Download - Poland – Israel

Transcript
Page 1: Poland – Israel

Poland – Israel

Warsaw, June 2012

Business Cooperation Overview

Page 2: Poland – Israel

Israel – Macroeconomic Background

2

ISRAEL Unit Period Value

GDP volume billions of € 2011 174.71

GDP per capita € 2011 23,007

GDP growth rate % y/y 2011 4.80

Annual inflation rate % 2011 3.2

Current inflation rate % May 2011 4.10

Unemployment rate % 2011 5.60

Current unemployment rate % March

2012 6.90

Annual industrial output % y/y 2011 3.20

Industrial output % q/q 1Q 2012 -2.80

Total imports billions of € 2011 50.78

Total exports billions of € 2011 44.95

Population 7,869,900 Area 22,072 km2

Currency Shekel Capital Jerusalem HDI ratio 0.888 FX reserves 76.63 billions

of €

Source: Embassy of The Republic of Poland in Tel Aviv

Page 3: Poland – Israel

Poland – Macroeconomic Background

3

ISRAEL Unit Period Value

GDP volume billions of € 2011 382.5

GDP per/capita € 2011 10,068

GDP growth rate % y/y 2011 4.30

GDP growth rate % q/q 4q 2011 1.10

Annual inflation rate % 2011 4.60

Current inflation rate % March 2012 3.90

Unemployment rate % 2011 12.50

Current unemployment rate % March

2012 13.30

Annual industrial output % y/y 2011 7.70

Total imports billions of € 2011 150.5

Total exports billions of € 2011 135.8

Population 38,501,000  Area 312,679 km2

Currency Polish Zloty, PLN Capital Warsaw HDI ratio 0.813 FX reserves 70.2 billions of

Source: Central Statistical Office (GUS)

Page 4: Poland – Israel

Israel Stock Market

4

The number of listed companies on Israeli Stock Exchange has been remaining on the stable level for 8 consecutive years (about 600 units) and drop slightly in 2012

In the same period the number of listed companies on WSE went on the upward trend. There are 808 listed companies on regulated and alternative market (21 of them are foreign companies)

Average market capitalization on Tel-Aviv Stock Exchange stands at €298.43 m while on Warsaw Stock Exchange €151.19m

Situation on both capital markets has been following the same trend during last decade. Capitalization of Israeli Stock Exchange was exceeding Warsaw Stock Exchange by 50 percent

Since 2006 both stock exchanges incurred damages due to global financial turmoil. Capitalization of both markets dropped by about 40 percent

In 2012 effectiveness of both exchanges reached levels of ca. 170 billions of EUR and 120 billions of EUR retrospectively

Source: Stock Exchange in Tel Aviv

Source: Stock Exchange in Tel Aviv, Warsaw Stock Exchange

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20102011 20120

20406080

100120140160180

Tel-Aviv Stock Exchange Market capitalization 1999 - 2012 (€ m)

Tel-Aviv Stock Exchange Warsaw Stock Exchange

200220032004200520062007200820092010201120120

100200300400500600700800900

Number of listed companies (2002-2012)

Tel-Aviv Stock Exchange Warsaw Stock Exchange

Page 5: Poland – Israel

Foreign Trade – Facts and Figures 1/3

After the financial crisis in 2009, that has been the first plummet year in trade volume between Poland and Israel, 2011 brings a strong and rapid revival especially on the Polish exports side. Moreover, Poland as the only one country in EU reporting growth in 2009 gained in the eyes of Israeli businessmen and currently is perceived as a stable country with great development and expansion perspectives

In 2009 Poland has been in the black for the first time since many years in terms of Polish – Israel trade exchange

Imports to Israel stood at €283 m that makes 7 percent jump compared with 2010 Imports to Poland stood at €266 m that makes 8 percent jump compared with 2010 In 2011 exchange with Poland amounted to ca. 0.4% of Israeli balance of trade

turnover 5

Balance of Trade: Poland – Israel

Source: Polish Ministry of Economic AffairsSource: Polish Ministry of Economic Affairs

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

200100

0100200300400500600

Balance of Trade: Poland - Israel 2007 - 2011

(€ m)

ExportsImportsTurnoverBalance

Position ( € m) 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Exports from Poland

156.01

225.91

269.51 265.02 283.41

Imports to Poland

240.62

284.95

211.63 246.55 266.29

Turnover 396.62

510.86

481.14

511.58 549.69

Balance - 84.61

- 59.04

57.87

18.47 17.12

Page 6: Poland – Israel

Poland – Israel exchange has concentrated since many years on some group of goods. Poland imports from Israel mainly: Chemical products including insecticides and herbicides, phosphates, cosmetics,

medicines, organic sulfur compounds). These products accounted for 29.1 percent of all Polish imports from Israel

