USING HISTORY TO SHAPE THE FUTURE -- OPERATION DOUBLE
STEAL
WORLD WIDE CHEMICAL CONFERENCEJUNE, 2000
OPERATION DOUBLE STEAL
FUTURE USE OF CHEMICAL AND BIOLOGICAL WEAPONS WILL DEPEND ON WHAT LESSONS ARE DRAWN FROM HISTORY
TO USE THESE WEAPONS, ONE MUST KNOW THE EFFECT THEY HAVE HAD IN THE PAST
CONSIDER THE BALCK AND THE SPANISH FLU
OPERATION DOUBLE STEAL
THE BLACK DEATH EUROPE BEFORE THE PLAGUE THE RISE OF CITIES THE RISE OF COMMERCE THE SIEGE OF KAFFA THE USE OF BIO WARFARE IN THE
MIDDLE AGES THE DISEASE IS SPREAD BY OXCART
AND SHIP
OPERATION DOUBLE STEAL
THE BLACK DEATH THE FERTILE GROUND OF EUROPE THE LACK OF PREPARATION LACK OF MEDICAL KNOWLEDGE A TENDENCY TOARD HYSTERIA THE PLAGUE TAKES HOLD -- GOD
ABANDONS EUROPE THE MECHANICS OF DISPOSAL
OPERATION DOUBLE STEAL
THE BLACK DEATH ENTIRE VILLAGES WIPED OUT ALL SORTS OF REMEDIES WERE
TRIED SOCIAL ORDER BROKE DOWN MENTALLY ILL PEOPLE, THOSE WITH
HANDICAPS, ANIMALS WERE ATTACKED ANDKILLED -- THEY WERE BLAMED
OPERATION DOUBLE STEAL
THE BLACK DEATH THE COST IN LIVES
30% OF EUROPE DIEDCIVILIZATION WS SET BACK A
GENERATION OR MORESOCIAL ORDER AND COMMERCE BADLY
DISRUPTEDIT WAS PREVENTABLE IF EUROPE HAD
KNOWN THE CAUSE
OPERATION DOUBLE STEAL
THE BLACK DEATH EVENTUALLY THE DISEASE BURNED
ITSELF OUT RE-OCCURRED IN EUROPE FOR
OVER A DECADE AT IRREGULAR INTERVALS
WHAT STOPPED THE PLAGUE WAS THE DEVELOPMENT OF BETTER SANITARY CONDITIONS
OPERATION DOUBLE STEAL
HISTORICAL LESSONS FOR OPERATIONAL PLANNING THE PLAUGE EPENDED ON
UNHYGENIC CONDITIONS -- CONDITIONS LARGELY ERADICATED
DOCTORS CAN DETECT THE PLAGUE AND TREAT IT
THE PLAUGE IS A RARITY NOW UNIT 731 TIRED TO WEAPONIZE IT
OPERATION DOUBLE STEAL
HISTORICAL LESSONS FOR OPERATIONAL PLANNING THE PLAGUE WOULD HAVE TO BE
ENGINEERED AS A WEAPON RUSSIANS MAY HAVE BEEN DOING JUST
THAT TECHNOLOGY MAY HAVE BEEN SHARED
WITH OTHERS USE OF NATURALLY OCCURRING VIRUS
VITAL
OPERATION DOUBLE STEAL
HISTORICAL LESSONS FOR OPERATIONAL PLANNING THE PLAGUE OCCURRED 5 CENTURIES
AGO CITIZENS HAVE NO RECENT MEMORY TO
ALARM THEM NO ONE FEELS THREATENED BUT WE HAVE A MORE RECENT PLAGUE
TO PROVIDE SOME ALARM -- THE SPANISH FLU OF 1917
OPERATION DOUBLE STEAL
A MORE RECENT HISTORICAL EXAMPLE -- THE SPANISH FLU OF 1917 ORIGINS OF THE PLAGUE
BEGAN AT FORT RILEY, KANSASLARGE MANURE PILE BURNED AND WIND
CARRIED ASHES ALL OVER THE POSTNEXT DAY, SOLDIERS STARTED COMING
DOWN WITH THE FLUARMY PANICKED -- SENT TROOPS OVER TO
EUROPE
OPERATION DOUBLE STEAL
A MORE RECENT HISTORICAL EXAMPLE -- THE SPANISH FLU OF 1917 ORIGINS OF THE PLAGUE
