Download - Managing Flash Floods
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Managing Flash FloodsManaging Flash Floods
Risk Perception from a Cultural Risk Perception from a Cultural PerspectivePerspective
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IntroductionsIntroductions
• Who is here• Why we are here
– We all share a common interest in reducing losses to life and property from flash floods
• What to expect from this meeting– Overview of proposed risk perception
research project– Discussion: How to make this information
useful and practical for implementation
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CLIMAS AFMA, NWS,
ADEM, FCDs, etc.
Forging thepartnership
Fieldwork: surveys and analysis
Present findings, feedback,
brainstorming
Develop new products
Implement new products
Ashley Coles’smaster’s thesis
Final report
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Mileti, 1995
Effective warnings must be…Effective warnings must be…• Heard• Understood
– What is happening, time, how to prepare
• Believed– Warning is true, danger is
imminent
• Personalized– Risk to self or property is
perceived
• Responded to
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Risk perception researchRisk perception researchTypical approachesTypical approaches
• There is an appropriate response, anything else is irrational– Behavior as a result of individual
psychological (dis?)function– Behavior as a result of human nature
• People need more education and information
• More recently and frequently, studies are beginning to account for the effects of cultural and social contexts
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What is culture?What is culture?
• A way of life learned from and shared by a social unit– Attitudes, beliefs, values, and habits
• Not just national, also “gender, ethnicity, religion, cohort or generation, historical period, profession, social class, and country of origin” (Kitayama & Markus, 1995, p. 368)
• Norms, values, and practices shape how individuals process information and make decisions
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Main cultural factorsMain cultural factors
• Trust– In science, government, and responsible agency
• Self-efficacy– How confident people feel in their ability to handle ordinary life
as well as extreme events
• Social incorporation– Extent of social networks– Social amplification of risk
• Social autonomy– Degree of freedom to fill any social role
• Time orientation– Focus on past, present, or future
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Mary Douglas: Mary Douglas: Risk and BlameRisk and Blame
Isolate
Individualist/Market
Hierarchy/Bureaucracy
Sect/Enclave
Incorporation
Aut
onom
y
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But it’s more complicated…But it’s more complicated…
Hazard information
Gender TrustAge Self-efficacyEthnicity IncorporationSocioeconomic AutonomyEtc. Time orientation
Behavior
Risk Perception
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Implications for mitigationImplications for mitigation• Can education and
information are likely to change attitudes, values, and beliefs?
• Risk managers must speak to these attitudes, values, and beliefs– Which means that
managers must “know” the people they are responsible for protecting
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Why use a survey?Why use a survey?
• Can perform both quantitative and qualitative analyses on the data– Quantitative: regression analysis– Qualitative: open-ended questions for deeper
insight
• Able to reach a broad spectrum of various cultural groups
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Who is the target sample?Who is the target sample?
• People who have crossed flooded washes– Problematic because of
death, stigma, and number of successful crossings
• 1000 Tucson residents in flood prone areas– Specific neighborhoods
with proximity to commonly flooded intersections or crossings
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Plan to increase response ratePlan to increase response rate
• Week 1: First survey packet mailed out – Survey in English and Spanish– Consent forms– Reply-paid envelope
• Week 2: Reminder Postcard
• Week 3: Second survey packet mailed out
• Offer drawing for $20 Visa Gift Card
• Reduce effects of stigma
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What does the survey ask?What does the survey ask?
• Using direct and indirect methods– Cultural factors– Historical and hypothetical behavior
• Relevant demographic information
Compared to the average person, I am a good judge of whether flood waters are dangerous.
Completely Somewhat Neutral Somewhat CompletelyDisagreeDisagree Agree Agree
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What do you think?What do you think?
• Is this potentially useful for your flood mitigation decision-making?
• Do you have the desire and ability to implement new mitigation strategies based on these findings?
• What information would you like to gather with the survey tool?