Download - Maryland's Missing Students

Maryland’s Missing StudentsMapping the Demographics of High School Dropout Rates and Attendance Rates for the School Year ‘07–‘08A Study by Bill Fearrington and Louis Umerlikfor CCBC’s GEOA 250 Advanced Geospatial ApplicationsMay 2009

Table of ContentsProposal & Scope of Work

Introduction ......................................................................1Proposal & Scope of Work ................................................2 Purpose ..........................................................................2 Educational Institutional Profile ....................................2 Definition of Terms .......................................................3 Project Goals .................................................................4 Project Tasks ..................................................................4 Methodology .................................................................5 Assumptions ..................................................................5 Project Receivables .........................................................5 Project Deliverables .......................................................5 Quality Assurance/Quality Control ...............................5

Maps

Introduction to Maps ........................................................6State of Maryland Maps Introduction to State of Maryland Maps ........................7 Dropout Rates ...............................................................8 Attendance Rates ...........................................................9 Students More Than 20 Days Absent ...........................10State of Maryland Maps by Median Household Income Dropout Rates .............................................................11 Attendance Rates .........................................................12 Students More Than 20 Days Absent ...........................13 Dropout Rates by IDW Raster Image ..........................14

Attendance Rates by IDW Raster Image............................15State of Maryland Maps by Ethnicity Dropout Rates by Caucasian Population .......................16 Attendance Rates by Caucasian Population .....................17 Dropout Rates by African-American Population ............18 Attendance Rates by African-American Population ..........19 Dropout Rates by Asian-American Population ...............20 Attendance Rates by Asian-American Population ............21 Dropout Rates by Hispanic Population .........................22 Attendance Rates by Hispanic Population .......................23County Focus Maps Introduction to County Focus Maps ............................24 Dropout Rates, Attendance Rates & Students More Than 20 Days Absent by School District ..........25County Focus Maps by Median Household Income Dropout Rates, Attendance Rates & Students More Than 20 Days Absent by School District ..........26County Focus Maps by Ethnicity Caucasian Population ...................................................27 African-American Population.......................................29 Asian-American Population .........................................31 Hispanic Population ....................................................33County Comparison Maps Introduction to County Focus Maps ............................35 Dropout Rates, Attendance Rates & Students More Than 20 Days Absent by School District ..........36County Comparison Maps by Median Household Income Dropout Rates, Attendance Rates & Students More Than 20 Days Absent by School District ..........38

County Comparison Maps—Ethnicity Caucasian Population ...................................................40 African-American Population.......................................42 Asian-American Population .........................................44

Hispanic Population ....................................................46

Analysis

Final Analysis ..................................................................48Recommendations ...........................................................49

For more...

Notes ..............................................................................50For Further Information ..................................................50Contact Information .......................................................50

Appendix

Appendix I ......................................................................51Appendix II .....................................................................51Appendix III....................................................................51Appendix IV....................................................................52

© 2009 by Bill Fearrington & Louis Umerlik for the Community Colleges of Baltimore County

1

Introduction

Before a student drops out of high school, most of them begin missing class first. A study by the

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation found that “59 to 65 percent of respondents [to the survey] missed class often the year before dropping out. [They] described a pattern of refusing to wake up, skipping class, and taking three hour lunches; each absence made them less willing to go back.”1 Having been disengaged from school, these students dropped out. This decision alone will lower the trajectory of their future success. The decisions of these students cannot be consid-ered alone; there is also a school system responsible for their achievements. The high school dropout rate is one of the indicators of the success or failure of both individual schools and entire school systems. In the 2007-2008 school year, the Maryland Public High School System enrolled 288,733 students, and of those students 9,815 dropped out.2 This is a dropout rate of roughly 3.4%, which is slightly below the na-tional average of 3.8%, according to the latest figures available from the U.S. Department of Education based on the 2005-2006 school year. Maryland is the wealthiest state in the country with a median household income estimated by the 2007 Census Estimates to be $68,080. However, Maryland’s dropout rate is not significantly lower than the national average. If Maryland can’t lower its dropout rate even further, then it may have to devote more of its budget each year to caring for high school dropouts.

Not only do dropouts cause Maryland to lose tax revenue because they earn nearly $10,000 less a year than the state’s high school graduates, they also increase Medicaid expenses because dropouts tend to have poorer health.3 In addition, Maryland must pay more to keep the prisons running as there is a link between dropout rates and incarceration rates, which doubles for dropouts compared to high school gradu-ates.4 “Crime is often an outcome of marginalization and dropouts have been marginalized,” said Joseph McDonald, dean of New York University’s School of Education.5

One of the early warning signs of a student feeling marginalized is a drop in their attendance rate. Regu-lar school attendance is commonly seen as necessary for academic achievement. High attendance and low truancy rates reflect the willingness of students to en-gage in school learning and the capacity of the school system to meet their needs.6 This makes it clear that a healthy and successful school system requires a sensi-tivity towards the needs of its most at risk students, so they do not become marginalized and drop out. To further explore the issue, a stark contrast ap-pears between the dropout rate of different ethnic groups and income levels. One nationwide study published in 2006 showed that not only do dropout rates vary widely between ethnic groups (Asian: 2.0%, Black: 9.4%, Hispanic: 10.4%, White: 4.9%), but they also vary widely between socioeconomic quartiles (Lowest: 12.4%, Second: 7.7%, Third: 3.8%, Highest:

