Transcript
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    A STUDY ON THE ANALYSIS OF VOLATILITY OF REALTY

    SECTOR SCRIPS INCLUDED IN SENSEX

    By

    Your Name

    (REG NO. ----------------)

    A PROJECT REPORT

    Submitted to the

    FACULTY OF MANAGEMENT STUDIES

    in partial fulfillment for the award of the degree

    of

    MASTER OF BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION

    IN FINANCE

    COLLEGE NAME

    UNIVERSITY NAME

    CITYPONCODEMONTHYEAR

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    BONAFIDE CERTIFICATE

    This is to certify that the project report entitled A study on the analysis

    Volatility of Reality sector Scrips included in the Sensex is a

    bonafide work done by Mr. YOUR NAME

    (Reg. No. -----------) and a student of M.B.A in COLLEGE NAME

    FACULTY GUIDE HEAD OF THE DEPARTMENT

    Assessed by

    INTERNAL EXAMINER EXTERNAL EXAMINER

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    ABSTRACT

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    ACKNOWLEDGEMENT

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    TABLE OF CONTENTS

    Chapt

    eNo.

    PageNo.

    1 Introduction

    1.1. Research Background 7

    1.2. Identified Problem 8

    1.3. Need for the Study 8

    1.4. Objective of Study 9

    1.5. Scope of Study 9

    1.6. Deliverables 92 Literature Survey

    2.1 Review of Literature 11-15

    2.2 Research Gap 16

    3 Methodology

    3.1 Type of project 19

    3.2 Target respondents 19

    3.3 Assumptions, Limitations and constraints 20

    3.4 Sampling Methods 203.5. Data Analysis 21

    3.6. Tools for Analysis 22

    4 Data Analysis and Interpretation

    Analysis and Interpretation 23-46

    5 Results of the Study

    5.1 Summary of findings 48-50

    5.2 Suggestion and Recommendations 51

    5.3 Conclusions 52Appendix 53-52

    References 63

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    CHAPTER 1

    INTRODUCTION

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    INTRODUCTION

    1.1 RESEARCH BACKGROUNDDESCRIPTION OF REALTY INDUSTRY

    Volatility is a measure of a security's stability. It is calculated as the standard

    deviation from a certain continuously compounded return over a given period of

    time. It is an important measure in quantifying risk; for example, a security with a

    volatility of 50% is considered very high risk because it has the potential to

    increase or decrease up to half its value.

    Volatility in investing is a stock's ability to change. Stocks with high

    volatility are those that can easily change in price (greatly and quickly), meaning

    that they are easily affected. Securities with lower volatility are more resistant to

    change, and they tend to have a stable course. With great potential for return,

    volatile stock is also accompanied by much risk. Generally, securities that trade

    with volatility often fluctuate greatly over short periods of time, as it takes very

    little to affect the prices of these shares. When the price jumps up and down, short-

    term trading opportunities that allow investors to buy during dips and sell when

    price bounces up arise.

    http://financial-dictionary.thefreedictionary.com/Securityhttp://financial-dictionary.thefreedictionary.com/Continuously+Compoundedhttp://financial-dictionary.thefreedictionary.com/Returnhttp://financial-dictionary.thefreedictionary.com/Returnhttp://financial-dictionary.thefreedictionary.com/Riskhttp://financial-dictionary.thefreedictionary.com/valuehttp://financial-dictionary.thefreedictionary.com/valuehttp://financial-dictionary.thefreedictionary.com/Riskhttp://financial-dictionary.thefreedictionary.com/Returnhttp://financial-dictionary.thefreedictionary.com/Continuously+Compoundedhttp://financial-dictionary.thefreedictionary.com/Security
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    Volatility may influence the type of investments one makes: one may

    directly invest in non-volatile securities, such as a certificate of deposit, but highly

    volatile securities lend themselves more to short selling and other forms of

    hedging. The volatility of a stock relative to the overall market is known as its beta,

    and the volatility triggered by internal factors, regardless of the market, is known

    as a stock's alpha.

    Bombay Stock Exchange abbreviated as BSE is the oldest stock exchange in Asia.

    It is the first stock exchange in India and second stock exchange all over the world

    to obtain an ISO 9001:2000 certifications. There are total of 22 stock exchanges in

    India. Among all the 22 stock exchanges BSE is the first one to be recognized and

    had the authority of getting permanent recognition. It was established in 1875.It is

    the largest stock exchange with over 6000 stocks listed. Bombay Stock Exchange

    Limited is located at Dalal Street, Mumbai, India.

    http://financial-dictionary.thefreedictionary.com/Investmentshttp://financial-dictionary.thefreedictionary.com/Certificate+of+Deposithttp://financial-dictionary.thefreedictionary.com/Short+Sellinghttp://financial-dictionary.thefreedictionary.com/Hedginghttp://financial-dictionary.thefreedictionary.com/Hedginghttp://financial-dictionary.thefreedictionary.com/Short+Sellinghttp://financial-dictionary.thefreedictionary.com/Certificate+of+Deposithttp://financial-dictionary.thefreedictionary.com/Investments
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    1.2 IDENTIFIED PROBLEM

    When the stock markets had touched the 20,000 levels in January 2008, it was the

    realty sector, which led the rally and at that time, almost all the stocks, from all the

    groups, went top gainers every day.

    And then the markets fell and along with the index, the realty stocks fell like nine

    pins. The same realty stocks, which led the index some time ago, were now

    amongst the top losers.

    This rise and fall of the realty stocks, along with the rise and fall of the index made

    it very interesting. We wanted to learn why the realty stocks had so much hold

    over the markets and thus decided to do an in-depth analysis of the frontline listed

    stocks in Indian realty sector and which would help us to understand the volatility

    of the Realty sector and its significant growth which helps to ascertain the future

    trends in the BSE Sensex.

    1.3 NEED FOR THE STUDY

    SENSEX is regarded to be the pulse of the Indian stock market. As the oldest

    index in the country, the SENSEX has over the years become one of the most

    prominent brands in the country.

    The need of the study is to know about the volatile movements of the realty scrips

    included in SENSEX. The study tries to analyze the systematic risk using beta. It

    also attempts to find out the systematic risk, the market return and security returns.

    The study also forecasts the return of the realty scrips and also shows the

    correlation between the SENSEX and Realty scrips

    1.4OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY

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    PRIMARY OBJECTIVE:

    To study the volatility of realty sector top 10 scrips included in SENSEX

    SECONDARY OBJECTIVES:

    To calculate the return on the select scrips for the study period.

    To analyse the risk using beta.

    To forecast the return in the realty scrips.

    To find out the correlation between BSE SENSEXand the select realty scrips.

    1.5 SCOPE OF THE STUDY

    This study helps us to understand the volatility of the Realty sector and its

    significant growth which helps to ascertain the future trends in the BSE Sensex.

    Recently the Reserve Bank of India has reduced the interest rate for housing loans.

    This study is conducted with the price volatility in Real estate sector during the

    period of 14 month.

    A review and assessment of the current condition and future prospects of a given

    sector of the economy. Sector analysis serves to provide an investor with an idea of

    how well a given group of companies are expected to perform as a whole.

    1.6 DELIVERABLES

    This study will help to understand the volatility of the Realty sector and its

    significant growth which helps to ascertain the future trends in the BSE Sensex.

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    .

    CHAPTER 2

    LITERERATURE SURVEY

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    2.1 REVIEW OF LITERATURE

    A review and assessment of the current condition and future prospects of a givensector of the economy. Sector analysis serves to provide an investor with an idea of

    how well a given group of companies are expected to perform as a whole.

    Grewal S.S and NavjotGrewall (1984) revealed some basic investment

    rules and rules for selling shares. They warned the investors not to buy unlisted

    shares, as Stock Exchanges do not permit trading in unlisted shares. Another rulethat they specify is not to buy inactive shares, ie, shares in which transactions take

    place rarely. The main reason why shares are inactive is because there are no

    buyers for them. They are mostly shares of companies, which are not doing well.

    A third rule according to them is not to buy shares in closely-held companies

    because these shares tend to be less active than those of widely held ones since

    they have a fewer number of shareholders. They caution not to hold the shares for

    a long period, expecting a high price, but to sell whenever one earns a reasonable

    reward.

