Download - Trng Effective Crew DM
5/18/2014 J.Orasanu
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Research Panel:
Training for Effective Crew Decision Making
Judith Orasanu
NASA-Ames Research Center Mail Stop 262-4
Moffett Field, CA 94035-1000
Aviation Education 2020 Workshop #2 Monterey, CA January 30, 2001
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Overview of Talk
What does the future hold for pilots in 2020?
– Implications for pilot training
Flight Crew Decision Making
– Requirements for effective crew decision making
– Pilot Decision Making model
How do crews go wrong - 2001?
Training requirements - 2020
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The Future?
Fully automated aircraft (but with a few
oldies but goodies left over?)
Synthetic vision
Free Flight
Automated ATC
Automated flight tools
Distributed decision environments
MORE TRAFFIC!
Less experienced pilots?
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Implications for Pilots?
Role shift - pilots as system managers
Increased Strategic planning + Tactical
decision making
BUT, still need to maintain
– Stick and rudder skills
– Steam gauge knowledge?
Distributed decision making
– ATC
– Dispatch
– Other pilots
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Flight Crew Decision Making
What is EFFECTIVE Decision Making - 2001?
Decision that leads to best TASK performance
– Under the given circumstances
– At lowest cost
Performance = Accomplish mission
– Maximize safety
– Minimize risk
– Passenger satisfaction, meet company goals
Costs: Time, Fuel, Cognitive Effort, System Efficiency
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Ingredients for Effective DM
Good Information
Sufficient Knowledge
Appropriate Cognitive and Metacognitive
Processes
Good Crew Processes
Environment Events Conditions Constraints
Cues
Situation
Assessment
• Diagnose problem
• Time available
• Assess risk
Type?
Severity?
Immediate/
Potential
Choose
Action Goals • Procedural
• Adaptive/choice
• Creative
Goals
Evaluate
Demands
On Crew
Resources to
Meet Demands Task
Management
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How Do Crews Go Wrong?
Incorrectly assess the situation = Solve
the wrong problem!
Understand the problem, but make
inappropriate decision
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Decision Errors
FACT: 2/3 crew-related Pt. 121 accidents involved
tactical decision errors (NTSB, 1994)
-- 3/4 involved monitoring/challenging errors QuickTime™ and aGraphics decompressorare needed to see this picture.
Proc T D E A/C Handling
Sit Aware Comm Sys Op Res Mgmt Nav Mon/Chal0
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15
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Type of Error
Primary Secondary
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Plan Continuation Errors
Decision to continue with an original plan
in the face of cues that indicate
– Conditions have changed
– Plan revision might be prudent
38/51 (75%) of all decision errors in 37 Pt.
121 accidents involved PCE (NTSB, 1994)
QuickTime™ and aGraphics decompressorare needed to see this picture.
Gate/Taxi Takeoff Cruise Approach Landing0
5
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25
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Phase of Fl i ght
7.8
3.9
7.8
9.8
7.8 7.8
21.6
3.9
29.4
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Plan Cont. Errors
Non-Plan Cont. Errors
Di st r i but i on of Deci si on Errors
in 37 flightcrew-involved accidents studied by the NTSB (1994)
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Underestimate risk
Overestimate own or aircraft ability
Fail to update dynamic situation model
Social/organizational pressures
Poor information
Misinterpret cues
Habit capture - stress
Plan Continuation Errors-Why?
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Training Requirements
Knowledge – Mental Models of the System, Automation, Environment,
Weather, Crew Roles, ATC
Strategies – Situation Assessment
• Diagnosis
• Time
• Risk
– Action Decision • Evaluate through mental simulation
– Metacognitive Skills • Manage tasks and resources
– Crew Skills • Communication & coordination
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Summary
Computer skills will be important as TOOLS
for making effective DECISIONS
Decision environment will be more
distributed, therefore will require effective
teamwork and communication
Flight management --> Safety management