THEY BROUGHT THE DISEASE WITH THEMPEOPLE IN EUROPE BEGAN TO COME DOWN
TITH THE DISEASEFLU SPREAD TO THE GERMANS, AND THEN
MOVED EAST BY STATESIN FACT, THE DISEASE MOVED AROUND THE
WORLD AND RE-ENTERED THE U.S. THROUGH THE WEST COAST
OPERATION DOUBLE STEAL
A MORE RECENT HISTORICAL EXAMPLE -- THE SPANISH FLU OF 1917 NEAR BREAKDOWN OF SOCIAL
ORDERHUNDREDS OF PEOPLE AFFECTED --
WHOLE FAMILIESSPREAD RAPIDLY THROUGH THE
POPULATION BY CONTACTPEOPLE DIED WITHIN A FEW DAYS FROM
THE ONSET OF THE SYMPTOMS
OPERATION DOUBLE STEAL
A MORE RECENT HISTORICAL EXAMPLE -- THE SPANISH FLU OF 1917 NEAR BREAKDOWN OF SOCIAL ORDER
MORGUES RAN OUT OF ROOMPEOPLE CEASED TO GO OUTUSIDE AND
INTERACT WITH OTHERSSCHOOLS AND STORES WERE CLOSEDTHE ECONOMIC LIFE OF THE NATION BEGAN
TO GRIND TO A HALTPEOPLE BEGAN TO BLAME OTHERS
OPERATION DOUBLE STEAL
A MORE RECENT HISTORICAL EXAMPLE -- THE SPANISH FLU OF 1917 NEAR BREAKDOWN OF SOCIAL ORDER
POPULATION MIGRATED TO THE COUNTR FROM THE CITIY AND MERELY SPRED THE FLU
PEOPLE TOOK UP RELIGION AS THEY HAD DURING THE BLACK DEATH
FAMILIES LOST SIGNIFICANT MEMBERS ONE AFTER THE OTHER
AS QUICKLY AS IT AROSE, THE FLU DISAPPEAREDJUST AT THE RIGHT TIME -- SOCIETY WAS BEGINNING
TO COME APART
OPERATION DOUBLE STEAL
HISTORICAL LESSONS FOR OPERATIONAL PLANNING THE FLU HAS NOT NORMALLY BEEN
LISTED AS A POTENTIAL WEAPON HISTORICAL EVIDENCE THAT IT CAN
RAVAGE A POPULATION FLU OCCURS NATURALLY AND ALMOST
EVERY YEAR AN EASY WEAPON TO TEST -- ITS SO
NATURAL TO HAVE IT
OPERATION DOUBLE STEAL
HISTORICAL LESSONS FOR OPERATIONAL PLANNING FLU CAN BE UPGRADED TO BE
MORE MORE LETHAL IF A KILLER FLU WAS USED, SOCIAL
ORDER AND MEDICAL FACILITIES WOULD BREAK DOWN
WHO WOULD KNOW THIS TYPE OF FLU WAS A WEAPON
OPERATION DOUBLE STEAL
HISTORICAL LESSONS FOR OPERATIONAL PLANNING FLU IS A PERFECT WEAPON
BECAUSE IT SPREADS SO RAPIDLY AND ITS POINT OF ORIGIN CAN EASILY BE MASKED
BIOWEAPONS HAVE NOT BEEN USED SINCE 1945 BECAUSE OF THE THREAT OF NUCLEAR RETALIATION
OPERATION DOUBLE STEAL
HISTORICAL LESSONS FOR OPERATIONAL PLANNING INFRASTRUCTURE OF PREPARATION
WEAPON MUST BE IDENTIFIED EARLYDISEASE MUST BE KEPT WITHIN PARAMETERSCENTRAL DIRECTION TO FIGHT THE DISEASE
AND ITS SPREADCIVIL AUTHORITIES MUST BE PREPARED FOR
THIS TYPE OF CONTINGENCYFIRST RESPONDERS MUST IDENTIFY WHAT IT IS
AND SPREAD ALARM
OPERATION DOUBLE STEAL
THE MOST IMPORTANT KNOWLEDGE HISTORY SHOWS IF BIOWEAPON IS FULLY
DPLOYED, THE DAMAGE CAN BE CATASTOPHIC
MUST THINK OUT OF THE BOX -- NORMAL TERMS OF REFERENCE DO NOT APPLY