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    Jack Clark Francis (1986) revealed the importance of the rate of return in

    investments and reviewed the possibility of default and bankruptcy risk. He opined

    that in an uncertain world, investors cannot predict exactly what rate of return an

    investment will yield. However he suggested that the investors can formulate a

    probability distribution of the possible rates of return. He also opined that an

    investor who purchases corporate securities must face the possibility of default and

    bankruptcy by the issuer. Financial analysts can foresee bankruptcy. He disclosed

    some easily observable warnings of a firm's failure, which could be noticed by the

    investors to avoid such a risk.

    PreethiSingh(1986) disclosed the basic rules for selecting the company to

    invest in. She opined that understanding and measuring return m d risk is

    fundamental to the investment process. According to her, most investors are 'risk

    averse'. To have a higher return the investor has to face greater risks. She

    concludes that risk is fundamental to the process of investment. Every investor

    should have an understanding of the various pitfalls of investments. The investor

    should carefully analyze the financial statements with special reference to

    solvency, profitability, EPS, and efficiency of the company.

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    David.L.Scott and William Edward (1990) reviewed the important risks

    of owning common stocks and the ways to minimize these risks. They commented

    that the severity of financial risk depends on how heavily a business relies on debt.

    Financial risk is relatively easy to minimize if an investor sticks to the common

    stocks of companies that employ small amounts of debt.

    They suggested that a relatively easy way to ensure some degree of liquidity

    is to restrict investment in stocks having a history of adequate trading volume.

    Investors concerned about business risk can reduce it by selecting common stocks

    of firms that are diversified in several unrelated industries.

    Lewis Mandell (1992) reviewed the nature of market risk, which according

    to him is very much 'global'. He revealed that certain risks that are so global that

    they affect the entire investment market. Even the stocks and bonds of the well-

    managed companies face market risk. He concluded that market risk is influencedby factors that cannot be predicted accurately like economic conditions, political

    events, mass psychological factors, etc. Market risk is the systemic risk that affects

    all securities simultaneously and it cannot be reduced through diversification.

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    Nabhi Kumar Jain (1992) specified certain tips for buying shares for

    holding and also for selling shares. He advised the investors to buy shares of a

    growing company of a growing industry. Buy shares by diversifying in a number

    of growth companies operating in a different but equally fast growing sector of the

    economy. He suggested selling the shares the moment company has or almost

    reached the peak of its growth. Also, sell the shares the moment you realise you

    have made a mistake in the initial selection of the shares. The only option to

    decide when to buy and sell high priced shares is to identify the individual merit or

    demerit of each of the shares in the portfolio and arrive at a decision.

    Carter Randal (1992) offered to investors the underlying principles of

    winning on the stock market. He emphasized on long-term vision and a plan to

    reach the goals. He advised the investors that to be successful, they should never

    be pessimists. He revealed that though there has been a major economic crisis

    almost every year, it remains true that patient investors have consistently made

    money in the equities market. He concluded that investing in the stock market

    should be an un-emotional endeavor and suggested that investors should own a

    stock if they believe it would perform well.

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    L.C. Gupta (1992) revealed the findings of his study that there is existence

    of wild speculation in the Indian stock market. The over speculative character of

    the Indian stock market is reflected in extremely high concentration of the market

    activity in a handful of shares to the neglect of the remaining shares and absolutely

    high trading velocities of the speculative counters.

    He opined that, short- term speculation, if excessive, could lead to "artificial

    price". An artificial price is one which is not justified by prospective earnings,

    dividends, financial strength and assets or which is brought about by speculators

    through rumors, manipulations, etc. He concluded that such artificial prices are

    bound to crash sometime or other as history has repeated and proved.

    Yasaswy N.J. (1993) disclosed how 'turnaround stocks' offer big profits to

    bold investors and also the risks involved in investing in such stocks. Turnaround

    stocks are stocks with extraordinary potential and are relatively under priced at agiven point of time. He also revealed that when the economy is in recession and

    the fundamentals are weak, the stock market, being a barometer of the economy,

    also tends to be depressed. A depressed stock market is an ideal hunting ground

    for 'bargain hunters', who are aggressive investors. Sooner or later recovery takes

    place which may take a very long time. He concluded that the investors' watch

    work is 'caution' as he may lose if the turnaround strategy does not work out as

    anticipated.

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    Sunil Damodaro (1993) evaluated the 'Derivatives' especially the 'futures'

    as a tool for short-term risk control. He opined that derivatives have become an

    indispensable tool for finance managers whose prime objective is to manage or

    reduce the risk inherent in their portfolios.

    Charles Schwab(2000) revealed very practical, authoritative and easy-to-follow

    tips and Suggestions for good investment in the stock market. According to him

    growth is the heart of successful l investment. He suggested that before investing,

    one should be clear about the goal.. He opined that the biggest risk is not in

    investing but in doing nothing and watching inflation eating away the savings.

    Avery useful suggestion of the author is not to draw upon the income

    from investment but to reinvest it. A low risk approach will yield low return. So

    the author urged the investor to be aggressive, subject to his personal limits.

    CRISIL Report on Risk Management (2000) stated that the loss potential frommarket risk will increase in the absence of strong risk management tools. The

    banks which adopt a pro-active approach to upgrading risk management skills

    which are currently unsophisticated as compared to internationally best practices,

    would have a competitive edge in future. The report commented that in the

    increasingly deregulated and competitive environment, the risk management

    strategies of banks would hold the key to differentiation in their credit worthiness.

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    Raghavan R.S.(2000) reviewed the need for a riskmanagement system, which

    should be a daily practice in banks. Heopined that bank management should take

    upon in serious terms, risk

    management systems, which should be a daily practice in theiroperations. He is

    very much sure that the task is of very highmagnitude, the commitment to the

    exercise should be visible, failure

    may be suicidal as we are exposed to market risks at internationallevel, which is

    not under our control as it was in the insulated economytill sometime back.

    Suresh.G.Lalwani and RavindraGersappa (2000)emphasised the need for a

    greater consciousness of the risks attachedto a fixed income securities portfolio, as

    the market in a situation ofcrunch can suddenly turn illiquid. Some concrete steps

    to put in placea mechanism to evaluate and seek to control the market risk would

    benecessary. They opined that the pursuit of profits often leads to adegree of

    recklessness that conveniently disregards the direct

    correlation between risk and profits. They concluded that a riskmanagement

    mechanism could be looked as a tool to instil discipline inany trading activity. It is

    a surveillance tool for constant monitoring ofthe market prices so as to forewarn

    against the unacceptable levels of

    risk on positions maintained.

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    From the review of literature it is obvious that emotions rulethe market, but

    whether emotional buying and selling are influencedby factors like experience in

    the stock market operations remains to beanswered. Though it is generallyaccepted that fund is diverted fromthe stock market to other avenues of investment,

    studies are to beconducted to reveal whether funds are diverted or not and the

    reasonsfor diverting the funds and whether funds are diverted both from

    theprimary market and secondary market etc. The effect of volatility ondiversion

    of funds is also to be enquired into.

    Investors select a particular type of share like growth share,income share etc.

    according to their preferences, but the questionwhether experience in stock market

    operations has any influence on

    the type of share they select is to be explored.

    The review of literature has brought to light that there existswild speculation in

    Indian stock markets. But whether speculationleads to diverting funds from the

    stock market or not raises a bigquestion mark.

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    The review of literature reveals that recently no study hasbeen undertaken in

    Kerala on risk management in investment incorporate securities. Scholars havecontributed much to the theoriesrelated to risks like risk return relationship,

    expected value, risk anduncertainty, attitude towards risk, EVA (Economic Value

    Added) etc.But there is lack of studies on the objectives behind investment

    incorporate securities, the types of shares that the investors like to invest

    in, the precautions they take against risks, how they manage a crisiswhile operating

    in securities market, the gender differences inhandling risks, etc.

    There are theories like the Fundamental analysis, Technicalanalysis etc. to evaluate

    the securities. To what extent these theoriesare applied is another question to be

    resolved.

    Keeping in mind, these unresolved, inadequately explainedand insufficiently

    explored issues, the present study has beenundertaken.

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    CHAPTER 3

    METHODOLOGY

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    3.1TYPE OF PROJECT

    A Study of the analysis of volatility of Realty Sector scrips included in the

    SENSEX.

