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AUSTRALIAN LAND USE, LAND USE-CHANGE AND FORESTRY EMISSIONS PROJECTIONS

TO 2035

MARCH 2015

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© Commonwealth of Australia, 2015.

Australian Land Use, Land Use-Change and Forestry emissions projections is licensed by the Commonwealth of Australia for use under a Creative Commons By Attribution 3.0 Australia licence with the exception of the Coat of Arms of the Commonwealth of Australia, the logo of the agency responsible for publishing the report, content supplied by third parties, and any images depicting people. For licence conditions see: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/au/

This report should be attributed as ‘Australian Land Use, Land Use-Change and Forestry emissions projections, Commonwealth of Australia March 2015’.

The Commonwealth of Australia has made all reasonable efforts to identify content supplied by third parties using the following format ‘© Copyright, [name of third party] ’.

DisclaimerThe views and opinions expressed in this publication are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of the Australian Government or the Minister for the Environment.

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CONTENTSContents.............................................................................................................................................3

Figures............................................................................................................................................6

Tables.............................................................................................................................................6

Summary of key projections results...................................................................................................8

UNFCCC reporting system.............................................................................................................8

The Kyoto Protocol.........................................................................................................................8

The Australian Government’s pledge to reduce emissions by 5 per cent below 2000 levels by 2020................................................................................................................................................8

Paris 2015 commitments................................................................................................................9

Projected net emissions for the land sector....................................................................................9

1. Introduction..................................................................................................................................13

Classification systems..................................................................................................................14

Accounting systems......................................................................................................................16

UNFCCC reporting framework..............................................................................................16

Kyoto Protocol accounting system........................................................................................17

Emissions estimation systems......................................................................................................18

Australia’s national inventory system........................................................................................18

Anthropogenic emissions......................................................................................................21

Planned national inventory improvements....................................................................................22

Core projections methodology......................................................................................................22

2. Sectoral emissions projections.....................................................................................................23

2.1 Forest conversion to alternative land uses.............................................................................23

Classifications...........................................................................................................................23

Estimation of emissions and removals......................................................................................23

Drivers of emissions and removals...........................................................................................26

How much clearing?..............................................................................................................26

Where does land clearing occur?..........................................................................................27

Key projections assumptions and activity data.........................................................................29

Projection results......................................................................................................................29

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Natural disturbances.............................................................................................................32

Other forests..........................................................................................................................33


Governing framework............................................................................................................34

Demand and supply conditions for Australian wood products..............................................35

Supply of wood products - hardwood plantation production / post 1990 plantations............36

Supply of wood products - softwood plantations / pre-1990 plantations...............................36

Supply of wood products - native forests..............................................................................37


Projections results.....................................................................................................................38

2.3 Land conversion to forest.......................................................................................................40




Plantations for timber............................................................................................................42

Environmental plantings........................................................................................................43

Regeneration from natural seed sources..............................................................................43

Wildfire..................................................................................................................................44



2.4 Crop lands..............................................................................................................................45




Key projections assumptions, methods and activity data.........................................................49


2.5 Grass lands............................................................................................................................50


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Changes in woody biomass management............................................................................52

Changes in fire management................................................................................................54

Key projections assumptions, methods and activity data.........................................................54


2.6 Revegetation..........................................................................................................................55

2.7 Wetland management............................................................................................................55

References.......................................................................................................................................57

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FiguresFigure 1 Land emissions, by UNFCCC classifications, Australia, Mt CO2-e, 1990-2035.................20

Figure 2 Depiction of the FullCAM modelling system......................................................................28

Figure 3 Forest productivity index, Australia....................................................................................32

Figure 4 Distribution of aboveground biomass for deforestation, Australia.....................................33

Figure 5 Forest Conversion, ha, Australia, 1990-2013....................................................................34

Figure 6 Spatial distribution of Forest Conversion events, Australia, 1990-2013............................35

Figure 7 Net emissions from Forest conversion, Australia, 1990-2013...........................................36

Figure 8 Forest conversion and farmers’ terms of trade, Australia, 1973–2013..............................36

Figure 9 Forest conversion net emissions, Mt CO2-e, Australia, 1990-2035...................................38

Figure 10 Area burned, Multiple Use Forests, 1990-2013...............................................................40

Figure 11 Estimated volume of wood products supplied, Australia, 1990-2013..............................44

Figure 12 Forest land and Land converted to forest, net emissions, 1990-2035.............................47

Figure 13 Annual area of new plantings 1990-2013........................................................................50

Figure 14 Annual net emissions from Land converted to forest 1990-2013....................................51

Figure 15 Cropland area 1970 – 2013.............................................................................................56

Figure 16 Cropland area subject to no-till management 1970 – 2013.............................................56

Figure 17 Cropland area subject to types of stubble management, 1970 – 2013...........................57

Figure 18 Annual transitions between sparse vegetation and non-woody land...............................61

Figure 19 Spatial distribution of the frequency of fires across Australia..........................................61

TablesTable 1 Net emissions for the land sector, UNFCCC classifications, 1990-2035, Australia............10

Table 2 Net emissions for the land sector, Kyoto Protocol classifications, 1990-2035, Australia....10

Table 3 Kyoto Protocol – Projected net assigned amount units issued and cancelled, 1990-2035, Australia a..................................................................................................................................11

Table 4 Kyoto Protocol – Projected RMU credits issued and cancelled, 1990-2020, Australia.......11

Table 5 UNFCCC land subsectors...................................................................................................14

Table 6 Kyoto Protocol land subsectors...........................................................................................15

Table 7 Reconciliation table between UNFCCC and Kyoto Protocol classifications.......................15

Table 8 Forest conversions and Deforestation, Australia, 1990-2035.............................................30

Table 9 Forest management land area............................................................................................346

Table 10 Forest land and Forest Management net emissions 1990-2035.......................................39

Table 11 Forest Management and Afforestation/Reforestation: actual and projected RMU net credits 2008-2020.....................................................................................................................40

Table 12 Land converted to forest and Afforestation/Reforestation, net emissions, 1990-2035.....45

Table 13 Crop land and Crop Management net emissions, 1990-2035..........................................50

Table 14 Grass and Grazing land management emissions 1990-2035...........................................55

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SUMMARY OF KEY PROJECTIONS RESULTSThis paper provides estimates of projected net anthropogenic emissions from the land sector for Australia for the period until 2035.

The estimates for the land sector have been prepared according to two different classification systems that have developed over time under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and under the Kyoto Protocol.

While more complex than other sectors, the dual reporting system is necessary to support the tracking of progress towards the Australian Government’s current and future international emission reduction commitments.

UNFCCC reporting systemThe UNFCCC classification system provides consistent estimates of the changes in the release of net anthropogenic emissions to the atmosphere by a country over time.

The Australian Government currently reports estimates of carbon dioxide emissions and removals from the land sector under this UNFCCC system in the Government’s annual National Inventory Report (see Department of the Environment, forthcoming).

The UNFCCC system provides the building blocks for all other greenhouse gas reporting and accounting systems. It is used, for example, by the United States as the basis for the monitoring of its commitment to reduce emissions by 17 per cent below 2005 levels by 2020.

The Kyoto ProtocolThe Kyoto Protocol classification system is relevant as the Australian Government is a party to the Kyoto Protocol and it has inscribed an emission reduction commitment in the treaty amendments agreed for the second commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol, 2013-2020.

The Protocol differs from the UNFCCC system as it tends to emphasise the role of direct human activities and of changes in management practices in generating net emission outcomes on the land.

This system is also used by the European Union, Norway and Switzerland in their accounting against their emission reduction commitments for the period 2013-2020. The European Union has indicated that is also open to using the UNFCCC classification system for the post 2020 period.

The Kyoto Protocol provides for the commodification of the emission estimates in order to support international emissions trading systems. This aspect of the Kyoto Protocol has important implications for the accounting of land sector emissions.

The Australian Government’s pledge to reduce emissions by 5 per cent below 2000 levels by 2020The Australian Government has indicated that it will use classification systems from the Kyoto Protocol in the monitoring and reporting of its commitment to reduce emissions by 5 per cent below 2000 levels by 2020.

Paris 2015 commitmentsIn the lead up to the international Conference in Paris, at the end of 2015, the Australian Government will be announcing an intended national contribution for the period beyond 2020.

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Consequently, this paper also provides projections of net anthropogenic emissions for the period beyond 2020.

There is no detail, as yet, as to the land sector accounting rules that will apply to the reporting by countries against their post 2020 national emission reduction commitments.

Both UNFCCC and Kyoto Protocol systems, as used by the United States and by the European Union, remain relevant for consideration by the Australian Government in the development of its post-2020 national emission reduction commitments.

The two systems - while conceptually quite different – produce similar outcomes which can be reconciled, and this is also demonstrated in this paper.

Projected net emissions for the land sectorOverall, under the UNFCCC classification system, net emissions from the land sector are projected to be 15 Mt a year on average over the period 2013-2020 and 30 Mt a year over the period 2021-2030 (Table 1 and Figure 1).

Under the Kyoto Protocol classifications used to track progress towards the Government’s commitment to reduce emissions by 5 per cent below 2000 levels by 2020, net emissions are projected to be 44 Mt in 2020 (Table 2).

The implications of the land sector emissions data for the issuance and cancellation of tradable units for the second commitment period (2013-2020) of the Kyoto Protocol are presented in Table 3 and Table 4.

Under Kyoto Protocol rules, a tradable allowance called an assigned amount unit is issued for every tonne of emissions from Forest conversion in the 1990 base year. This treatment of Forest Conversion emissions is exactly the same as the treatment of emissions from sources in the industrial sectors or for the Agriculture sector.

In the reporting period, 2013-2020, one allowance is cancelled for every tonne of emissions reported from the Deforestation activity (again, exactly the same as for emissions from sources in the industrial sectors or for the Agriculture sector). Net emissions from Deforestation are projected to be 46 Mt on average over the period 2013-2020 (Table 2).