1.8%).7 These are very important trends to uncover and understand if Maryland is going to effectively lower its dropout rate. Our study will focus on the dropout rates for the State of Maryland. Comparisons will be made for each high school district with regard to the dropout rates, the average daily attendance rate, the percentage of students more than 20 days absent, the ethnicity and the median household income. We believe that con-sidering these different datasets in concert will reveal important correlations. GIS provides the tools to create maps of high schools and their districts located within each Mary-land county. The analysis will be achieved using census data and data from MDreportcard.org.

2

Proposal & Scope of Work Purpose

To determine if there is a correlation between several Maryland Report Card.org criteria (dropout rates,

attendance rates, and percentage of students more than 20 days absent), and socio-economic demographic data (median household income and ethnicity).

Educational Institutional Profile

The Community College of Baltimore County provides an accessible, affordable and high-quality

education that prepares students for transfer and career success, strengthens the regional work force and en-riches our community. The Geospatial Applications program provides comprehensive instruction in Geographic Information Systems (GIS), photogrammetry and remote sensing and Global Positioning Systems (GPS). Geospatial techniques are used to aid in decision making in fields as diverse as business, marketing, homeland security, public policy, environment, engineering, public health, archeology and criminal justice by identifying patterns between graphical information (maps) and data. A unique aspect of the CCBC Geospatial program is the incorporation of real-world situations in all courses, starting at the introductory level. Advanced Geospatial Applications, GEOA 250 is the capstone course of the program. It requires stu-dents to draw on experience from all previous courses in the Geospatial Applications program, while working as a team on a complex project, taking it from incep-tion to completion.

3

Proposal & Scope of Work Definition of Terms

HigH ScHool: A public high school in Maryland that has a school district. This study excludes Baltimore City public high schools.

Dropout rate:8 The percentage of students drop-ping out of school in grades 9–12 in a single year. The dropout rate is computed by dividing the number of dropouts by the total number of students in grades 9–12 served by the school. Students who re-enter school during the same year in which they dropped out of school are not counted as dropouts.

attenDance rate (Average Daily Attendance):9 This rate reflects the percentage of students present in school for at least half the average school day during the school year. The average daily attendance for a given year is based on the aggregate number of enrolled students who are present in school each day from the first day of school through March 15th. A student is counted present only if actually at school or present at another place at a school activity that is sponsored by the school and is personally supervised by a member or members of the school staff.

etHnicity: The classification of a population that shares common characteristics, such as, religion, tradi-tions, culture, language, and tribal or national origin.10 The racial and ethnic categories set forth … should not be interpreted as being scientific or anthropological in nature; and the concepts and terminology should reflect clear and generally understood definitions that can achieve broad public acceptance.11 Because of project constraints, this study will focus on only the Caucasian, African-American, Asian-American and Hispanic population.

MeDian HouSeHolD incoMe:12 the amount which divides households into two equal groups, one having incomes above that amount and the other having in-comes below that amount. The median is the preferred measure of central tendency because it is less sensitive than the average (mean) to extreme observations. The median is also considerably lower than the average, and provides a more accurate representation of the wealth of the typical household.

ScHool iD: Unique Identification number assigned to schools by MDReportcard.org

giS (geographical information Systems):13 An in-tegrated collection of computer software and data used to view and manage information about geographic places, analyze spatial relationships, and model spatial processes. A GIS provides a framework for gathering and organizing spatial data and related information so that it can be displayed and analyzed.

StuDentS abSent More tHan 20 DayS:14 The percent-age of students absent from school more than 20 days (i.e., 20.5) during the September to June school year. Summer school attendance is excluded. The percentage is computed by dividing the number of students absent more than 20 days by the number of students in mem-bership more than 90 days at a given school during the September to June school year.

tHieSSen polygonS: Polygons whose boundaries are defined by the area that is closest to each point relative to other points.

4

Proposal & Scope of Work Project Goals

This project will produce the following goals:

•IdentifythelocationsofMarylandpublichighschools and their districts.

•Identifythedropoutrates,attendanceratesandpercentage of students more than 20 days absent of the student bodies of Maryland public high schools.

•Identifythemedianhouseholdincomeandethnic diversity of each school district.

•Compareandcontrasttheeducationdatawithsocio-economic demographics of each school district.

Project Tasks

1. Downloaded the dropout rates, attendance rates & the percentage of students more than 20 days absent from MDReportCard.org.

•ExtractedonlypublichighschoolsinMarylandthat have a defined school district boundary. This eliminated the technical high schools in each county.

2. Extracted the public high schools from SHA (State Highway Administration) Points of Interest dataset.

•ManuallyaddedtheuniqueschoolIDnumberto the SHA School dataset.

•JoinedtheMDReportCard2007-08datafordropout rates, attendance rates & the percent-age of students more than 20 days absent to the SHA School dataset based on the unique school ID number.