    Research is basically of two types

    Exploratory Research

    It seeks to discover new relationships. They are drawn from ideas developed in the

    previous research studies are drawn from theory.

    Descriptive Research

    It helps executives to choose among the various course of action. A descriptive

    study attempts to obtain a complete and accurate description of a situation.

    RESEARCH DESIGN:

    Research design Definition as A research design is the arrangement of condition

    for collection and analyses of data in a manner that aims to combine relevant to

    research purpose with economic in procedure.

    The research design followed for this study is Analytical research design.

    This type of research uses information which is already available for analyzing the

    collected data.

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    3.2 TARGET RESPONDENTS

    Since this project used is mainly secondary in nature, as the facts are collectedfrom the already published data. Such as websites, newspaper and company annual

    report.

    3.3ASSUMPTIONS, CONSTRAINTS AND LIMITATIONS

    This study is focused only on Real estate sector companies. Due to time constraints the figure available only for the 14 months. Since the analysis has been constructed on the basis of data available, the

    inherent limitations of index report are the limitations of the analysis.

    The data is limited to the constraints of Sensex market only. The protection made for future is not stable relatively it will change

    accordingly.

    Findings of the study are based on the historical data. Hence the accuracycant be ascertained.

    The Study is restricted to investors based in Chennai.

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    3.4SAMPLING METHODS

    3.4.1 Population Size

    For the study 10 Realty Sector companies have been selected. All the companies

    are the majorplayers in the economy and are part of Sensex.

    3.4.2 Sample Technique

    The current study requires no sampling techniques. All the 10 Realty Sector

    companies in theBombay Stock Exchange Sensex which appear from Jan 2011 to

    June 2012 are selected.

    3.4.3 Sample description

    List of 10 Companies in Sensex from Reality sector

    Code Name Sector

    515055 Anant Raj industries Reality

    533160 DB Reality Reality

    532868 DLF Reality

    532873 HDIL (Housing Development and Infrastructure Ltd ) Reality

    532799 Hub Town Reality

    532832 Indiabulls Real Estate Reality

    533273 Oberoi Reality Reality

    532780 Parsvnath Developers Reality533274 Prestige Estate Projects Reality

    532784 Sobha Developer Reality

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    3.5DATA PROCESSING

    Secondary data:

    Secondary data is information that already exists somewhere, having been

    collected for specific purpose in the study.

    Secondary data can be collected from various books, websites and from

    company brochures. For the purpose of this study, the data used is mainly

    secondary in nature, as the facts are collected from the already published data.

    Such as websites, newspaper and company annual report.

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    3.6TOOLS FOR ANALYSIS

    Financial tools:

    1. Return analysis:

    Security return = This months closing price Last months closing

    price * 100

    Last months closing price

    Market return = This months closing index price Last months

    closing index price * 100

    Last months closing index price

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    2. Beta analysis: = nxy-(x)(y)

    n (x^2)-(y^2)

    3. Alpha analysis: = y x

    4. Co-efficient correlation:

    r = nxy-(x)(y)

    n x2-(yx)2 ny2-(y)2

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    CHAPTER 4

    DATA ANALYSIS AND INTERPRETATION

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    DATA ANALYSIS AND INTERPRETATION

    RETURN ANALYSIS

    CALCULATION OF MARKET AND SECURITY RETURN

    Security Return = Todays PriceYesterdays Price *100

    Yesterdays Price

    Market Return = Todays Index Yesterdays Index *100

    Yesterdays Index

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    4.1.1 RETURNS ON BSE SENSEX VERSUS RETURN ON ANANT RAJ

    INDUSTRIES

    MONTHBSE SENSEX

    ANANTRAJ

    SCRIPX Y

    Rs. Rs. Rs. Rs.

    April -13 17,236.18 47.45 (1.1119) (1.1458)

    March-13 17,429.98 48.00 7.4695 4.2345

    Feb - 13 16,218.53 46.05 (6.3531) (20.6034)

    Jan -13 17,318.81 58.00 (0.4906) (0.8547)

    Dec -12 17,404.20 58.50 (1.9630) (11.0266)

    Nov-12 17,752.68 65.75 3.2520 8.0526

    Oct-12 17,193.55 60.85 11.2497 53.0818

    Sept -12 15,454.92 39.75 (4.1464) (11.8625)

    Aug-12 16,123.46 45.10 (8.9328) (16.4041)

    July-12 17,705.01 53.95 7.6046 (6.7416)

    June12 16,453.76 57.85 (1.3371) (11.1367)

    May12 16,676.75 65.10 (8.3554) (20.2694)

    April -12 18,197.20 81.65 (3.4420) 28.5827

    March12 18,845.87 63.50 1.8515 (7.2993)

    Feb - 12 18,503.28 68.50 (3.3062) (22.3356)Jan -12 19,135.96 88.20 (1.5904) 5.8824

    Dec -11 19,445.22 83.30 9.0994 10.4042

    Nov-11 17,823.40 75.45 (2.7519) (25.0745)

    Oct-11 18,327.76 100.70 (10.6359) (6.1510)

    Sept -11 20,509.09 107.30 5.0603 (3.8961)

    Aug-11 19,521.25 111.65 (2.5513) (14.0162)

    Julyt-11 20,032.34 129.85 (0.1833) (7.5472)

    June11 20,069.12 140.45 11.6743 10.6777

    May11 17,971.12 126.9 0.5755 6.015017,868.29 119.7

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    4.1.1 RETURNS ON BSE SENSEX VERSUS RETURN ON ANANT RAJ SCRIP

    0

    20

    40

    60

    80

    100

    120

    140

    160

    0

    5000

    10000

    15000

    20000

    25000

    MONTH

    13-Apr

    13-Mar

    13-Feb

    13-Jan

    12-Dec

    12-Nov

    12-Oct

    12-Sep

    12-Aug

    12-Jul

    J

    12

    ay

    12

    12-Apr

    12-Mar

    12-Feb

    12-Jan

    11-Dec

    11-Nov

    11-Oct

    11-Sep

    11-Aug

    Julyt-11

    J

    11

    ay

    11

    Series

    Series

    Series

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    Interpretation:

    From the above chart, it is seen that market returns has been highest in

    the month of September 2010, 11.6743 and the lowest return during themonth of January 2011, -10.6359. The security returns has the highest

    returns of 53.0818 during the month of January 2012 and the lowest

    returns of -25.0745 during the month of February 2011.The security

    return has shown an upward movement from December 2011 to

    February 2012

    .

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    4.1.2 RETURNS ON BSE SENSEX VERSUS RETURN ON DB

    REALITY

    MONTH

    BSE

    SENSEXDB Reality X Y

    Rs. Rs. Rs. Rs.

    May-13 17,236.18 78.15 (1.1119) (3.5185)

    Apl-13 17,429.98 81 7.4695 (7.7449)

    Mar-13 16,218.53 87.8 (6.3531) 19.1316

    Feb-13 17,318.81 73.7 (0.4906) (13.4977)

    Jan-13 17,404.20 85.2 (1.9630) 4.7326

    Dec-12 17,752.68 81.35 3.2520 31.2097Nov-12 17,193.55 62 11.2497 25.3792

    Oct-12 15,454.92 49.45 (4.1464) (31.3671)

    Sep-12 16,123.46 72.05 (8.9328) (0.1386)

    Aug-12 17,705.01 72.15 7.6046 45.4637

    July-12 16,453.76 49.6 (1.3371) (17.3333)

    June-12 16,676.75 60 (8.3554) (23.2737)

    May-12 18,197.20 78.2 (3.4420) 11.5549

    Apl-12 18,845.87 70.1 1.8515 (9.0201)

    Mar-12 18,503.28 77.05 (3.3062) (20.6079)Feb-12 19,135.96 97.05 (1.5904) (18.0667)

    Jan-12 19,445.22 118.45 9.0994 8.0255

    Dec-11 17,823.40 109.65 (2.7519) (27.8618)

    Nov-11 18,327.76 152 (10.6359) (22.2904)

    Oct-11 20,509.09 195.6 5.0603 (5.9163)

    Sep-11 19,521.25 207.9 (2.5513) (50.3582)

    Aug-11 20,032.34 418.8 (0.1833) 3.2163

    July-11 20,069.12 405.75 11.6743 (5.4196)

    June-11 17,971.12 429 0.5755 0.9056May-11 17,868.29 425.15

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    4.1.2 RETURNS ON BSE SENSEX VERSUS RETURN ON DB REALITY SCRIP

    0

    5000

    10000

    15000

    20000

    25000

    0

    50

    100

    150

    200

    250

    300

    350

    400

    450

    500

    MO

    NTH

    13-May

    Ap

    l-13

    13-

    Mar

    13-Feb

    13

    -Jan

    12-Dec

    12-Nov

    12

    -Oct

    12-Sep

    12-Aug

    12-Jul

    12

    -Jun

    12-May

    Ap

    l-12

    12-

    Mar

    12-Feb

    12

    -Jan

    11-Dec

    11-Nov

    11

    -Oct

    11-Sep

    11-Aug

    11-Jul

    11

    -Jun

    11-May

    Series2

    Series3

    Series1

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    Interpretation:

    From the above chart, it is seen that market returns has been highest in

    the month of September 2010, 11.6743 and the lowest return during the

    month of January 2011, -10.6359. The security returns has the highest

    returns of 45.4637 during the month of October 2011 and the lowest

    returns of -50.3582 during the month of November 2010.The security

    return has shown an upward movement from August 2011 to October

    2011.

