SAFEFOODERASAFEFOODERA
Stakeholder Group Meeting with Retailers
– – Emerging Risks –Emerging Risks –
Ljubljana, 8 - 9 February 2007
Why Emerging Risk Identification?Why Emerging Risk Identification?
timely recognition of critical situations
increased number of options for action to risk managers
Emerging risk identification
crucial part of any coherent,effective and dynamic food policy
Europe: Article 34Europe: Article 34of Regulation (EC) No. 178/2002of Regulation (EC) No. 178/2002
... [EFSA] .... shall establish monitoring proceduresfor systematically searching for, collecting, collating and
analysing information and data with a view to theidentification of emerging risks in the fields within its mission.
major preventative instrument
usually neglected: long-term consequences andimpacts of factors outside the food chain
not incorporated adequately: various interacting processes which influence the evolution of a risk
often ignored: human factor (only simplistic or standardised schemes of behaviour)
Limitations of Risk AnalysisLimitations of Risk Analysis
PERIAPT- Workshop (Bonn, July 2004)
International Organisations
Research institutions
Industry
Consumer Organisations
Governmental Bodies
Hazard a biological, chemical or physical agent in,or condition of, food or feed with the potential to cause anadverse health effect
DefinitionsDefinitionsArticle 3 of Regulation (EC) No. 178/2002
Risk a function of the probability of an adverse healtheffect and the severity of that effect, consequential to a hazard
Emerging Risk a potential food or feed borne or diet-related hazard that may become a risk for human health in the (near) future
DefinitionsDefinitionsPeriapt 2004
AWACS (Airborne Early Warning and Control System)
The detected indicator (signal) is the hazard itself!
Early Warning System: AWACSEarly Warning System: AWACS
D A R TDeep-Ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunamis
Early Warning System:Early Warning System:TsunamiTsunami
The detected indicator (signal) is the hazard itself!
Weather Balloon (Antarctica)
Drought (Africa)
Flooding (Prague)
Observed indicators are not part of the hazard
but (possibly) suitable to detect a
risk proactively
Pro-active Methodology: Climate Forecast Pro-active Methodology: Climate Forecast
Emerging Risks: The Holistic ApproachEmerging Risks: The Holistic Approach
Food SafetyFood Safety
Science and Science and TechnologyTechnology
Culture/ Culture/ DemographyDemography
EconomyEconomy
MediaMedia
Nature Nature EnvironmentEnvironment
Consumer Consumer behaviorbehavior
Regulations/ Regulations/ enforcementenforcement
AgricultureAgricultureIndustryIndustry
Analysing the environment of the food supply chain.
Economy Globalisation
increasing complexity of food production chain – limitations in traceability
Nature & Environment Climate
modified behaviour of microorganisms could lead to new or different biological food risks
. . . .
„„Holistic Vision“Holistic Vision“
Flow diagram holistic approachFlow diagram holistic approach Periapt 2004
Influential sectors Critical factors Indicators
Nature &Environment
ClimateRainfall &
Temperature
Example: Emerging risk of contamination of crop by mycotoxin-producing moulds
Threats: interdisciplinary,complex and global issue
Status in 5 – 15 years:Status in 5 – 15 years:
Will fish from the arctic regions still be safe to eat?Will fish from the arctic regions still be safe to eat?
Key characteristics of anKey characteristics of anEmerging Risk IdentificationEmerging Risk Identification System System
anticipatory approach
process
no replacement of Early Warning Systems
What to do?What to do?
pro-active identification of food related risks
consideration of plurality of involved factors; identification and weighing of key issues
combination of specialised knowledge fromvarious disciplines
consideration of changing factors
Thank you for your attention!Thank you for your attention!
