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Page 1: Land use dynamics in Brazilian La Plata Basin and anthropogenic climate change

Land use dynamics in Brazilian La Plata Basinand anthropogenic climate change

Ana Carolina F. de Vasconcelos & Sandro L. Schlindwein &

Marcos A. Lana & Alfredo C. Fantini & Michelle Bonatti &Luiz R. D’Agostini & Sergio R. Martins

Received: 20 May 2011 /Accepted: 7 February 2014# Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2014

Abstract The La Plata Basin (LPB) is one of the most important regions for agriculture andlivestock production in South America, playing a central role in the world food production andfood security. Within its borders is also located the whole Brazilian Pantanal region. Identifyingthe most important land use sectors in LPB as well as the changes observed in the past years isfundamental to recognize which areas of the basin might be more vulnerable to climate changein order to design adaptation strategies. A general characterization of land use and livestockproduction of Brazilian LPB was done by using the System of Automatic Retrieving (SIDRA)of Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) platform as themajor source of data. Itwas observed expressive increases in land areas used for temporary crops, such as soybean,sugarcane, and maize, as well as increases in poultry and swine production. These importantchanges in agricultural land use and livestock production are currently associated to non-climatic drivers, but this dynamic might be strongly affected by the consequences of climatechange and variability, with negative socio-economic impacts for the whole region.

Climatic ChangeDOI 10.1007/s10584-014-1081-8

This article is part of a Special Issue on “Climate change and adaptation in tropical basins” edited by PierreGirard, Craig Hutton, and Jean-Phillipe Boulanger.

Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s10584-014-1081-8)contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

S. L. Schlindwein : A. C. Fantini :M. Bonatti : L. R. D’Agostini : S. R. MartinsFederal University of Santa Catarina - Research Group on Environmental Monitoring and AppraisalNUMAVAM, P.O. box 476, Florianópolis, Brazil 88034-900

M. A. LanaLeibniz-Zentrum für Agrarlandschaftsforschung (ZALF e. V), Eberswalder Str. 84, Müncheberg, Germany15374

Present Address:A. C. F. de Vasconcelos (*)Center for Technology and Natural Resources, Federal University of Campina Grande, Av. Aprígio Veloso,882, 58429-140 Campina Grande, PB, Brazile-mail: [email protected]

A. C. F. de Vasconcelose-mail: [email protected]

Page 2: Land use dynamics in Brazilian La Plata Basin and anthropogenic climate change

1 Introduction

The La Plata Basin (LPB) extends over 3,100,000 km2 and is the fifth largest river basin in theworld and the second in South America. It covers an extensive part of central and northernArgentina, southeast Bolivia, almost all the southern part of Brazil, the entire Paraguay and alarge portion of Uruguay. Within the territories of Brazil and Argentina is located approxi-mately 70 % of the total area of the basin, and the Brazilian territory comprises 45 % of thetotal basin area (Dias Coelho et al. 2004). The Brazilian Pantanal wetland area is fully locatedwithin LPB. The LPB represents an important economic region in southern South Americasince agricultural land use and industry in the basin are responsible for 70 % of the GrossNational Products of the LPB countries (Coutinho et al. 2009). According to these authors, theregion has experiencing a process of continuous change, as a response to drivers such as theinternational market, infra-structure and technology developments, societal evolution, andnational policies.

Agricultural land use in LPB is highly dynamic and of particular importance for the worldeconomy and food security since the region is recognized as a major producer of agriculturalcommodities (OAS 2005). Since the 1960 decade, LPB was subjected to significant processesof land use change, as a result of several land use policies that have been implemented. But thedifferent sectors of LPB have experienced these changes in different ways and intensities. Forexample, in the Brazilian sector of the Uruguay River Basin, subsistence crops and pasturescan be found side-by-side with soybean, maize, and wheat crops. In the Paraguay Basin, landuse changed rapidly due to the clearance of natural vegetation for extending agriculturalproduction areas, further expanding soybean cultivation and livestock exploitation. Finally,in the Paraná Basin, the land use involves agricultural and livestock production, as well ascultivated and native forests. The main agricultural and livestock activities are cattle raisingand soybean, sugarcane and coffee crops. It is important to point out that about 10 % of theBrazilian cattle are raised in the La Plata Basin (World Water Assessment Programme 2007).

