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2013 Unsustainability and Transition

A Presentation by John Mauldin

Author of ENDGAME and Editor of

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Unsustainability

If something cannot be sustained, it will change.

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What is Unsustainable?

A world in which expenses rise

faster than income

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It’s the End of the World As We Know It, and I Feel Fine

No, Better Than Fine—

I Am Excited!

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Debt

The End of the Developed World Debt Supercycle

1

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Unbalanced Entitlement Promises,

Primarily Pension and Health Care

(Think Demographics!)

2

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The World and Especially Progress is

NOT Linear

What is NOT Unsustainable Food, Energy, Technological Change, Human

Adaptation and

Most Importantly Growth

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Where are the

Current Sources of Unsustainability?

1. Japan

2. Europe

3. The US

4. Maybe China

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Japan: A Bug In Search of a Windshield

Ja

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SOURCE: Bank of International Settlements

Public Debt/GDP Projections

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France is the New Greece

SOURCE: Bank of International Settlements

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A Thought About Austerity

Of Course it Doesn’t “Work”

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One Bubble to Rule Them All

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Keynes VS

von Mises VS

Fisher VS

Friedman

The Great Experiment

http://images.google.com/imgres?imgurl=http://www.geocities.com/CapitolHill/4941/keynes.jpg&imgrefurl=http://www.geocities.com/CapitolHill/4941/chkey.html&usg=__UqSa26WbD-gNg38zltDSy8wuZ_w=&h=555&w=435&sz=51&hl=en&start=3&sig2=gV4BK-4Rk2U52J_ds6P2uA&um=1&tbnid=L5Mqi4b0jK4OQM:&tbnh=133&tbnw=104&prev=/images?q=keynes&hl=en&rls=com.microsoft:*:IE-SearchBox&rlz=1I7GPTB_enUS288&sa=N&um=1&ei=na3WSYuVD4nNlQeykN3BDA

http://images.google.com/imgres?imgurl=http://www.nndb.com/people/235/000115887/irving-fisher-2.jpg&imgrefurl=http://www.nndb.com/people/235/000115887/&usg=__HHl9lUMpku3Rx7akgaXbvTgBMwI=&h=254&w=178&sz=16&hl=en&start=3&sig2=aBHZmsywTOcWfg4xSKIeng&um=1&tbnid=u4Nz9vneJAQUrM:&tbnh=111&tbnw=78&prev=/images?q=irving+fisher&hl=en&rls=com.microsoft:*:IE-SearchBox&rlz=1I7GPTB_enUS288&um=1&ei=KK7WScTNLN7VlQe-9aTeDA

http://images.google.com/imgres?imgurl=http://thecrosspollinator.files.wordpress.com/2008/11/milton-friedman-greyscale.jpg&imgrefurl=http://thecrosspollinator.wordpress.com/2008/11/14/milton-friedman-vs-buddha/&usg=__wTP6HPeacxtVlGBNp1TG44vU0Qg=&h=1165&w=802&sz=91&hl=en&start=3&sig2=BQJaZVS95Q4DcwQrMYi7wA&um=1&tbnid=5PoEimCpW23atM:&tbnh=150&tbnw=103&prev=/images?q=friedman&hl=en&rls=com.microsoft:*:IE-SearchBox&rlz=1I7GPTB_enUS288&um=1&ei=R67WSdW5FoOFlAeV88TYDA

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Enter the New Economic Paradigm The World of Schumpeter and Minsky

Stability, Instability and Creative Destruction

Joseph Schumpeter

and Hyman Minsky

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The Millennium Wave: A World of Accelerating Change and Abundance

4

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2013

The Transition to Sustainability

Investment Theme:

Avoid What is Negatively Affected

by the Unsustainable and

Choose What Is Sustainable

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What is The Characteristics

of Sustainable? 1. It Serves Basic Human Needs

-Food, Clothing, Housing, Social Networks!?!?

2. It is Adaptable and Antifragile

-Technology, Communications

3. It Creates Ever Increasing Abundance at Lower Costs

- Biotechnology, Robotics, Nanotechnology, Etc.

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