3. Added points for high schools missing from the SHA Points of Interest Data set.

•Foundtheschooladdressesontheirwebsites. •EnteredtheaddressesintoGoogleEarthto

obtain an XY value. •Createdpointsinthedatasetandaddedthe

school data. •Foralistofschools,seeAppendix I.4. Obtained high school district shapefiles for all of

the Maryland high schools with districts from their respective County by contacting the GIS Manager for that particular County. If shapefiles were not available, then polygons were created by using alternative information provided (i.e. a paper/web site map, school bus routes). If there was no infor-mation, then Thiessen polygons were created (See Appendix II and III).

•AddedtheuniqueschoolIDnumbertotheschool district dataset.

•JoinedtheMDReportCard2008datafordrop-out rates, attendance rates & the percentage of students more than 20 days absent to the school district dataset based on the unique school ID number.

5. Downloaded Maryland Block Group shapefile from Census.gov

•Containedethnicitydatasets.

6. Downloaded the median household income from Census.gov

•JoineddatatotheMarylandBlockGroupshapefile.

7. Created centroids from the Census Block Groups for Maryland.

•Attributedeachcentroidtotheschooldistrictthat contained it.

•SelectedbytheLocationofthecentroidstoeach school district.

•Createdanaveragemedianhouseholdincomeand ethnicity for the school districts.

8. Created a raster image that represented the varia-tions of the median household income.

9. Selected the median household income on the centroid layer.

•CreatedanIDW(InverseDistanceWeighted)raster using ArcGIS Spatial Analyst.

10. Dissolved county boundaries to create the state boundary.

11. Compared and contrasted the education data with socio-economic demographics of each school district.

5

Proposal & Scope of Work Methodology

Data for this project was obtained from a variety of sources. Dropout rates, attendance rates, and the percentage of students more than 20 days absent and school ID’s were downloaded from www.mdreportcard.org. Census block group data which included ethnicity and median household income data was obtained from census.gov. The Maryland public high school loca-tions were downloaded from Maryland State Highway Administration’s Points of Interest file. School district files, where available, were obtained from respective county GIS departments. If the school districts weren’t available the school districts were creat-ed by generating thiessen polygons. The school districts created by thiessen polygons were similar in comparison with school district maps displayed on county board of education web sites. Each Maryland public high school was matched with its unique identifier from the 2008 Maryland Report Card data. This was necessary so that dropout rates, attendance rates, and the percentage of students more than 20 days absent would be able to be joined to the high school point file. ESRI’s ArcGIS 9.2 GIS software was used to create the maps of the State of Maryland, Maryland counties, Maryland public high school districts, and the locations of Maryland public high schools.

Assumptions

This analysis has the following assumptions:

1. Median household IncomeSchool districts with higher median household in-comes will have: •higherattendancerates. •lessstudentsabsentmorethan20days. •lowerdropoutrates.School districts with lower median household incomes will have: •lowerattendancerates. •morestudentsabsentmorethan20days. •higherdropoutrates.

2. EthnicityCertain ethnic populations will have: •higherdropoutrates,lowerattendancerates,and

more students absent more than 20 days - African-American & Hispanic •lowerdropoutrates,higherattendancerates,and

less students absent more than 20 days - Caucasian & Asian-American

3. Urban vs. Rural school districtsSchool districts closer to Baltimore City and Wash-ington, DC, will have higher dropout rates, lower attendance rates, and more students absent more than 20 days.

Project Receivables

•SHAPointsofInterest. •2007-8MDReportCard.orgtablesfordrop-

out rates, attendance rates, and the percentage of students more than 20 days absent of the student bodies.

•CountyboundariesprovidedbyESRIdataDVD.

•Schooldistrictboundaries. •Census2000blockgroupshapefileswith

median household income and ethnicity data set.

Project Deliverables

•Detailedreportofourfindings. •MapsinPDFformat.

Quality Assurance/Quality Control

CCBC’s Geospatial Applications Department is committed to providing quality products that are inspected and reviewed throughout the project life cycle.

MapsIntroduction

The following maps compare several variables for Maryland public high school districts. These variables include attendance rates, dropout rates, percentage of students more than 20 days absent, median household income, and ethnic groups.

Map ProjectionsAll of the maps are projected in NAD 1983 HARN, State Plane Maryland, FIPS 1900 Feet.

State of Maryland Maps

County Focus Maps

County Comparison Maps

6

State of Maryland MapsIntroduction

These maps show the dropout rates, attendance rates, and the percentage of students more than 20 days ab-sent for each high school across the state of Maryland compared to median household income and ethnicity.

These maps do not including Baltimore City.

See Appendix IV on page 52 for a map labeled with county names.

7

8

Dropout Rates

This map depicts all Maryland school districts symbolized by dropout rates. This map confirms our assumption

that the areas closer to Baltimore and Washington, DC, would have higher dropout rates compared to other areas. However there is a considerable presence of high dropout rates east of the Chesapeake Bay.