Agriculture is one of the main human activities causing anthropogenic global warming.Land use practices have played an important role in changing the global carbon cycle and,possibly, the global climate. Since 1850, roughly 35 % of anthropogenic CO2 emissionsresulted directly from land use. Land cover changes also affect regional climates throughchanges in surface energy and water balance (Foley et al. 2005). But modifying agriculturalland use and/or modifying the management practices within the same land use are alsoalternatives for mitigating climate change (Cerri et al. 2004). Therefore, the dynamics of landuse change might be an important aspect to be considered to design adaptation strategies toclimate change and to formulate land use policies.

It has been recognized that the adverse effects of climate change on agriculturalproduction are likely to be felt more intensively in the lower latitude countries, althoughit is projected a lesser temperature change in these countries than in those in higherlatitudes, because in lower latitude regions the crops are often grown close to their limitsof heat tolerance and moisture availability (Burton and Lim 2005). As the global averagetemperature is likely to result at least 2 °C warmer than today by the end of the 21st

century (IPCC 2007), agricultural land use systems need to be adapted to this temperatureincrease. Therefore, the identification of the most important land use sectors in a regionand the land use changes observed in the last years are fundamental to recognize whichagricultural areas might be more vulnerable to climate change. The vulnerability of theseland use systems is the main factor to be considered in the development of adaptationstrategies, which have to be as far as possible, anticipatory and preventative, andcombined with mitigation measures (Giddens 2009).

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Considering these aspects related to climate change and agricultural land use, a study wascarried out in order to approach the dynamics of changes in agricultural land use in theBrazilian territory of LPB for a specific time period considering different land use sectors, suchas the areas occupied by temporary and permanent crops, forests and pastures, as well as themagnitude of livestock exploitation. This survey is important for the assessment of the impactof non-climatic drivers on the current dynamics of land use change, and how this dynamicsmight be affected by future climate change and variability, with possible impacts on thegeography of agricultural production. Thus, this study might be considered as one of the firststeps in the process of designing learning systems to face the negative consequences of climatechange and variability in the study region.

2 Methodology

The area studied is the Brazilian portion of the LPB, which occupies forty-five percent of thetotal area of the basin (Fig. 1), equivalent to 1,429 million km2, and represents 16.6 % of thetotal area of the country (Dias Coelho et al 2004). The Brazilian part of the La Plata Basin isspread over the States of Goiás (GO), Mato Grosso (MT), Mato Grosso do Sul (MS), MinasGerais (MG), São Paulo (SP), Paraná (PR), Santa Catarina (SC), and Rio Grande do Sul (RS).

These states are distributed in three Brazilian geographical regions: central western,southeast and south, as presented in Table 1.

To identify the municipalities located within the boundaries of the Brazilian area of LPB foreach state, the area covered by the main rivers (Paraná, Uruguai, Paraguai, Iguaçu, and TietêRivers) that form the basin was delimited. The areas of the municipalities partially located

MT

MS

GO

MG

SP

PR

SC

RS

Fig. 1 La Plata Basin area (in gray) situated within the Brazilian territory. Source: CLARIS LPB dataset (http://www.claris-eu.org. Accessed October 18, 2011)

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within the basin were estimated by using cartographic maps with a scale of 1: 2.000.000(República Federativa do Brasil s.d.a, b, c).

The major source of data used to characterize the dynamics of agricultural land use changein the Brazilian area of LPB was the System of Automatic Data Retrieving (SIDRA) of theBrazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) platform (available at www.sidra.ibge.gov.br. Last access: October 3, 2011). Data were surveyed at the municipality level fromagricultural census carried out by IBGE in 1996 and 2008 regarding the total areas (inhectares) used for temporary and permanent crops, forests (natural and planted) andpastures.1 The total crop areas were obtained by summing up all the areas of the cropscultivated in the municipalities located within the basin. During the survey it could beobserved for a few municipalities that their total areas were smaller than the sum of theagricultural area. This fact occurred in regions where crop rotation is widely used, as forexample the crop sequence of wheat (winter crop) followed by soybeans and/or maize (spring/summer crops). Thus we speculate that the areas cultivated with these crops were marked morethan once at the time of the IBGE censuses, originating some discrepancies between the totalagricultural area and the total municipality area. However, we assume that such discrepanciesdo not affect the general trend observed in land use change. The data for areas used for cropswith major economical significance for the region, such as coffee, maize, soybean, sugarcaneand wheat, were considered and highlighted in this study. Because of the relevance and impacton land use in the region, data of cattle, swine and poultry production were also considered.