For land categories other than Deforestation, credits (called RMU credits) are issued against the reduction in net emissions relative to a specified benchmark base year or reference level – or units are cancelled for any increase in net emissions relative to a specified benchmark base year or reference level.

The amount of net credits to be issued for the additional land activities – Afforestation and Reforestation, Forest Management, Cropland Management, Grazing Land Management and Revegetation are projected to average 13 Mt over 2013-2020 (Table 4).

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Table 1 Net emissions for the land sector, UNFCCC classifications, 1990-2035, Australia

1990 2000 Average 2008-

12

Average 2013-

20

2020 2021-30

2030 2035

Mt CO2-eForest land

Forest land - permanent

-38 -12 -16 -28 -27 -19 -20 -21

Land converted to forest

1 -12 -16 -9 -2 -6 -5 -10

Cropland

Croplands – permanent

0 -9 -1 0 3 2 1 1

Forest converted to crops

34 10 5 5 5 5 5 4

Grassland

Grasslands – permanent

-4 2 -4 0 2 3 4 5

Forest converted to grass

102 69 47 47 49 44 42 39

Settlements IE IE IE IE IE IE IE IE

Wetlands NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE

TOTAL LAND 95 49 16 15 30 30 27 18

Table 2 Net emissions for the land sector, Kyoto Protocol classifications, 1990-2035, Australia

2000 base

Average 2008-

12

Average 2013-

20

2020 2021-2030

2030 2035

Mt CO2-eDeforestation 69 49 46 47 44 42 40

Forest Management -2 -9 -17 -15 -7 -8 -9

Afforestation and Reforestation

-12 -15 -9 -2 -5 -5 -10

Cropland Management -4 0 3 6 4 3 2

Grazing land management 10 2 6 8 8 9 8

Revegetation 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Wetlands a NE NE NE NE NE NE NE

TOTAL LAND 62 27 30 44 44 41 32

a Wetlands estimates have not yet been included in the national greenhouse accounts.

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Table 3 Kyoto Protocol – Projected net assigned amount units issued and cancelled, 1990-2035, Australia a

1990 base Average 2008-12

Average 2013-20

Mt CO2-eDeforestation total a 136 49 46

a Under the Kyoto Protocol, by virtue of Article 3.7bis, emissions from land use change (deforestation) are treated the same way as emissions from any other source. Assigned amount units are issued according to the emissions estimated for the base year, 1990, and cancelled according to the emissions reported in the accounting period (eg 2013-2020).

Table 4 Kyoto Protocol – Projected RMU credits issued and cancelled, 1990-2020, Australia

1990 base

2000 Average 2008-12

Average 2013-

20Mt

Total RMU removal units issued/cancelled NA NA 22 13

Forest Management a NA NA NA 15

Afforestation and Reforestation NA NA 22 9

Cropland Management a NA NA NA -3

Grazing land management a b NA NA NA -8

Revegetation a NA NA NA 0

Wetlands c NA NA NA NA

a Australia will account for Forest Management, Croplands Management, Grazing land Management and Revegetation for the first time in the 2013-2020 period.

b In this paper, Crop and Grazing land management RMU credits estimates were adjusted for the emissions reported under Forest Conversion in the UNFCCC inventory in 1990 in order to avoid double counting.

c Wetlands have not been included in the accounting for 2013-2020, but may be considered for future national inventory reporting.

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Figure 1 Land emissions, by UNFCCC classifications, Australia, Mt CO2-e, 1990-2035

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1. INTRODUCTIONUnlike other sectors, activities on the land can generate both sources of greenhouse gas emissions and sinks that remove or sequester carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.

Net emissions1 from the land are heavily influenced by biological processes and, consequently, tend to be more variable, more complex and more difficult to estimate than for many other sources of emissions.

Nevertheless, as a net source of emissions, the land sector remains significant. In Australia, in 1990 the land accounted for around 24 per cent of total emissions reported in the national inventory.

Internationally, the land sector has contributed an estimated 19 per cent of global carbon dioxide emissions since 1960 (IPCC, 2014).

Mitigation scenarios reported by the IPCC identify the land sector as a major contributor to global responses designed to limit global net emissions consistent with a 2C ceiling.

In this paper, net anthropogenic emissions are projected for a comprehensive range of land sector categories for the period until 2035.

Currently, the Australian Government has two emission reduction commitments.

The Australian Government has committed to reduce emissions by 5 per cent below 2000 levels in 2020. This is a target that has also been reported as a commitment under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).

The Australian Government has also inscribed a commitment in amendments to the Kyoto Protocol to reduce emissions to 99.5 per cent of 1990 emission levels for the second commitment period, which extends from 2013-2020.

The Australian Government has not yet ratified these amendments, but the commitment remains relevant as the Australian Government is a party to the Kyoto Protocol itself.

1 Net emissions are defined as emissions less removals by sinks.13

In the lead up to the international conference in Paris, at the end of 2015, the Australian Government will be announcing an intended nationally determined contribution for the period beyond 2020.

The international accounting rules that may apply for the land sector for this commitment are not yet clear. Consequently, in this paper, the implications of the projections for net emissions for the land sector are considered under a number of scenarios that may be applicable for future national emission reduction commitments.

These scenarios reflect choices about emission classification systems, which are important for coverage and completeness issues, accounting frameworks and emission estimation systems. These issues are discussed briefly in the next three sections.

Classification systems

Projected estimates of net anthropogenic emissions from the land sector are presented against both UNFCCC and Kyoto Protocol emission classification systems.

The Australian Government currently reports anthropogenic land sector emissions under two separate classification systems. One of these systems is used for reporting under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and a separate system is used for reporting under the Kyoto Protocol.

Both systems are relevant for consideration in the development of post-2020 national emission reduction commitments.

The relevant sector in the UNFCCC classification system is known as the Land use, land use change and forestry (LULUCF) sector. It includes carbon dioxide emissions2 and removals3 from the land.

The UNFCCC land classification system derives from broader land use statistical systems incorporated in national economic statistical systems. The most important categories are presented in Table 5.

Table 5 UNFCCC land subsectorsSubsector Activity DefinitionForest land is all vegetation that potentially meets the definition of a forest (vegetation

must be 2 metres high and a minimum of 20 percent canopy coverage) and includes native forests and plantations where the land is used for forest purposes.

Forest land converted to other uses

is the permanent replacement of forest land with land used for pasture, crops or other uses.

Land converted to forest is the permanent conversion of land to forest land. Forests may be planted or established through other human induced means. Direct conversion to forest from natural seed sources may occur on land that is regulated as forest under State regulatory provisions.

Croplands is land on which a system of management practices support the

2 An ‘emission’ is defined by the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change as the release of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. 3 A ‘removal’ refers to the removal or sequestration of a greenhouse gas from the atmosphere.

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Subsector Activity Definitionproduction of agricultural crops grown either continuously or in rotation with pasture. It includes land that is set aside or temporarily not being used for crop production.

Grassland includes rangelands and areas of improved pasture. It also includes systems with woody vegetation (shrubs) which do not meet the definition of forest.

A separate classification system developed under the Kyoto Protocol that tends to emphasise the importance of changes in management practices in generating anthropogenic emission and removal outcomes. The most important categories are presented in Table 6.

Table 6 Kyoto Protocol land subsectorsSubsector Activity DefinitionDeforestation is the direct, human-induced removal of forest cover and replacement

with pasture, crops or other uses since 1 January 1990.

Reforestation / afforestation is the establishment of new forests by direct human action on land not forested as at 1 January 1990 (afforestation and reforestation).

Forest management is a system of practices for stewardship and use of forestland aimed at fulfilling relevant ecological, economic and social functions of the forest in a sustainable manner.

Grazing Land Management is the system of practices on land used for livestock production aimed at manipulating the amount and type of vegetation and livestock produced.

Cropland Management is the system of practices on land on which agricultural crops are grown, and on land that is set aside or temporarily not being used for crop production.

Revegetation is a direct human-induced activity to increase carbon stocks on sites through the establishment of vegetation that covers a minimum area of 0.05 hectares and does not meet the definitions of afforestation and reforestation.

While there are some essential differences between the two classification systems, it is possible to reconcile them and to demonstrate the differences that exist, if any. This information is also useful to understand the implications of the adoption of one or other of the two classification systems for a post 2020 target.

For the most part, the differences have become either less pronounced or less significant as the coverage of land activities adopted by the Australian Government has increased over time.

In Table 7, a concordance between UNFCCC and Kyoto Protocol classifications used in the preparation of net emission estimates in this report is presented.

Table 7 Reconciliation table between UNFCCC and Kyoto Protocol classificationsUNFCCC Kyoto ProtocolForest land

Forest land – multiple use forests Forest Management

Forest land – pre-1990 plantations Forest Management

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UNFCCC Kyoto ProtocolForest land – private native forests Monitored for Forest Management activity

Forest land – conservation reserves Monitored for Forest Management activity

Forest land – other native forest Monitored for Forest Management activity

Land converted to forest

New plantations since 1990 Afforestation / Reforestation

Native regeneration since 1990 – direct human induced

Afforestation / Reforestation

Cropland

Croplands – permanent Cropland management

Forest converted to crops Deforestation

Grassland converted to crops Cropland management

Grassland

Grasslands – permanent Grazing land management

Forest converted to grass since 1990 – direct human induced

Deforestation

Forest converted to grass – pre-1990 conversion – direct human induced

Grazing land management

Crop converted to grass Grazing land management

Settlements Revegetation

Wetlands Revegetation

Accounting systems

Projected estimates of net emissions from the land sector are presented against both UNFCCC and Kyoto Protocol accounting frameworks.

The Australian Government currently reports land sector emissions under two separate accounting frameworks. One of these systems is used for reporting under the UNFCCC and a separate system is used for reporting under the Kyoto Protocol.

