Download - Theories of War Causation Schools & Variants Johan M.G. van der Dennen

Theories of War CausationTheories of War Causation

Schools & VariantsSchools & Variants

Johan M.G. van der Dennen

Theories of War Causation• Demographic-Ecological School


• Economic School


• Economic School

• Imperialism School


• Economic School


• Political-Strategic School


• Economic School



• (Social)-Psychological School


• Economic School



• (Social)-Psychological School

• Apologetic School


– Population pressure (Plato) / ‘Lebensraum’


– Population pressure (Plato) / ‘Lebensraum’– Demographic relaxation / Filicide (Bouthoul)


– Population pressure (Plato) / ‘Lebensraum’– Demographic relaxation / Filicide (Bouthoul)– Lateral pressure / distribution of resources


– Population pressure (Plato) / ‘Lebensraum’– Demographic relaxation / Filicide (Bouthoul)– Lateral pressure / distribution of resources– Geopolitical variant (Haushofer)

Theories of War Causation• Economic School (Material gain / pleonexia)


– Mercantilists


– Mercantilists– Physiocrats / Manchester School / Liberals


– Mercantilists– Physiocrats / Manchester School / Liberals– Marxists


– Mercantilists– Physiocrats / Manchester School / Liberals– Marxists– Merchants of death / War-profiteering / Scandal


– Mercantilists– Physiocrats / Manchester School / Liberals– Marxists– Merchants of death / War-profiteering / Scandal– Military-industrial(-academic) complex

Theories of War Causation• Imperialism School (Material & territorial gain)


– Conservative variant


– Conservative variant– Liberal variant (Hobson)


– Conservative variant– Liberal variant (Hobson)– Marxist-Leninist / Revisionist / Neo-Marxist


– Conservative variant– Liberal variant (Hobson)– Marxist-Leninist / Revisionist / Neo-Marxist– Militarist variant (Schumpeter)

Theories of War Causation• Political-Strategic School (Power)


– ‘Ultima ratio’ / Cost-benefit calculus


– ‘Ultima ratio’ / Cost-benefit calculus• Machiavelli • Hobbes • Clausewitz • Realists

(Morgenthau, Waltz) • Expected utility theory (Bueno de Mesquita) • Blainey • Stoessinger




– Balance of power / parity / preponderance




– Balance of power / parity / preponderance• Polarity • Deterrence / Security dilemma • Arms

races





races

– Power transition theory and hegemonic war





races

– Power transition theory and hegemonic war– Rank disequilibrium theory (Galtung)

Theories of War Causation• (Social-)Psychological School (Bête humaine)


– Human nature / bête humaine / passions-reason


– Human nature / bête humaine / passions-reason• Thucydides (fear) • Hobbes: ‘competition,

diffidence, glory’




– Great men / Evil men (personified cataclysmic)




– Great men / Evil men (personified cataclysmic)– National character / (Mass) psychopathology




– Great men / Evil men (personified cataclysmic)– National character / (Mass) psychopathology– Minds of Men variant: misperception & comm.




– Great men / Evil men (personified cataclysmic)– National character / (Mass) psychopathology– Minds of Men variant: misperception & comm.– Instinctivist variants (pugnacity / ‘Todestrieb’)

• Herd instincts • aggressive instincts • adventurism






– Frustration-aggression displacement variant


– Human nature / bête humaine / passions-reason• Thucydides (fear) • Hobbes: ‘competition, diffidence,

glory’



– Frustration-aggression displacement variant– Obedience / Sociality / Group-altruism / Noble

Theories of War Causation• Apologetic School (war as necessity)


– Metaphysical variant (divine punishment)


– Metaphysical variant (divine punishment)– Etatistic variant (Hegel)


– Metaphysical variant (divine punishment)– Etatistic variant (Hegel)– Social Darwinist variant (‘agent of progress’)


– Metaphysical variant (divine punishment)– Etatistic variant (Hegel)– Social Darwinist variant (‘agent of progress’)– Eschatological variants (‘proletarian paradise’)

The phalanx: the major invention of ‘civilized’ warfare

Raiding (dawn attack) by a Florida Indian tribe (de Bry, ± 1590)

Hu Chi Bo

War in both humans (Hu) and chimpanzees

(Chi) as relatively recent ‘cultural inventions’

‘Lethal male raiding’ as independently evolved in both humans and chimpanzees (implied by

van der Dennen)

‘Lethal male raiding’ in the common ancestor of both humans and chimpanzees 6 - 8 mya (Wrangham’s synapomorphy or shared derived trait).

