July 2011
Threats facing Israel:
1. Demographic issues2. Security: conventional, terrorism, long-range missiles3. Delegitimization
Jewish National
Home
Democracy
TerritoryDemography
The reality in 1937400,000 Jews
Arabs960,000 17%
Of the land of Mandate Palestine
“a conflict between two national movements whose
claims are valid and may not be reconciled… other
than by partition…”
(The royal commission report, 1937)
638,000 Jews1,200,000 Arabs
55%of the land
of Mandate Palestine
The reality in 1947
“…only through the partition can the two conflicting
national aspirations have a real expression”
(The 1947 partition committee report)
700,000 Jews160,000 Arabs
The reality in 1949
78% Of the land Of Mandate Palestine
“The IDF can occupy the entire territory between the Jordan River and the sea. But what kind of a country will we have then, assuming that there are elections and that Dir Yassin is not our policy. We will have a Knesset with an Arab majority. In the trade off between a whole country and a Jewish state, we have chosen the Jewish state”.
David Ben Gurion (Knesset, April, 1949)
Israel78%
West Bank20.7%
Egypt
Syria
Jordan
Lebanon
Land of Israel/Palestine:
Size:28,000 Sq km
Population:Israel:Jews – 5.55 M; Arabs – 1.25 M
West Bank and Gaza Strip:Jews – 0.5 M; Arabs – 4.1
Mediterranean
Sea
Gaza Strip1.3%
201548.6% 80.8%
202543.9%78.3%
205033%77%
The Two-State Solution is the only way
to preserve Israel’s existence as a Jewish & democratic
State
Are 1967 BordersDefensible ?
Can the security of Israelbe maintained
without control of the West Bank?
Defensible borders must be determined by five factors:
1. What is the political scenario? 2. Who is threatening us?3. What is the threat?4. What is Israel's ability?5. What are the alternatives in controlling the area?
The Old Threats:
1. Western front - Egypt 2. Eastern front- Jordan, Syria and Iraq- 10-12 armored & infantry Divisions. 3. Terrorism
Security Responses:1. Strategic depth -West Bank & Sinai Peninsula2. Early warning capability3. Border Patrols
The present-day threats are completely different
Potential Threats in the present and foreseeable future:
1. Long-range missiles & rockets from Iran, Syria, Hezbollah and Hamas. 2. Terrorism3. Palestinian conventional military threat
40 km
40 km
Sharon's containment program since 1977 and its lack of relevance to the new threats
Security arrangements required in the Palestinian State
1. Demilitarization2. Presence of
international forces3. Early warning
stations4. Israeli control of
airspace
Palestine
Israel
Palestine
International & regional arrangements required
1. Regional cooperation mechanisms
2. International arrangements
3. Regional peace agreement
Two-state solution:There is a plan & there is a partner
• Borders: 1967 lines as the basis and territorial exchanges on a 1:1 ratio
• Jerusalem: the division of East Jerusalem between the two capitals
• Refugees: return of refugees to the State of Palestine and an international mechanism for compensation
• Security: the Palestinian State will be demilitarized and all forms of violence must end.
Required T.O.R
Settlers – 85%Area – 6.5%
Israeli proposalin Annapolis (2008)
Settlers – 70%Area – 2%
Palestinian proposalIn Annapolis (2008)
Jerusalem
The Israeli proposalin Annapolis (2008)
JerusalemPalestinian proposal in Annapolis (2008)
The Historical Basin
Palestinian proposal in Annapolis (2008) - a division of sovereignty in accordance with the Clinton proposal
Israeli proposal in Annapolis (2008) – The internationalization of the basin with five members: Israel, Palestine, USA, Jordan and Saudi Arabia
Residence – Palestinian refugees may return to the Palestinian state, remain in their host countries or emigrate to a different consenting state.
Israel proposal in Annapolis (2008) – 1000-5000 each year for 5 yearsPalestinians proposal in Annapolis (2008) – 10,000 each year for 10 yearsCompensation – an international mechanism will manage the financing of treatment and compensation of the refugees issue
Why is it urgent to get an agreement as soon as
possible?
An agreement is necessary before:
• The existing political leadership is replaced• Iran - the destructive power - achieves
nuclear capability• Hamas takes over the PLO• The international community begins to
impose boycotts and sanctions against Israel
• Extreme nationalism takes over Israeli democracy
• A visible increase of anti-Semitism in the world because of Israeli policies
Thank you
You can download the presentation
from the following:wwww.Shaularieli.com