According to IBGE (2006), each type of land use included in this study was described asfollows: temporary crops are plants presenting short or medium duration, generally withvegetative cycle shorter than 1 year and after harvesting the land is available again for anew cultivation. Cereals, tubers, and greenery are the main temporary crops, but flowers,medicinal, aromatic, and flavor crops were also grown in the study area. Semi permanentcrops, such as sugarcane, cassava, and some forages are included in this category. Permanentcrops are plants presenting long cycles that last many seasons, rather than being replanted aftereach harvest. In this category, fruit trees, coffee, cocoa, and rubber trees were included. Thesecrops can be grown in agroforestry or in monoculture systems. Pastures are land areas covered

Table 1 Distribution of the states in Brazilian area of LPB

State Region Total area Area in LPB Number of municipalities

1,000 ha % 1,000 ha Total In LPB

GO Central west 34,011,70 47 16,081,47 246 115

MT Central west 90,338,60 21 19,062,27 141 30

MS Central west 35,713,99 100 35,713,99 77 77

MG Southeast 58,655,24 21 12,409,85 853 178

SP Southeast 24,817,70 93 23,310,59 645 599

PR South 19,928,10 87 17,395,22 399 347

SC South 9,528,50 41 3,968,87 293 120

RS South 28,173,40 37 10,532,81 496 183

System of Automatic Data Retrieving of the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics platform (available atwww.sidra.ibge.gov.br. Accessed April 16, 2010)

1 The years 1996 and 2008 were selected given the availability of data at IBGE platform at the time of the surveyfor the assessed land use sectors.

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by grasses or leguminous plants used for grazing by livestock. Forestry areas are managed withnative or exotic tree species aiming to provide raw material for industrial uses, like wood,cellulose, and paper. Pinus and Eucalyptus are the main species used for planting, althoughpart of the land should be maintained with natural forests as legal preservation areas.

3 Results and discussion

The magnitude of the variation of area occupied with major crops and livestock production inthe study region between 1996 and 2008 is presented in Tables 2 and 3, respectively. For theconsidered crops, the main variation can be observed for sugarcane and soybean, followed in amuch lower degree by maize and wheat.

It can also be observed a large increase in swine and poultry production in the region. Thisincrease in swine and poultry production has been supported by the increasing availability ofsoybeans and maize (Table 2) that, in turn have been triggered by the increasing world fooddemand (Table 5). As can be seen very clearly from Table 4, the huge increase (almost 10million ha) in the area cultivated with temporary crops (like soybeans) occurred at the expenseof pastures, which in the considered time period have experienced a reduction of almost 11million ha. So, at least in the Brazilian LPB, the increase of agricultural land use has not beenat the expense of forests or due a significant deforestation.

In Table 5 it is possible to see how the variation and change in land use and livestockproduction in the Brazilian LPB has been driven and is coupled to the world food demandincrease between 1996 and 2008, particularly for soybeans, swine and poultry products. As aresponse to this increase in the world food demand, the Brazilian export of these commoditiesrose sharply during this period, a significant part of them having been harvested and producedwithin the Brazilian LPB.

4 Feedbacks between the dynamics of land use change and climate change

Human activity systems dramatically influence and change global land cover.Considering that agriculture is one of the most widespread land use activities,currently covering about 40 % of the global land surface (McIntyre et al. 2009),modifications of land cover are one of the most important anthropogenic influences onthe global climate system (Ramankutty et al. 2006). Therefore, taking into account theextension of LPB and the potential long-term impacts of land cover conversion onclimate, the study of the dynamics of land use change in this region might be animportant aspect to be considered for the projection of future regional climate.