Both accounting frameworks are relevant for consideration in the development of post-2020 national emission reduction commitments.

UNFCCC reporting frameworkThe Australian government currently reports net emissions for the period 1990 onwards under its reporting commitments under the UNFCCC.

These estimates are published in the Australian Government’s National Inventory Report and provide the capability to make a comparison of the net emissions from Australia to the atmosphere, for any point in time, against the net emissions from Australia to the atmosphere for a chosen base year, such as 1990 or 2000.

As the accounting rules for the land sector that will be applicable for the post 2020 period are not yet clear, the UNFCCC classification and reporting system4 could be considered as an approach to land sector accounting for the post 2020 period.

4 When used for accounting this framework is referred to as ‘net-net’ accounting because it compares net emissions in the target year with net emissions in the base year.

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The United States uses this approach in its accounting of its 2020 national emission reduction commitment.

The concordance in Table 7, and the results reported in the Summary, show that the UNFCCC classification system could provide the basis for a broadly equivalent accounting framework to that provided using the classification system of the Kyoto Protocol.

An accounting framework based on the UNFCCC classification and reporting system would provide an estimate of the change in the net anthropogenic emissions to the atmosphere from Australia over time.

Kyoto Protocol accounting systemThe Kyoto Protocol accounting rules remain relevant as the Australian Government is a party to the Kyoto Protocol.

This approach will also be used by the European Union, Norway and Switzerland in their accounting against their second commitment period targets.

The accounting approach to land sector categories is more complex under the Kyoto Protocol.

In the first commitment period, 2008-2012, Deforestation and Afforestation/Reforestation were the only mandatory activities. The reporting of emission estimates against all other land activities was optional.

While many countries elected Forest Management, and a small number of countries elected other activities, the Australian Government did not elect any additional activities for the first commitment period.

In practice, the two mandatory activities accounted for by Australia in the first commitment period drew about one per cent of Australia’s land mass into the accounting framework. All other lands remained outside the reporting and accounting boundaries of the Kyoto Protocol.

In the second commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol, 2013-2020, the coverage of land sector activities will be more comprehensive for Australia and will include Deforestation, Afforestation/Reforestation, Forest Management, Crop Management, Grazing Land Management and Revegetation activities.

Forest Management is a mandatory activity for the second commitment period and all countries must report against this activity.

There is one additional electable activity under the second commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol – Drainage and rewetting of organic soils – for which no estimates have been provided in this paper. In Australia, nearly all soils are mineral soils and this type of activity would generally not qualify under the rules agreed for the second commitment period.

The Australian Government has indicated that it will use the Kyoto Protocol classification and emissions estimation system in its tracking towards its UNFCCC pledge to reduce emissions by 5 per cent below 2000 levels by 2020.

The Australian Government has pledged to reduce emissions by 5% below 2000 levels by 2020 and has indicated that, in tracking towards its commitment, it will use the Kyoto Protocol classification and emissions estimation system.

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Under the Kyoto Protocol, only net emissions from Deforestation are accounted for in the same way as emissions from other sources in the industrial and Agriculture sectors.

For the Kyoto Protocol itself, net emissions reported under the Kyoto Protocol classifications are used to either acquit an allocation of tradable allowances, known as Assigned Amount Units (AAUs), or to provide for the issuance of new credits known as Removal Units (RMUs).

Net emissions from Deforestation are treated like other national inventory sectors (energy, industrial processes, agriculture and waste) and lead to the cancellation of AAUs.5

For all other land categories the benchmarks differ depending on the category, as set out below.

For Afforestation/Reforestation, RMUs are issued for the amount of net removals in the commitment period.

For Forest Management, RMUs are issued for the difference between net emissions in the commitment period and net emissions in a projected Forest Management Reference Level based on a projection of forest net emission outcomes designed to be consistent with policies and practices as at December 2009. Australia’s Forest Management Reference Level is 2.3 Mt CO2-e per year.

RMU credits are issued up to a cap of 3.5 per cent of national emissions from the industrial and Agriculture sectors (around 120 Mt CO2-e for the second commitment period).

For Crop and Grazing Land Management, RMUs are issued for the difference, if negative, between net emissions in the commitment period and net emissions in the base year, 1990.

As only a small number of parties use the Kyoto Protocol rules, it is not clear that these rules will be applicable for the post 2020 period.

Emissions estimation systems

Australia’s national inventory systemAnthropogenic emissions and removals from all land sector activities are estimated using methods consistent with the 2013 Revised Supplementary Methods and Good Practice Guidance Arising from the Kyoto Protocol (IPCC, 2014) in conjunction with the 2006 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories (IPCC, 2006).

Australia’s national inventory system is managed by the Department of the Environment but relies on critical data inputs and analysis from a range of institutions including GeoScience Australia, the Bureau of Meteorology, the Australian National University, the Australian Bureau of Agriculture and Resource Economics and Sciences, various arms of the CSIRO as well as from published data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics.

Data on areas subject to land use change at a fine spatial scale are detected by the Department using US Geological Survey satellite imagery and geographic information systems utilising information, systems and services provided by GeoScience Australia, the CSIRO Mathematical and Information Sciences and a number of private contractors, cross-referenced with national data sources on land use.

Information on land use and management practices (e.g., tillage, stubble management) is drawn from data obtained from the Australian Bureau of Statistics at the standard area division 2 level

5 By virtue of Article 3.7 bis in the Kyoto Protocol treaty amendments, AAUs are issued for net emissions from Forest Conversion in the base year, consistent with the treatment of net emissions from the industrial and Agriculture sectors.

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and the land use mapping program of the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES).

Data on areas bunt by wildfire is obtained from analysis of AVHRR imagery obtained from Landgate.

The modelling framework for the estimation of emissions from the land sector in the national inventory is provided by the FullCAM modelling framework (Figure 2) (Department of the Environment, forthcoming).

The FullCAM model applies equations reported in Richards and Brack (2004), Brack et al. (2006) and Waterworth et al. (2007), as well as well-understood international modules such as the Roth-C model of soil carbon, and combines data on climate, soils and management practices, as well as land use changes observed from satellite imagery, to produce estimates of emissions and removals across the Australian landscape.

The exchanges of carbon loss and uptake between the terrestrial biological system and the atmosphere are accounted for in the full/closed cycle mass balance model which includes all biomass, litter and soil pools.

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Figure 2 Depiction of the FullCAM modelling system

The application of consistent datasets extending back to 1972 provides time series consistency to emissions estimation, reporting and accounting against emission reduction commitments.

Climate data from the Bureau of Meteorology for rainfall, minimum and maximum temperature, evaporation and solar radiation are processed each year by researchers at the Australian National University to generate monthly climate surfaces (maps) at 1 km resolution.

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Soil carbon data is taken from the Australian Soil Resources Information System (ASRIS), prepared by the CSIRO, and grass and crop yield estimates are prepared by modellers at the CSIRO Land and Water Division.

The national inventory is reviewed each year by international experts assembled by the UNFCCC secretariat and their reports are published on the UNFCCC website.

Anthropogenic emissionsUnder the UNFCCC and under the Kyoto Protocol countries are required to compile national inventories of anthropogenic emissions and removals.

The Kyoto Protocol second commitment period negotiations clarified anthropogenic emissions in two important ways.

For the second commitment period, it was agreed that it is undesirable for significant natural disturbances to carbon stocks—which involve either a non-anthropogenic event or a non-anthropogenic circumstance—to be required to be included within national inventories used to account for emission reduction commitments.

In Australia’s case, the most important natural disturbance relates to significant years of wildfire emissions. In 2003, for example, emissions from wildfire would have added around 40 per cent to the national inventory which, if included, would have made the management of any national emission reduction target challenging.

To manage the risks of fluctuating emissions and removals from natural disturbances, countries have the flexibility to set aside some portion of natural disturbance emissions—and the subsequent removals—from the calculation of the net emissions used to account for national emission reduction commitments, as long as this process does not generate an expectation of net credits or debits being created.

Not all net emissions are excluded under this provision, allowing the possibility of an incentive to be signalled to land managers to improve the management of the risks associated with these natural disturbances.

The natural disturbance provision of the Kyoto Protocol has been applied to the estimation of net emissions for both the Kyoto Protocol and UNFCCC classification systems throughout the projection period.

For the second commitment period, it was also clarified that a range of approaches could be used to manage inter-annual variability of net emissions caused by climate variability.

According to the IPCC, the aim of the emissions reporting exercise is to identify and report trends and systematic changes in net anthropogenic emissions resulting from changes in management practices over time.

Countries are encouraged to use higher tier methods (Tier 2 or Tier 3) to develop anthropogenic emissions coefficients or models to represent the effects on net emissions of changes in management practices rather than those of inter-annual variability and natural disturbances on carbon stocks.

Examples of approaches that may be used to estimate emissions and removals estimation are included in IPCC (2014).

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The clarifications made by the IPCC put the estimation of net emissions from the carbon cycle on the same footing as the estimation methods used for the nitrogen cycle.

The estimation processes for net emissions detailed in IPCC (2014) have been applied for both UNFCCC and Kyoto Protocol classification and reporting systems throughout the projection period.

Planned national inventory improvementsThe 2015 National Inventory Report (Department of the Environment, forthcoming) will include estimates of emissions and removals from a range of land-based activities for the first time.

Consequently, the national inventory estimates can be expected to be refined over time as new empirical data become available, as experience is gained, and as inventory measurement methods for these subsectors are enhanced in future years.

New national inventory methods will also be developed for certain land based activities, particularly in wetlands, that will permit the monitoring, reporting and eventual accounting for net emissions from a broader range of sources in future.

The national inventory is subject to continuous improvement processes. Estimation methods and data will continue to evolve over time to improve the accuracy, completeness and comparability of the inventory.