Electromechanical products including integrated circuits, apparatus for telephony and wireless telegraphy, signaling apparatus, instruments and medical equipment, car parts and accessories etc. These group accounted for 25.6 percent of total imports from Israel

Polish exports to Israel mainly follow product groups like: Means of transport with 23.1 percent in total exports Agricultural and food products (20 percent of total exports to Israel) including soft

drinks, sweets, chocolate, beef etc). Electromechanical products (chassis for vehicles, accumulators etc.) – 16 percent

share in total exports to Israel, Chemical industry products including medicines, cosmetics, preparations for oral

hygiene. Products represented 10.2 percent of exports volume 3 Moreover, among the major commodity groups in the structure of Polish exports to

Israel are other products like wood, paper and furniture

6

Foreign Trade – Facts and Figures 2/3

Page 7: Poland – Israel

7

Foreign Trade – Facts and Figures 3/3

In 2011 23 percent of Polish exports was generated by vehicles and parts

20 percent of trade volume was created by food article export such as beverages, baking articles etc.

The greatest exporters to Israel are: Man Star Trucks&Buses, XL Energy Marketing, Eko-Vit, Mondi Świecie, PLL Lot, Basell Orlen Polyolefins, Ferrero Polska, Celsa „Huta Ostrowiec”, Zakłady Metalowe „Mesko”

In 2011 29 percent of Polish imports from Israel was generated by chemicals such as pesticides, cosmetics etc.

26 percent of trade volume was created by import of electrical devices including integrated circuits, engines, turbines etc.

Main importers from Israel are: Makhteshim-Agan, Bumar, AB, Iscar-Poland, Teva Kutno, Fresh World-International, ABC Data Holding, Jeronimo Martins, Eurocast, Hortex Holding

23%

20%

16%

10%

7%

7%

17%

2011 Polish exports to Israel by sort of products (%)

Vehicles and partsFood articlesMachinery Chemical productsPaper articlesAnimal ProductsOther

29%

26%7%7%

7%

5%

20%

2011 Polish imports from Israel by sort of products (%)

Chemicals

Electrical devices

Guns and ammo

Guns and ammo

Food products

Textiles

Other

Source: Polish Ministry of Economic Affairs

Source: Polish Ministry of Economic Affairs

Page 8: Poland – Israel

Access to the Israeli market Israel is a member of the WTO, OECD and is an associate member of the

European Union. Poland signed with Israel free trade agreement. Only in relation to agricultural products there are some restrictions in the form of tariffs or quotas. Polish exporters are treated on a par with exporters from other countries and there was no application of the specific barriers in this regard

A special type of market access limitation is requirement of kosher. This barrier results from the religious character of a country. Consequently, pork and its products can not be a subject of export to Israel. Generally, for most food (except from meat), lack of kosher certificate is not a problem in imports. It should be emphasized that many Polish products posses kosher certificates, yet Israeli importers willingly cooperate in the field of certification, often incurring necessary costs

Trade procedures, customs and import requirements used in Israel are complied with those of EU

As far as sanitary, phytosanitary and veterinary requirements are concerned, it occurs to be complex to reach any design of necessary certificates. Any products being exported to Israel must meet local standards set by The Standard Institution of Israel. It is the role of Israeli importer to obtain a certificate for particular product

Isreal runs restrictive policy in terms of foreign citizens employment as well as consistent policy of illegal immigrants deportation. Legal employment is possible after obtaining visa with work permit. Such an option is available only in selected sectors of Israeli economy

8

Page 9: Poland – Israel

Capital & Investment Cooperation

According to the Central Bank of Poland (NBP) the inflow of direct investment from Israel to Poland in 2009 stood at € 13.9 m. Thus, Polish total net outstanding liabilities from Israeli direct investments amounted to € 119.6 m

The most significant Israeli investors active on Polish market are: Egged – TSL sector company Super Pharm – network of pharmacies Agan Makhteshim – chemical company that acquired Rokita Agro and

TEVA investment into Polfa Kutno Official statistics concerning Israeli investment in Poland differs from

estimates. Israeli capital involved in all Polish projects and ventures is expected to reach from 1.51 to 3.8 billions of €

A host of Israeli investors take advantage from Polish tax preferences by investing their financial resources into Polish economy via subsidiaries in Western Europe or in the USA

Other active players on Polish market: BST, Sorbit, Link 4, Cinema City, GTC, Plaza Centers, Ronson, Yona

