2nd62 63 64 65 66 67 68 72 73 7426 27 28 29 31 33 35 36 37 3812 13 15 16 18 19 20 21 22 231 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 38 40 41 48 50 51 52 53 54 55

61 69 70 7144 45 46 47 49 56 57 58 59 602 14 17 24 25 30 32 34 42 43

7th

10th

11th

15th

16th

18th

20th

21st

24th

29th

31st

36th

37th

41st

43rd

45th

46th

52 53 54 57 58 59 60 63 64 6525 26 27 29 30 31 32 33 36 3713 14 15 17 18 19 21 22 23 241 2 3 4 5 6 8 9 10 12 38 39 40 42 45 46 48 49 50 51

7547 55 56 61 62 70 71 72 73 747 11 16 20 28 34 35 41 43 44

67 68 71 72 74 7534 35 36 38 39 41 42 43 46 4921 23 24 25 26 27 29 30 31 321 3 5 6 8 9 12 15 17 19 52 53 55 57 58 60 62 63 65 66

51 54 56 59 61 64 69 70 7322 28 33 37 40 44 45 47 48 502 4 7 10 11 13 14 16 18 20

1 11 14 20 44 47 70 72

46 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 5525 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 3413 15 16 17 18 19 21 22 23 242 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 12 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 45

66 68 69 70 74 7532 34 35 36 38 39 41 42 44 4619 20 21 23 24 26 27 28 29 311 2 3 5 6 8 9 10 12 15 48 52 53 55 58 60 61 62 63 65

54 56 57 59 64 67 71 72 7330 33 37 40 43 45 47 49 50 514 7 11 13 14 16 17 18 22 25

55 58 59 61 63 64 65 66 68 6922 24 25 27 28 31 32 33 34 3611 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 20 211 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 40 43 44 45 47 49 50 51 53 54

71 74 7542 46 48 52 56 57 60 62 67 7019 23 26 29 30 35 37 38 39 41

68 71 7439 43 49 53 56 58 59 62 63 653 4 13 17 18 19 24 27 31 32

55 57 60 61 64 66 67 69 70 7229 30 33 34 35 36 37 38 40 4114 15 16 20 21 22 23 25 26 281 2 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 42 44 45 46 47 48 50 51 52 54

60 61 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 7225 26 27 29 30 32 44 4614 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 242 3 4 6 7 8 9 10 12 13 47 48 49 51 52 53 54 55 57 58

62 70 711 5 11 15 28 31 45 50 56 59

57 70 71 72 73 7411 12 18 19 34 44 45 50 51 54

57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 6625 26 27 28 30 31 32 33 3513 14 15 16 17 20 21 22 23 241 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 43 46 47 48 49 52 53 55 56

11 59 63 70 72

63 64 65 66 68 69 71 72 74 7530 32 34 36 38 39 41 42 43 4615 16 19 21 22 24 25 26 27 292 3 4 5 8 9 10 12 13 14 47 48 49 50 53 55 56 57 58 59

61 62 67 70 7333 35 37 40 44 45 51 52 54 601 6 7 11 17 18 20 23 28 31

37 38 40 41 45 47 48 50 55 5824 26 28 29 30 31 33 34 35 361 2 4 5 7 10 11 16 19 20 59 60 61 66 67 68 70 71 72 73

46 49 51 52 53 54 56 57 63 6421 22 23 25 27 32 39 42 43 443 6 8 9 12 13 14 15 17 18 65 69 74 75

70 74 7530 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 4318 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 291 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 15 16 50 51 52 54 57 60 61 63 65 69

55 56 58 59 62 64 66 67 68 7132 33 42 44 45 46 47 48 49 532 3 11 12 13 14 17 27 28 31 72 73

48 50 52 55 57 58 61 63 64 6526 27 29 30 32 33 38 41 42 462 3 5 6 9 16 21 23 24 25 66 67 68 73 74 75

37 39 40 43 44 45 47 49 51 5317 18 19 20 22 28 31 34 35 361 4 7 8 10 11 12 13 14 15 54 56 59 60 62 69 70 71 72

53 54 55 57 58 59 62 63 64 6526 27 28 30 31 32 34 35 37 3813 14 15 16 19 20 21 22 23 251 2 3 4 5 6 8 9 10 12 39 41 42 43 44 46 47 48 51 52

49 50 56 60 61 67 70 71 73 747 11 17 18 24 29 33 36 40 45

73 74 7531 33 35 47 51 54 56 62 70 711 11 12 13 17 19 22 24 28 30

58 59 60 61 63 64 65 66 67 6832 34 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 4315 16 18 20 21 23 25 26 27 292 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 14 44 45 46 48 49 50 52 53 55 57

15 17 19 26 46 62 69 70 73

45 47 48 61 63 64 6624 25 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 3411 12 13 14 16 18 20 21 22 231 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44

61 62 63 64 66 68 71 72 74 7531 32 35 36 37 38 39 41 42 4315 16 21 23 25 26 27 28 29 301 2 3 6 7 8 9 12 13 14 45 46 48 49 50 51 52 53 57 58

67 69 70 7333 34 40 44 47 54 55 56 59 654 5 10 11 17 18 19 20 22 24

M61 62 64 66 67 68 71 74 7535 36 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 4619 21 23 25 26 27 29 31 32 341 4 5 6 8 9 10 12 15 17 48 49 50 52 53 54 57 58 59 60

