Test
Robust LM Test no spatial lag
Robust LM Test no spatial error
Catatan: Asymtot t-stat dalam tanda kurung
***,**,* menunjukkan tingkat signifikansi pada level 1%,5% dan 10%
7.64
1.15
19.68
(0.028)
PDRB
338
V
Spatial Autocorrelation
Inflasi
Upah Minimum Provinsi
FE RE
Dampak UMP Terhadap Upah Aktual Semua Sektor
VariableSAR SEM
FE RE
16
17
0.0290 0.0300 *** 0.4750 0.8000
(4.88) (5.08) (5.24) (20.73)
0.3120 0.3120 *** 0.3290 0.3330
(61.51) (62.20) (67.88) (100.03)
0.3960 0.3960 *** 0.3920 0.3930
(171.46) (173.39) (201.86) (219.5)
0.2490 0.2480 *** 0.2710 0.2710
(67.65) (68.35) (73.23) (87.57)
R-Squared 0.9999 0.9999 0.9999 0.9999
Observasi
Hausman Test
(Prob)
LM Test
Robust LM Test no spatial lag
Robust LM Test no spatial error
Catatan: Asymtot t-stat dalam tanda kurung
***,**,* menunjukkan tingkat signifikansi pada level 1%,5% dan 10%
6.0250
0.0029
0.328
1.00
PDRB
338
Spatial Autocorrelation
Inflasi (CPI)
Upah Minimum Provinsi
FE RE FE RE
Dampak UMP Terhadap Upah Aktual Sektor Pertanian
Variable
SAR SEM
18
19
0.0200 *** 0.0400 0.8300 0.8700
(1.86) (3.43) (25.45) (33.90)
0.1100 *** 0.0700 0.1100 0.1100
(10.36) (6.98) (13.89) (19.29)
0.7100 *** 0.7100 0.7200 0.7200
(127.82) (119.69) (219.27) (236.76)
0.1500 *** 0.1600 0.1600 0.1600
(18.26) (19.67) (25.69) (29.32)
R-Squared 0.9997 0.9996 0.9999 0.9999
dummy Regional
Observasi
Hausman Test
(Prob)
LM Test
Robust LM Test no spatial lag
Robust LM Test no spatial error
Catatan: Asymtot t-stat dalam tanda kurung
***,**,* menunjukkan tingkat signifikansi pada level 1%,5% dan 10%
2.05
(0.000)
8.00
338
83.52
Dampak UMP Terhadap Upah Aktual Sektor Industri
V
SAR SEM
FE RE FE RE
Inflasi (CPI)
Upah Minimum Provinsi
PDRB
Spatial Autocorrelation
Variable
20
21
0.0390 *** 0.0400 0.7600 0.8800
(5.28) (5.65) (16.47) (37.40)
0.2100 *** 0.2100 0.2200 0.2300
(29.54) (29.61) (39.31) (53.54)
0.5900 *** 0.5900 0.5900 0.5900
(162.63) (162.45) (257.91) (277.54)
0.1200 *** 0.1200 0.1700 0.1700
(23.88) (23.59) (40.05) (45.87)
R-Squared 0.9999 0.9998 0.9999 0.9999
dummy Regional
dummy Waktu
Observasi
Hausman Test
(Prob)
LM Test
Robust LM Test no spatial lag
Robust LM Test no spatial error
Catatan: Asymtot t-stat dalam tanda kurung
***,**,* menunjukkan tingkat signifikansi pada level 1%,5% dan 10%
0.29
(0.000)
6.53
V
338
40.64
Dampak UMP Terhadap Upah Aktual Sektor Perdagangan
Inflasi
Upah Minimum Provinsi
PDRB
V
FE RE FE RE
Spatial Autocorrelation
VariableSAR SEM
22
23
0.520 0.490 0.560 0.577 ***
(6.50) (5.82) (7.26) (6.76)
0.007 0.006 0.004 0.005 **
(0.87) (0.835) (0.51) (2.08)
0.060 0.070 0.140 0.138 ***
(4.04) (4.21) (6.71) (6.62)
0.030 0.030 0.030 0.034 ***
(3.01) (3.17) (3.28) (3.57)
0.0005 0.0008 0.0007 0.0008
(0.41) (0.55) (0.48) (0.37)
R-Squared 0.992 0.991 0.991 0.988
Observasi
Hausman Test
(Prob)
LM Test
Robust LM Test no spatial lag
Robust LM Test no spatial error
Catatan: Asymtot t-stat dalam tanda kurung
***,**,* menunjukkan tingkat signifikansi pada level 1%,5% dan 10%
4.98
5.69
4.48
(0.87)
338
Training
Opennes
UMP
Spatial Autocorrelation
Schooling
FE RE FE RE
Dampak UMP Terhadap Produktivitas Pekerja
VariableSAR SEM
24
25
0.0870 ** 0.0700 *
(1.977) (1.707)
25.7700 15.8600
(1.622) (1.059)
4.5500 4.6000
(0.16) (0.15)
R-Squared 0.0080 0.0200
Hausman Test
Chi Squared
Prob > Chi Squared
Catatan: Asymtot t-stat dalam tanda kurung
***,**,* menunjukkan tingkat signifikansi pada level 1%,5% dan 10%
Constant
4.820
0.080
Upah & Produktifitas: Peran Pangsa Pendapatan Pekerja vs Non Pekerja
Variable FE RE
Labour Income Share
Non Labour Income Share
26
0.71 *** 0.73 0.96 1.00
(20.42) (23.78) (137.51) (9378.01)
0.058 *** 0.02 0.06 0.04
(5.67) (3.19) (4.22) (3.04)
-0.018 *** -0.02 -0.02 -0.02
(-3.54) (-4.23) (-3.85) (-4.33)
0.096 *** 0.19 0.28 0.24
(5.56) (7.13) (7.44) (6.73)
0.04 * 0.03 0.69 0.11
(1.42) (0.74) (0.89) (1.09)
R-Squared 0.982 0.990 0.746 0.991
dummy Regional
Observasi
Hausman Test
(Prob)
LM Test
Robust LM Test no spatial lag
Robust LM Test no spatial error
Catatan: Asymtot t-stat dalam tanda kurung
***,**,* menunjukkan tingkat signifikansi pada level 1%,5% dan 10%
2.34
FE FERE RE
338
35.96
(0.00)
278.26
V
Kredit
Opennes
UMP
Nilai Tukar
Dampak UMP Terhadap Inflasi
VariableSAR SEM
Spatial Autocorrelation
27
28
Inflasi (%)
UMP
(%)
29
α
30
β
β
0.0086
(0.0072)
0.031 ***
(11.36)
0.086 ***
(7.714)
0.057 ***
(3.471)
0.124 ***
(5.612)
1.215
(1.017)
R-Squared
Observasi
Catatan: Asymtot t-stat dalam tanda kurung
***,**,* menunjukkan tingkat signifikansi pada level 1%,5% dan 10%
Konstanta
0.882
Nilai threshold UMP terhadap inflasi
312
Inflasi inertia
Kredit
Nilai Tukar
β2
Pengaruh variabel lainnya terhadap inflasi
Threshold UMP Terhadap Inflasi
α 12.73%
Pengaruh UMP terhadap inflasi
β1
31
32
