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Page 1: US GLOBEC Pan-Regional Synthesis: An Outsider's View

US-GLOBEC Boulder Nov 06 1

U. Victoria

US GLOBEC Pan-Regional Synthesis:US GLOBEC Pan-Regional Synthesis:An Outsider's ViewAn Outsider's View

Ken Denman

Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis

Meteorological Service of CanadaUniversity of Victoria

&Institute of Ocean Sciences-DFO, Sidney, BC

Email: [email protected]

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Outline of TalkOutline of Talk

GLOBEC Motivation and HypothesesGLOBEC Motivation and Hypotheses– what about the 'GLOB' part? long term and large

scale

Where is US GLOBEC Today?Where is US GLOBEC Today?– mature regional studies and capabilities

Key Questions and ApproachesKey Questions and Approaches– 'local insights' versus 'universal truths'?

The State of Marine Ecosystem ModellingThe State of Marine Ecosystem Modelling– reuniting foodweb versus biogeochemical models

A Look into the FutureA Look into the Future– climate change and other human impacts– thinking beyond funding

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(Kawasaki et al.)

Motivation for GLOBECMotivation for GLOBEC

There exist hemispheric, multidecadal changesThere exist hemispheric, multidecadal changes

BUT what is natural and what is caused by (over)fishing?BUT what is natural and what is caused by (over)fishing?

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2005)

A Closer A Closer LookLook

•Lack of synchronicity in anchovy anchovy cycles

•Negative correlation with BenguelaBenguela systemin S. Atlantic Ocean

Plots like these for your Plots like these for your study regions would be study regions would be a highly desirable but a highly desirable but unattainable outcome of unattainable outcome of the US GLOBEC programthe US GLOBEC program

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Working Hypothesis #1Working Hypothesis #1

• Events such as the 'physteria hysteria' off the Carolinas, or Hurricane Katrina, capture all the news. Our society tends to react immediately and intensely to these events. But how can we respond (rather than react) as a scientific community so as to help minimize the likelihood/risk of occurrence and/or severity of such events in the future?

• These 'crises' & our personal, institutional and funding horizons lead us to focus on shorter term, smaller scale, 'process-level' studies

We want to understand the systems we are studying We want to understand the systems we are studying well enough to 'forecast' their future behaviorwell enough to 'forecast' their future behavior

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Working Hypothesis #2Working Hypothesis #2

Definition:Definition:

Global changeGlobal change = Environmental change resulting from human activities and from climate change both natural and anthropogenic.

When GLOBEC ends, it should be seen as having put When GLOBEC ends, it should be seen as having put our Society in a better position to address issues our Society in a better position to address issues

of Global Changeof Global Change

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Yet Much Environmental Change of Yet Much Environmental Change of Consequence Occurs on ENSO to Century Consequence Occurs on ENSO to Century

TimescalesTimescales

• Statistical predictions will likely fail as the system Statistical predictions will likely fail as the system moves beyond the ensemble of realizations on moves beyond the ensemble of realizations on which the statistics were based.which the statistics were based.

• Forecasting these timescales results in the system Forecasting these timescales results in the system 'losing its memory' of initial conditions'losing its memory' of initial conditions

• We must assume future forcing conditionsWe must assume future forcing conditions

• Parameters must be formulated to adapt as the Parameters must be formulated to adapt as the ocean environment changesocean environment changes

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Yet Much Environmental Change of Yet Much Environmental Change of Consequence Occurs on ENSO to Century Consequence Occurs on ENSO to Century

TimescalesTimescales

• Statistical predictions will likely fail as the system Statistical predictions will likely fail as the system moves beyond the ensemble of realizations on moves beyond the ensemble of realizations on which the statistics were based.which the statistics were based.

• Forecasting these timescales results in the system Forecasting these timescales results in the system 'losing its memory' of initial conditions'losing its memory' of initial conditions

• We must assume future forcing conditionsWe must assume future forcing conditions

• Parameters must be formulated to adapt as the Parameters must be formulated to adapt as the ocean environment changesocean environment changes

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Where is US GLOBEC Today?Where is US GLOBEC Today?

1.1. You have completed intensive field programs on You have completed intensive field programs on Georges Bank, in the Pacific Northwest/Alaska, Georges Bank, in the Pacific Northwest/Alaska, & in the Southern Ocean:& in the Southern Ocean:

– they combine submesoscale projects with 'monitoring' on seasonal to interannual scales

– you have developed advanced sampling technology & detailed mechanistic spatially-resolved coupled physical-biological models to capture and integrate the understanding gained from the field programs.

2.2. You are about to enter into your 'You are about to enter into your 'SynthesisSynthesis' ' phase and need a set of criteria to focus calls phase and need a set of criteria to focus calls for proposals and eventually the reviewing of for proposals and eventually the reviewing of the proposals.the proposals.

3.3. You want to leave a You want to leave a LEGACYLEGACY

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Key Questions and ApproachesKey Questions and Approaches

Can we learn from studies 'Contrasting' the different Can we learn from studies 'Contrasting' the different regions studied?regions studied?