Core projections methodologyThe projections of the key variables across the land sector are prepared through economic models that link observed human activity to economic conditions and directly observed changes in policies and management practices to the physical properties and the responsiveness of the carbon biosphere of the land.

For this purpose, the department applies a reduced form, tier 2 version of the FullCAM model (Department of the Environment, forthcoming) and related models - explained in more detail below.

Data for the projections period is derived, where applicable, from ABARES and from CIE 2015.

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2. SECTORAL EMISSIONS PROJECTIONS2.1 Forest conversion to alternative land uses The conversion of forest to alternative land uses is an important contributor to Australia’s total net greenhouse gas emissions.

Forest conversion releases carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases when forest vegetation is cleared, burned or left to decay, and as soil carbon declines over time.

Net emissions from Forest Conversion are estimated to have been 80 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent in 2000 and are projected to be 54 million tonnes in 2020 and 43 million tonnes in 2035.

ClassificationsThe Forest conversion categories in the UNFCCC classification system include direct human-induced and permanent conversion of forest land to other land uses such as agriculture, mining or settlement expansion.

The categories also include instances where a decision has been taken to not replant a forest plantation and convert the land to an alternative use or where native forest has not regenerated after harvest.

The Forest conversion categories also include indirect conversion of forest land where forest cover loss has occurred after a fire, is considered permanent and, where, ultimately, land has been converted to an alternative use.

Under the Kyoto Protocol Deforestation is a subset of Forest Conversion and includes only the net emissions from direct human-induced forest conversion since 1 January 1990.

Net emissions from forest conversion prior to 1990 are accounted for under Grazing land Management and Cropland Management.

Estimation of emissions and removalsEmissions and removals from Forest land and for Forest Management are estimated using methods consistent with the 2013 Revised Supplementary Methods and Good Practice Guidance for LULUCF Arising from the Kyoto Protocol (IPCC, 2014) in conjunction with the 2006 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories (IPCC 2006).

In Australia’s national inventory, modelling of the effects of changes in management practices is undertaken with the FullCAM model at a fine spatial disaggregation. The modelling framework is explained in more detail in the National Inventory Report (Department of the Environment, forthcoming). A reduced form, tier 2 version of the model, used for Projections, can be used to illustrate the important processes below.

Emissions from Forest Conversion are estimated using FullCAM equations relating on-site biomass to spatial datasets of soil quality and climate variables in a ‘forest productivity index’ (Figure 3).

Figure 3 Forest productivity index, Australia

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Sources: Figure 1a: National Inventory Report 2012, vol. 2, p. 131. Figure 1b: Derived from data in the National Inventory Report 2012, described in vol. 2, appendix 7.C. For more information on the forest productivity index, see: Kesteven, J. et al (2004), Developing a National Forest Productivity Model, NCAS Technical Report No. 23, Australian Greenhouse Office.

The estimated above ground biomass prior to clearing at the sites where clearing has occurred can be illustrated in Figure 4, which shows a frequency distribution of the results, expressed as the area in the Deforestation account (in thousands of hectares) at every value of the modelled initial aboveground biomass density (in tonnes of dry matter per hectare, t dm / ha).

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Figure 4 Distribution of aboveground biomass for deforestation, Australia

The modelled estimates cover a large range of values. Most estimates are quite low, between around 25 and 85 t dm / ha, as most clearing since 1990 has occurred in areas of relatively sparse forest cover. The distribution also has a long tail extending to much higher values, however, as well as a ‘bulge’ around 100 to 160 t dm / ha. The lowest value in the distribution is 7 t dm / ha, and the highest value is 647 t dm / ha.

The mean of the distribution occurs at 80 t dm / ha, which represents the modelled average aboveground biomass density prior to first-time clearing in areas within the Kyoto deforestation account. The median is 59 t dm / ha, which is lower than the mean due to the effect of relatively infrequent units of land with high modelled initial biomass densities.

The results reflect an estimate of the long-term average aboveground biomass density that was present in these areas prior to the first clearing event—this can then be used to assist in the calculation of net emissions or carbon stocks.

Not all land cleared is first-time clearing but is land where vegetation is managed by repeated re-clearing for purposes of grazing or other agricultural activity.

Emissions from re-clearing of regenerated forests are typically lower than from first-time clearing since regenerated forests may not yet have reached their long-term average biomass densities.

In the national inventory, these effects of regrowing forests are modelled using FullCAM using equations reported in Department of the Environment forthcoming and, earlier, in Richards and Brack (2004), Brack et al. (2006) and Waterworth et al. (2007).

Typical values of biomass for areas of re-cleared land are 22 tonnes per hectare in woodlands (88 per cent of clearing); 49 tonnes per hectare in open forest (10 per cent of clearing); and 64 tonnes of biomass in closed forests (2 per cent of clearing).

Remote sensing of forests for re-plantings and regeneration is undertaken to identify these additional sources of forest conversion.

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Forest conversion to grasslands may also occur as a result of indirect management actions after wildfire. Where the forest is converted to an alternative land use subsequent to a fire, the net emissions associated with the conversion event are reported under Forest conversion.

Areas of indirect human-induced forest conversion from fire are detected using the Landsat satellite imagery and net emissions from these events are estimated using FullCAM.

Drivers of emissions and removalsThe management of native vegetation and the majority of forest conversion processes in Australia are governed by the Native Vegetation Framework, which is an intergovernmental agreement among all levels of Australian government under the Council of Australian Governments (COAG).

Individual jurisdictions implement the national Native Vegetation Framework commitments in accordance with their own individual circumstances and land management practices and legislative frameworks.

Examples of administrative processes include compliance with regional ecosystem plans established under legislation, individually negotiated property management plans or additional approval processes / permit processes for clearing. Permits for conversion of all forests to grasslands for agriculture are required in the Northern Territory, Western Australia, Victoria, South Australia and Tasmania, with minor exceptions. In Queensland and in New South Wales, the processes are more complex.

Within this national Native Vegetation Framework, economic considerations remain important drivers of the demand for forest conversion to alternative uses.

How much clearing?Forest conversion has declined over time in Australia (Figure 5) since the peak clearing periods of the 1970s. In 2013, an estimated 180 thousand hectares were cleared.

Figure 5 Forest Conversion, ha, Australia, 1990-2013

The decline in activity has mainly related to instances of first-time clearing of mature forests. The area subject to re-clearing of recently regrown forests has remained relatively steady over this period (Figure 5).

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Where does land clearing occur?During the period 1990-2013 forest conversions occurred predominantly in Queensland and New South Wales and to a lesser extent in Western Australia. The locations of forest conversion events detected between 1990 and 2013 are displayed in Figure 6.

Figure 6 Spatial distribution of Forest Conversion events, Australia, 1990-2013

Overall, emissions from forest conversion have declined significantly over time (Figure 7).

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Figure 7 Net emissions from Forest conversion, Australia, 1990-2013

Economic considerations remain important to understanding forest conversion outcomes within the operation of the national native vegetation framework and associated regulatory regimes. As illustrated in Figure 8, there is a strong relationship between the farmers’ terms of trade and land clearing. The data also indicate a lag of approximately one year in the relationship. Typically, an increase (or decrease) in the farmers’ terms of trade is followed by a corresponding increase (or decrease) in land clearing around one year later.6

Figure 8 Forest conversion and farmers’ terms of trade, Australia, 1973–2013

Domestic regulatory effects can dominate certain periods of the time series. In 2004, for example, the Queensland Government passed amendments to vegetation management regulations which imposed certain restrictions on clearing from 2007 onwards. The effects of this policy change can likely be seen in the drop in land clearing activity from 2007 onwards as well as the temporary

6 A linear least squares regression using yearly percentage changes in the land clearing area and the farmers’ terms of trade from 1974 to 2009, with a lag of one year, confirms that this relationship is statistically significant.

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increase immediately prior, between 2004 and 2006, in anticipation of the introduction of the new regulations (Figure 8).

Key projections assumptions and activity dataThese projections assume no further changes to regulatory systems in place and do not consider the effects of the Emissions Reduction Fund. Estimates include the effects of the Carbon Farming Initiative.

Within the existing regulatory framework, underlying trends in emissions for direct human-induced forest conversion to alternative land uses are largely determined by changes in economic conditions and from observations of past activity.

Projections of emissions from direct human-induced Forest Conversion are undertaken using a reduced form (Tier 2) version of the FullCAM model, as described above and in Department of the Environment forthcoming.

Projections of the farmers’ terms of trade for the period 2015-2017 are from ABARES (2014d) and held constant thereafter on the assumption that these values reflect long term equilibrium prices.

Additionally, recent regulatory reforms could be expected to place upward pressure on clearing activity. The quantification of the effects of recent changes in regulations have been estimated by expert judgement and have been modelled, inter alia, by rebasing the modelling start point to reflect 2010 clearing levels.

Indirect human induced forest conversion from fire has been assumed to continue at long term rates.

The projection assumes normal seasonal conditions.

Projection resultsThe trends in net emissions for two major elements of the UNFCCC classification Forest conversion to other lands are given in Table 8 and Figure 9.

The implications of these trends for net emissions from lands that qualify for the Kyoto Protocol classification Deforestation and for Grazing land Management are also provided.

For the Kyoto Protocol, the net emissions reported under Forest Conversion in 1990 will lead to the issuance of Assigned Amount Units and net emissions reported in the accounting period under Deforestation will result in assigned amount units (AAUs) being cancelled. The implication of the net emissions reported under Grazing land Management for projected RMU credits is presented in the Grasslands section of this paper.

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Table 8 Forest conversions and Deforestation, Australia, 1990-2035UNFCCC

classificationKyoto Protocol classifications

Forest conversion

Deforestation Grazing land and cropland management

Total

Net emissionsMt CO2-e / year

1990 136 - - 136

2000 80 - - 80

2008-12 52 49 4 52

2013-20 52 46 6 52

2020 54 47 7 54

2021-30 49 44 5 49

2030 47 42 4 47

2035 43 40 3 43

Figure 9 Forest conversion net emissions, Mt CO2-e, Australia, 1990-2035

2.2 Forest landsAnthropogenic emissions and removals on forest lands result from changes in management practices in forests and from changes in land use.

