Systems Approach to Modelling Food Sustainability: From Concepts to Practice

Ariella HelfgottFood Systems Research Group

Environmental Change InstituteUniversity of Oxford

?

Food security…

... exists when all people, at all times, have physical, economic and social access to sufficient, safe, and nutritious food to meet their dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life.

(UN-FAO World Food Summit 1996, 2012)

… is universally applicable… is more than food production… is underpinned by food systems

Food Systems include a set of ‘Activities’ …

… all of which contribute to crossingPlanetary Boundaries.

Agriculture as a driver of Land-cover Change‘Extensification’

• Biodiversity loss• Biodiversity loss• Soil degradation• Altered hydrology• Altered biogeochemical cycling• GHG emissions• … all PBs?

Species’ threats attributable to agriculture …

“Among the drivers of habitat loss for mammals,

agriculture and pastoralism are the most important,

together affecting 40% of terrestrial mammals”

IUCN, Red List of threatened species, 2010

Contribution of capture fisheries tobiodiversity loss

Agriculture as a source of GHG emissionsMt CO2-e, 2010

Worldwatch Institute’s Vital Signs Online Service (www.worldwatch.org)

But Food Systemsinvolve more than ‘agriculture’ …

UK’s food industry “costs”(post- farmgate)

defra, 2006

• 14% of energy consumption by UK businesses and 7 million tonnes of carbon emissions per year

• 10% of all industrial use of the public water supply

• 10% of the industrial and commercial waste stream

• 25% of all HGV vehicle kilometres in the UK

Processing Food: water use and effluent

• 10% of all industrial use of the public water supply

• Effluent significantly affects aquatic habitats• large amounts of organic materials such as proteins,

carbohydrates, and lipids• high biochemical oxygen demand (BOD) and/or

chemical oxygen demand (COD)• high N and P concentration• high suspended oil or grease contents• high variations in pH

Defra, 2006; Kroyer, 1995; Prasad et al. 2010

Packaging Food

• Use of raw materials for packaging• Real and virtual energy content• Litter• Adverse consequences of careless disposal

of packaging, esp. marine biodiversity

Packaging Food

• Litter• Adverse consequences of careless

disposal of packaging, esp. marine• Use of raw materials for packaging• Real and virtual energy content• 7% GHG emissions from UK food

system (Garnett, 2008)

Guardian 1 February 2009

Refrigerant leakage accounts for 30% of super-markets’ direct GHG emissions

(Environment Investigation Agency, 2010)

Retailing food

Producing

Processing

Distributing

Consuming

Waste disposing

IndiaUK USA

Edwards et al., Inst Agric & Trade Policy, 2009 Pathak et al, Ag, Ecosys & Env, 2010Garnett, FCRN, 2009

GHG emissions across Food Systems

Example contributions

of FSAs to PBs

Producing food

Processing & Packaging

food

Distributing & Retailing

food

Consuming food

Climate change

GHGs, albedo

Energy Emissions from transport and cold chain

GHGs from cooking

N cycle Eutrophicn, GHGs

Effluent NOx from transport

Waste

P cycle P reserves Detergents Waste

Fresh water use

Irrigation Washing, heating, cooling

Cleaning food Cooking, cleaning

Land use change

Intensificn, soil degdn

Paper/card Transport & retail infrastructure

Forest to edible oils plantation

Biodiversity loss

Deforestation, soils, fishing

[Aluminium] Invasive spp Consumer choices

Atmos.aerosols

Dust Shipping Smoke from cooking

Chemical pollution

Pesticides Effluent Transport emissions

Cooking, cleaning

?

Food Security, i.e. stability over time for:

FOOD UTILISATION

FOOD ACCESS

•Affordability•Allocation•Preference

•Nutritional Value•Social Value•Food Safety

FOOD AVAILABILITY

•Production•Distribution•Exchange

How do Climate Change and drivers of crossing Planetary Boundaries affect Food Security?

Extreme weather affects affordability…

Poor people tend to spend relatively more of their income on food, therefore suffer more when food prices go up

Cost of wheat is 10% of cost of loaf of bread in the US, but 90% cost of chapatti in India

… and food storage …

… and food distribution …

• Mycotoxins formed on plant products in the field or during storage

• Residues of pesticides in plant products affected by changes in managing increased pest pressure

• Marine biotoxins in seafood following production of phycotoxins by harmful algal blooms

• Pathogenic bacteria in foods during heat waves.

… and aspects of food safety.

Miraglia et al., Food and Chemical Toxicology, 2009

• UK normally exports ca. 2.5 Mt wheat / yr

• Wettest 2012 autumn since records began

• Coldest 2013 spring in 50 yr

=> UK expects to import 2.5 Mt in 2013

… and food availability ...

… and hence food price.