– physically-controlled vs top-down predator controlled?

– dominated by event-scale phenomena, versus seasonal and longer scales?

– systems that 'erase the past' and reset each year (or after each 'event', e.g. El Niño, 'regime shift', etc.), versus those that integrate over multiple years and have 'memory'?

1. Which scientific advances made by US GLOBEC have been 1. Which scientific advances made by US GLOBEC have been 'local insights' and which ones are 'universal truths'?'local insights' and which ones are 'universal truths'?

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Key Questions and ApproachesKey Questions and Approaches

Portability Index PIPI::

where J(RJ(Rii)) is the cost function of fitting to region RRii

J(RJ(Rjj // R // Rii)) is the cost of fitting to RRjj after optimizing on

RRii

ASAS – Arabian Sea & EPEP – Equatorial Pacific

[Friedrichs, M. A. M, J. Dusenberry, L. Anderson, R. Armstrong, F. Chai, J. Christian, [Friedrichs, M. A. M, J. Dusenberry, L. Anderson, R. Armstrong, F. Chai, J. Christian, S. Doney, J. Dunne, M. Fujii, R. Hood, D. McGillicuddy, K. Moore, M. Schartau, Y. S. Doney, J. Dunne, M. Fujii, R. Hood, D. McGillicuddy, K. Moore, M. Schartau, Y. Spitz, and J. Wiggert, 2006. Spitz, and J. Wiggert, 2006. Assessment of skill and portability in regional marine Assessment of skill and portability in regional marine biogeochemical models: the role of multiple plankton groups.biogeochemical models: the role of multiple plankton groups. J. Geophys. Res., J. Geophys. Res., submitted July 2006]submitted July 2006]

2. How much of the detail built into 2. How much of the detail built into the regional models is 'Portable'?the regional models is 'Portable'?

)//()//(

)()(

ASEPJEPASJ

EPJASJPI

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Model Intercomparisons and Model Intercomparisons and 'Portability''Portability'

•Models with multiple Phytoplankton classes (rhs) perform better than 1P models when applied to different regions (bottom panels)

•Simple models perform almost as well as complex models in 'local optimization' (panel b)

[Friedrichs et al, submitted][Friedrichs et al, submitted]

No Optimization

Simultaneous Optimization

Local Optimization

Cross-validation

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Model Intercomparisons and Model Intercomparisons and 'Portability''Portability'

•EqPac:EqPac:ChlorophyllChlorophyll constraint accounts for largest cost

•Arabian SeaArabian Sea (not shown):ProductivityProductivity constraint more important

•Complex ModelsComplex Models-- different models with similar cost may have very different internal flows- need more observations of 'internal' variables to constrain flows

No Optimization Local Optimization

Simultaneous Optimization Cross-validation

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Portability IndexPortability Index

Lower Cost Lower Cost Higher PortabilityHigher PortabilityOOPS!OOPS!Assimilating zooplankton data Assimilating zooplankton data Higher Cost & Lower PortabilityHigher Cost & Lower Portability

WHY??WHY??

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Consider the Chlorophyll: Carbon ratioConsider the Chlorophyll: Carbon ratio for example:for example: our models are expressed in terms of CC or NN yet we estimate

phytoplankton biomass from Chlorophyll, and Chlorophyll captures PAR, the light used in photosynthesis

we obtain variable based on the equation for 'balanced' Chl:C of Geider et al. 1996, 1997, and

observations/analyses from OSP during SUPER (Booth et al, 1993) & our own during 1998-2000 (Peña & Varela, in prep.) tedious

our 'balanced' 'balanced' is based on the previous 24h PAR PAR (Jim Christian)

3.3. Which functional representations in our Which functional representations in our models are or can be formulated so that they models are or can be formulated so that they vary with a changing climate?vary with a changing climate? (Do our  (Do our

approaches allow for 'emergent'? properties?)approaches allow for 'emergent'? properties?)

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C:Chl (= 1/C:Chl (= 1/ ) from OSP and Shelf ) from OSP and Shelf EdgeEdge

First cruise?? - - Winter: low, no gradient; Summer: 40 - 100Winter: low, no gradient; Summer: 40 - 100[Peña & Varela, submitted][Peña & Varela, submitted]

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C:Chl Ratio for Variable PAR at OSPC:Chl Ratio for Variable PAR at OSP

• Smooth black line is

•smooth black line is average daily PAR at OSP

•mid-summer clear sky PAR ~ 150+ W m-2

•Red line is 'balanced' 1/for PARt-1 averaged over the upper 30 m

•Range ~ 25 – 120 gC/gChl

•BUT Chl changes little at OSP?

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Current State of Marine Ecosystem Current State of Marine Ecosystem ModelingModeling

Over the last decade, marine ecosystem Over the last decade, marine ecosystem model development has diverged into model development has diverged into several lines of more or less independent several lines of more or less independent activity. These include: activity. These include:

1. upper food web models incorporating individual-based models (IBMs) and life history models of herbivores and harvestable marine resources;

2. trophic models spanning many trophic levels but focusing on harvestable marine resources;

3. biogeochemical models coupled to physical climate models.