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    4.1.3 RETURNS ON BSE SENSEX VERSUS RETURN ON DLF SCRIPS

    MONTH

    BSE

    SENSEXDLF SCRIP X Y

    Rs. Rs. Rs. Rs.

    May-13 17,236.18 208.30 (1.1119) 4.9899

    Apl-13 17,429.98 198.40 7.4695 7.3593

    Mar-13 16,218.53 184.80 (6.3531) (1.1236)

    Feb-13 17,318.81 186.90 (0.4906) (7.2457)

    Jan-13 17,404.20 201.50 (1.9630) (10.9786)

    Dec-12 17,752.68 226.35 3.2520 4.8402

    Nov-12 17,193.55 215.90 11.2497 17.9459

    Oct-12 15,454.92 183.05 (4.1464) (11.6127)

    Sep-12 16,123.46 207.10 (8.9328) (14.4392)

    Aug-12 17,705.01 242.05 7.6046 10.7020

    Jul-12 16,453.76 218.65 (1.3371) 11.3573

    June-12 16,676.75 196.35 (8.3554) (14.9632)

    May-12 18,197.20 230.90 (3.4420) 9.6652

    Apl-12 18,845.87 210.55 1.8515 (11.7376)

    Mar-12 18,503.28 238.55 (3.3062) 7.0211

    Feb-12 19,135.96 222.90 (1.5904) (16.5793)Jan-12 19,445.22 267.20 9.0994 26.0080

    Dec-11 17,823.40 212.05 (2.7519) (5.2925)

    Nov-11 18,327.76 223.90 (10.6359) (23.3088)

    Oct-11 20,509.09 291.95 5.0603 (4.9797)

    Sep-11 19,521.25 307.25 (2.5513) (12.2394)

    Aug-11 20,032.34 350.10 (0.1833) (7.2091)

    July-11 20,069.12 377.30 11.6743 25.0373

    June-11 17,971.12 301.75 0.5755 0.1494

    May-11 17,868.29 301.30

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    4.1.3 RETURNS ON BSE SENSEX VERSUS RETURN ON DLF SCRIPS

    Interpretation:

    From the above chart, it is seen that market returns has been highest in the month

    of September 2010, 11.6743 and the lowest return during the month of January

    2011,-10.6359. The security returns has the highest returns of 26.0080 during the

    month of March 2011 and the lowest returns of -23.3088 during the month of

    January 2011.The security return has shown an upward movement from January

    2011 to March 2011.

    0

    50

    100

    150

    200

    250

    300

    350

    400

    0.00

    5,000.00

    10,000.00

    15,000.00

    20,000.00

    25,000.00

    BSE SENSEX Rs.

    DLF SCRIP Rs.

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    4.1.4 RETURNS ON BSE SENSEX VERSUS RETURN ON HDIL SCRIP

    MONTHBSE SENSEX HDIL X Y

    Rs. Rs. Rs. Rs.

    May-13 17,236.18 79.20 (1.1119) (8.9132)

    Apl-13 17,429.98 86.95 7.4695 29.0059

    Mar-13 16,218.53 67.40 (6.3531) (16.3772)

    Feb-13 17,318.81 80.60 (0.4906) (5.6758)

    Jan13 17,404.2085.45

    (1.9630) (25.2733)

    Dec-13 17,752.68 114.35 3.2520 43.7461Nov-12 17,193.55 79.55 11.2497 49.2495

    Oct-12 15,454.92 53.30 (4.1464) (12.0462)

    Sep12 16,123.4660.60

    (8.9328) (39.2786)

    Aug-12 17,705.01 99.80 7.6046 1.8367

    Jul-12 16,453.76 98.00 (1.3371) (4.2501)

    Jun-12 16,676.75 102.35 (8.3554) (28.1754)

    May-12 18,197.20 142.50 (3.4420) (10.7702)

    Apl-12 18,845.87 159.70 1.8515 (4.9122)Mar-12 18,503.28 167.95 (3.3062) 4.2844

    Feb-12 19,135.96 161.05 (1.5904) (8.3120)

    Jan-12 19,445.22 175.65 9.0994 11.1709

    Dec-11 17,823.40 158.00 (2.7519) 20.1521

    Nov-11 18,327.76 131.50 (10.6359) (32.3037)

    Oct-11 20,509.09 194.25 5.0603 2.6691

    Sep-11 19,521.25 189.20 (2.5513) (23.4783)

    Aug-11 20,032.34 247.25 (0.1833) (4.5735)

    Jul-11 20,069.12 259.10 11.6743 2.7359Jun-11 17,971.12 252.20 0.5755 (5.2948)

    May-11 17,868.29 266.30

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    4.1.4 .RETURNS ON BSE SENSEX VERSUS RETURN ON HDIL SCRIP

    0

    50

    100

    150

    200

    250

    300

    0

    5000

    10000

    15000

    20000

    25000

    MONTH

    13-May

    Apl-13

    13-Mar

    13-Feb

    Jan-13

    13-Dec

    12-Nov

    12-Oct

    Sep-12

    12-Aug

    12-Jul

    12-Jun

    12-May

    Apl-12

    12-Mar

    12-Feb

    12-Jan

    11-Dec

    11-Nov

    11-Oct

    11-Sep

    11-Aug

    11-Jul

    11-Jun

    11-May

    Series1

    Series3

    Series2

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    Interpretation:

    From the above chart, it is seen that market returns has been highest in

    the month of September 2010, 11.6743 and the lowest return during the

    month of January 2011, -10.6359. The security returns has the highest

    returns of 49.2495 during the month of January 2012 and the lowest

    returns of -39.2786 during the month of November 2011.The security

    return has shown an upward movement from November 2011 to January

    2012.

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    4.1.5 RETURNS ON BSE SENSEX VERSUS RETURN ON

    HUB TOWN

    MONTHBSE SENSEX Hub Town X Y

    Rs. Rs. Rs. Rs.

    May-13 17,236.18 175.80 (1.1119) (2.8729)

    Apl-13 17,429.98 181.00 7.4695 0.0000

    Mar-13 16,218.53 181.00 (6.3531) 0.3882

    Feb-13 17,318.81 180.30 (0.4906) (1.6635)

    Jan-13 17,404.20 183.35 (1.9630) (11.2321)

    Dec-12 17,752.68 206.55 3.2520 (4.4414)Nov-12 17,193.55 216.15 11.2497 20.7205

    Oct-12 15,454.92 179.05 (4.1464) (1.6749)

    Sep-12 16,123.46 182.10 (8.9328) (6.7588)

    Aug-12 17,705.01 195.30 7.6046 2.7895

    Jul-12 16,453.76 190.00 (1.3371) (4.3303)

    Jun-12 16,676.75 198.60 (8.3554) 9.8148

    May-12 18,197.20 180.85 (3.4420) (6.9941)

    Apl-12 18,845.87 194.45 1.8515 (5.1695)

    Mar-12 18,503.28 205.05 (3.3062) (2.7969)Feb-12 19,135.96 210.95 (1.5904) (6.2236)

    Jan-12 19,445.22 224.95 9.0994 8.9874

    Dec-11 17,823.40 206.40 (2.7519) (5.6241)

    Nov-11 18,327.76 218.70 (10.6359) (13.1971)

    Oct-11 20,509.09 251.95 5.0603 (30.0333)

    Sep-11 19,521.25 360.10 (2.5513) (23.9975)

    Aug-11 20,032.34 473.80 (0.1833) (6.6588)

    Jul-11 20,069.12 507.60 11.6743 (2.3095)

    Jun-11 17,971.12 519.60 0.5755 4.5578May-11 17,868.29 496.95

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    4.1.5 RETURNS ON BSE SENSEX VERSUS RETURN ON

    HUB TOWN

    0

    100

    200

    300

    400

    500

    600

    0.00

    5,000.00

    10,000.00

    15,000.00

    20,000.00

    25,000.00

    BSE SENSEX Rs.