Pitched battle type of intergroup agonistic behavior in primates generally, and possibly even in social and group territorial mammals generally (social carnivores, dolphins, etc.).

THE (CHRONO)LOGICALLY POSSIBLE THEORETICAL VIEWS ON THE EVOLUTION OF WAR AS PITCHED BATTLE AND RAIDING

Differences between battle and raidBATTLE RAID

guerra (real war),combat / pitched battle

also known as guerrilla (little war)

fight/flight-like motivationally predation-like

approx. balance ofpower

precipitated by Imbalance of power

very common in socialcarnivores and primates

occurrence in animals confined to panids andhominids

females and males(much less so in

humans)

sex of the belligerents exclusively male

relatively uncommonamong foraging

peoples (if presentoften ritualized)

occurrence in'primitive' societies

predominant and mostlethal among foraging

peoples


very common incontemporary warfare(but less common in

future)

occurrence in modernwarfare

relatively uncommon incontemporary warfare(but more common in

future)parallel lines /

phalanxesappearance ambush / dawn attack /

surprise raidclamor / bluff /

intimidation displaycharacterized by stealth / secrecy

biomechanicalprinciples

explained by tactical requirements (?)

impact of mass andspeed, encirclement,

feigned retreat

tactics hit and run, torching,indiscriminate killing

psychology of thesoldier (discipline)

underlying psychology psychology of thewarrior (frenzy)


too short line(envelopment), too long

line (penetration)

weakness andvulnerability

logistics, retreat

chance encounter,failed raid, failed

surprise attack

conditioned by surprise attack asdefault

ritualization (game-likewar) possible

ritualization? no ritualization possibleguerre à l'outrance

reconciliation inprinciple possible

reconciliation? no reconciliation,incessant cycles of

retaliation and revengeraiding

divine ordeal, expiatorycombat

metaphysical aspects magicoreligious magnet

relatively low but mayresult in routing and

massacre

lethality (casualties) relatively low butrapidly accumulating

War Causation: The Evidence• Onset (occurrence/initiation) of war

Factors increasing the probability of the onset (occurrence/initiation) of war:



• Level of analysis: state



• Level of analysis: state Power status (major power)


Factors increasing the probability of the onset (occurrence/initiation) of war

• Level of analysis: state Power status (major power) Power cycle (critical point if major power)



• Level of analysis: state Power status (major power) Power cycle (critical point if major power) Alliance (alliance member)



• Level of analysis: state Power status (major power) Power cycle (critical point if major power) Alliance (alliance member) Borders (number of borders)


• Level of analysis: dyad


• Level of analysis: dyad Contiguity/proximity (common border/distance)



Political systems (absence of joint democracies)




Economic development (absence of joint advanced economies)





Static capability balance (parity)






Dynamic capability balance (unstable: transition)







Alliance (unbalanced external alliance-tie)







Alliance (unbalanced external alliance-tie)

Enduring rivalry


• Level of analysis: region


• Level of analysis: region Contagion/diffusion (presence of ongoing

regional war)



regional war)

• Level of analysis: system



regional war)

• Level of analysis: system Polarity (weak unipolarity/declining leader)



regional war)

• Level of analysis: system Polarity (weak unipolarity/declining leader) Unstable hierarchy



regional war)

• Level of analysis: system Polarity (weak unipolarity/declining leader) Unstable hierarchy Number of borders



regional war)

• Level of analysis: system Polarity (weak unipolarity/declining leader) Unstable hierarchy Number of borders Frequency of civil/revolutionary wars

War Causation: The Evidence• Seriousness of war

(magnitude/duration/severity) Factors increasing the probable seriousness (magnitude/duration/severity) of war:




• Level of analysis: system Alliance (high polarization)

War Causation: The Evidence– The Correlates of War (COW) Project defines an

'international war' as a military conflict waged between national entities, at least one of which is a state, and that results in at least 1,000 battle-deaths of military personnel.

– War magnitude – the sum of all participating nations' separate months of active involvement in each war

– War duration – the length in months from the inception of the war to its termination

– War severity – total battle deaths of military personnel in each war

• Source: Geller & Singer (1998: 27-28).

Theories of War Causation

Download - Theories of War Causation Schools & Variants Johan M.G. van der Dennen

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