IF WE FORGET JUST ONE, IT IS ALL OVER NEVER ASSUME THAT THE ENEMY WILL USE
LETHAL -- THERE IS A DEFINITE PLACE FOR NONETHAL CHEMICALS AND BIO AGENTS
OPERATION DOUBLE STEAL
THE MOST IMPORTANT KNOWLEDGE KNOWLEDGE OF THE BLACK DEATH,
THE SPANISH FLU, AND OTHER PLAGUES IN HISTORY CAN GIVE A NATION THE INFORMATION IT NEEDS TO PLAN A BOLD AND SWIFT STROKE TO CHANGE THE BALANCE OF POWER IN THE WORLD
IT’S ALL ABOUT POWER
OPERATION DOUBLE STEAL
THE USE OF THE DOUBLE STEAL IN BASEBALL, WHEN TWO RUNNERS
ARE ON BASE AND THE 3RD BASE COACH SIGNALS FOR A DOUBLE STEAL, THEY RUN ON THE NEXT PITCH TO GET INTO SCORING POSITION
YOU CAN GET TWO RUNS INSTEAD OF ONE BY RISKING ONE OR BOTH RUNNERS
A HIGH RISK, BUT THE PAYOFF IS BIG
OPERATION DOUBLE STEAL
OPERATIONAL DOUBLE STEAL RATIONALE: THE CHANGING OF THE
BALANCE OF POWER IN THE PACIFIC RIM
BRINGS TOGETHER THREE OLD COMRADES -- CHINA, NORTH KOREA, AND RUSSIA
THE STAKES ARE ENORMOUS POWER COMES TO THOSE WHO DARE
OPERATION DOUBLE STEAL
NOTE: THIS SCENARIO IS FICTION BUT, REMEMBER TWENTY
THOUSAND LEAGUES UNDER THE SEAS
THE SUBMARINE NAUTILUS WAS FICTION THEN, BUT THAT TYPE OF A SUBMARINE IS COMMON NOW
FICTION CAN BECOME REALITY
OPERATION DOUBLE STEAL
GIVENS: NORTH KOREA, RUSSIA, AND CHINA
HAVE LARGE AND CAPABLE BIOWEAPONS RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT FACILITIES
NORTH KOREA’S GOAL IS TO REUNITE THE SOUTH
CHINA WANTS TO TAKE OVER TAIWAN BOTH CANNOT REACH THEIR DREAMS
WHILE THE U.S. CAN INTERVENE
OPERATION DOUBLE STEAL
GIVENS: CURRENT U.S. POLICY IS CLEAR -- USE
CHEMICAL OR BIOWEAPONS AGAINST US, AND RETALIATION WILL BE MASSIVE AND MAYBE NUCLEAR
PROBLEM: HOW TO DEVELOP A PLAN USING CHEMICAL AND BIOAGENTS THAT WOULD RENDER THE U.S. HARMLESS WITHOUT RISKING NUCLEAR EXCHANGE
OPERATION DOUBLE STEAL
THERE IS A WAYPLANNING CYCLE
UNDERSTANDINGS: TAIWAN AND SOUTH KOREA MUST BE
ATTACKED AND OVERRUN BEFORE U.S. CAN INTERVENE IN STRENTH
PRESENT U.S. WITH FAIT ACCOMPLIFAIT ACCOMPLI AND GIVE U.S. LEADERSHIP A TERRIBLE CHOICE
OPERATION DOUBLE STEAL
THERE IS A WAYPLANNING CYCLE
UNDERSTANDINGS: “WE HAD TO DESTROY THE VILLAGE
TO SAVE IT” SYNDROME NO PRESIDENT SHOULD EVER BE
FACED WITH THIS TYPE OF A DECISION
OPERATION DOUBLE STEAL
THE RIDDLE OF TAIWAN CAPABLE OF DEFENDING ITSELF, BUT
RELATIONS WITH PRC ARE DELICATE ABOUT PROVIDING MILITARY HARDWARE
CHINA IS BUILDING UP TECHNOLOGY TO MARCH ANY POTENTIAL FOE
GEOGRAPHY OF TWIWAN LIMITS WHAT PLA CAN DO TO SEIZE ISLAND
CHINESE NAVY DOES NOT HAVE AMPHIBIOUS FORCES FOR FULL SCALE LANDINGS
OPERATION DOUBLE STEAL