63 65 69 70 72 7324 28 30 33 37 45 47 51 55 562 3 7 11 13 14 16 18 20 22

Less than 51%

Mayoral margin

51.00% – 51.99%

52.00% – 52.99%

53.00% – 53.99%

54.00% – 54.99%

55.00% – 55.99%

56.00% – 56.99%

57.00% – 57.99%

58.00% – 58.99%

59% or higher

7 10 14 16 20 45 73

2 3 28 30 33 37 47 51 53 54 55 57 58 67

6 18 22 24 25 34 38 41 42 43 62 69 72

4 11 13 17 26 27 39 48 50 62 63 70 74

1 5 9 12 23 29 36 52 56 59 65

8 35 40 46 60 64 75

15 31 44 66

21 32 71

19 68

Incumbent w/ HIGHEST % Incumbent w/ LOWEST %

Non-Incumbent w/ HIGHEST % Non-Incumbent w/ LOWEST %

20 7 12 16 23 26

41 4 27 28 35

7 10 14 22 25

1 2 15 2043

45 11 13 24 34

46 3 30 31 36

21 6 8 21

10 22 32

31 17 18

9 3337

29 19

16 5

18

2 4 5 6 8 9 16 21 22 25

26 33 35 36

37 1 7 15 17 18 32

43 12 13 19 30

7 20 27 28

31 10 24 34

10 11 14

29 23 31

45 3

16 29

11

2 8 12 13 23 26 28 29 30 32

34

245 19 21 22 33 36

18 6 9 15 25 35

2 4 10 20 27

10 7 14 18

45 3 17

29 31

16

24

11

1

31

36

37

46

242 9 12 17 22 27 33 34 36

113 7 8 13 23 25 26

20

21

14 16 19

6 15 21

7 5 10

32 35

1 18

29 31

10

15

15

46 28 30

2 20

4

11

24

16

36

36

37 38

42 44 46 47

43 45

39

41

40

37 38 40 44 46

41 43

47

45

39

42

41 42 43 46

37 38 45

4436

407

39

4715

39 41 42

44 46

37

38 40 43

45

43 47

Alyx Pattison

Brian Hopkins

Michele Smith (i)

Caroline Vickrey

James Cappleman (i)

Amy Crawford

Natashia Holmes (i)

Gregory Mitchell

John Pope (i)

Susan Sadlowski-Garza

Patrick Thompson

John Kozlar

Rafael Yañez

Raymond Lopez

Toni Foulkes

Stephanie Coleman

Lona Lane (i)

Derrick Curtis

Willie Cochran (i)

Kevin Bailey

Howard Brookins (i)

Marvin McNeil

Vetress Boyce

Michael Scott Jr.

Deborah Graham (i)

Chris Taliaferro

Milly Santiago

Ray Suarez (i)

Omar Aquino

Gilbert Villegas

Emma Mitts (i)

Tara Stamps

Mary O’Connor (i)

Anthony Napolitano

John Arena (i)

John Garrido

58 60 61 62 64 65 6722 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 3112 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 211 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41

Rahm Emanuel (i)

Jesus “Chuy” Garcia

48

49 48

49

48

49

48

49

75

66 67

69

72 73

73 75

73 74

67 68

66 68

69 72

67 68

68 69

68 69

71 73

75

69 75

69 72

71 72

71 73

75

75

74 75

74 75

50

51

52

53 50

51

52

53

50

51

52

5316

50

51

52

5341

54

55

56

54

55

56

54

55

5643

54

55

5618

58 59 60 61 62

66

63

57

65

64

57 58 61 64 66

60

6546

63

59

62

61 65 66

60

57

58

63

64

62

59

11

59 60 62

61 64 65

57 66

63

58

67

67

67

67

The Aldertrack Election Prognostication Contest

Runoff Edition

Seventy-five individual contestants completed the contest survey by 10pm, Friday, April 3rd

.

Each contestant was assigned a number 1 through 75 and their choices are presented below.

The winner(s) will be contacted by email soon after preliminary election results are announced.

Contestants will remain anonymous unless they choose otherwise.

A Professional Guide To

Chicago Politics Since 2007

aldertrack.com

74

66

68% of contestants expect Hopkins to win

72% of contestants expect Holmes to win

61% of contestants expect Pope to win

89% of contestants expect Thompson to win

61% of contestants expect Lopez to win

69% of contestants expect Foulkes to win

69% of contestants expect Curtis to win

83% of contestants expect Cochran to win

79% of contestants expect Brookins to win

93% of contestants expect Scott to win

67% of contestants expect Graham to win

55% of contestants expect Santiago to win

57% of contestants expect Aquino to win

52% of contestants expect Stamps to win

73% of contestants expect O’Connor to win

69% of contestants expect Smith to win

65

88% of contestants expect Arena to win

68% of contestants expect Cappleman to win

65% of contestants expect Emanuel to win

68 72

69 75

74

71

70

73

68 71

73

69

70

75

72

7420

69 70 71 75

72

73

68

74

69 70 75

68

70

15

71

72

74

09% expect this outcome

19% expect this outcome

17% expect this outcome

19% expect this outcome

15% expect this outcome

09% expect this outcome

05% expect this outcome

04% expect this outcome

03% expect this outcome

61

Contestant #61

Ben Capellupo

Exec Director

SEIU – IL

Council

WINNER!