Consequences of the2008 Food Price Crisis

Agricultural intensificationleads to declines in pollinators …

Potts et al., 2010, Trends in Ecol & Evol

“… a widespread pattern of loss of pollinator richness and abundance as a result of agricultural intensification and habitat loss.” [since 1980]

… and tropospheric O3 pollution reduces yields.

Mills et al, NERC-CEH, 2011

Background

1. Planetary Boundary concerns are clear• climate change• biodiversity loss• other PBs• Complex interactions between the food

system and the environment2. Food Security a major concern

• ~ 1b hungry• ~ 2b insufficient nutrients• > 2.5b overweight or obese

So why the need to change things?

‘Post-farm gate’ Food System Activitiesprocessing, packaging, trading, shipping, storing, advertising, retailing, …

=> Final Nutrient Quantity and Price

Productivity Diversity & Quality

Local, Regional & Global Production Activitiesfarming, horticulture, livestock raising, aquaculture, fishing, …

=> Basic Nutrient Quantity and Price

Constraints on dietary choice and diversityaffordability, preference, allocation, cooking skill, convenience, cultural norms, …

=> Consumption by Sub-populations

Sufficient calsInsufficient nutrscurrently ~ 2 billion

Sufficient calsSufficient nutrs

currently ~ 3 billion

Goal: Sustainable Food and Nutrition Security

Excess cals (incl. some with insufficient nutrs)

currently >2.5 billion

CONSUMERS

PRODUCERS

Insufficient calsInsufficient nutrscurrently ~ 1 billion

FOOD CHAIN ACTORS

1

2200

- Too much - -- Too little --

Billions of people

----- Appropriate amount -----

(indicative; not to scale)

2 3 4 5 76 8 109

2050

2014

2025

kcal

/per

son/

day

cons

umed

------ Too much ------ --- Too little ------- Appropriate amount --------------- Too much ------------ ----- Too little -------- Appropriate amount ---

Too much -- Too little ------ Appropriate ----

2000

The biodiversity and other environmental consequences of meeting this demand with current food systems are dire

The potential health care costs from obesity-related NCDs are massive

The economic costs of diagnosed diabetes in the US alone in 2012 is $245 billion

Looking ahead ...

Resilience: common threads…

• Response of a system to disturbance or change

• All definitions describe one or more of these three types of behaviour:

• Absorbing/withstanding• Recovering• Adapting beneficially

Summary

Resilience is a property of a system that describes the nature of the response of the

system to a particular disturbance, of a particular magnitude, from the perspective

of a particular observer over a specified timescale

We need to know OF WHAT, TO WHAT, FROM WHOSE PERSPECTIVE, OVER WHAT TIME

FRAME

Framing resilience involves specifying…

Modelling the food system• Define system boundaries• Variables of interest • Changes and shocks of interest• Interventions of interest• Measures of success or improvement• Timeframe• These decisions will effect the results and

conclusions drawn from any model• Many participatory approaches available for

framing and modelling the food system

Modelling the Food System

• Different perspectives– Actors, activities, outcomes– Social, environmental, economic, political

• Types of models– Fuzzy Cognitive Maps– System Dynamics– Stochastic Models

‘Post-farm gate’ Food System Activitiesprocessing, packaging, trading, shipping, storing, advertising, retailing, …

=> Final Nutrient Quantity and Price

Productivity Diversity & Quality

Local, Regional & Global Production Activitiesfarming, horticulture, livestock raising, aquaculture, fishing, …

=> Basic Nutrient Quantity and Price

Constraints on dietary choice and diversityaffordability, preference, allocation, cooking skill, convenience, cultural norms, …

=> Consumption by Sub-populations

Sufficient calsInsufficient nutrscurrently ~ 2 billion

Sufficient calsSufficient nutrs

currently ~ 3 billion

Goal: Sustainable Food and Nutrition Security

Excess cals (incl. some with insufficient nutrs)

currently >2.5 billion

CONSUMERS

PRODUCERS

Insufficient calsInsufficient nutrscurrently ~ 1 billion

FOOD CHAIN ACTORS

✓ Adapt to inevitable change

✓ Mitigate further change

So what do we do about it?

=> Do the “doing things” differently …

Improve agriculture, livestock, horticulture, aquaculture, fisheries, …

• More varied crops

• Stress-tolerant varieties

• Novel food producing systems

• Improve water mgmt

• Insurance for producers

• Wider range of food stuffs

Range in land use (m2) per kg of edible protein… consider insect protein for better land-use …

De Vries and De Boer 2010; Oonincx and De Boer 2012.

… consider wholly novel foods …

… reduce food losses and waste …~ 30% worldwide

FAO, Global Food Losses and Food Waste, 2011

… and reduce over-consumption.

Thank you