THE RIDDLE OF TAIWAN ANY ATTEMPT TO SEIZE THE ISLAND
WOULD HAVE TO TAKE LESS THAN 3 DAYS
IT WOULD HAVE TO BE OVERWHELMING IN SCOPE AND POWER
TIED INTO THE IDEA OF THE INDIRECT APPROACH
OPERATION DOUBLE STEAL
THE INDIRECT APPROACH USE OF INFORMATION WARFARE TO
BLIND DEFENSES USE OF BIOAGENTS TO DESTROY
COMPUTERS USE OF SIMILAR AGENTS TO DISRUPT
TELEPHONE, RADIO, AND TELEVISION WAY IS PREPARED BY EPIDEMIC OF A
POWERFUL FLU
OPERATION DOUBLE STEAL
THE INDIRECT APPROACH THE FLU IS SPRAYED OVER THE
ISLAND BY STEALTH GLIDERS CONTROLLED BY THE PRC
WHEN FLU TAKES FULL EFFECT INFORMATION WARFARE IS INITIATED
SPECIAL FORCES USING NON-LETHAL CHEMICAL AGENTS TAKES OVER KEY COMMAND AND CONTROL SYSTEMS
OPERATION DOUBLE STEAL
THE INDIRECT APPROACH USING LOW FLYING AIRCRAFT, WEAPONS
AND VEHICLE PARKS ARE SPRAYED WITH IRRITANT CHEMICAL AGENTS THAT WILL MAKE THEIR USE DIFFICULT AND REQUIRE DECONTAMINATION
THE FIFTH COLUMN -- WHO HAVE BEEN IMMUNIZED TO THE FLU WILL THEN TAKE OVER TV AND RADIO TO BEGIN THE PROCESS OF EDUCATION OF THE PUBLIC
OPERATION DOUBLE STEAL
THE NEUTRALIZATION OF “BIG BROTHER” USING AGENT IN PLACE ASSETS AND
INFORMATION WARFAREU.S. SATELLITES ARE TEMPORARILY
DISABLED -- THIS WILL APPEAR TO BE A NATURAL GLITCH
U.S. MILITARY PERSONNEL -- PARTICULARLY USAF, NAVAL, AND FAST DEPLOYING U.S. ARMY GROUND FORCES WILL COME DOWN WITH THE FLU
OPERATION DOUBLE STEAL
THE NEUTRALIZATION OF “BIG BROTHER” USING AGENT IN PLACE ASSETS AND
INFORMATION WARFAREPSYCHOLOGICAL WARFARE WILL HAVE
BEGUN EARLIER WITH ARTICLES INDICATING THE THEME “WHY FIGHT FOR TAIWAN”
NON-LETHAL BIO AGENTS WILL BE USED TO NEUTALIZE ANY FAST DEPLOYING U.S. FORCE, PARTICULARLY USAF AIRCRAFT
OPERATION DOUBLE STEAL
THE FALL OF TAIWAN LANDING FORCE OF SPECIAL TROOPS WOULD
BE HIDDEN IN SPECIFICALLY CONSTRUCTED SHIPS -- Erskine Childers: THE RIDDLE OF THE SANDS
LAND AT KEY TAIWANESE PORTS TROOPS WILL BE DRESSED SIMILARLY TO
NATIONALIST FORCES GOVERNMENT OF LOCAL TAIWANESE WITH
PRC CONNECTIONS WILL BE NAMED, AND THEY WILL CALL FOR CALM FROM THE POPULACE
OPERATION DOUBLE STEAL
THE FALL OF TAIWAN CHINESE MISSILES WILL COMMAND
THE FORMOSA STRAITS CHINESE KILO CLASS SUBS WILL
PATROL OFF TAIWAN TO INTERCEPT AND STOP ANY U.S. NAVY TASK FORCE
TAIWAN AIR DEFENSE SYSTEMS WILL BE IMMEDIATELY RESTORED UNDER PLA CONTROL
OPERATION DOUBLE STEAL
THE OTHER SIDE OF THE DOUBLE STEAL -- THE FALL AND OCCUPATION OF SOUTH KOREA NORTH KOREA USES A SIMILAR
SYSTEM TO TAKE SOUTH KOREA BUT, THERE ARE U.S. TROOPS
STATIONED IN SOUTH KOREA PLAN TO DEAL WITH THEM
