Transcript
Page 1: Mumbai Real Estate Outlook Report H1 2015

MUMBAIRESIDENTIAL

JANUARY TO JUNE 2015

Page 2: Mumbai Real Estate Outlook Report H1 2015

RESIDENTIAL MARKET IN DOLDRUMSDid freebies and easy financing schemes prop up demand?

Will developers cope up?

Is property price correction in Mumbai imminent?

Page 3: Mumbai Real Estate Outlook Report H1 2015

INVESTORS AND END-USERS CONCERNED;DEVELOPERS RESPOND, PRICE GROWTH SLOWS

Page 4: Mumbai Real Estate Outlook Report H1 2015

H1 20

13

H2 20

13

H1 20

14

H2 20

14

H1 20

15 -

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

57

,00

7

52

,22

2

35

,51

2

26

,83

3

18

,88

7

41

,37

7

32

,71

7

31

,21

0

36

,50

5

28

,44

6

Launches Absorption

No

. o

f u

nit

s

NEW LAUNCHES DROP BY 47% Y-O-Y; DEMAND BY 9%H1 2015 - THE WORST HALF YEARLY PERIOD POST GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISIS

Page 5: Mumbai Real Estate Outlook Report H1 2015

H1 20

13

H2 20

13

H1 20

14

H2 20

14

H1 20

15 4,000

4,500

5,000

5,500

6,000

6,500

7,000

7,500

8,000

6,818 7,085

7,382

7,796 7,994

Wt. Avg. Price (RHS)

No

. o

f u

nit

s

PRICES STAGNANT

Page 6: Mumbai Real Estate Outlook Report H1 2015

PERIPHERAL WESTERN SUBURBS

Dadar, Lower Parel, Mahalakshmi, Worli, Prabhadevi

CENTRAL MUMBAI

Sion, Chembur, Wadala,

Kurla, Ghatkopar, Vikhroli, Bhandup, Mulund

CENTRAL SUBURBS

Vashi, Nerul, Belapur

Kharghar, Airoli, Panvel, Ulwe, Sanpada

NAVI MUMBAI

Kalyan, Kalwa, Dombivili,

Ambernath, Bhiwandi, Mumbra, Karjat

PERIPHERAL CENTRAL SUBURBSVasai, Virar, Boisar, Palghar, Bhayandar, Nalasopara

Malabar Hill, Napean Sea Road, Walkeshwar, Altamount Road, Colaba

SOUTH MUMBAI

Ghodbunder Road, Pokhran Road, Majiwada, Khopat, Panchpakhadi

THANE

Bandra, Andheri, Goregaon,

Kandivali, Borivali, Santa Cruz, Vile Parle

WESTERN SUBURBS

40%

127% 1%

(6%)

33%

51%

7%

20%

97%

30% (3%)

(20%)

8%

(7%)

(32%)

(20%)

H2 2014

H1 2015

Proposed International Airport

ñ

HOWEVER, CENTRAL SUBURBS AND CENTRAL MUMBAI HAVE SEEN SUBSTANTIAL GROWTH Y-O-Y

Page 7: Mumbai Real Estate Outlook Report H1 2015

DEVELOPERS FORAYING INTO LOCATIONS BEYOND THANE FOR AFFORDABLE HOUSING

Page 8: Mumbai Real Estate Outlook Report H1 2015

<2.5 mn 2.5-5 mn 5-7.5 mn 7.5-10 mn 10-20 mn >20 mn0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%Central Mumbai Central Suburbs Navi Mumbai Peripheral Central Suburbs

Peripheral Western Suburbs South Mumbai Thane Western Suburbs

59% OF NEW LAUNCHES BELOW INR 2.5 MN IN KALWA, KALYAN, DOMBIVALI, AMBARNATH

INR

Page 9: Mumbai Real Estate Outlook Report H1 2015

CENTRAL SUBURBS TAKES LEAD IN LAUNCHES IN THE LAST 6 MONTHS

Page 10: Mumbai Real Estate Outlook Report H1 2015

MULUND, KANJURMARG, CHEMBUR SEE BIG LAUNCHES; CONTRIBUTES 28% OF NEW LAUNCHES IN JAN – JUN 2015

Central Mumbai

Central Suburbs

Navi Mumbai Peripheral Central Suburbs

Peripheral Western Suburbs

South Mumbai Thane Western Suburbs

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

3%

15%13%

26%

19%

0%

10%

15%

0%

20%

25%

36%

2%0%

5%

12%

0%

28%

12%

23%

10%

0%

13% 14%

H1 2014 H2 2014 H1 2015

892

5,15

2

5,1

945,

240

4,44

5

2,2

246,

630

9,12

9

4,3

259,

780

6,64

1

1,9

35

560

3,69

4

2,4

86

1,39

0

5,40

0

2,6

863,

133

Page 11: Mumbai Real Estate Outlook Report H1 2015

NO NEW LAUNCHES IN PREMIUM MARKET WITH HOMES MORE THAN INR 5 CRORE

Page 12: Mumbai Real Estate Outlook Report H1 2015

H1 2013 H2 2013 H1 2014 H2 2014 H1 2015 -

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

25,000

26,000

27,000

28,000

29,000

30,000

31,000

32,000

33,000

34,000

35,000 1

,53

2

1,5

83

1,1

40

12

1

1,3

55

87

7

54

0

65

0

79

5

30,012

31,182

32,197 32,469

33,025

Launches Absorption Wt. Avg. Price (RHS)