    Hub Town Rs.

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    Interpretation:

    From the above chart, it is seen that market returns has been highest in

    the month of September 2010, 11.6743 and the lowest return during the

    month of January 2011, -10.6359. The security returns has the highest

    returns of 20.7205 during the month of January 2012 and the lowest

    returns of -30.0333 during the month of December 2010.The security

    return has shown an upward movement from November 2011 to January

    2012.

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    4.1.6 RETURNS ON BSE SENSEX VERSUS RETURN ON INDIAN

    BULLS

    MONTHBSE SENSEX INDIAN BULLS X Y

    Rs. Rs. Rs. Rs.

    May-13 17,236.18 55.80 (1.1119) (8.7490)

    Apl-13 17,429.98 61.15 7.4695 14.9436

    Mar-13 16,218.53 53.20 (6.3531) (15.6894)

    Feb-13 17,318.81 63.10 (0.4906) (1.0972)

    Jan-13 17,404.20 63.80 (1.9630) (14.3049)Dec-12 17,752.68 74.45 3.2520 4.7854

    Nov-12 17,193.55 71.05 11.2497 51.9786

    Oct-12 15,454.92 46.75 (4.1464) (23.4861)

    Sep-12 16,123.46 61.10 (8.9328) (18.4246)

    Aug-12 17,705.01 74.90 7.6046 2.4624

    Jul-12 16,453.76 73.10 (1.3371) (13.4911)

    Jun-12 16,676.75 84.50 (8.3554) (15.1606)

    May-12 18,197.20 99.60 (3.4420) (11.2695)

    Apl-12 18,845.87 112.25 1.8515 (4.3460)Mar-12 18,503.28 117.35 (3.3062) (6.1200)

    Feb-12 19,135.96 125.00 (1.5904) 0.4419

    Jan-12 19,445.22 124.45 9.0994 19.6635

    Dec-11 17,823.40 104.00 (2.7519) (13.8002)

    Nov-11 18,327.76 120.65 (10.6359) (13.5435)

    Oct-11 20,509.09 139.55 5.0603 (9.1767)

    Sep-11 19,521.25 153.65 (2.5513) (19.8278)

    Aug-11 20,032.34 191.65 (0.1833) 11.9778

    Jul-11 20,069.12 171.15 11.6743 1.9053Jun-11 17,971.12 167.95 0.5755 2.7531

    May-11 17,868.29 163.45

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    4.1.6 RETURNS ON BSE SENSEX VERSUS RETURN ON INDIAN BULLS

    0

    50

    100

    150

    200

    250

    0.00

    5,000.00

    10,000.00

    15,000.00

    20,000.00

    25,000.00

    BSE SENSEX Rs.

    INDIAN BULLS Rs.

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    Interpretation:

    From the above chart, it is seen that market returns has been highest in

    the month of September 2010, 11.6743 and the lowest return during the

    month of January 2011, -10.6359. The security returns has the highest

    returns of 51.9786 during the month of January 2012 and the lowest

    returns of -23.4861 during the month of December 2011.The security

    return has shown an upward movement from a December 2011 to

    January 2012.

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    4.1.7 RETURNS ON BSE SENSEX VERSUS RETURN ON SOBHA

    DEVELOPER

    MONTH

    BSE

    SENSEXSobha Developer X Y

    Rs. Rs. Rs. Rs.

    May-13 17,236.18 348.75 (1.1119) 2.6188

    Apl-13 17,429.98 339.85 7.4695 13.6622

    Mar-13 16,218.53 299 (6.3531) (9.3390)

    Feb-13 17,318.81 329.8 (0.4906) (0.2118)

    Jan-13 17,404.20 330.5 (1.9630) 16.4758

    Dec-12 17,752.68 283.75 3.2520 8.4464

    Nov-12 17,193.55 261.65 11.2497 36.4893

    Oct-12 15,454.92 191.7 (4.1464) (18.4776)

    Sep-12 16,123.46 235.15 (8.9328) (7.2570)

    Aug-12 17,705.01 253.55 7.6046 16.8972

    July-12 16,453.76 216.9 (1.3371) (2.7354)

    Jun-12 16,676.75 223 (8.3554) (14.1482)

    May-12 18,197.20 259.75 (3.4420) 0.3865

    Apl-12 18,845.87 258.75 1.8515 (4.3438)Mar-12 18,503.28 270.5 (3.3062) (5.4526)

    Feb-12 19,135.96 286.1 (1.5904) (2.8523)

    Jan-12 19,445.22 294.5 9.0994 17.8236

    Dec-11 17,823.40 249.95 (2.7519) (4.1786)

    Nov-11 18,327.76 260.85 (10.6359) (19.6396)

    Oct-11 20,509.09 324.6 5.0603 (0.2612)

    Sep-11 19,521.25 325.45 (2.5513) (9.5218)

    Aug-11 20,032.34 359.7 (0.1833) (5.6525)

    Jul-11 20,069.12 381.25 11.6743 15.9519Jun-11 17,971.12 328.8 0.5755 (1.6599)

    May-11 17,868.29 334.35

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    4.1.6.RETURNS ON BSE SENSEX VERSUS RETURN ON SOBHA DEVELOPER SCRIP

    0

    50

    100

    150

    200

    250

    300

    350

    400

    450

    0.00

    5,000.00

    10,000.00

    15,000.00

    20,000.00

    25,000.00

    BSE SENSEX Rs.

    Sobha Developer Rs

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    Interpretation:

    From the above chart, it is seen that market returns has been highest in

    the month of September 2010, 11.6743 and the lowest return during the

    month of January 2011, -10.6359. The security returns has the highest

    returns of 36.4893 during the month of January 2012 and the lowest

    returns of -19.6396 during the month of January 2011.The security

    return has shown an upward movement from December 2011 to January

    2012.

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    4.1.8 RETURNS ON BSE SENSEX VERSUS RETURN ON PARSVANT

    DEVELOPERS

    MONT

    H

    BSE

    SENSEXParsvant X Y

    Rs. Rs. Rs. Rs.

    May-13 17,236.18 39.05 (1.1119) (36.4524)

    Apl-13 17,429.98 61.45 7.4695 15.1828

    Mar-13 16,218.53 53.35 (6.3531) (6.0739)

    Feb-13 17,318.81 56.8 (0.4906) 0.4421

    Jan-13 17,404.20 56.55 (1.9630) (4.6374)

    Dec-12 17,752.68 59.3 3.2520 0.4234Nov-12 17,193.55 59.05 11.2497 35.2806

    Oct-12 15,454.92 43.65 (4.1464) 20.0825

    Sep-12 16,123.46 36.35 (8.9328) (54.5625)

    Aug-12 17,705.01 80 7.6046 23.4568

    July-12 16,453.76 64.8 (1.3371) 29.6000

    Jun-12 16,676.75 50 (8.3554) 7.4114

    May-12 18,197.20 46.55 (3.4420) (1.8967)

    Apl-12 18,845.87 47.45 1.8515 12.5741

    Mar-12 18,503.28 42.15 (3.3062) (3.2147)Feb-12 19,135.96 43.55 (1.5904) (4.4956)

    Jan-12 19,445.22 45.6 9.0994 54.5763

    Dec-11 17,823.40 29.5 (2.7519) (37.0331)

    Nov-11 18,327.76 46.85 (10.6359) (19.1544)

    Oct-11 20,509.09 57.95 5.0603 (0.6855)

    Sep-11 19,521.25 58.35 (2.5513) (12.2556)

    Aug-11 20,032.34 66.5 (0.1833) (9.4005)

    Jul-11 20,069.12 73.4 11.6743 8.3715

    Jun-11 17,971.12 67.73 0.5755 4.2000May-11 17,868.29 65.00

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    4.1.8 .RETURNS ON BSE SENSEX VERSUS RETURN ON PARSVANT SCRIP

    0

    10

    20

    30

    40

    50

    60

    70

    80

    90

    0.00

    5,000.00

    10,000.00

    15,000.00

    20,000.00

    25,000.00

    BSE SENSEX Rs.