8

low middle high

1 2 3 4 +– – – –in percent

Dropout rates

State of Maryland

Washington, DC

Baltimore City

9

Attendance Rates

This map depicts all Maryland school districts symbolized by attendance rates. This map confirms our assumption

that the areas closer to Baltimore and Washington, DC, would have lower attendance rates than other areas.

9

low middle high

95 93 91 89 -+ – – –in percent

attenDanCe rates

State of Maryland

Washington, DC

Baltimore City

Students More Than 20 Days Absent

This map depicts all Maryland school districts symbol-ized by percentage of students more than 20 days

absent. This map confirms our assumption that the areas closer to Baltimore and Washington, DC, would have more students who were absent more than 20 days compared to other areas.

low middle high

6 12 18 24 +– – – –in percent

stuDents more than 20 Days aBsent

State of Maryland

Washington, DC

Baltimore City

10

Dropout Rates

11

low middle high

45 55 65 75 +– – – –in thousands of dollars

meDian householD inCome

low middle high

1 2 3 4 +– – – –in percent

Dropout rates

State of Maryland by Median Household Income

Maryland school districts are symbolized by median household income with school data symbolized with

graduated dots based on dropout rates. This map proves our assumption that the lower median household income the higher the dropout percentage. However, Montgomery County is an exception to our analysis with many schools with high dropout rates.

Attendance Rates


graduated dots based on Attendance rates. This map proves our assumption that the higher median household income the higher the attendance rate. However, Prince George’s County is an exception with very low Attendance Rates and a rather high median household income.

12

low middle high



high middle low

95 93 91 89 -+ – – –in percent

attenDanCe rates


Students More Than 20 Days Absent


graduated dots based on percentage of students more than 20 days absent. This map proves our assumption that districts with a higher median household income had fewer students that missed more than 20 days. However, Prince George’s County is the exception again.

low middle high



high middle low

6 12 18 24 +– – – –in percent



13

Dropout Rates by IDW Raster ImageState of Maryland by Median Household Income


graduated dots based on dropout rates. This map proves our assumption that the higher median household income the lower the dropout rate.

low middle high

1 2 3 4 +– – – –in percent

Dropout rateslow middle high



14

Attendance Rates by IDW Raster Image


graduated dots based on attendance rates. This map proves our assumption that the higher median household income the higher the attendance rate, with the exception of Montgomery County.

low middle high




high middle low

95 93 91 89 -+ – – –in percent

attenDanCe rates

15

Dropout Rates by Caucasian Population

Maryland school districts are symbolized by Caucasian population with graduated dots based on dropout

rates. This proves our assumption that the Caucasian population has a lower dropout percentage.

low middle high

50 70 80 90 +– – – –in percent of population

CauCasian population

low middle high

1 2 3 4 +– – – –in percent

Dropout rates

16

State of Maryland by Ethnicity

17

Attendance Rates by Caucasian Population

Maryland school districts are symbolized by Caucasian population with graduated dots based on attendance

rates. This proves our assumption that the Caucasian population has a high attendance rate.

low middle high



17


high middle low

95 93 91 89 -+ – – –in percent

attenDanCe rates

18

Dropout Rates by African-American Population

Maryland school districts are symbolized by African-American population with graduated dots based on

dropout rates. This proves our assumption that the African-American population has a higher dropout percentage.

18

low middle high


afriCan-ameriCan population

low middle high

1 2 3 4 +– – – –in percent

Dropout rates


Attendance Rates by African-American Population

Maryland school districts are symbolized by African-American population with graduated dots based on

dropout rates. This proves our assumption that the African-American population has a lower attendance rate.

19

low middle high




high middle low

95 93 91 89 -+ – – –in percent

attenDanCe rates

Dropout Rates by Asian-American Population

Maryland school districts are symbolized by Asian-Amer-ican population with graduated dots based on dropout

rates. Focusing on Montgomery County, this map does not prove our assumption that the Asian-American population has a lower dropout percentage.

low middle high


asian-ameriCan population

low middle high

1 2 3 4 +– – – –in percent

Dropout rates

20


21

Attendance Rates by Asian-American Population

Maryland school districts are symbolized by Asian-Amer-ican population with graduated dots based on dropout

rates. This proves our assumption that attendance rates are higher in school districts with a larger Asian-American population.

low middle high



21


high middle low

95 93 91 89 -+ – – –in percent

attenDanCe rates

Dropout Rates by Hispanic Population

Maryland school districts are symbolized by Hispanic population with graduated dots based on dropout

rates. Focusing on Montgomery County, this proves our assumption that the Hispanic population has a higher dropout percentage.

low middle high


hispaniC population

low middle high

1 2 3 4 +– – – –in percent

Dropout rates

22


Attendance Rates by Hispanic Population

Maryland school districts are symbolized by Hispanic population with graduated dots based on attendance

rates. Focusing on Montgomery County, this map does not prove our assumption that the Hispanic population has a lower attendance rate.

low middle high


hispaniC population

23


high middle low

95 93 91 89 -+ – – –in percent

attenDanCe rates

County Focus MapsIntroduction

Baltimore County is focused on because of its proximity to Baltimore City and because it also has rural areas to the north.