Group, Karen GAP, ECI Telecom – Tadi Pol, Elite, Eden, Multilock The most lucrative sector for Israeli investors is real estate. Developers

supported by Israeli capital run their investments in main business regions in Poland e.i. Warsaw, Wroclaw, Poznan, Crakow, Łódź 9

Page 10: Poland – Israel

Development of bilateral cooperation

Department of Trade and Investment Promotion (WPHI) as well as economic department of the Polish Embassy in Tel Aviv take steps to strengthen business relation between Poland and Israel

Mentioned actions are aimed at arousing an interest of Israeli importers, enterprises and institutions with Polish market. WPHI participates annually in informational and promotional events such as fairs, conferences, seminars, meetings taking benefit from the opportunity to present the offer of Polish companies, culture and investment perspectives

Stimulation of the Polish – Israeli economic cooperation is conducted also through providing detailed information concerning procedures, requirements and provisions for running business in Poland and Israel

Undisputed role in the process of building Polish – Israeli business cooperation is credited to WPHI department in Tel Aviv which regularly publishes offers of Polish exporters, Israeli importers etc

WPHI maintains ongoing contacts with Institute of Export and International Cooperation, Federation of Israeli Chambers of Commerce, Business Association of Israel, Polish-Israeli Chamber of Commerce

10

Page 11: Poland – Israel

Situation on Polish financial market 1/2

The greatest impact on the market participants was inflicted by: fiscal situation in the so-called peripheral euro zone countries

(PIGS region) inflow of negative macroeconomic signals from U.S., EU and

China effects of earthquakes in Japan

Negative trends around the world caused an increase of investors risk aversion, what was reflected in the trading of foreign exchange, shares and commodities indices

11

17

14852

PolandSpain

HungaryGermany

GreeceUSA

15001200 900

600

300

PolandGreece

HungarySpain

GermanyItaly

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Yield of 10 – year Treasury Bonds 2006 – 2010 (%) Rates of 5 – year CDS 2006 – 2010 (basis points)

Source: KNF Source: KNF

Page 12: Poland – Israel

Situation on Polish financial market 2/2

Credit Default Swap is a form of insurance that protects the buyer of the CDS in the case of a loan default. If the borrower defaults (fails to repay the loan), the lender who has bought traditional insurance can exchange or "swap" the defaulted loan instrument (and with it the right to recover the default at some later time) for money - usually the face value of the loan.

Credit default swaps have existed since the early 1990s, and increased in use after 2003. By the end of 2007, the outstanding CDS amount was €45.48 trillion, falling to €26.22 trillion by the end of 2008

12

6

4

2

0

NBP ECB SNB EURIBOR 3MWIBOR3MLIBOR CHF 3M FRA 6 x 9

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Interest rates of Central Banks 2006 – 2010 (%) Rates on money market 2006 – 2010 (%)

FED

6

4

2

0

2010.02.24 2010.08.09 2010.12.23 2011.04.09 2011.08.12

4000

3000

2000

1000

GreeceSpainGermany

Poland Portugal

USA

Comparison of spreads for 5 – year bonds (points)

Source: KNF

Source: KNF

Source: KNF

Page 13: Poland – Israel

Macroeconomic Review of Poland

13

GDP growth. Poland is the only one country in European Union that reported positive growth rate in three consecutive years during financial crisis and its repercussions. Real GDP growth in 2010 reached 3.8 % y/y. In 2011 GDP growth rate is expected to reach 4.3%. Accumulated GDP growth in 2008-2011 amounted to 15.8%, and was the highest in the EU.

Unemployment rate. After reaching peak value at 13.4% in February 2011, the unemployment rate took on a moderate downward trend. Throughout the 2012 it oscillated a bit under 12% to reach 12.5% in December 2011. An average unemployment rate in 2010 stood at 12.4%. According to the Ministry of Labor and Social Policy unemployment rate at the end of 2012 will remain constant and amount to 12.3%. However some international organizations like IMF or EC expect the rate to go south and reach single-digit number. It may be caused by the final stage of preparations of UEFA Euro 2012 which are likely to generate significant number of jobs, especially in hospitality industry.

Inflation rate. The Consumer Pricing Index in 2010 stood at 2.6%. Yet from the beginning of 2011 index has been permanently rising to reach 4.5% in December. An average inflation rate in 2011 amounted to 4.3%. According to the NBP’s latest inflation central path projection the CPI will stand at 4.1% in 2012 and decrease to 2.9% in 2013 and 2.0% in 2014. Public finance. Public debt level as a percentage of GDP volume stood at 55.40% in 2010. In 2011 it amounted to 56.4% of GDP. Accumulated public debt growth in 2008-2011 accounted for 5.8% (excl. Open-End Pension Funds) which is one of the best scores in the EU.