OPERATION DOUBLE STEAL
THE OTHER SIDE OF THE DOUBLE STEAL -- THE FALL AND OCCUPATION OF SOUTH KOREA
• U.S. TROOPS ARE LOCATED IN ENCLAVES AND NOT AMONG THE GENERAL POPULATION
• THEY WOULD BE NEUTRALIZED WITH ATTACKS USING NON-LETHAL FLU, AND DEGRADING CHEMICAL AGENTS FOR WEAPONS AND VEHICLE PARKS
• SINCE ROKA AND U.S. HAVE C&C AREAS, THEY WOULD BE NEUTRALIZED USING NON-LETHAL AGENTS AND SPECIAL OPERATIONS UNITS
OPERATION DOUBLE STEAL
THE OTHER SIDE OF THE DOUBLE STEAL -- THE FALL AND OCCUPATION OF SOUTH KOREA THE NORTH KOREAN ARMY IS REPUTED
TO HAVE AMONG THE BEST TRAINED SPECIAL FORCES IN THE WORLD
THEY HAVE BEEN TESTING THE DEFENSES OF SOUTH KOREA FOR DECADES
THEY KNOW WHERE THE HOLES ARE
OPERATION DOUBLE STEAL
THE OTHER SIDE OF THE DOUBLE STEAL -- THE FALL AND OCCUPATION OF SOUTH KOREA HERE’S HOW ITS DONE
CRIPPLE C&C SYSTEM WITH USE OF NON-LETHAL CHEMICALS AND BIO-AGENTS
ACTIVATION OF TH COLUMN FOR PSYCHOLOGICAL AND DISRUPTIVE OPERATIONS
INFACT THE S. KOREAN POPULATION WITH POWERFUL BUT NON-LETHAL FLU VIRUS
USE POWERFUL NON LETHAL BIO-CHEMICAL AGENTS TO FORCE DECONTAMINATION OF VEHICLES AND EQUIPMENT
OPERATION DOUBLE STEAL
THE OTHER SIDE OF THE DOUBLE STEAL -- THE FALL AND OCCUPATION OF SOUTH KOREA HERE’S HOW ITS DONE
USE OF EMPUSE OF NKPA SPEICAL FORCES -- SNIPER
BRIGADES FOR DISRUPTOR MISSIONS AND SEIZURE OF KEY POSITION AND TERRAIN
USE OF TUNNELS NOT DISCOVERED TO MOVE BALANCE OF STRKING FORCE INTO SOUTH KOREA
OPERATION DOUBLE STEAL
THE OTHER SIDE OF THE DOUBLE STEAL -- THE FALL AND OCCUPATION OF SOUTH KOREA HERE’S HOW ITS DONE
NORTH KOREA SEEDS SKIES AROUND SOUTH KOREA WITH BIO AGENTS TO DISRUPT INCOMING U.S. REINFORCMENTS -- BY PLANE
S. KOREAN AIR BASES SPRAYED WITH DISRUPTIVE AGENTS TO PRECLUDE THEIR IMMEDIATE USE
OPERATION DOUBLE STEAL
U.S. RESPONSE AS IN TAIWAN SITUATION. ONLY
POSSIBILITY IS A BREAK-IN OPERATION THOUSANDS OF U.S. LIVES AT STAKE,
AND TO TAKE BACK S. KOREA WOULD INVOLVE DEATHS OF THOUSANDS OF KOREAN
NO U.S. PRESIDENT SHOULD HAVE TO MAKE THIS DECISION
OPERATION DOUBLE STEAL
LESSONS FOR THE FUTURENEED TO DEVELOP MEASURES TO
COUNTER DISRUPTOR WEAPONS AGAINST C&C AND INDUSTRIAL INFRASTRUCTURE
CONSIDERATION NEED TO BE GIVEN TO ALL CHEMICAL AND BIOLOGICAL WEAPONS THAT ARE NOT LETHAL AND PROGRAMS DEVELOPED TO NEGATE THEIR EFFECT
OPERATION DOUBLE STEAL
LESSONS FOR THE FUTURE IF WE IGNORE THE LESSONS OF THE
PAST, THESE NEW TYPE OF WEAPONS CAN REDUCE AMERICA’S MILITARY FROM THE BEST TECHNOLOGICAL FORCE IN THE WORLD, TO USING BOWS AND ARROWS
SURRENDER MIGHT BE OUR ONLY OPTION