No

. o

f u

nit

s

INR

/sq

ft

SUPPLY IN PREMIUM MARKET CONTRACTS FASTER THAN DEMAND

Page 13: Mumbai Real Estate Outlook Report H1 2015

IT WILL TAKE AROUND 3.5 YEARS TO OFFLOAD UNSOLD INVENTORY IN PREMIUM MARKETS; MMR TO TAKE 3 YEARS

Page 14: Mumbai Real Estate Outlook Report H1 2015

Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14 Jun-14 Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 Jun-15 -

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0

18.0

20.0

No

. o

f Q

uar

ters

SALES IN PREMIUM MARKETS IN TANDEM WITH CITY SALES

PREMIUM MARKETS

MMR

Page 15: Mumbai Real Estate Outlook Report H1 2015

SOUTH MUMBAI CONTINUES TO SUFFER; 5 YEARS TO OFFLOAD CURRENT INVENTORY

8 11 14 17 20 237

10

13

16

19

QTS

Age

of I

nven

tory

in q

uart

ers

CENTRAL MUMBAI

SOUTH MUMBAI

CENTRAL SUBURBS

WESTERN SUBURBS

PERIPHERAL WESTERN SUBURBS

NAVI MUMBAI

PERIPHERAL CENTRAL SUBURBS THANE

Page 16: Mumbai Real Estate Outlook Report H1 2015

CONSUMER INTEREST TO REMAIN TEPID IN H2 2015

Page 17: Mumbai Real Estate Outlook Report H1 2015

OUTLOOK FOR THE NEXT 6 MONTHS

  LAUNCHES (UNITS)

SALES(UNITS)

WEIGHTED AVERAGE PRICE

(INR/SQ FT)

H2 2014 26,833 36,505 7,796

H1 2015 18,887 28,446 7,994

H2 2015 E 20,776 34,135 7,994

Page 18: Mumbai Real Estate Outlook Report H1 2015

HOW DOES MUMBAI STAND COMPARED TO OTHER CITIES

Page 19: Mumbai Real Estate Outlook Report H1 2015

LAUNCHES- ALL MAJOR CITIES

H1 2015

BENGALURU 21,400

MUMBAI 18,887

PUNE 12,762

NCR 11,360

CHENNAI 9,102

KOLKATA 8,372

AHMEDABAD 8,062

HYDERABAD 5,457

  H1 2014

BENGALURU 35,545

MUMBAI 35,512

NCR 35,500

PUNE 16,883

CHENNAI 11,377

AHMEDABAD 9,021

KOLKATA 8,444

HYDERABAD 7,899

INCLUDING MUMBAI WITNESS DRASTIC FALL

Page 20: Mumbai Real Estate Outlook Report H1 2015

SALES

H1 2015

MUMBAI 28,446

BENGALURU 22,234

PUNE 15,524

NCR 14,250

CHENNAI 9,091

AHMEDABAD 7,751

HYDERABAD 7,123

KOLKATA 5,883

  H1 2014 H2 2014

MUMBAI 31,210 36,505

NCR 28,500 12,075

BENGALURU 27,256 28,445

PUNE 14,719 20,150

CHENNAI 10,315 10,643

AHMEDABAD 10,472 8,019

HYDERABAD 7,282 7,829

KOLKATA 6,390 6,245

- SIMILAR TREND IN SALES

Page 21: Mumbai Real Estate Outlook Report H1 2015

HEALTH OF MUMBAI RESIDENTIAL MARKET A BIG CHALLENGE

5 7 9 11 13 15 17 195

7

9

11

13

15

QTS

Age

of

unso

ld in

vent

ory

in q

uart

ers

MUMBAI

PUNE

AHMEDABAD

HYDERABAD

KOLKATA

NCR

BENGALURU

CHENNAI

Page 22: Mumbai Real Estate Outlook Report H1 2015

MUMBAIOFFICEMARKET

JANUARY TO JUNE 2015

Page 23: Mumbai Real Estate Outlook Report H1 2015

OFFICE MARKET SLOW AND STEADY

Page 24: Mumbai Real Estate Outlook Report H1 2015

DEMAND HOLDS, PROJECT COMPLETIONS DELAYED

H1 20

13

H2 20

13

H1 20

14

H2 20

14

H1 20

15 -

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

3.8 3.8 2.9

6.4

2.3

3.8

2.4 2.5

4.8

2.5

New completions Absorption

mn

sq

ft

ALL NUMBERS IN MN SQ FT

Page 25: Mumbai Real Estate Outlook Report H1 2015

MARGINAL DECREASE IN VACANCY; DEARTH OF LARGE SIZED QUALITY OFFICE SPACE

H1 20

13

H2 20

13

H1 20

14

H2 20

14

H1 20

150

20

40

60

80

100

120

15.0%

18.0%

21.0%

24.0%

99 103 106 112 114

77 79 82 87 89

22.3%22.8% 22.5% 22.6%

21.9%

Stock Occupied Stock Vacancy (RHS)