PMI Index. In December 2010 PMI level reached a 6-year-high at 56.3 points. Such an optimistic level reflects the flourishing condition of Polish economy. Levels over 50 points mean upswing, whereas results below 50 points designate contraction in economic growth. At the end of 2011 PMI Index reached a level of 48.8 points which is a local bottom.

Individual consumption. An index in 2010 reported a positive contribution of 3.2%. Over 2011 the index followed a moderate upward trend to reach 3.4% in December.

Page 14: Poland – Israel

Polish Capital Market 1/2

Market capitalization of Warsaw Stock Exchange reached a peak in May 2011 of €152 b. In December 2011 it dropped by 27 percent to €108b from May peak.

WIG 20 (index consisting of 20 biggest Polish companies) dropped by 23 percent from 2750 (January 2011) to 2100 points (May 2012)

Average P/E of companies listed on WSE slipped from 16.40 in May 2011 to ca. 8 in May 2012, while average P/BV ratio dipped from 1,56 in May to 1.10 in August

Share prices of all listed companies are currently underestimated what can encourage investors to submit purchase orders due to price increase expectations and bear market turn-around

Capital market experts believe that now is a perfect time for companies to acquire at least minority stake in the most prospective firms due to low valuations

14

WIG 20 P/E ratio (2011 – 2012) WIG 20 P/BV ratio (2011 – 2012)

Source: stooq.pl Source: stooq.pl

Source: WSE

Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr MayJun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr MayJun Jul Aug Sep

Jan FebMar AprMay Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct NovDec Jan FebMar Apr90

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

Market Capitalization of Warsaw Stock Exchange in 2011-2012 (billions of €)

Page 15: Poland – Israel

Dąbrowski Finance cooperation with Israel

Dąbrowski Finance has well-established business relations with Israeli investors and entrepreneurs

Company currently implements Real Estate projects for huge Israeli investor

Dąbrowski Finance represents the Israeli clients applying to one or more banks or other financial institutions for financing

At every stage of the process, DF cooperates closely with the customer both in drawing up documentation and applying for credit

DF actively supports the customer in creating credit documentation, especially in defining covenants, i.e. obligations to act or to refrain required by the bank

15

Our customers in Poland and in other European markets:

We have also established business relations with USA, China and Israel

Page 16: Poland – Israel

DF Team

Jarosław Dąbrowski Founder and Managing

Partner

Zbigniew Karwowski Vice President of the

BoardPiotr Buszka

Partner Marcin Zieliński

Partner

Over 16 years of experience in the financial sector

16 years of experience in the financial sector

Legal Counsellor. 16 years of

experience in the financial sector

15 years of experience in the financial sector

Banking. finance and investment

Banking. leasing and factoring Commercial law Investment funds

and banking

The University of Warsaw. Faculty of Law and

Administration

Edinburgh University Management School

University of Navarra (IESE) in Barcelona

Pedagogical University of

Cracow. Degree in Modern History

Georgetown University in Washington

University of Wisconsin in the College Business

Administration.

Adam Mickiewicz University in Poznań. Faculty of Law and

Administration

Warsaw School of Economy, Faculty of Finance and Banking

16

Page 17: Poland – Israel

Disclaimer

17

The contents of this presentation of the company DF Ltd.. have been collected and prepared to the best knowledge of the author and on the basis of reliable sources. All the presented opinions and assessments of the current market situation express the opinions of the author at the moment of preparing the presentationDF Ltd. shall not bear responsibility for decisions met on the basis of the contents of the presentation. The Presentation is of solely informative character and its contents should not be regarded as advertisement. offer or endorsement to buy or sell any services or productsThe document shall be treated solely as marketing material. it should not be regarded as an offer. advice or investment recommendation or independent financial analysisAll trademarks and brand names mentioned in the presentation are subject to relevant legal provisions. The trademarks or brand names might have been reserved solely for information purposes. Using the trademarks included in the presentation requires the explicit written consent of the authorized entity

Page 18: Poland – Israel

We strongly invite you to do business with DF in Poland and CEE

18

Dąbrowski Finance Ltd.Trust & ProfessionalismMetropolitan Building

1 Piłsudski Square, 3rd floor00-078 Warsaw

Tel.: + 48 22 344 04 00Fax: + 48 22 344 04 10

E-mail: j.dabrowski@dabrowskifinance.

euwww.dabrowskifinance.eu


Top Related