Table 2 Variation of the area oc-cupied by major crops in BrazilianLPB between 1996 and 2008

IBGE (www.sidra.ibge.gov.br.Last access: October 3, 2011)

Crops in LPB 1996 2008 Variation

1,000 ha 1,000 ha %

Coffee 617,00 617,00 0.00

Soybean 6,671,00 10,879,00 63.08

Maize 6,106,00 7,089,00 16.10

Sugarcane 2,963,00 5,718,00 92.98

Wheat 1,466,00 1,694,00 15.55

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Therefore, the significant increase and intensification of agriculture and livestock produc-tion in the Brazilian LPB discussed so far might have far reaching consequences not only atlocal but also at a global level. Alterations of the land surface cover type initiate a series ofinteractions and feedbacks in the climate-biosphere system (Chapin et al 2008). Climateinfluences the types of vegetation that can grow in a given location, and the vegetation types,by modifying land cover characteristics such as albedo and surface roughness, influenceregional and sometimes global climate. Each land cover type has distinct interactions withthe atmosphere that can result in different local meteorological conditions (Mildrexler et al.2011).

Based on The Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) of the Intergovernmental Panel on ClimateChange (IPCC), Assad and Pinto (2008) studied how global warming could modify the currentgeography of agricultural production in Brazil, promoting significant land use change. Thescenarios A2 (that estimates a temperature increase between 2 and 5.4 °C until 2100) and B2(that estimates a temperature increase between 1.4 and 3.8 °C until 2100) were used to projectthe changes, and according to these authors, increases in temperature would enlarge the areaswith climatic risk due the increase in evapotranspiration rates and consequently water deficit tomost crops, especially grains.

According to their study, soybean is the crop that will experience the higher impact with thetemperature rise and the projections show that the Brazilian LPB region will be severely hit. Inthe worst scenario, losses can reach 40 % in 2070 due to the increase of water stress and thepossible impact of more intense drought periods. This crop, which currently has the highestproduction value of Brazilian agriculture and is the main exported product, may present asignificant loss in 2020 promoted by a reduction in low-risk area to its cultivation. Therefore, areduction in soybean production in Brazilian LPB due to climate will negatively affect not onlysoybean exports, but also livestock which is fed with soybean and corn, reducing theexportation of these products with negative impacts on the agribusiness sector. Some regions

Table 3 Variation in livestockproduction in Brazilian LPB be-tween 1996 and 2008

IBGE (www.sidra.ibge.gov.br.Last access: October 3, 2011)

Livestock production in LPB 1996 2008 Variation

(×1,000) (×1,000) %

Cattle 68,730,00 71,313,00 3.76

Swine 11,708,00 16,223,00 38.56

Poultry 340,831,00 641,451,00 88.20

Table 4 Variation in land use in Brazilian LPB between 1996 and 2008

Land Use in LPB 1996 %a 2008 %a Variation

1,000 ha 1,000 ha 1,000 ha

Permanent crops 13,208,36 9.53 14,413,69 10.40 1,205,33

Temporary crops 34,704,21 25.05 44,170,17 31.86 9,465,95

Pastures 58,474,94 42.21 47,580,92 34.32 −10,894,02Natural forests 28,641,37 20.67 29,095,16 20.99 453,79

Planted forests 3,502,70 2.53 3,366,07 2.43 −136,62

IBGE (www.sidra.ibge.gov.br. Last access: October 3, 2011)a percentage of total Brazilian LPB area

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within Brazilian LPB might even become unsuitable for soybean production due to anincreasing risk of droughts, such as in southern Mato Grosso do Sul, western SantaCatarina, Paraná and Rio Grande do Sul.

Maize is produced in most states of Brazilian LPB (Paraná, Mato Grosso, MinasGerais, Rio Grande do Sul, and Goiás) and the projections show that by 2020, thiscrop will cover an area 12 % lower in both scenarios, a number that will rise to 15 %in 2050 and 17 % in 2070. In the other hand, areas within Brazilian LPB thatcurrently have restrictions on sugarcane cultivation can become productive regionswithin 10 to 20 years. Sites that nowadays have high yield potential, should remain aslow risk areas, but will be increasingly dependent on supplementary irrigation in thedry season. Paraná, Santa Catarina and Rio Grande do Sul currently affected by frostsmight become more suitable for sugarcane production (Assad and Pinto 2008).

