Multi-model intercomparison of the impact of SORCE measurements in climate models
TOSCA WG1 Workshop 14-16 May 2012, Berlin
K. Matthes(1), F. Hansen(1), J.D. Haigh(2), J.W. Harder(3), S. Ineson(4), K. Kodera(5,6), U. Langematz(7), D.R. Marsh(8), A.W. Merkel(3), P.A. Newman(9), S. Oberländer(7), A.A. Scaife(4), R.S. Stolarski(9,10), W.H. Swartz(11)
(1) Helmholtz-Zentrum für Ozeanforschung Kiel (GEOMAR), Kiel, Germany; (2) Imperial College, London, UK; (3) LASP, CU, Boulder, USA; (4) Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, UK; (5) Meteorological Research Institute, Tsukuba, Japan; (6) STEL University of Nagoya, Nagoya, Japan; (7) Freie Universität Berlin, Institute für Meteorologie, Berlin, Germany; (8) NCAR, Boulder USA; (9) NASA GSFC, Greenbelt, USA; (10) John Hopkins University, Baltimore, USA; (11) JHU Applied Physics Laboratory, Laurel, USA
• Introduction & Motivation
• Model Descriptions & Experimental Design
• Preliminary results from the multi-model comparison
• Summary
• Outlook
Outline
• „SIM‘s solar spectral irradiance measurements from April 2004 to December 2008 and inferences of their climatic implications are incompatible with the historical solar UV irradiance database […] but are consistent with known effects of instrument sensitivity drifts.“
• „To prevent future research following a path of unrealistic solar-terrestrial behavior, the SORCE SIM observations should be used with extreme caution in studies of climate and atmospheric change until additional validation and uncertainty estimates are available.“
Introduction – Lean and DeLand (2012)
1. Do the SIM measurements provide real solar behavior or are they related to instrument drifts?
1. What are the effects of larger UV variability on the atmospheric response?
Motivation – 2 Questions
„Top-Down Mechanism“
Gray et al. (2010)
„Top-Down“: Dynamical Interactions and Transfer to the Troposphere 10-day mean wave-mean flow interactions (Max-Min)
u
Stratospheric waves(direct solar effect) Tropospheric waves
(response to stratospheric changes)
EPF
Matthes et al. (2006)
+
- -
+
+
+
Significant tropospheric effects (AO-like pattern) result from changes in wave forcing in the stratosphere and troposphere which changes the meridional circulation and surface pressure
Matthes et al. (2006)+2K
ΔT
Modeled Signal near Earth Surface
Monthly mean Differences geop. Height (Max-Min) – 1000hPa
Uncertainty in Solar Irradiance Data
Solar Max-MinNRLSSI vs. SATIRE
Lean et al. (2005) Krivova et al. (2006)
• larger variation in Krivova data in 200-300 and 300-400nm range• SORCE measurements from 2004 through 2007 show very different spectral distribution (in-phase with solar cycle in UV, out-of-phase in VIS and NIR)
=> Implications for solar heating and ozone chemistry
NRLSSI vs. SIM/SORCE
Participating Models
Model Description &Experimental Design
Caveat: all models used a slightly different experimental setup, so it won’t be possible to do an exact comparison!
