Predicting Homicides in St. Louis City for 2013Chad Iseman - Geoff Hickman - Jon
Perkins - Yanhui Long - Mustafa Khalili
ObjectiveThe ability to accurately predict when and
where homicides will occur in the City of St. Louis grants us the ability to effectively allocate resources to prevent those crimes.
We will use statistical techniques and historical data sets to predict where homicides will occur in the city in 2013.
Approach
• Collect Datao Obtained 4 years of St. Louis city crime-related data by district
o Obtained demographic and socioeconomic data from 2010 census by district
o Obtained weather and gas price historical data
• Data Analysiso Analyzed data for correlations
o Conducted regression analysis to predict the number of district homicides for 2013
• Conclusiono Recommend increased police resource in districts with predicted high
homicide counts in 2013
Saint Louis CityEstimated population of
350,000.
Divided into 79 government designated neighborhoods and further divided into 9 districts.
Ranked 3rd most dangerous city in 2012 with 1,857 violent crimes per 100,000 people, and 58.7 forcible rapes per 100,000 people.
DefinitionsHomicide is the killing of a human being due to
the act or omission of another. Included among criminal homicides are murder and manslaughter.
Non-criminal homicides include killing in self-defense, a misadventure like a automobile wreck, or legal government execution.
[dictionary.law.com]
Why Districts?The City of St. Louis is
divided into 9 Police Districts. This makes access to crime data precise and reliable.
Using data referencing the 9 districts also allows us to present more meaningful recommendations.
Factors We Thought That Affect Crime
Gang activity
Municipal budget
Weather
Consumer price index
Gasoline prices
Sports teams performance
Riots
Drug use
Health
Population density
Demographics:
Marital status
Age
Race
Income
Employment status
Education level
Poverty level
Housing (multi or single)
Household income Hypothesis: Crime takes place, in large part, due scarcity or resources. Household income attempts to quantify each Districts challenges to provide adequate food, shelter and transportation.
District 1 $ 28,499.66
District 2 $ 38,016.40
District 3 $ 25,880.64
District 4 $ 13,957.68
District 5 $ 19,353.00
District 6 $ 24,155.81
District 7 $ 20,686.00
District 8 $ 20,724.00
District 9 $ 26,261.15 Based on 2010 Census
Poverty RateSimilar to average household income, the poverty rate also attempts to quantify each Districts challenges to provide adequate food, shelter and transportation.
District 1 24.63%
District 2 9.07%
District 3 42.17%
District 4 69.66%
District 5 56.38%
District 6 36.68%
District 7 44.73%
District 8 40.46%
District 9 29.02%Based on 2010 Census
UnemploymentDistrict 1 7.65%
District 2 4.00%
District 3 12.39%
District 4 26.49%
District 5 22.09%
District 6 16.36%
District 7 14.25%
District 8 15.28%
District 9 13.67%
Based on 2010 Census
Total crimes per person (all crimes)
Visually, you can see that the areas with the highest unemployment and poverty, and the lowest household income overlap with crime.
Based on 2010 Census
District 1 0.017
District 2 0.000
District 3 0.140
District 4 0.000
District 5 0.742
District 6 0.358
District 7 0.278
District 8 0.000
District 9 0.000
Murders - victims per 100 people
Based on 2010 Census
Homicides vs Temperature
Homicides vs Avg. Gas Price
Prediction Improvements
• Monthly Gang activity by district
• Monthly Police budget data by district
• Homicide categorization (gang related, vehicular, etc.)
• Gun owners by district updated monthly
• Average rent/mortgage payment by district
• Drug users by district per month
• CPI by district by month
Prediction ModelWe used the following factors to construct our homicide
prediction model:
• Rape incidents
• Armed robbery reports
• Total aggravated assaults
• Temperature
• Time of year
Total aggravated assaults and armed robbery had the highest correlation with homicides.
2013 Homicide Count Prediction = 114
Our Recommendations
• Dispatch additional resources to Districts 5,6, and 7 during the second half of the year.
• These additional resources can be allocated from Districts 1 and 2 during the time period.
Conclusion
Our prediction model can be used by police
resource managers to ensure that potential
homicide hot spots have adequate police
officers in the area.