Disturbances to forest carbon stocks generate anthropogenic emissions and removals when associated with human activities—in particular, management for wood and wood products; management for the prevention of major natural disturbances (such as through prescribed burning) and from activity to enhance forest carbon stocks.

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Permanent changes in management practices can generate changes in the levels of soil carbon or woody biomass stocks over the longer term.

These effects on the national inventory are transitory and not permanent and, after a time, the rate of net emissions or removals associated with the changed management practice will approach zero. Nonetheless, the medium term impacts on the national inventory can be significant.

Virtually all developed countries already account for forests against their national emission reduction commitments. Australia has not done this and will only commence accounting for forests for the first time under the Kyoto Protocol for the second commitment period, 2013-2020.

Forests are also subject to disturbances unrelated to forest management for wood products. The other major human-induced disturbance in the inventory is from the conversion of forest to alternative land uses. The majority of the net emissions associated with these management changes are accounted for under Forest Conversion.

Disturbances affected by non-anthropogenic events or circumstances, such as significant wildfire, are treated as natural disturbances. Only a portion of emissions and subsequent removals from these disturbances are accounted for.

Net emissions from Forest land remaining Forest land are estimated to have been -12 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent in 2000 and are projected to be -27 million tonnes in 2020 and - 21 million tonnes in 2035.

ClassificationsForest land remaining forest land in the UNFCCC classification system includes lands that, in situ, contain vegetation with the potential that meet the criteria for a forest on a permanent basis. A forest has vegetation at least 2 metres high and canopy coverage at least 20 per cent. Forests include mangroves.

The Kyoto Protocol category Forest Management is a subset of Forest land remaining forest and includes only those forests managed under a system of practices designed to support commercial timber production such as harvest or silvicultural practices or practices that are designed to implement specific sink enhancement activities.

More precisely, forests included under this definition are:

multiple use forests;7

plantations established prior to 1990 (that is, those plantations that do not qualify for Afforestation/Reforestation);

privately managed native forest land where Forest Management activities (harvesting and silvicultural practices) have been observed to occur; and

sink enhancement activities.

All forest lands outside of the Multiple Use Forests and pre-1990 plantations are monitored for signs of harvesting and silvicultural practices in order to achieve complete accounting for these management practices.

7 Publicly owned state forest, timber reserves and other forest areas on which a range of forest values is managed, including timber harvesting, water supply, conservation of biodiversity, recreation and environmental protection. They are managed by state and territory agencies in accordance with state/territory Acts and regulations. (MPIG, 2008).

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If, as a result of these monitoring processes, a harvest event is observed, the net emissions are reported under the Forest Management category and all future net emissions on that land continue to be reported under that category.

If the human activity observed is a forest conversion to an alternative land use, then the net emissions are reported under the Forest Conversion category and all future net emissions on that land continue to be reported under that category.

Estimation of emissions and removalsEmissions and removals from Forest land and for Forest Management are estimated using methods consistent with the 2013 Revised Supplementary Methods and Good Practice Guidance for LULUCF Arising from the Kyoto Protocol (IPCC, 2014) in conjunction with the 2006 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories (IPCC 2006).

In Australia’s national inventory, modelling of the effects of changes in management practices on forest land is undertaken with a tier 2 version of the FullCAM model. The method is explained in more detail in the National Inventory Report (Department of the Environment, forthcoming).

Natural disturbancesWildfire is an important source of disturbance to forest carbon stocks. In Multiple Use Forests alone wildfire could generate a fluctuating emission of up to 30 Mt CO2e a year in Australia.

Areas subject to fire in Multiple Use Forests are presented in Figure 10.

Figure 10 Area burned, Multiple Use Forests, 1990-2013

Source: Department of the Environment (forthcoming)

Under the Kyoto Protocol, it has been recognised that significant wildfire emissions can be beyond the control of a country to manage in certain circumstances—as a result of non-anthropogenic events such as extreme climatic events, for example.

Over the longer term, these fluctuations in emissions are balanced by regrowth of forests.

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In the shorter term such fluctuations in net emissions caused by non anthropogenic events would have significant implications for the management of national emission reduction commitments and, therefore, it is desirable that these fluctuations in emissions are not included for this reason also.

The treatment of natural disturbances for Forest Management agreed for the Kyoto Protocol helps to manage the risk of these non-anthropogenic fluctuations on net emissions from Forest Management lands.

These significant fluctuations in net emissions from wildfire are excluded from the inventory as long as certain technical safeguards and accounting rules are met and the process does not generate an expectation of the creation of net credits or debits towards national emission reduction commitments.

In this report, the natural disturbance provision has been applied to the effect of wildfire on net emissions under the Kyoto Protocol classification Forest Management and also to the UNFCCC classification Forest land remaining forest.

The application of the provision allows for a maximum level of wildfire emissions of 6 Mt CO2e in a single year to enter Forest Management. The amount of removals from subsequent regrowth of forests that enters the inventory is also restricted accordingly.

Other forestsThe vast majority of Australian native forests are managed for purposes other than wood production. These forests continue to be monitored for evidence of specified management practices that would generate net emissions and which would also draw them into the Forest Management activity. In the absence of this evidence, however, these forests sit outside the scope of Forest Management.

Around 18 per cent of Australia’s native forests are to be found in conservation reserves. These forests have sometimes been managed for timber in the past and the forest is still recovering from these past harvesting disturbances. In the national inventory these forests are assumed to regrow at long term growth rates depending on age and location.

The effects of fire on net emissions from conservation reserves are currently reported in the national inventory, and these lands could potentially also be included within the scope of Forest Management in the future.

Aggregate net emissions from projects managed under the Government’s Emissions Reduction Fund (and, formerly, the Carbon Farming Initiative) for sink enhancement in forests will also be included under Forest Management.

In forests that occur in Australia’s savanna regions, non carbon dioxide emissions from prescribed burning activity and other fires are reported under Agriculture while net carbon dioxide emissions are reported under Grazing land Management. As these net carbon dioxide emissions occur on forest lands, under the UNFCCC classifications these latter effects are reported under Forest land.

The remaining ‘Other’ forests are assumed to be mature and, unless disturbed by an observed specified management practice or disturbance, remain at equilibrium carbon stock levels in the inventory and in the projections.

Drivers of emissions and removalsThe management of Australia’s forests is guided by the 1992 National Forest Policy Statement.

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Net emission outcomes reflect the parameters agreed under the governing framework and economic pressures from variations in the demand for Australian products.

Demand for Australian wood and wood products becomes critical to the long term projection for net emission outcomes from Forest Management given the significant supplies from hardwood plantations over the long term and the possibilities for at least limited substitution in supplies between hardwood plantations and supplies from native forests.

This substitutability between hardwood plantations and native forests means that the projection for net emissions from Forest land and from Land converted to forests (and between Forest Management and Afforestation/Reforestation) are closely related.

Governing frameworkAs signatories to the National Forest Policy Statement, the Australian, state and territory governments are committed to the sustainable management of all Australian forests, whether the forest is on public or private land, or reserved or available for production.8

Harvesting in native forests in Australia is regulated both at the national and State level. Regional Forest Agreements that address demand for timber production, the needs of forest-dependent communities and conservation values were signed between 1997 and 2001. These agreements were designed to support the management of forests for 20 years.

In 2013 the area of native forest managed as Multiple Use Forests was 9.25 million hectares. The total amount of land that met the definition of Forest Management was 10.98 million hectares (Table 9).

Table 9 Forest management land area9

Forest classification Area (M ha)Multiple Use Forests12 9.25

Private harvested native forests 0.91

Pre-1990 plantations 0.82

Total 10.98

Demand and supply conditions for Australian wood productsAustralian production reversed a long term upwards trend in 2008 and has declined in recent years (ABARES, 2014a). Total production declined by 19 per cent in the five years since 2008 (Figure 11).

Demand factors such as the international price of harvested wood products, the value of the Australian dollar and shifts in demand patterns, especially between Japan and China, have contributed to the decline in harvesting. In particular international demand for Australian woodchips declined sharply from 2011, prompted in part by reduced competitiveness due to the high Australian dollar.

8 See the Department of Agriculture: http://www.agriculture.gov.au/forestry/policies/rfa.9 The area of land falling into the Forest Management classification can increase over time due to the re-classification of land tenure (e.g. Multiple Use Forests) or additional areas of privately owned native forests become subject to forest management activities. Under the Kyoto Protocol reporting framework Forest Management land can be re-classified as Deforestation if Deforestation is observed to occur.

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There are signs, however, that demand for Australian wood and wood products is again on the increase.

Recent trade data for the year from July 2013 show a 33 per cent rise in the value of hardwood woodchip exports from the preceding year due to increased volumes (ABARES, 2014c). ABARES also report that wood export volumes reached a record high in the 2013-2014 financial year due to declining Australian dollar and increasing demand in China.

Domestically, there has also been an increase in activity in the housing market in many capital cities, and data from the ABS (ABS, 2014) indicates that the number of new dwellings approved has risen for five months to October 2014, indicating that domestic demand for sawn timber is also likely to rise in the short term.

Supply of wood products originates from three sources which has a bearing on whether net emissions are classified as Forest Management or Afforestation/Reforestation.

hardwood plantations – largely planted since 1990 – net emissions from this source are classified under Afforestation/Reforestation;

softwood plantations – largely planted prior to 1990 – net emissions from this source are classified under Forest management; and

native forests - multiple use forests – net emissions from this source are classified under Forest management.