mn

sq

ft

ALL NUMBERS IN MN SQ FT

Page 26: Mumbai Real Estate Outlook Report H1 2015

VACANCY

CUFFE PARADE

NARIMAN POINT

WORLILOWER PAREL

DADAR

VASHI

GHANSOLI

AIROLI

BELAPUR

VIKHROLI

KURLA

BHANDUP

ANDHERI

GOREGAON

MALAD

BALLARD ESTATE

THANE

POWAI

BKC

KALINA

CBD & OFF-CBD

PBD

SBD WEST

CENTRAL MUMBAI

BKC & OFF BKC

Proposed International Airport

ñ

9%

17%

10%

33%17%

26%

SBD CENTRAL

VACANCY ACROSS BUSINESS DISTRICTS

OVERALL 22%

Page 27: Mumbai Real Estate Outlook Report H1 2015

DIVERSIFIED OCCUPIER BASE; BANKING & FINANCIAL SERVICES AN ANCHOR

Page 28: Mumbai Real Estate Outlook Report H1 2015

MEDIA, CONSULTING, E-COMMERCE INCREASED THEIR TALLY

BFSI IT/ITES Manufacturing Other services0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

15%12%

48%

25%

40%

26%

10%

24%26%

16% 17%

40%

H1 2014 H2 2014 H1 2015

0.3

7

1.9

4

0.6

7

0.3

1

1.2

3

0.4

1

1.2

1

0.4

6

0.4

3

0.6

4

1.1

8

1.0

2

ALL NUMBERS IN MN SQ FT

Page 29: Mumbai Real Estate Outlook Report H1 2015

COMPETITIVE RENTS, IMPROVED EAST-WEST CONNECTIVITY GIVE AN EDGE TO POWAI, VIKHROLI, ANDHERI, GOREGAON

Page 30: Mumbai Real Estate Outlook Report H1 2015

BKC & Off-BKC CBD & Off-CBD Central Mumbai PBD SBD Central SBD West0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

14%

2%

14%

31%

11%

27%

17%

2%

7%

21%19%

34%

H1 2014 H1 2015

SBD CENTRAL AND SBD WEST TOGETHER ACCOUNT FOR HALF THE MARKET

0.3

6

0.4

4

0.0

5

0.0

5

0.3

6

0.1

8

0.7

8

0.5

2

0.2

8

0.4

8

0.6

9

0.8

7

Page 31: Mumbai Real Estate Outlook Report H1 2015

MUMBAI TO RETAIN ITS DIVERSIFIED OCCUPIER BASE; NEW ‘IT’ POLICY UNLIKELY TO BE A GAME CHANGER

Page 32: Mumbai Real Estate Outlook Report H1 2015

OUTLOOK FOR THE NEXT 6 MONTHS

 NEW

COMPLETIONS (MN SQ FT)

ABSORPTION (MN SQ FT)

VACANCYWEIGHTED AVERAGE

RENT (INR/SQ FT/MONTH)

H2 2014 6.4 4.8 22.6% 118

H2 2015E 4.3 5.2 20.4% 123

GROWTH (32%) 8% 4%

Page 33: Mumbai Real Estate Outlook Report H1 2015

HOW DOES MUMBAI STAND COMPARED TO OTHER CITIES

Page 34: Mumbai Real Estate Outlook Report H1 2015

VACANCY LEVELS HIGHEST IN THE COUNTRY

Mumbai NCR Bengaluru Pune Chennai Hyderabad -

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%22%

21%

8%

15%

18%16%

New completions Absorption Vacancy (RHS)

mn

sq

ft

H1 2015

Page 35: Mumbai Real Estate Outlook Report H1 2015

KEY TAKEAWAYSRESIDENTIALMUMBAIRECORDS THE WORST HALF YEARLY PERIOD POST THE GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISIS

OFFICEMUMBAIVACANCY HIGHEST IN INDIA ALTHOUGH OCCUPIERS UNABLE TO FIND THEIR PREFERRED SPACES DUE TO LIMITED SUPPLY

Page 36: Mumbai Real Estate Outlook Report H1 2015

MUMBAIREAL ESTATE

JANUARY TO JUNE 2015


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