    Parsvant Rs.

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    Interpretation:

    From the above chart, it is seen that market returns has been highest in the month of September 2010,

    11.6743 and the lowest return during the month of January 2011, -10.6359. The security returns has

    the highest returns of 54.5763 during the month of March 2011 and the lowest returns of -54.5625

    during the month of November 2011.The security return has shown an upward movement from

    February 2011 to March 2011.

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    4.1.9 RETURNS ON BSE SENSEX VERSUS RETURN ON PRESTIGE

    ESTATE

    MONTH BSE SENSEX PrestigeEstate X Y

    Rs. Rs. Rs. Rs.

    May-13 17,236.18 111.85 (1.1119) (4.4017)

    Apl-13 17,429.98 117.00 7.4695 1.4304

    Mar-13 16,218.53 115.35 (6.3531) 4.6733

    Feb-13 17,318.81 110.20 (0.4906) 10.3655

    Jan-13 17,404.20 99.85 (1.9630) (3.9904)

    Dec-12 17,752.68 104.00 3.2520 36.9322

    Nov-12 17,193.55 75.95 11.2497 7.3498

    Oct-12 15,454.92 70.75 (4.1464) (12.6004)

    Sep-12 16,123.46 80.95 (8.9328) (18.3560)

    Aug-12 17,705.01 99.15 7.6046 8.1833

    Jul-12 16,453.76 91.65 (1.3371) (6.9543)

    Jun-12 16,676.75 98.50 (8.3554) (24.9524)

    May-12 18,197.20 131.25 (3.4420) 8.9664

    Apl-12 18,845.87 120.45 1.8515 (19.0524)

    Mar-12 18,503.28 148.80 (3.3062) 2.1978

    Feb-12 19,135.96 145.60 (1.5904) 16.4800

    Jan-12 19,445.22 125.00 9.0994 7.5731Dec-11 17,823.40 116.20 (2.7519) (22.2222)

    Nov-11 18,327.76 149.40 (10.6359) (12.2982)

    Oct-11 20,509.09 170.35 5.0603 1.1279

    Sep-11 19,521.25 168.45 (2.5513) (15.0530)

    Aug-11 20,032.34 198.30 (0.1833) 9.9529

    July-11 20,069.12 180.35 11.6743 3.9781

    Jun-11 17,971.12 173.45 0.5755 (3.3435)

    May-11 17,868.29 179.45

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    4.1.9.RETURNS ON BSE SENSEX VERSUS RETURN ON PRESTIGE ESTATE SCRIP

    Interpretation:

    From the above chart, it is seen that market returns has been highest in the month of

    September 2010, 11.6743 and the lowest return during the month of January 2011, -

    10.6359. The security returns has the highest returns of 36.9322 during the month of

    February 2012 and the lowest returns of -24.9524 during the month of August

    2011.The security return has shown an upward movement from December 2011 to

    February 2012.

    0

    50

    100

    150

    200

    250

    0.00

    5,000.00

    10,000.00

    15,000.00

    20,000.00

    25,000.00

    BSE SENSEX Rs.

    Prestige Estate Rs.

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    4.1.10 RETURNS ON BSE SENSEX VERSUS RETURN ON OBEROI

    REALITY

    MONTHBSE SENSEX

    Oberoi

    RealityX Y

    Rs. Rs. Rs. Rs.

    May-13 17,236.18 230.55 (1.1119) (5.0257)

    Apl-13 17,429.98 242.75 7.4695 (5.6365)

    Mar-13 16,218.53 257.25 (6.3531) (4.7751)

    Feb-13 17,318.81 270.15 (0.4906) 0.5958

    Jan-13 17,404.20 268.55 (1.9630) (5.4068)

    Dec-12 17,752.68 283.90 3.2520 13.2881

    Nov-12 17,193.55 250.60 11.2497 20.1918Oct-12 15,454.92 208.50 (4.1464) (5.2703)

    Sep-12 16,123.46 220.10 (8.9328) (5.6984)

    Aug-12 17,705.01 233.40 7.6046 1.7215

    July-12 16,453.76 229.45 (1.3371) 1.9778

    Jun-12 16,676.75 225.00 (8.3554) (4.6206)

    May-12 18,197.20 235.90 (3.4420) (1.7902)

    Apl-12 18,845.87 240.20 1.8515 6.7556

    Mar-12 18,503.28 225.00 (3.3062) (11.0848)

    Feb-12 19,135.96 253.05 (1.5904) 0.4964Jan-12 19,445.22 251.80 9.0994 15.3723

    Dec-11 17,823.40 218.25 (2.7519) (11.2083)

    Nov-11 18,327.76 245.80 (10.6359) (4.1155)

    Oct-11 20,509.09 256.35 5.0603 (4.7203)

    Sep-11 19,521.25 269.05 (2.5513) (2.9226)

    Aug-11 20,032.34 277.15 (0.1833) 5.2402

    July-11 20,069.12 263.35 11.6743 (1.3855)

    June-11 17,971.12 267.05 0.5755 2.2592

    May-11 17,868.29 261.15

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    4.1.10 RETURNS ON BSE SENSEX VERSUS RETURN ON OBEROI REALITY

    0

    50

    100

    150

    200

    250

    300

    0.00

    5,000.00

    10,000.00

    15,000.00

    20,000.00

    25,000.00

    BSE SENSEX Rs.

    Oberoi Reality Rs.

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    Interpretation:

    From the above chart, it is seen that market returns has been highest in the

    month of September 2010, 11.6743 and the lowest return during the monthof January 2011, -10.6359. The security returns has the highest returns of

    20.1918 during the month of January 2012 and the lowest returns of -

    11.2083 during the month of February 2011.The security return has shown

    an upward movement from November 2011 to January 2012.

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    CALCULATION OF BETA

    STANDARD INTERPRETATION:

    Beta is the slope of the characteristics regression line. Beta describes the relationship

    between the stocks return and the index returns.

    1) If Beta = +1.0One per cent change in Market index causes exactly one per cent change in the stock

    return. It indicates that the stock moves in tandem with the market.

    2) If Beta = + 0.5One per cent changes in Market index causes 0.5 per cent change in the stock return.

    The stock is volatile compared to the market.

    3) If Beta = + 2.0One per cent change in Market index causes two per cent change in the stock return.

    The stock return is more volatile. The stock with more than one Beta value is

    considered to be risky.

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    4)Negative Beta value indicates that the stock return moves in the oppositedirection to the market return. The stock with the negative Beta of -1

    would provide a return of 10%. if the market return declines by 10% vice versa.

    BETA FORMULA = nxy-(x)(y)

    ________________________________

    n (x^2)-(y^2)

    CALCULATION OF ALPHA

    The intercept of the characteristic regression line is Alpha. i.e the distance

    between the intersection and the horizontal axis. It indicates that the stock return

    is independent of the market return;positive value of alpha is a healthy sign.

    Positive alpha value would yield profitable return.

    Formula = y x

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    CALCULATION OF CORRELATION

    It measures the nature and the extent of relationship between the stock market return

    and the stock return in a particular period.

    nxy-(x) ( y)r =

    nx^2 (x)2 ny^2 (y)2

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    4.1.11 TABLE SHOWING ALPHA,BETA & CORRELATION OF

    REALTY SECTOR SCRIPS

    COMPANY

    NAMEALPHA BETA CORRELATION

    Anant Raj industies -2.52 1.69 0.60

    DB Reality -4.49 1.58 0.45

    DLF -0.74 1.63 0.76

    HDIL -2.77 2.61 0.73

    Hub Town -3.71 0.48 0.29

    Indiabulls RealEstate

    -3.29 1.98 0.75

    Sobha Developer 0.91 1.80 0.84

    Parsvnath

    Developers0.84 2.38 0.62

    Prestige EstateProjects

    -1.03 1.08 0.47

    Oberoi Reality -0.26 0.73 0.58

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    INTERPRETATION

    1. From the table it is inferred that the alpha value for Sobha Developer andPrasvnathis positive, thus the above stocks shows a healthy sign and these

    stocks will yield a profitable return. The Alpha value for Anant Raj

    Industries, DB Reality,DLF, HDIL, Hub Town, India bulls, Prestige

    Estate ProjectsandOberoi realty is negative which means that these stocks

    will not yield a profitable value.