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Figure 11 Estimated volume of wood products supplied, Australia, 1990-2013

Source: ABARES (2014a)

Supply of wood products - hardwood plantation production / post 1990 plantationsThe supply of wood products from hardwood plantations have risen over 1990-2013 (Figure 11). These plantations were mostly planted under the incentive of tax concession schemes since 1990 (and therefore are classified as Land converted to forest and Afforestation/Reforestation).

Available forecasts suggest there is scope to significantly increase production from hardwood plantations over the medium term. The forecast of plantation log supply for the period 2010-2054 by ABARES (2012) shows that the hardwood log supply available for harvesting in the 5 years 2010 to 2014 (10 M m3 yr-1) significantly exceeded actual production (5.5 M m3 in 2013) (Figure 12).

Total plantation hardwood supply is predicted by ABARES to increase to over 14 M m3 yr-1 in the 20202024 period before contracting in the five years to 2029 (although still greater than 11 M m3 yr-

1) due to the age class of plantations and historical variations in the area planted.

One consequence of this supply situation is that grower intention surveys indicate that hardwood plantations are less likely to be replanted than before. Nevertheless, this decline in re-planting is unlikely to impact supplies of hardwood plantation supplies until at least the period 2024-2030.

Supply of wood products - softwood plantations / pre-1990 plantationsThe supply of wood products from softwood plantations has remained relatively steady over 1990-2013. Harvesting has largely matched forecasted volumes (ABARES, 2012; and ABARES, 2014b) and it is therefore not expected that there is significant capacity to increase supply from the softwood plantation estate.

Supply of wood products - native forestsThe supply of wood products from native forests has fallen over 1990-2013 (Figure 11). Hardwood pulplog and woodchip supply from plantations has been displacing native forest production for some years—but there will likely be limits to this substitution process.

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Hardwood plantations produce mainly pulplogs (84 per cent of hardwood production in 2013, compared to 11 per cent sawlogs) (ABARES, 2014b) whereas harvesting of native forests produces both saw and veneer logs as well as pulplogs (51 per cent and 44 per cent in 2013, respectively, with saw and veneer log production exceeding pulplog production for the first time in 2012) (ABARES, 2014a). As a result, increasing supply from plantation hardwood is likely have a more limited impact on native forest harvesting for saw and veneer logs.

Key projections assumptions and activity data These projections assume no further changes to regulatory systems in place and do not consider the effects of the Emissions Reduction Fund. Estimates include the effects of the Carbon Farming Initiative.

Assumptions about key economic variables are provided by the Centre for International Economics (CIE, 2015).

Demand for Australian saw and veneer log production is assumed to recover to recent consumption levels in the next few years and then to increase consistent with long term growth rates at 0.5 per cent per year.

Pulpwood production is assumed to be driven by forecast plantation supply. Hardwood plantation pulp log production is assumed to substitute production from native forests, with a lower bound on native forest pulp log production controlled by the volume harvested as secondary product of harvesting for saw and veneer logs.

Planting rates for post 1990 plantations are assumed to continue at the historically low rates observed since 2011-12 (ABARES, 2014b).

Available supplies of wood and wood products and estimates of net emissions were developed using projections of the FullCAM tier 2 model as described in Department of the Environment (forthcoming).

The tier 2 model is based on a series of 46 plot files drawn from within the FullCAM Tier 3 modelling framework. The selected plot files are representative of the most common species and management regimes within each state and National Plantation Inventory (NPI) region. The area represented in each NPI region by each plot was determined from the land sector remote sensing program.

Harvesting rates for softwood and hardwood plantations are determined by the standard rotation lengths for each species.

Net emissions from wildfire on Forest Management land are assumed to equal the background net emission level included in the Forest Management Reference Level (and, therefore, are assumed to have a neutral impact in this projection).

The rate of net removals by forests in conservation reserves is assumed to be unchanged throughout the historical and projection period.

The level of prescribed burning for wildfire management is assumed to continue at the levels calculated for the reference level.

The level of stock removed from forests for fuelwood is also assumed to continue at reference level rates.

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Forest lands not under Forest management or subject to a Forest conversion event are assumed to experience historical levels of natural disturbance such that net emissions for these lands occur at long run average levels for the projection period. Data for the national inventory, 1990-2013, have been estimated using the natural disturbance provision.

Projections resultsThe trends in net emissions for three major elements of the UNFCCC classification Forest land remaining forest are given in Table 10. The implication of these trends for net emissions from lands that qualify for the Kyoto Protocol classification Forest Management is also provided. The combined Forest land remaining forest and Land converted to forest trend is shown in Figure 12.

The implication of the net emissions reported under Forest Management lands for the RMU credits projected to be issued under Forest Management and Afforestation/Reforestation is presented in Table 11, highlighting the synergies that exist between the two categories.

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Table 10 Forest land and Forest Management net emissions 1990-2035UNFCCC classification

Forest landsKyoto

Protocol Classificatio

nForest

Management lands

Conservation Reserves

Prescribed and wildfire

Total Forest Management

Net emissions Net emissions

Mt CO2-e / year Mt CO2-e / year

1990 -17 -18 -3 -38 -17

2000 -2 -18 8 -12 -2

2008-12 -9 -18 11 -16 -9

2013-2020

-17 -18 7 -28 -17

2020 -15 -18 6 -27 -15

2021-30 -7 -19 6 -19 -7

2030 -8 -19 6 -20 -8

2035 -9 -19 6 -21 -9

Figure 12 Forest land and Land converted to forest, net emissions, 1990-2035

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Table 11 Forest Management and Afforestation/Reforestation: actual and projected RMU net credits 2008-2020

Afforestation / Reforestation

Forest Management Total

Mt CO2-e / year2008-12 -22 n.a. -22

2013-2020 -8 -15 -23

2.3 Land conversion to forestAnthropogenic emissions and removals on Land converted to forest land result primarily from changes in land use but also result from changes in management practices over time.

Once established, Land converted to forest is subject to the same pressures from disturbances and changes in management practices as Forest land remaining forest land.

Like Forest land remaining forest land, disturbances to forest carbon stocks on Land converted to forest land generates anthropogenic emissions and removals from human activities – in particular, management for wood and wood products; management for the prevention of major natural disturbances (such as through prescribed burning) and from activity to enhance carbon stocks.

As with Forest land, permanent changes in management practices generate changes in the levels of woody biomass stocks over the longer term.

The national inventory does not record the new carbon stock levels directly, but it is affected during the transition from one carbon stock level to another from changes in the flow of carbon to and from the land.

The effect on the national inventory from enhanced removals is not permanent and, after a time, as these forests reach maturity, the rate of removals associated with the conversion to forest will approach zero.

These forests are also subject to other disturbances. The other major human-induced disturbance is from the conversion of forest to alternative land uses. The net emissions associated with these management changes are accounted for under Forest Conversion.

Net emissions from Land converted to forest in 2000 are estimated to be - 12 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent and are projected to be - 1 million tonnes in 2020 and - 9 million tonnes in 2035.

ClassificationsThe UNFCCC classification Land converted to forest land includes land converted from an alternative use, like grassland, to a forest.

The forests under Land converted to forest land may be established through planting events either for commercial timber or for other reasons, known as ‘environmental plantings’, or by regeneration from natural seed sources on lands regulated for the protection of forests.

The Kyoto Protocol classification Afforestation/Reforestation is a subset of Land converted to forest land and includes only those forests established since 1 January 1990 on land that was clear of forest on 31 December 1989.

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Forests established prior to 1990, such as in a plantation, are accounted for under Forest Management. Net emissions from forests that have regenerated from natural seed sources in areas of grasslands not regulated for the protection of forests (unless they are managed under the support of a government program) are assumed to have not undergone a change in land use and are not included within Land converted to forest land.

Estimation of emissions and removalsEmissions and removals from Land converted to forest land and from Afforestation/Reforestation are estimated using methods consistent with the 2013 Revised Supplementary Methods and Good Practice Guidance for LULUCF Arising from the Kyoto Protocol (IPCC, 2014) in conjunction with the 2006 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories (IPCC, 2006).

In the national inventory, modelling of the effects of changes in management practices is undertaken with the FullCAM model at a fine spatial disaggregation and is explained in more detail in the National Inventory Report (Department of the Environment, forthcoming).

For plantations, the modelling methods and calibration were published in peer reviewed literature (Waterworth et al, 2007; Waterworth and Richards, 2008).

The plantations model takes into account the age, plantation type, management and site conditions to estimate emissions and removals. The native forest regrowth model is supplemented to include functions that represent Type 1 and Type 2 growth responses (Snowdon and Waring, 1984) and the impact of using non-endemic species (Department of the Environment, forthcoming). Type 1 management practices advance or retard stand development (effectively age) but do not increase underlying site productivity over the life of the rotation (e.g. weed control at establishment). Type 2 treatments increase (or decrease) a site’s carrying capacity in the longer term (e.g. phosphorus application).

As the carbon increment estimates are based on aboveground biomass, there is a need to correct for the increment in belowground biomass (roots) to provide an estimate of total live biomass. FullCAM calculates the partitioning using an empirical approach derived from expansion factors reported in Snowdon et al. (2000) and Mokany et al. (2006). This method allows allocation to vary between sites and species within set ranges based on age, site productivity and level of stand development.

Studies of the carbon fractions of above and below ground biomass components for Australian vegetation were used to provide the parameters for the carbon fractions of tree components in the model (Gifford, 2000a and 2000b).

A comprehensive database of the plantation management practices used in Australia since 1970 has been implemented for each tree species within each region and then spatially and temporally referenced to link to information on site productivity and previous land-use.

The turnover rate of leaves and fine roots affects both the amount of fine litter on the forest floor and subsequently most of the contribution to soil carbon. Soil carbon is estimated using the fully spatially explicit approach described in Department of the Environment (forthcoming) with some modifications to the base input data to suit the modelling for post-1990 plantations.

