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012 Comparison of the SSI data sets
using observed and simulated evolution of the middle
atmosphere during 2004-2010
A. Shapiro, T. Egorova, E. Rozanov and FUSPOL team
PMOD/WRC, Davos, SwitzerlandIAC ETH, Zurich, Switzerland
University of Bern, Bern, SwitzerlandEAWAG, Dubendorf, Switzerland
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•Can we decide which SSI data set is right comparing simulated and measured ozone and temperature time series?
•How important is SSI for the future climate warming and ozone recovery?
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1950 2004.05 2009.02LEAN data
SORCE dataSSI data sets
SIMSIMSOLSTICESOLSTICE
LEANLEAN
2007-2004
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dO3 (‰/nm): Ozone mixing ratio changes due to the observed variability of the spectral solar irradiance (min to max) (Rozanov et al. 2002)
Key photochemical processesKey photochemical processes
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ΔΔOO33 (%) 2004 - 2007 (%) 2004 - 2007
1D-RCPM
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Lean data 2004.05-2009.02
SIM and SOLSTICE dominated composites 2004.05-2009.02
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121 nm 210 nm 290 nm 750 nm
SOLSTICESOLSTICE
SIMSIM
LEAN data + 2 composites:
5 ensemble runs with each dataset
+5 reference ensemble runs
CCM SOCOL runs
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ΔΔOO33 (%) 11.2004 – 11.2008, (%) 11.2004 – 11.2008, No solar
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Comparison with observations
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Comparison with observations
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•Right choice of SSI is important for the stratosphere
•We can identify time/location when and where the simulated solar signal is significant
•However, the uncertainty of the available satellite data is not high enough to make definite conclusions
•Long-term and accurate measurements of all quantities are necessary
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Greenhousewarming
Ozone depletion
Solar variability
Anthropogenicactivity
GHGGHG ODSODS
SISI
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From Barnard et al., 2011
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Model experimentsFour experiments in time slice mode,
20-years, 10 years spin up
“REF”“TSI”“SSI”“ANT”
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Source: Shapiro et al., 2011
TSI for the reference = 1367.77 W/m2
TSI for a strong minimum = 1363.87 W/m2
Forcing = -0.7 W/m2
Input for the radiation code of the model
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012 Future UV
205 nm~15 % decrease
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T2m (K) for ANT and TSI runs
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T2m (K) for ANT and SSI runs
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TOZ (DU) for ANT and TSI runs
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TOZ (DU) for ANT and SSI runs
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• These results probably represent the upper limit of the possible solar influence.
• A deeper understanding and the construction of a better constrained set of future solar forcings and the application of the models with an interactive ocean are necessary to address the problem of predicting the future climate and state of the ozone layer with more confidence.
• The development of more reliable solar forcing data sets requires the maintenance and extension of all relevant satellite and ground-based observations as
well as further theoretical investigations.
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012 FUPSOL project
Estimate the contribution of solar related forcings (irradiance and particles) to the climate and global ozone evolution during the from 17th to end of 21st centuries using ocean-chemistry-climate model.
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Thank you!
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1D simulations
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Tropical mean 26oN – 26oS
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Simulated temperature responseTropical mean 26oN – 26oS