Although there is a high uncertainty associated to such climate projections andtheir effects on land use, due to the complex feedbacks between climate and landcover, it is open to further investigation to evaluate the extent of the impact of futureclimate on the dynamics of agricultural land use in Brazilian LPB. Therefore, theextent of the land use changes verified in the Brazilian LPB from 1996 to 2008 andtheir possible couplings with regional climate is a strong evidence of the need ofpolicies to guide this dynamics taking into consideration the growing concerns withfood security and climate change. In Brazil, an attempt into this direction has beeninitiated with the National Policy on Climate Change (PNMC). Among its aims isalso the discussion of the actions that should be taken by political bodies and thepublic administration to foster land use systems with minimal emission of greenhousegases (PNMC 2009).

5 Final remarks

The results presented in this study have shown that the intensity of the changes in land usevaried across the Brazilian LPB during the considered time period. Land use can be affected byvery different drivers, and the dynamics of land use change presented in this paper is the resultmainly of the effect of economic ones. However, in a climate-change world this picture canchange significantly in the near future.

Table 5 Brazilian food exports and world demand between 1996 and 2008

Brazil exports 1996 Brazil exports 2008 Increase World demand increase

Tonne Tonne % %

Coffe products 841,544 1,566,921 86.20 35.76

Soybean products 16,240,890 39,103,224 140.77 135.05

Maize products 688,734 6,432,662 833.98 45.61

Sugarcane products 5,422,727 19,472,521 259.09 53.38

Wheat – 645,140 25.11

Beef products 87,650 1,017,859 1061.28 74.09

Swine products 52,994 369,723 597.67 132.62

Poultry products 558,601 3,548,744 535.29 130.83

http://faostat.fao.org. Accessed in July 15, 2013

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Brazil is a major producer of agricultural commodities whose production increased sub-stantially in the last years to supply the increasing demand of the world market (see Table 5).As a result, agriculture in Brazil has expanded over new land areas (but in a much lesser extentwithin the Brazilian LPB) and land use has changed. However, agricultural intensification andthe expansion of monocultures like soybean, maize, sugarcane, and wheat, as well as pine andeucalyptus, have occurred too fast to allow the complete assessment of their impacts not onlyon climate but on the whole environment (soils, water, biodiversity). Although the exportingagribusiness has been responsible for the positive trade balance in the last years, it should notcompromise the long-term agricultural sustainability of the Brazilian LPB, as well as theprovision of important ecosystem services such as carbon sequestration, soil conservation, andregional climate amelioration.

The concern about how climate change will impact agriculture in LPB increased over thelast years, since the food security and the economy of this region can be strongly affected. Asthe study of Assad and Pinto (2008) has shown, climate change might cause a change in thegeography of agricultural production in Brazil, with significant impacts throughout wholeregions, including the Brazilian LPB. And the impacts will not be restricted to the agriculturalproduction itself, but might affect whole production chains and the socio-economic structure ofwhole regions.

Understanding the current dynamics of land use change in the Brazilian LPB may help tocharacterize not only the vulnerability of its agricultural production systems but also tounderstand how this dynamics may affect the future adaptation capacity to climate changeand variability. These aspects must be considered in the learning process for designingadaptation strategies to climate change. Furthermore, considering the complex coupling effectsbetween land cover and climate, the dynamics of land use change is an important aspect in theprojection of future regional LPB climate. As Mildrexler et al. (2011) claim, it is necessary toinclude land use and land cover change in holistic climate change studies, and therefore thestudy presented here might be a contribution into this direction.

Acknowledgments The research leading to these results has received funding from the European Community’sSeventh Framework Programme (FP7/2007-20013) under Grant Agreement n° 212492: CLARIS LPB. AEurope-South America Network for Climate Change Assessment and Impact Studies in La Plata Basin. Theauthors also express their gratitude to Pierre Girard, the editor of this special issue of Climatic Change, as well asto the anonymous reviewers for their helpful comments.

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