The model for environmental plantings and mallee plantings is based on a CSIRO report commissioned by the Department of the Environment to gather biomass data for mallee eucalypt and native mixed species plantings (mixed species environmental plantings) for the purpose of calibrating the FullCAM model for these planting types.

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This project involved the collection and screening of data from a range of sources and to collect high precision measurements of biomass through destructive sampling. In addition to this work, CSIRO analysed the collected data and specified a new set of statistically valid FullCAM growth parameters for mixed species environmental plantings and mallee eucalypt plantings (CSIRO, 2013).

The model for regeneration of forests from natural seed sources is based on modelling of native forest regrowth using FullCAM default parameters for native forests.

Drivers of emissions and removals

Plantations for timberThe key drivers of Afforestation/Reforestation removals are the rate of plantation establishment since 1990 (see Figure 13) and spatial variables relating to soil and climate.

The rate of plantation establishment experienced a large expansion during 1990-2005 in response, in part, to incentives for plantation establishment such as the taxation treatment of Managed Investment Schemes. Most new plantations were hardwood plantations. In recent years, very low plantings have been observed caused by perceptions of oversupply and the dampened demand conditions for forest products.

Figure 13 Annual area of new plantings 1990-2013

Source: Department of the Environment

National aggregate removals were highest in the period 2010-11 (Figure 15) due to the lag of several years between planting and the maximum rate of removals by newly established plantations.

In the last few years, however, net removals have reached a turning point and have begun to diminish as the trees planted in early years pass their maximum growth rates and as increased harvest rates begin to dominate the trend.

Figure 14 Annual net emissions from Land converted to forest 1990-2013

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Environmental plantingsIn addition to commercial timber plantings, new forests may be planted for other, environmental, purposes. These plantings are largely fostered and incentivised by numerous government programs and regulatory approaches operating within Australia’s Native Vegetation Framework, released in December 2012. The Native Vegetation Framework guides native vegetation management across the Australian landscape.10

Programs and regulatory approaches that encourage environmental plantings include The 20 Million Trees Program, the Green Army Program and offsets created under State vegetation management acts or major project approval processes. The Emissions Reduction Fund will also be able to be used to encourage these outcomes.

Regeneration from natural seed sourcesThe regeneration of forests from natural seed sources are identified in areas consistent with the intentions of land use regulatory systems and reflect the deliberate decisions of land managers to not maintain pasture for grazing. To qualify as a forest land converted from natural seed sources, the land:

must have been clear of forest in the period 1972-1989; and

must have converted to forest land after 1 January 1990.

These conversions can be supported through a range of government programs and regulatory processes including from offsets created under State vegetation management acts or under major project approval processes. In future, the Emissions Reduction Fund will also be able to be used to encourage these outcomes.

An additional 2.18 million hectares of naturally regenerating forests have been identified and are included in the Land converted to forest land classification.

Net emissions from these lands are reported under the UNFCCC classification Land converted to forest land.

10 See ‘Australia’s Native Vegetation Framework’, Department of the Environment: http://www.environment.gov.au/land/publications/australias-native-vegetation-framework.

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Under the Kyoto Protocol, the net emissions on these lands are classified as Afforestation/Reforestation.

Over the projection period the removals associated with these forests are estimated to be 3 Mt CO2

per year, equivalent to a growth rate of approximately 1.5 t CO2 per hectare per year. This is a low rate of annual growth as this vegetation will be largely regenerating in water limited environments of inland regions.

WildfireThe natural disturbances provision of the Kyoto Protocol applies to Afforestation/Reforestation lands and, in this paper, it is also assumed to apply to Land converted to forest lands.

Key projections assumptions and activity dataKey assumptions for the projections have been identified in the Forest lands section.

Projection resultsThe trends in net emissions for three major elements of the UNFCCC classification Land converted to forest are given in Table 12.

The implication of these trends for net emissions from lands that qualify for the Kyoto Protocol classification Afforestation/Reforestation is also provided.

The implication of these results for the projected RMU credits to be issued under Afforestation/Reforestation was presented in Table 11.

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Table 12 Land converted to forest and Afforestation/Reforestation, net emissions, 1990-2035

UNFCCC classifications Kyoto Protocol classificationLand

converted to forest

(plantings)

Land directly

converted to

forest(natural

seed sources)

Land converte

d to forest

pre-1990

Total Afforestation /

Reforestation

Total


1990 1 0 0 1 1 1

2000 -10 -1 -1 -12 -12 -12

Average 2008-12

-16 0 0 -16 -15 -15

Average 2013-2020

-6 -3 0 -9 -9 -9

2020 1 -3 0 -2 -2 -2

Average 2021-2030

-3 -3 0 -6 -5 -5

2030 -2 -3 0 -5 -5 -5

2035 -7 -3 0 -10 -10 -10

2.4 Crop landsAnthropogenic emissions and removals on croplands occur as a result of changes in management practices on cropping lands, from changes in crop type—particularly woody crops—and from changes in land use.

Management practices that lead to additional biomass being available for input into the soil, or which slow the rate of carbon loss from the soil, can lead to better carbon outcomes on the land than would otherwise be the case.

Permanent changes in management practices generate changes in the levels of soil carbon or woody biomass stocks over the longer term.


These effects on the national inventory are transitory and are not permanent and, after a time (25 years), the rate of net emissions or removals in the national inventory associated with the changed management practice will approach zero.

Nonetheless, the impacts of changes in practices on the national inventory can be significant.

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The United States, Canada and the European Union all currently account for soil carbon against their national emission reduction commitments.

Classifications Crop lands in the UNFCCC classification system are lands where the system of practices in which agricultural crops are grown and on land that is set-aside or temporarily not being used for crop production.

Net emissions due to changes in management practices on Crop lands are estimated to have been -9 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent in 2000 and are projected to be 3 million tonnes in 2020 and 1 million tonnes in 2035.

The cropland category includes continuous cropping lands, lands which are cropped in rotation with pastures as well as lands with woody perennial crops such as orchards or olive groves.

Net emissions from the conversion of grass to crop land are included under this category.

Net emissions from the conversion of forest to cropland have been included under the Forest Conversion category.

The land under Cropland management under the Kyoto Protocol is the same as Crop land under the UNFCCC classification.

Anthropogenic emissions and removals from Cropland management are estimated from changes in specified management practices including:

total cropping area;

crop type and rotation (including pasture leys);

stubble management, including burning practices;

tillage techniques;

fertiliser application and irrigation;

application of green manures (particularly legume crops);

soil ameliorants (application of manure, compost or biochar) as well as from

changes in land use.

Carbon dioxide emissions from the application of lime are reported under Agriculture. Nitrous oxide emissions from the application of fertiliser are also reported under Agriculture.

Estimation of emissions and removalsEmissions and removals from crop land activities are estimated using methods consistent with the 2013 Revised Supplementary Methods and Good Practice Guidance for LULUCF Arising from the Kyoto Protocol (IPCC, 2014) in conjunction with the 2006 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories (IPCC, 2006).

According to the IPCC, in all cases, the aim of the estimation processes is to identify and report trends and systematic changes in the carbon stocks resulting from changes in management practices over time. More explicitly, countries are encouraged to use higher tier methods to

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develop emissions coefficients or models to represent the effects of management practices rather than those of inter-annual variability and natural disturbances on carbon stocks.11

Management practice change has been monitored using the Australian Bureau of Statistics’ (ABS) Agricultural Resource Management Survey (ARMS), which surveyed 33 000 of Australia’s 135 000 agricultural businesses (funded by the Department of Agriculture). Data from the ABS agricultural censuses (which surveyed all agricultural businesses) have been used with data from the 2007–08 and 2009–10 ARMS to track trends in management practices.

Modelling of the effects of changes in management practices on cropland is undertaken with the FullCAM model and is explained in more detail in the National Inventory Report (Department of the Environment, forthcoming).

Drivers of emissions and removalsThe national inventory reports estimates of emissions and removals from changes in management practices on cropland.

The ABS data on management practices show that there have been widespread changes in farming practices across Australia’s agricultural lands in the period since 1990. In particular, there has been a significant increase in the area under crops (Figure 15) as well as shifts towards low tillage techniques (Figure 16) and changes to stubble management (Figure 17).

Shifts in management practice across the agricultural lands reflect international trends and have been fostered by government-funded research, extension and information programs. For example, the Department of Agriculture has previously approved $448 million for projects to improve land management practices on farm and to provide information about land management practices that help to improve soil condition.

11 The IPCC 2014 supplementary guidance provides a number of examples of appropriate statistical techniques are provided on how to achieve this. In this report, two simulations of the FullCAM model are undertaken to isolate the impact of human activity on emissions – one simulation with changes in management practices and one with management practices held constant at 1990 levels. The difference between the two time series is accounted for. This makes the estimate of soil carbon emissions analogous to how emissions of nitrous oxide from fertiliser application are already calculated. This approach also reduces the risks associated with having an unusually “wet” base year or “dry” condition during the commitment period. It also provides greater consistency between Parties as it brings the higher tier methods into alignment with the Tier 1 and Tier 2 methods by controlling for the impacts of the white noise associated with climate variability.

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Figure 15 Cropland area 1970 – 2013

Source: ABS yearbooks

Figure 16 Cropland area subject to no-till management 1970 – 2013

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Figure 17 Cropland area subject to types of stubble management, 1970 – 2013

Source: DoE modelling (FullCAM) of original data from Australian Bureau of Statistics (2000, 2002, 2008, 2013), Llewellyn and D’Emden (2009) and Llewellyn et al. (2012).

Key projections assumptions, methods and activity dataThese projections assume no further changes to regulatory systems in place and do not consider the effects of the Emissions Reduction Fund.

The area under cropping is assumed to increase consistent with the outlook for projected increases in agricultural crop production (CIE, 2015).

Management practices on croplands are held constant at current levels throughout the projection period—the most important being the area of stubble management and reduced tillage techniques.