    2. The Beta should fall between 0 and 1 for the risk less investment. Here fromthe above table, it is clear that the Hub Town and Oberoi Realty is having

    Beta less than one which indicates lessrisky investment.From the table it is

    inferred that the beta value for Anant Raj Industries, DLF, HDIL, India

    bulls, Parsvnath, DB realty, Sobha developer and Prestige estate is more

    than 1, thus the above stocks are considered to be very risky

    3. The correlation coefficient measures the nature and the extend of relationshipbetween the market return and the stock return for the study period. From the

    above table it is inferred that the coefficient of determination is above 60

    percentage which shows the variation of the security return with the market

    return for 8 out of 10 Realty scrips.

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    CHAPTER 5

    CONCLUSIONS

    5.1 SUMMARY OF FINDINGS

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    DLF:The market returns has been highest in the month of September2010, 11.6743 and the lowest return during the month of January 2011, -

    10.6359. The security returns has the highest returns of 26.0080 during the

    month of March 2011 and the lowest returns of -23.3088 during the month

    of January 2011. It has a Alpha of -0.74, Beta of 1.63 and correlation of

    coefficient of .76. Since the Alpha is negative the stocks will not yield

    profitable value. Beta of 1.63 is greater than the market return and it is

    proved that company has a high volatility compared to the market return.

    HDIL :The market returns has been highest in the month of September2010, 11.6743 and the lowest return during the month of January 2011, -

    10.6359. The security returns has the highest returns of 49.2495 during the

    month of January 2012 and the lowest returns of -39.2786 during the

    month of November 2011. It has a Alpha of -2.77, Beta of 2.61 and

    correlation of coefficient of .73. Since the Alpha is negative the stocks will

    not yield profitable value. Beta of 2.61 is greater than the market return

    and it is proved that company has a high volatility compared to the market

    return.

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    HUB TOWN:The market returns has been highest in the month ofSeptember 2010, 11.6743 and the lowest return during the month of

    January 2011, -10.6359. The security returns has the highest returns of

    20.7205 during the month of January 2012 and the lowest returns of -

    30.0333 during the month of December 2010.The security return has

    shown an upward movement from November 2011 to January 2012. It has

    a Alpha of -3.71, Beta of 0.48 and correlation of coefficient of .29. Since

    the Alpha is negative the stocks will not yield profitable value. Beta of

    0.48 is lesser than the market return and it is proved that company is

    lessvolatility compared to the market return.

    INDIA BULLS:The market returns has been highest in the month ofSeptember 2010, 11.6743 and the lowest return during the month of

    January 2011, -10.6359. The security returns has the highest returns of

    51.9786 during the month of January 2012 and the lowest returns of -

    23.4861 during the month of December 2011. It has a Alpha of -3.29, Beta

    of 1.98 and correlation of coefficient of 0.75. Since the Alpha is negative

    the stocks will not yield profitable value. Beta of 1.98 is greater than the

    market return and it is proved that company has high volatility compared

    to the market return.

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    PRESTIGE ESTATE:The market returns has been highest in the monthof September 2010, 11.6743 and the lowest return during the month of

    January 2011, -10.6359. The security returns has the highest returns of

    36.9322 during the month of February 2012 and the lowest returns of -

    24.9524 during the month of August 2011. It has a Alpha of-1.03, Beta of

    1.08 and correlation of coefficient of 0.47. Since the Alpha is negative the

    stocks will not yield profitable value. Beta of 1.08 is greater than the

    market return and it is proved that company has high volatility compared

    to the market return.

    OBEROI REALTY:The market returns has been highest in the month ofSeptember 2010, 11.6743 and the lowest return during the month of

    January 2011, -10.6359. The security returns has the highest returns of

    20.1918 during the month of January 2012 and the lowest returns of -

    11.2083 during the month of February 2011. It has a Alpha of-.26 , Beta of

    0.73 and correlation of coefficient of 0.58. Since the Alpha is negative the

    stocks will not yield profitable value. Beta of 0.73 is lesser than the market

    return and it is proved that company has less volatility compared to the

    market return.

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    In short, the following hypothesis have been tested and proved, that the foreign

    market creates a great impact in the Indian stock market. Thus the investors are

    advised to read the market conditions and the economic conditions before they

    invest in the market. They are also advised to check the Real estate sectors before

    they invest in the market.

    In the analysis and data interpretation part we have seen that price movements ofthe

    stock over a time frame. From this we find that stock market price alwaysfluctuate

    because of many influencing factors like political, economic,corporate news etc.

    over a short term.

    Over a short term stock market will always remain volatile; it is Investmentthebetteroption against Trading. One can find Investing over a long periodyields

    good return in stock market, rather than trading for short-term capitalgain. Trading

    may leads to capital loss. So invest wisely. Hope my projectguides investors in a

    proper way in stock market.

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    APPENDIX

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    STOCK MARKET GENERATED DATA FOR THE PERIOD:

    JULY 2010 TO JULY 2012 - DB REALTY

    MONTH OPEN PRICE HIGH PRICE LOW PRICE CLOSE PRICE

    May-13 82.95 85.25 75 78.15

    Apl-13 88 93.2 79.2 81

    Mar-13 74.45 93.2 65.55 87.8

    Feb-13 86.3 91.45 72.65 73.7

    Jan-13 82.4 99.3 69.6 85.2

    Dec-12 62.15 102.5 57.2 81.35

    Nov-12 50.85 66.75 48.8 62Oct-12 74 74.85 45.05 49.45

    Sep-12 70.8 81 52.05 72.05

    Aug-12 50.6 74.2 47.5 72.15

    Jul-12 59.9 65 49.4 49.6

    Jun-12 79.75 79.9 59.65 60

    May-12 71 89.8 68.7 78.2

    Apl-12 77 83.6 66.1 70.1

    Mar-12 97.45 98.4 66 77.05

    Feb-12 119.2 122.25 94.6 97.05Jan-12 110.6 130 81.4 118.45

    Dec-11 156 159.5 103.25 109.65

    Nov-11 198.4 207.2 143.5 152

    Oct-11 210 251.5 184 195.6

    Sep-11 430 439.2 190.55 207.9

    Aug-11 410.4 457 406.5 418.8

    Jul-11 434.95 474.9 402.5 405.75

    Jun-11 429.9 471.5 383 429

    May-11 383 430 355 425.15

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    STOCK MARKET GENERATED DATA FOR THE PERIOD:

    JULY 2010 TO JULY 2012 - HDIL

    MONTH OPEN PRICE HIGH PRICE LOW PRICE CLOSE PRICE

    May-13 87.75 93.05 71 79.

    Apl-13 67.2 87.8 61.5 86.9

    Mar-13 81.9 84.25 59.6 67.

    Feb-13 85.5 93.3 77.5 80.

    Jan-13 113 117.4 80.55 85.4

    Dec-12 79.5 135.4 77.15 114.3

    Nov-12 53.75 84.1 52.1 79.5

    Oct-12 62.9 67 52.3 53.Sep-12 99.5 103.35 60.05 60.

    Aug-12 97 102 89.2 99.

    Jul-12 101.55 114.7 96.45 9

    Jun-12 147.9 147.9 95 102.3

    May-12 160.9 175.45 140.7 142.

    Apl-12 168 180.65 148.05 159.

    Mar-12 162 168.9 135.05 167.9

    Feb-12 176.85 198.9 158.5 161.0

    Jan-12 159.05 178.6 150.65 175.6

    Dec-11 131.75 162.9 122.5 15

    Nov-11 196 197.7 129 131.

    Oct-11 188.95 217 177.1 194.2

    Sep-11 250 268 160.1 189.

    Aug-11 262.65 290.95 244.1 247.2

    Jul-11 253.5 284.9 250.6 259.

    Jun-11 271 299.6 248.8 252.

    May-11 247.5 282 237 266.