24

25

Baltimore County school districts are symbolized by dropout rates, attendance rates, and percentage of

students more than 20 days absent. These maps prove our assumption that school districts closer to Baltimore City will have higher dropout rates, lower attendance rates, and more students absent more than 20 days.

low middle high

95 93 91 89 -+ – – –in percent

attenDanCe rateslow middle high

6 12 18 24 +- – – –in percent


Baltimore CountyDropout Rates, Attendance Rates & Students More Than 20 Days Absent

County Focus

Baltimore

City

Baltimore

County

low middle high

1 2 3 4 +– – – –in percent

Dropout rates

Baltimore County school districts are symbolized by median household income with school data symbolized

with graduated dots based on dropout rates and atten-dance rates. This map proves our assumption that the lower median household income the higher the dropout rate and lower the attendance rate.

Baltimore CountyDropout & Attendance Rates by Median Household Income

County Focus

26

low middle high



low middle high

1 2 3 4 +– – – –in percent

Dropout rates

high middle low

95 93 91 89 -+ – – –in percent

attenDanCe rates

Baltimore

City

Baltimore

County

Baltimore County school districts are symbolized by median household income with school data symbolized

with graduated dots based on dropout rates and percentage of students more than 20 days absent. This map proves our assumption that the lower median household income the higher the dropout rate and more students absent more than 20 days.

Baltimore CountyDropout & Students More Than 20 Days Absent by Median Household Income

County Focus

27

low middle high



low middle high

1 2 3 4 +– – – –in percent

Dropout rates

high middle low

95 93 91 89 -+ – – –in percent


Baltimore

City

Baltimore

County

28

Baltimore County school districts are symbolized by Caucasian population with school data symbolized with

graduated dots based on dropout rates and percentage of students more than 20 days absent. This proves our assump-tion that the Caucasian population has a lower dropout rate and a higher attendance rate.

County Focus

Baltimore CountyDropout & Attendance Rates by Caucasian Population

low middle high

1 2 3 4 +– – – –in percent

Dropout rates

high middle low

95 93 91 89 -+ – – –in percent

attenDanCe rates

Baltimore

County

Baltimore

City

low middle high



29

Baltimore County school districts are symbolized by Caucasian population with school data symbolized with

graduated dots based on dropout rates and percentage of students more than 20 days absent. This proves our assump-tion that the Caucasian population has a lower dropout rate and fewer students absent more than 20 days.

County Focus

Baltimore CountyDropout & Students More Than 20 Days Absent by Caucasian Population

low middle high

1 2 3 4 +– – – –in percent




high middle low

6 12 18 24 +- – – –in percent


Baltimore

County

Baltimore

City

30

Baltimore County school districts are symbolized by African-American population with school data symbol-

ized with graduated dots based on dropout rates and per-centage of students more than 20 days absent. This proves our assumption that the African-American population has a higher dropout rate and a lower attendance rate.

County Focus

Baltimore CountyDropout & Attendance Rates by African-American Population

low middle high

1 2 3 4 +– – – –in percent




high middle low

95 93 91 89 -+ – – –in percent

attenDanCe rates

Baltimore

County

Baltimore

City

31

Baltimore County school districts are symbolized by African-American population with school data symbol-

ized with graduated dots based on dropout rates and per-centage of students more than 20 days absent. This proves our assumption that the African-American population has a higher dropout rate and more students absent more than 20 days.

County Focus

Baltimore CountyDropout & Students More Than 20 Days Absent by African-American Population

low middle high

1 2 3 4 +– – – –in percent




high middle low

6 12 18 24 +- – – –in percent


Baltimore

County

Baltimore

City

32

Baltimore County school districts are symbolized by Asian-American population with school data symbolized

with graduated dots based on dropout rates and percent-age of students more than 20 days absent. This proves our assumption that the Asian-American population has a lower dropout rate and a higher attendance rate. However, this is not a large enough statistical sample.

County Focus

Baltimore CountyDropout & Attendance Rates by Asian-American Population

low middle high

1 2 3 4 +– – – –in percent




high middle low

95 93 91 89 -+ – – –in percent

attenDanCe rates

Baltimore

County

Baltimore

City

33

Baltimore County school districts are symbolized by Asian-American population with school data symbolized

with graduated dots based on dropout rates and percent-age of students more than 20 days absent. This proves our assumption that the Asian-American population has a lower dropout rate and fewer students absent more than 20 days. However, this is not a large enough statistical sample.

County Focus

Baltimore CountyDropout & Students More Than 20 Days Absent by Asian-American Population

low middle high

1 2 3 4 +– – – –in percent




high middle low

6 12 18 24 +- – – –in percent


Baltimore

County

Baltimore

City

34

Baltimore County school districts are symbolized by Hispanic population with school data symbolized with

graduated dots based on dropout rates and percentage of students more than 20 days absent. There is not a large enough statistical sample to prove or disprove our assump-tions.