Normal seasonal conditions are assumed. Climate signals are factored out as far as possible in order to isolate the effects of changes in human management practices since 1990 on net emissions from cropland management.

Projection resultsThe trends in net emissions for the UNFCCC classification Crop lands are given in Table 13.

The implication of these trends for net emissions from lands that qualify for the Kyoto Protocol classification Cropland Management is also provided in Table 13.

The implication of these results for the projected RMU credits to be issued under Cropland Management is presented in Table 4.

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Table 13 Crop land and Crop Management net emissions, 1990-2035UNFCCC classification Kyoto Protocol

classificationCrop lands Crop land management


1990 0 0

2000 -9 -9

Average 2013 - 2020 -1 -1

2020 0 0

Average 2021-30 3 3

2030 2 2

2035 0 0

2.5 Grass lands Anthropogenic emissions and removals on grasslands result from changes in management practices on grass lands, particularly from changes in pasture, grazing and fire management; changes in woody biomass elements and from changes in land use.

Management practices that lead to additional biomass being available for input into the soil, or which slow the rate of carbon loss from the soil, can lead to better carbon outcomes on the land than they would otherwise be.

Permanent changes in management practices generate changes in the levels of soil carbon or woody biomass stocks over the longer term.


These effects on the national inventory are transitory and are not permanent and, after a time (25 years), the rate of net emissions or removals associated with the changed management practice will approach zero.

Nonetheless, in Australia, the effects of changes in management practices on net emissions across grasslands can be significant.

The United States and the European Union also currently account for soil carbon against their national emission reduction commitments.

Net emissions from changes in management practices under Grass lands are estimated to have been 2 million tonnes carbon dioxide equivalent in 2000 and are projected to be 2 million tonnes in 2020 and 5 million tonnes in 2035.

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Classifications Grass land in the UNFCCC classification system includes lands with vegetation that does not meet the criteria for a forest and is not land classified as crop, wet or other land.

Under the Kyoto Protocol, Grazing Land Management is the system of practices on land used for livestock production aimed at manipulating the amount and type of vegetation and livestock produced.

Grazing land management lands include grasslands.

Anthropogenic emissions and removals from Grass lands and Grazing land management are estimated from changes in specified management practices including:

the area under grasslands;

pasture management from fertilisers, irrigation and other inputs and seed selection;

the area of grassland under grazing;

changes in grazing intensity;

woody biomass management; and

fire management.

The effects of fire management from prescribed burning and other fires on Australia’s savanna lands that are lands that also meet the definition of forest are incorporated under Grazing land Management. As these emissions occur on forest lands they are also reported under Forest lands under the UNFCCC classification system. Non carbon dioxide emissions from these fires are reported under the Agriculture sector of the Projections report and are not included here.

Estimation of emissions and removalsEmissions and removals from Grass lands and from Grazing land management activities are estimated using methods consistent with the 2013 Revised Supplementary Methods and Good Practice Guidance for LULUCF Arising from the Kyoto Protocol (IPCC, 2014) in conjunction with the 2006 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories (IPCC, 2006).

Countries are encouraged to use higher tier methods to develop emissions coefficients or models to represent the effects of management practices rather than those of inter-annual variability and natural disturbances on carbon stocks.12

As with croplands, management practice change has been monitored using the Australian Bureau of Statistics’ (ABS) Agricultural Resource Management Survey (ARMS).

Estimates of the area under grassland are determined using Landsat satellite data in conjunction with ABARES land use information. Estimates of the area under grazing are determined from ABS data.

12 The IPCC (2014) supplementary guidance provides a number of examples of appropriate statistical techniques are provided on how to achieve this. In this report, two simulations of the FullCAM model are undertaken to isolate the impact of human activity on emissions – one simulation with changes in management practices and one with management practices held constant at 1990 levels. The difference between the two time series is accounted for. This makes the estimate of soil carbon emissions analogous to how emissions of nitrous oxide from fertiliser application are already calculated. This approach reduces the risks associated with having an unusually “wet” base year or “dry” condition during the commitment period. It also provides greater consistency between Parties as it brings the higher tier methods into alignment with the Tier 1 and Tier 2 methods by controlling for the impacts of the white noise associated with climate variability.

51

Estimation of the effects of changes in management practices on carbon stocks is undertaken with the FullCAM model and is explained in more detail in the National Inventory Report (Department of the Environment forthcoming).

Within grasslands, changes in the area of woody vegetation associated with changes in management practices are routinely monitored using data from the Landsat satellite data archives. Applying the techniques learned from forest cover mapping, a national mapping program is used to assess both the extent, and changes in extent, of sparse woody vegetation.

Estimates of area burned are determined from AVHRR imagery available from Landgate. The aspects of fire management practices modelled in the national inventory include the seasonality and the frequency of burning.

Methods for the estimation of net emissions from changes in woody biomass and from fire management within savannas are given in the National Inventory Report (Department of the Environment, forthcoming).

Drivers of emissions and removalsActivity data on management practices from the ABS show that there have been widespread changes in pasture management practices across Australia’s agricultural lands in the period since 1990, for example, from improved pasture through fertiliser application.

Shifts in management practice across the agricultural lands have been fostered by government-funded research, extension and information programs. For example, the Department of Agriculture has previously approved $448 million for projects to improve land management practices on farm and to provide information about land management practices that help to improve soil condition.13

The international literature which underpins the 2013 Revised Supplementary Methods and Good Practice Guidance for LULUCF Arising from the Kyoto Protocol (IPCC, 2014) and the 2006 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories (IPCC, 2006), suggests that the impact of grazing on emissions and removals from grazing land activities can be important. In this paper, however, the net effects of changes in grazing pressures on carbon stocks have not been estimated. The Department of the Environment will be conducting analysis of the available empirical literature to underpin estimates of the effects of grazing for future updates of the national inventory and projections.

Changes in woody biomass management Within grasslands, as shown in Figure 18, the total area of sparse woody vegetation has remained relatively constant over time with annual loss largely mirrored by annual gains. Net emissions from these vegetation types approximate a steady state with relatively small variations over the longer term.

13 See ‘Reporting on trends in improved land management practices’, Department of Agriculture: http://www.agriculture.gov.au/natural-resources/soils/reporting-on-trends-in-improved-land-management-practices

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Figure 18 Annual transitions between sparse vegetation and non-woody land.

Source: Department of the Environment estimates

Figure 19 Spatial distribution of the frequency of fires across Australia


Changes in fire managementNet emissions from fire management are affected by the seasonality and frequency of burning. The frequency of fire across Australia’s grasslands is mapped in Figure 19. Future trends in emissions will be influenced by changes in management practices and, for example, methods have already been developed for the Carbon Farming Initiative in this field.

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Key projections assumptions, methods and activity dataThese projections assume no further changes to regulatory systems in place and do not consider the effects of the Emission Reduction Fund.

Management practices on grasslands are held constant at current levels throughout the projection period - the most important being the area of improved pasture.

The area converted from grass to cropping is assumed to increase in line with the outlook for projected increases in agricultural crop production (CIE, 2015).

No changes in grazing practices are assumed.

The effects of fire management on woody biomass stocks in Australia’s grasslands are modelled assuming no changes in the seasonality and frequency of fire.

The net conversion of grassland to sparse woody grassland is assumed to be zero.

Normal seasonal conditions are assumed. Climate signals are factored out as far as possible in order to isolate the effects of changes in human management practices since 1990 on net emissions from Grazing land management.

Projection resultsThe trends in net emissions for major elements of the UNFCCC classification Grassland and Grazing land Management are given in Table 14.

The implication of these trends for net emissions from lands that qualify for the Kyoto Protocol classification Grazing land Management is also provided and shown in Table 14.

The implication of these results for the projected RMU credits to be issued under Grazing land Management, along with those from Cropland Management is presented in Table 4.

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Table 14 Grass and Grazing land management emissions 1990-2035UNFCCC

classification grassland

UNFCCC Forest

Conversion

UNFCCC Forest Land

Kyoto Protocol

Total Pre-1990 conversion to

grassland

Fire management on savannas

Grazing land management


1990 -4 31 2 29

2000 2 6 2 10

Average 2008-12 -4 3 3 2

Average 2013-20 0 4 2 6

2020 2 4 2 8

Average 2021-30 3 3 2 8

2030 4 2 2 9

2035 5 2 2 8

2.6 Revegetation Revegetation is the enhancement of vegetation that does not qualify for afforestation/reforestation or grazing management. This category ensures that any project designed to enhance vegetation no matter where its location may be counted towards the national target. For example, these projects might occur in urban or wetland areas.

2.7 Wetland management Wetlands potentially constitute a significant source of emissions, particularly of methane. Methods to monitor and estimate emissions are still under development both internationally and domestically.

Under the Kyoto Protocol, the inclusion of any wetlands activity in the coverage of national targets was restricted to carbon dioxide emissions and removals from the drainage and re-wetting of wetlands with organic soils. Australia has few organic soils and this activity has not been included in the accounting for the second commitment period 2013-2020.

No data currently exist in the Australian inventory for emission sources in wetlands. Emissions from the clearing of mangrove forests are one exception, which, because they meet the definition of a forest, are included under Deforestation. Other sources currently not incorporated in the national inventory include the management of seagrass and other coastal areas that do not meet the definition of a forest or of a grassland.

In December 2013, the UNFCCC Conference of Parties adopted the use of the IPCC Guidance on the estimation of emissions from Wetlands to be used by countries in their national inventories on a voluntary basis from 2015.

No country has yet made a comprehensive assessment of their emissions from wetlands. The Department of the Environment, however, is planning to develop methods and data to support the monitoring of wetlands and to develop net emission estimates for these lands from 2017.

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The Government will be able to give active consideration to the inclusion of this source of emissions in the accounting towards the national target once sufficient experience with the monitoring and estimation of emissions has been gained.

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