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    STOCK MARKET GENERATED DATA FOR THE PERIOD:JULY 2010 TO JULY 2012 - HUB TOWN

    MONTHOPENPRICE

    HIGH PRICELOW

    PRICECLOSEPRICE

    May-13 180 182.8 167 175.8

    Apl-13 188.4 188.8 175.1 181

    Mar-13 179.85 192.9 173.05 181

    Feb-13 182 196 173.15 180.3

    Jan-13 206 215 173.85 183.35

    Dec-12 218.9 240 185.7 206.55Nov-12 185.5 218 177 216.15

    Oct-12 183 187.8 166.05 179.05

    Sep-12 192.15 204.4 174.3 182.1

    Aug-12 184 206.35 181 195.3

    Jul-12 200 204.9 182 190

    Jun-12 181.5 199.9 168 198.6

    May-12 197.85 205.9 180.15 180.85

    Apl-12 205 217.45 186.05 194.45

    Mar-12 212 216.7 194.1 205.05Feb-12 225 259 210.15 210.95

    Jan-12 205.25 241 192.1 224.95

    Dec-11 222 248 183.05 206.4

    Nov-11 252 254.85 211 218.7

    Oct-11 360 398.9 247 251.95

    Sep-11 483.65 504 334 360.1

    Aug-11 510 520 467.2 473.8

    Jul-11 518 547 489 507.6

    Jun-11 504.1 554.8 500 519.6May-11 475.1 535 468.1 496.95

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    STOCK MARKET GENERATED DATA FOR THE PERIOD:JULY 2010 TO JULY 2012 - INDIAN BULLS

    MONTH OPEN PRICE HIGH PRICE LOW PRICECLOSEPRICE

    May -13 61.80 65.75 52.70 55.80

    Apl-13 53.25 61.55 49.50 61.15

    Mar-13 63.00 63.80 48.35 53.20

    Feb-13 63.90 68.55 59.20 63.10

    Jan-13 75.00 76.10 58.70 63.80

    Dec-12 71.00 83.90 66.95 74.45Nov-12 47.20 72.85 45.50 71.05

    Oct-12 64.00 66.85 40.10 46.75

    Sep-12 73.05 79.05 59.25 61.10

    Aug-12 72.00 77.80 66.80 74.90

    Jul-12 84.00 91.75 71.55 73.10

    Jun-12 101.00 102.50 70.75 84.50

    May-12 113.50 125.00 98.80 99.60

    Apl-12 118.00 120.40 97.80 112.25

    Mar-12 130.00 130.00 105.00 117.35Feb-12 124.05 152.75 123.10 125.00

    Jan-12 104.95 126.50 100.20 124.45

    Dec-11 121.60 123.70 99.25 104.00

    Nov-11 139.00 140.55 114.80 120.65

    Oct-11 153.00 162.70 122.00 139.55

    Sep-11 199.90 218.50 118.15 153.65

    Aug-11 173.00 215.00 172.50 191.65

    Jul-11 169.50 187.05 169.00 171.15

    Jun-11 165.20 200.80 164.60 167.95May-11 156.25 174.50 153.00 163.45

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    STOCK MARKET GENERATED DATA FOR THE PERIOD:

    JULY 2010 TO JULY 2012 - SOBHA DEVELOPER

    MONTHOPEN

    PRICEHIGH PRICE

    LOW

    PRICECLOSE PRICE

    May-13 340 359 325.6 348.75

    Apl-13 298 356.75 285.6 339.85

    Mar-13 332.7 333 282.45 299

    Feb-13 331.05 366.8 304.25 329.8

    Jan-13 280 334.4 264.05 330.5Dec-12 258.5 306 252.55 283.75

    Nov-12 192 266.95 189 261.65

    Oct-12 242.8 246 185.25 191.7

    Sep-12 253.5 256.7 202.4 235.15

    Aug-12 214.7 258.95 201.05 253.55

    Jul-12 225.75 237.75 212 216.9

    Jun-12 262.75 268.55 207.1 223

    May-12 261.35 294.3 245.35 259.75

    Apl-12 282.65 282.7 226 258.75

    Mar-12 285 295.4 240.1 270.5

    Feb-12 296 327 281.05 286.1

    Jan-12 252 303.15 250 294.5

    Dec-11 261 271 185 249.95

    Nov-11 327.85 329.7 252 260.85

    Oct-11 325 339.85 306 324.6

    Sep-11 370.5 378 288.5 325.45

    Aug-11 383.6 403.9 346.55 359.7

    Jul-11 333.7 401.7 332.05 381.25

    Jun-11 333.8 394 320.6 328.8

    May-11 285.4 355 283.8 334.35

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    STOCK MARKET GENERATED DATA FOR THE PERIOD: JULY

    2010 TO JULY 2012 - PARSVNATH DEVELOPERS

    MONTH OPEN PRICEHIGHPRICE

    LOW PRICECLOSEPRICE

    May-13 61.5 61.8 35.55 39.05

    Apl-13 54.95 62.45 52.25 61.45

    Mar-13 57.9 57.9 52.1 53.35

    Feb-13 57.55 61 51.15 56.8Jan-13 59.4 62.25 55.6 56.55

    Dec-12 59.4 64.45 58.5 59.3

    Nov-12 43.4 61.25 41.85 59.05

    Oct-12 36.8 45.45 36.3 43.65

    Sep-12 80 81.95 32.45 36.35

    Aug-12 64.15 82.25 62.55 80

    Jul-12 49.55 69 49.55 64.8

    Jun-12 46.25 50.45 43 50

    May-12 47.15 49.75 45.55 46.55Apl-12 42.25 47.5 40.25 47.45

    Mar-12 43.35 44.4 39.9 42.15

    Feb-12 45.1 48.4 43 43.55

    Jan-12 30 50.05 28 45.6

    Dec-11 47.75 47.75 25.1 29.5

    Nov-11 58.2 61.5 46 46.85

    Oct-11 50 62.5 45 57.95

    Sep-11 67 71.85 46.55 58.35

    Aug-11 73.38 74.73 65.95 66.5Jul-11 68.93 74.73 67.9 73.4

    Jun-11 65.75 71.98 64.75 67.73

    May-11 61.75 68.8 60.7 65

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    STOCK MARKET GENERATED DATA FOR THE PERIOD: JULY

    2010 TO JULY 2012 - OBEROI REALTY

    MONTH OPEN PRICEHIGH

    PRICELOW PRICE CLOSE PRICE

    May-13 244.5 247 226 230.55Apl-13 258.1 271.8 236.2 242.75

    Mar-13 271.95 271.95 228 257.25

    Feb-13 270 284.5 263 270.15

    Jan-13 279.85 286 250 268.55

    Dec-12 241 322.9 241 283.9

    Nov-12 213 263.4 205.05 250.6

    Oct-12 223 234.95 205.1 208.5

    Sep-12 233 235 214.05 220.1

    Aug-12 234.75 244.85 221 233.4

    Jul-12 232.95 232.95 212.25 229.45

    Jun-12 240 242 210 225

    May-12 240.5 247.9 230.35 235.9

    Apl-12 225.15 257.25 220 240.2

    Mar-12 250.2 259.9 216.05 225

    Feb-12 250 273 246 253.05

    Jan-12 219 254.9 210 251.8

    Dec-11 245.4 267.05 212.05 218.25

    Nov-11 259.9 263 240.15 245.8

    Oct-11 268 278.5 240 256.35Sep-11 281.4 294.5 240 269.05

    Aug-11 280 306.6 269.8 277.15

    Jul-11 245.4 267.05 243.76 263.35

    Jun-11 259.9 263 253.15 267.05

    May-11 268 278.5 253 261.15

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    REFERENCES

    REFERENCES

    1.Punithavathipandian - Security Analysis and PortfolioManagementVikas Publishing House Pvt. Ltd. 2001

    2.C.R Kothari- Research Methodology Wishvaprakashan, NewDelhi 2002.

    WEBLIOGRAPHY

    1.www.bseindia.com2.www.moneycontrol.com3.www.sharekhan.com4.Business line5.Economic times.

    http://www.bseindia.com/http://www.bseindia.com/http://www.moneycontrol.com/http://www.moneycontrol.com/http://www.sharekhan.com/http://www.sharekhan.com/http://www.sharekhan.com/http://www.moneycontrol.com/http://www.bseindia.com/
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