County Focus

Baltimore CountyDropout & Attendance Rates by Hispanic Population

low middle high

1 2 3 4 +– – – –in percent



hispaniC population

high middle low

95 93 91 89 -+ – – –in percent

attenDanCe rates

Baltimore

County

Baltimore

City

35

Baltimore County school districts are symbolized by Hispanic population with school data symbolized with

graduated dots based on dropout rates and percentage of students more than 20 days absent. There is not a large enough statistical sample to prove or disprove our assump-tions.

County Focus

Baltimore CountyDropout & Students More Than 20 Days Absent by Hispanic Population

low middle high

1 2 3 4 +– – – –in percent



hispaniC population

high middle low

6 12 18 24 +- – – –in percent


Baltimore

County

Baltimore

City

County Comparison MapsIntroduction

Montgomery and Prince George’s County are their focus. These counties are a representative snapshot of the disparity in median household income as well as ethnic populations in Maryland.

36

37

Montgomery and Prince George’s County school districts are symbolized by dropout rates, attendance rates, and

percentage of students more than 20 days absent. This set of maps confirms our assumption that school districts closer to Washington, DC, will have higher dropout rates, lower attendance rates, and more students absent more than 20 days.

low middle high

95 93 91 89 -+ – – –in percent

attenDanCe rateslow middle high

6 12 18 24 +- – – –in percent


Montgomery & Prince George’s CountiesDropout Rates, Attendance Rates & Students More Than 20 Days Absent

County Comparison

montgomery

County

prinCe george’s

County

Washington, DC

low middle high

1 2 3 4 +– – – –in percent

Dropout rates

Montgomery & Prince George’s CountiesDropout & Attendance Rates by Median Household Income

County Comparison

38

low middle high



low middle high

1 2 3 4 +– – – –in percent

Dropout rates

montgomery

County

prinCe george’s

County

high middle low

95 93 91 89 -+ – – –in percent

attenDanCe rates

Washington, DC

Montgomery and Prince George’s County school districts are symbolized by median household income with

school data symbolized with graduated dots based on dropout rates and percentage of students more than 20 days absent. This set of maps confirms our assumption that school districts that have lower household income will have higher dropout and lower attendance rates.

Montgomery & Prince George’s CountiesDropout & Students More Than 20 Days Absent by Median Household Income

County Comparison

39

low middle high



low middle high

1 2 3 4 +– – – –in percent

Dropout rates

montgomery

County

prinCe george’s

County

high middle low

95 93 91 89 -+ – – –in percent


Washington, DC

Montgomery and Prince George’s County school districts are symbolized by median household income with

school data symbolized with graduated dots based on drop-out rates and attendance rate. This set of maps confirms our assumptions that school districts that have lower household income will have higher dropout rates and more students absent more than twenty days.

40

County Comparison

Montgomery & Prince George’s CountiesDropout & Attendance Rates by Caucasian Population

low middle high

1 2 3 4 +– – – –in percent

Dropout rates

montgomery

County

prinCe george’s

County

low middle high



high middle low

95 93 91 89 -+ – – –in percent

attenDanCe rates

Washington, DC

Montgomery and Prince George’s County school districts are symbolized by Caucasian population with school

data symbolized with graduated dots based on dropout rates and percentage of students more than 20 days absent. This set of maps confirms our assumptions that school districts that have a higher Caucasian population will have lower dropout rates and higher attendance rates.

41

County Comparison

Montgomery & Prince George’s CountiesDropout & Students More Than 20 Days Absent by Caucasian Population

low middle high

1 2 3 4 +– – – –in percent

Dropout rates

montgomery

County

prinCe george’s

County

low middle high



Washington, DC

high middle low

6 12 18 24 +- – – –in percent


Montgomery and Prince George’s County school districts are symbolized by Caucasian population with school

data symbolized with graduated dots based on dropout rates and attendance rate. This set of maps confirms our as-sumption that school districts that have a higher Caucasian population will have lower dropout rates and less students more than 20 days absent.

42

County Comparison

Montgomery & Prince George’s CountiesDropout & Attendance Rates by African-American Population

low middle high

1 2 3 4 +– – – –in percent

Dropout rates

montgomery

County

prinCe george’s

County

low middle high



high middle low

95 93 91 89 -+ – – –in percent

attenDanCe rates

Washington, DC

Montgomery and Prince George’s County school districts are symbolized by African-American population with school

data symbolized with graduated dots based on dropout rates and percentage of students more than 20 days absent. This set of maps confirms our assumption that school districts that have a higher African-American population will have a lower atten-dance rate, but not that there would be higher dropout rates.

43

County Comparison

Montgomery & Prince George’s CountiesDropout & Students More Than 20 Days Absent by African-American Population

low middle high

1 2 3 4 +– – – –in percent

Dropout rates

montgomery

County

prinCe george’s

County

low middle high



Washington, DC

high middle low

6 12 18 24 +- – – –in percent


Montgomery and Prince George’s County school districts are symbolized by African-American population with school

data symbolized with graduated dots based on dropout rates and attendance rate. This set of maps confirms our assump-tion that school districts that have a higher African-American population will have more students more than 20 days absent, but not that there would be higher dropout rates.