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End-to-End Ecosystem Modeling End-to-End Ecosystem Modeling 'E2E''E2E'

International GLOBEC/ IMBER has organized an International GLOBEC/ IMBER has organized an End-to-End Ecosystem Task Team (e2e), End-to-End Ecosystem Task Team (e2e), whose goal is:whose goal is:

• to guide the development of a full ecosystem approach that links all components of the food web with comprehensive climate models to explore the impacts and feedbacks between global change (in its broadest sense) and marine food webs.

(North American members: Dave Karl & Ken Denman).

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• Need better metrics of uncertaintyNeed better metrics of uncertainty• Need ensemble projections:Need ensemble projections:

– give relative probability of different outcomes

– evaluate risk of the different outcomes

• Coupling the large scales to the small Coupling the large scales to the small scales, i.e. downscaling scales, i.e. downscaling

US GLOBEC Synthesis could have a goal to US GLOBEC Synthesis could have a goal to develop an ecosystem model that would work develop an ecosystem model that would work

equally well (according to some 'cost equally well (according to some 'cost function') in all your regional study areas, function') in all your regional study areas,

embedded in the same (ROMS?) circulation embedded in the same (ROMS?) circulation model.model.

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A Look into the FutureA Look into the Future Global warming is here to stayGlobal warming is here to stay

• Annual rates of emissions of CO2 are increasing, and will continue to do so for the foreseeable future (at least 30 years, due to coal generation plants) [see next 2 slides]

• Polluting aerosols will be tackled and reduced due their short atmospheric lifetimes and to the more immediate threat to human health – which will lead to an increase in the rate of warming (due to current cooling effect of aerosols)

• All C4MIP coupled carbon-climate models show a positive feedback to climate, i.e. coupled models all sequester less CO2 to land and oceans than uncoupled (Friedlingstein et al., 2006, J. Climate.)

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2 x CO2

Stabilizing Concentrations Requires Stabilizing Concentrations Requires Large Decrease in Emissions from Y Large Decrease in Emissions from Y

2000 Level2000 Level

Stabilizing Stabilizing ConcentrationsConcentrations at 550 ppm requires at 550 ppm requires

IPCC TAR, 2001IPCC TAR, 2001

Decreasing CODecreasing CO22 Emissions Emissions by ~75% from present by ~75% from present levelslevels

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What Next? Rise in Coal-Fired Plants vs. What Next? Rise in Coal-Fired Plants vs. Carbon Capture and Storage CapabilityCarbon Capture and Storage Capability

Schiermeier, Q., News feature, Nature 442, 10 Aug. 2006.Schiermeier, Q., News feature, Nature 442, 10 Aug. 2006.

IEA estimates they will release 140 GtCIEA estimates they will release 140 GtCcf. 165 GtCcf. 165 GtCanthro.anthro. left in atmosphere in 1995 left in atmosphere in 1995

About 50% will remain in atmosphere (based on last 50 years)About 50% will remain in atmosphere (based on last 50 years)i.e. equivalent to an increase in atmospheric COi.e. equivalent to an increase in atmospheric CO22 of of 33 ppm33 ppm

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What Kind of Future?What Kind of Future?

• Stabilizing CO2 levels at 550 ppm by 2100 ('2 x CO2') is probably not attainable through controlling emissions.

• Stabilizing CO2 around 700-750 ppm is more likely

OR ? ?OR ? ?

• We need to consider mitigation measures,e.g. proposal to inject sulphates into the stratosphere, [Paul Crutzen, 2006, Climatic Change]

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The Ocean: Surface The Ocean: Surface ppH is DecreasingH is DecreasingHow will that affect fisheries ecosystems?How will that affect fisheries ecosystems?

?

[prepared by Arne Körtzinger (IFM,Kiel) for the IMBER Science Plan on the basis of WOCE data: Schlitzer, 2000]

http://ioc.unesco.org/iocweb/co2panel/Publications.htm

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The Coastal Ocean: More Hypoxia The Coastal Ocean: More Hypoxia Events?Events?

Dead zone off Newport, Oregon 2002,04,06

[www.piscoweb.org[www.piscoweb.org PISCO at OSU]PISCO at OSU]

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Hypoxia Events: Are They Increasing?Hypoxia Events: Are They Increasing?

What are the What are the causes?causes?

•natural?•climate change?

•other human activities?

Can we predict Can we predict them?them?

[Grantham et al., 2004. Nature, 429, 749-753][Grantham et al., 2004. Nature, 429, 749-753]

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Our Future?Our Future?

Our community doing 'basic' science will be expected to spend more effort addressing impacts (& risk analysis) + adaptation + mitigation measures.

That requires improved projections of our future climate and ocean, and inclusion of more 'impacts' directly into our models


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