Download - Systems Dynamics Modelling for BAs
System Dynamics Modelling for Business Analysts
IIBA UK Event – Barclays, Westwood Park
Martin KuncManaging Complexity Ltd / Warwick Business School
Agenda
• How I knew about System Dynamics (SD)
• Introduction to SD
• Case Study
How I knew about System Dynamics (SD)1994 – Started working at Arthur Andersen Business Consulting Practice
– In one of the many training activities, we were introduced to
An Event-Oriented View of Problems
Event-oriented view of the world
Situation
Goals
Problem Decision Results
SideEffectsGoals
Decisions
Environment
Goals ofOther
Agents Actions ofOthers
but also triggering side effects, delayed reactions, changesin goals and interventions by others. These feedbacks may
lead to unanticipated results and ineffective policies.
Our decisions alter our environment, leading to new decisions,
Goals
Decisions
Environment
A System Thinking View of Problems
How I knew about System Dynamics (SD)1997 – MBA, Course on System Dynamics Modelling
2000 – Ph.D., London Business School System Dynamics Modelling and Strategy
2003 – Project in Marketing
2005 – Project in Workforce Planning
2007 – Project in Supply Chain Redesign– Wine Tourism in Chile – Marketing
2010 – Pharmaceutical Industry – Pricing and Competition
Introduction to SD• Two main components:
• Feedback is one of the two main concepts of system dynamics theory.
• Stocks and Flows are the second central concept of system dynamics theory.
Introduction to SD
Market
Share
Unit
Costs
-
MarketShare
UnitCosts
ProductionVolume -
++ CumulativeProductionExperience
If your audience was confused by
you might make the intermediate concepts explicit as follows:
Introduction to SD
Introduction to SDCustomer
Base
ServiceResources
ServiceQuality
CustomerSatisfaction
Adequacyof Service
ServiceRequests
Delay
Delay
Dynamics of Multiple-Loop Systems
Sketch a graph showing the behaviour of the number of clients over time.
ClientsWord of Mouth Clients Clients
losses
• Claims unsolved, new claims, claims solved
• Employees, hiring, retiring
Introduction to SD
newclaims
claimssolved
newclaims
claimssolved
500
0
Introduction to SD - Modelling
Introduction to SD - Modelling
Case Study: Workforce PlanningKunc, M. 2008. Achieving a balanced organizational structure in professional services firms: Some lessons from a modeling project. System Dynamics Review, 24 (2): 119–143
Case Study: Workforce Planning
Case Study: Workforce Planning
Case Study: Workforce Planning
Case Study: Workforce Planning
Case Study: Workforce Planning