44

County Comparison

Montgomery & Prince George’s CountiesDropout & Attendance Rates by Asian-American Population

low middle high

1 2 3 4 +– – – –in percent

Dropout rates

montgomery

County

prinCe george’s

County

low middle high



high middle low

95 93 91 89 -+ – – –in percent

attenDanCe rates

Washington, DC

Montgomery and Prince George’s County school districts are symbolized by Asian-American population with school

data symbolized with graduated dots based on dropout rates and percentage of students more than 20 days absent. This set of maps confirms our assumption that school districts that have a higher Asian-American population will have higher atten-dance rates, but not that there would be higher dropout rates.

45

County Comparison

Montgomery & Prince George’s CountiesDropout & Students More Than 20 Days Absent by Asian-American Population

low middle high

1 2 3 4 +– – – –in percent

Dropout rates

montgomery

County

prinCe george’s

County

low middle high



Washington, DC

high middle low

6 12 18 24 +- – – –in percent


Montgomery and Prince George’s County school districts are symbolized by Asian-American population with

school data symbolized with graduated dots based on dropout rates and attendance rate. This set of maps does not effectively confirm our assumptions that school districts that have a higher Asian-American population will have lower dropout rates and less students more than 20 days absent.

46

Montgomery and Prince George’s County school districts are symbolized by Hispanic population with school data

symbolized with graduated dots based on dropout rates and percentage of students more than 20 days absent. This set of maps confirms our assumption that school districts that have a higher Hispanic population will have higher dropout rates, but not that there would be lower attendance rates.

County Comparison

Montgomery & Prince George’s CountiesDropout & Attendance Rates by Hispanic Population

low middle high

1 2 3 4 +– – – –in percent

Dropout rates

montgomery

County

prinCe george’s

County

low middle high


hispaniC population

high middle low

95 93 91 89 -+ – – –in percent

attenDanCe rates

Washington, DC

47

Montgomery and Prince George’s County school districts are symbolized by Hispanic population with school

data symbolized with graduated dots based on dropout rates and attendance rate. This set of maps confirms our assump-tion that school districts that have a higher Hispanic popula-tion will have higher dropout rates, but not that there would be more students more than 20 days absent.

County Comparison

Montgomery & Prince George’s CountiesDropout & Students More Than 20 Days Absent by Hispanic Population

low middle high

1 2 3 4 +– – – –in percent

Dropout rates

montgomery

County

prinCe george’s

County

low middle high


hispaniC population

high middle low

6 12 18 24 +- – – –in percent


Washington, DC

48

AnalysisFinal Analysis

There is a correlation between social demographics and attendance and dropout rates. However, our research revealed that some of our assumptions were not always accurate.

1. Median household Income

School districts with a higher median household in-come generally did have:

•higherattendancerates. •lessstudentsabsentmorethan20days. •lowerdropoutrates.

School districts with a lower median household in-come did have:

•lowerattendancerates. •morestudentsabsentmorethan20days. •higherdropoutrates.

Some notable exceptions were found in western Maryland. Although their median household incomes were low, this did not have the assumed high dropout rates and low attendance rates. It was quite the op-posite. However, eastern Maryland which shares some of the same median household incomes did prove our assumptions. Another exception is Montgomery County—the second wealthiest county in Maryland—where the dropout rates were much higher than we as-sumed. Overall, of the three sets of criteria, the results were the closest to our assumptions.

2. Ethnicity

Certain ethnic populations generally did have:

• higher dropout rates, lower attendance rates, and more students absent more than 20 days

- African-American One notable exception was in Prince George’s

County where the dropout rate was not very high.

- Hispanic Their dropout rates were high, but their atten-

dance rates were low, which did not follow our assumption.

• lower dropout rates, higher attendance rates, and less students absent more than 20 days

- Caucasian There were no notable deviations from our

assumptions.

- Asian-American Their attendance rates were high, but their

dropout rates were high, too. This did not fol-low our assumption.

3. Urban vs. Rural school districts

School districts closer to Baltimore City and Wash-ington, DC, did have higher dropout rates, lower attendance rates, and more students absent more than 20 days.

To the east and west of Baltimore City, and the north of Washington, DC, the correlation was very strong, but directly north of Baltimore and east of Washing-ton, DC, the correlation was weaker.

There were also rural districts in northeast and eastern Maryland that shared similar statistical relationships. Although our research very strongly supports our as-sumption, it is clear that this is not the sole criteria in the decisions of students to miss school or dropout.

49

AnalysisRecommendations

Mapping the data receivables, we discovered pos-sible connections that our project constraints

would not allow us to explore. The following is a list of seven recommendations for further research.

1. Include a layer containing the major highways. You can trace the schools with the highest drop-out rates and attendance rates from I-495 to I-95, around I-695 and further along I-95 to Dela-ware.

2. Instead of estimating the Ethnicity data based on an average of Block Group centroids, you can get race specific data on dropout rates and atten-dance rates in Maryland high schools. They are accurate to as low as 5 students, which won’t help with many smaller ethnicities.

3. Focus on each county instead of just Baltimore County. Each county has its own unique set of socio-economic data.

4. Compare many different counties for the same reason mentioned in our third recommendation.

5. Focus on Urban vs. Rural vs. Suburban settings. We didn’t have the time to classify each district under on of those attributes. We were surprised to see such poverty in Rural districts, but not the dropout rates to match.