SOCOL, T42, L39, 0.01 hPa, nudged QBO, see talk by Eugene Rozanov this afternoon
Differences in Experimental Setup
Experimental Design
Time series of F10.7cm solar flux SC23„solar max“ 2004
„solar min“ 20072004:
“solar max” (declining phase
of SC23)
2007:“solar min”
(close to minimum of SC23)
January Mean Differences (25N-25S)
NRL SSISORCE
Shortwave Heating Rate (K/d) Temperature (K)
• larger shortwave heating rate and temperature differences for SORCE than NRL SSI data• FUB-EMAC and HadGEM only include radiation, not ozone effects
January Mean Differences(25N-25S)
Ozone (%) Temperature (K)
• larger ozone variations below 10hPa and smaller variations above for SORCE than NRL SSI data• height for negative ozone signal in upper strat. differs between models
NRL SSISORCE
• Large Multi Model Mean: all 5 models (FUB-EMAC, GEOS, HadGEM, IC2D, WACCM)
• Small Multi Model Mean: 3 models (GEOS, HadGEM, WACCM)
Definition Ensemble Mean
Shortwave Heating Rate Differences January (K/d)
Large multi-model mean (EMAC-FUB, GEOS, HadGEM, IC2D, WACCM)
Small multi-model mean (GEOS, HadGEM, WACCM)
NR
L SS
ISO
RC
E
• NRL SSI shortwave heating rates: 0.2 K/d • SORCE shortwave heating rates: 0.9 K/d (4x NRL SSI response)
Temperature Differences January (K)
Large multi-model mean (EMAC-FUB, GEOS, HadGEM, IC2D, WACCM)
Small multi-model mean (GEOS, HadGEM, WACCM)
• NRL SSI temperatures: 0.3 to 0.6 K (stratopause) • SORCE temperatures: 1.5 to 1.8 K (5x NRL SSI response) colder polar stratosphere
NR
L SS
ISO
RC
E
Ozone Differences January (%)
Large multi-model mean (GEOS, IC2D, WACCM)
NR
L SS
ISO
RC
E
• larger ozone variations below 10hPa and smaller variations above for SORCE than NRL SSI data• height for negative ozone signal in upper strat. differs between models
Zonal Wind Differences January (m/s)
Large multi-model mean (EMAC-FUB, GEOS, HadGEM, IC2D, WACCM)
Small multi-model mean (GEOS, HadGEM, WACCM)
• consistently stronger zonal wind signals for SORCE than NRL SSI data• wind signal in SORCE data characterized by strong westerly winds at polar latitudes, and significant and similar signals in NH troposphere
NR
L SS
ISO
RC
E
SORCE Differences NH Winter – small ensemble mean
Zonal mean zonal wind (m/s)
December January February
• downward extension of westerly zonal wind signals to the troposphere
SORCE Geopot. Height Differences January (gpdm)
500 hPa100 hPa
NAO/AO positive signal during solar max
10 hPa
Solar Cycle & NAO
Solar Max: NAO positive (high index) Colder stratosphere => stronger NAO,
i.e. stronger Iceland low, higher pressure over Azores amplified storm track
mild conditions over northern Europe and eastern US
=> dry conditions in the mediterranean
Solar Cycle & NAO
Solar Max: NAO positive (high index)
Solar Min: NAO negative (low index)
Matthes (2011)
Consistently larger amplitudes in 2004 to 2007 in solar signals for SORCE than for NRL SSI data in temperature, ozone, shortwave heating rates, zonal winds and geopotential heights
Larger ozone variations below 10hPa and smaller variations above for SORCE than NRL SSI data; height for negative ozone signal in upper stratosphere differs between models
Solar cycle effect on AO/NAO contributes to substantial fraction of typical year-to-year variations and therefore is a potentially useful source of improved decadal climate predictability (Ineson et al. (2011))
Results for the SORCE spectral irradiance data are provisional because of the need for continued degradation correction validation and because of the short length of the SORCE time series which does not cover a full solar cycle
Summary
• Paper on multi-model comparison to be submitted before 31st July
• coordinated sensitivity experiments within the SPARC-SOLARIS Initiative for a typical solar max (2002) and solar min (2008) spectrum from the NRL SSI, SATIRE and the SORCE (and possibly other data or reconstructions? SCIA, COSI?) data to investigate the atmospheric and surface climate response between the models in a more consistent way
SOLARIS/HEPPA workshop 9-12 October 2012 in Boulder
http://www2.acd.ucar.edu/heppasolaris
Outlook
Estes Park/RMNP, 10-15-2011
Thank you very much!