6. Use the HSAs as well as Teacher Certification data to explore some more potential correlations between dropout rates and attendance rates.

7. Be careful while pursuing further research. Counties add new high school districts often, thus out dating even year-old data. In addition, school districts can change from year to year even without a high school being added. Be sure to get the most up-to-date school districts you can. Go to Appendix I to see that even the SHA Points of Interest is not even completely up-to-date.

There are many factors that influence a student’s decision whether to dropout or not. These factors change with time, surroundings and cultural shifts.

50

For More...Notes

1. Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, May 2006, The Silent Epidemicwww.gatesfoundation.org/learning/Pages/2006-High-school-drop-out-rate-survey.aspx2. www.mdreportcard.org3. Friedman Foundation, The High Cost of Maryland’s Dropout Ratewww.friedmanfoundation.org/downloadFile.do?id=3174. Ibid.5. Washington Square Review, Spring 2005, In New York, Rising Teen Drop-out and Incarceration Ratesjournalism.nyu.edu/pubzone/wsr/article/rising_rates/6. The Boston Indicator’s Project, 2006, Attendance, drop-out and expulsion rates by level, Boston and Massachusettswww.bostonindicators.org/indicatorsproject/education/indica-tor.aspx?id=4352&sc=566&sct=Children%20and%20Youth7. UCLMRI, Oct. 2006, Tenth Grade Dropout Rates by Na-tive Language, Race/Ethnicity, and Socioeconomic Statuswww.lmri.ucsb.edu/publications/elfacts-7.pdf8. www.mdreportcard.org9. Ibid.10. City of San Antonio, Glossarywww.sanantonio.gov/HEALTH/pdf/healthprofiles/hp2005/Glossary.doc11. Office of Management and Budget, Whitehouse, Directive No. 15. www.whitehouse.gov/omb/fedreg_notice_15/12. U.S. Census Bureau, May 2003, Net Worth and Asset Ownership of Households: 1998 and 2000, page 3.www.census.gov/prod/2003pubs/p70-88.pdf13. ESRI Internet Glossary: www.esri.com14. www.mdreportcard.org

For Further Information

For further information the following web sites are recommended:

• The Maryland Report Card www.mdreportcard.org

• The Census Bureau www.census.gov

• Maryland State Highway Administration www.sha.state.md.us

• ESRI www.esri.com

Contact Information

Scott Jeffrey Program Director CCBC Geospatial Applications Program [email protected]

Ashley Buzzeo Instructor CCBC Geospatial Applications Program [email protected]

Bill Fearrington Student CCBC’s GEOA 250: Adv. Geospatial Applications [email protected]

Louis Umerlik Student CCBC’s GEOA 250: Adv. Geospatial Applications [email protected]

51

Appendix I

Missing high schools from SHA Points of Interest

List of missing schools by comparing the SHA points to our list of high schools.

•Dr.HenryWiseA.Jr.HighSchool •St.Michael’sMiddle/HighSchool •WilliamsportHighSchool

Appendix II

How the school districts were acquired

County Receiveda Generated/PDFb Generated/Thiessenc

Allegany x - -Anne Arundel x - - Baltimore x - -Calvert x - -Caroline - - xCarroll x - -Cecil - - xCharles - - xDorchester - - xFrederick x - -Garrett - - xHarford x - -Howard x - -Kent x - -Montgomery x - -Prince George’s - x - Queen Anne’s x - -Somerset - - xSt. Mary’s x - -Talbot - - xWashington x - -Wicomico x - -Worcester - - x

a - Schools districts received from the county.b - Generated from districts in a PDF map.c - Generated by creating Thiessen polygons.

Appendix III

Process for Creating Thiessen Polygons

1. Created Thiessen Polygons for counties who you could not obtain districts.

•InArcMap,usedthetoollocatedintheAnalysis.Toolbox > Proximity > Create Thiessen Polygons.

•UsedtheSchoolLocationsasthecentroidsforthe polygons.

2. Reprojected the data into NAD 1983 HARN, StatePlane Maryland, FIPS 1900 Feet

3. Stripped down the attributes of all of the shapefiles for each school district.

4. Merged the school district boundaries together. •Tookalookathowthealignatthecounty

boundaries.

5. Did a spatial join based on the schools points.

6. Symbolized the school district boundaries based on the MD report card data.

Appendix

52

Washington D.C.

Somerset

Wicomico

Worcester

Dorchester

Talbot

Caroline

Queen Anne's

Kent

AnneArundel

Calvert

Cecil

HarfordBaltimore

BaltimoreCity

Howard

Carroll

Charles

PrinceGeorge's

Montgomery

St.Mary's

Frederick

WashingtonAlleganyGarrett

Appendix

This is a map with each of the counties labeled. This will be helpful when viewing the maps in the State of Maryland Maps section. Those maps are not labeled extensively because that would disrupt the readability of the data.

52

Appendix IV

Ch

esap

eake

Bay

Download - Maryland's Missing Students

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