Hurricanes Last Season and Next
Hurricanes Last Season and Next
Jerry D. Jarrell
Director
National Hurricane Center
Jerry D. Jarrell
Director
National Hurricane Center
OutlineOutline
Brief Review of 1998 Season
Major issues for 1999
1999 Season
Brief Review of 1998 Season
Major issues for 1999
1999 Season
1998 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON
1998 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON
TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
SEASON HIGHLIGHTSSEASON HIGHLIGHTS
• 14 TROPICAL STORMS OF WHICH 10 BECAME HURRICANES
• 3 MAJOR HURRICANES (CAT. 3, CAT. 4, & CAT. 5)
• 10 U.S. LANDFALLS (4 BY GEORGES)
• $ 7.3 BILLION U.S. DAMAGE
• 23 DEATHS IN THE U.S.
• 9684 TOTAL DEATHS (9,000+ IN MITCH)
• 14 TROPICAL STORMS OF WHICH 10 BECAME HURRICANES
• 3 MAJOR HURRICANES (CAT. 3, CAT. 4, & CAT. 5)
• 10 U.S. LANDFALLS (4 BY GEORGES)
• $ 7.3 BILLION U.S. DAMAGE
• 23 DEATHS IN THE U.S.
• 9684 TOTAL DEATHS (9,000+ IN MITCH)
SEASON HIGHLIGHTSSEASON HIGHLIGHTS
• MITCH WAS THE FOURTH MOST INTENSE HURRICANE EVER OBSERVED IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN, AND THE STRONGEST EVER OBSERVED IN OCTOBER
• ON 25 SEP. FOUR HURRICANES WERE IN PROGRESS AT ONCE-- THE FIRST TIME SINCE 1893
• MITCH WAS THE FOURTH MOST INTENSE HURRICANE EVER OBSERVED IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN, AND THE STRONGEST EVER OBSERVED IN OCTOBER
• ON 25 SEP. FOUR HURRICANES WERE IN PROGRESS AT ONCE-- THE FIRST TIME SINCE 1893
SEASON HIGHLIGHTSSEASON HIGHLIGHTS
• IN A REMARKABLE SPAN OF 35 DAYS…FROM 8/19 TO 9/23…TEN NAMED TROPICAL CYCLONES FORMED
• THE FOUR-YEAR PERIOD OF 1995-1998 FEATURED A RECORD NUMBER OF HURRICANES (33)
• IN A REMARKABLE SPAN OF 35 DAYS…FROM 8/19 TO 9/23…TEN NAMED TROPICAL CYCLONES FORMED
• THE FOUR-YEAR PERIOD OF 1995-1998 FEATURED A RECORD NUMBER OF HURRICANES (33)
Issues for 1999 (and beyond)Issues for 1999 (and beyond)
Winds at Elevations
Inland Flooding
A US Catastrophe? 2 Scenarios
Memory of History
Winds at Elevations
Inland Flooding
A US Catastrophe? 2 Scenarios
Memory of History
Disaster Resistant Homes
Human Impact Scale
Warning Lead Times
Climate & Season Forecasts
Disaster Resistant Homes
Human Impact Scale
Warning Lead Times
Climate & Season Forecasts
Winds are Stronger Just above the Surface
Winds are Stronger Just above the Surface
Implications for
High Rise Buildings
High Terrain
Implications for
High Rise Buildings
High Terrain
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150
Hurricane Georges - EyewallGPS Dropsonde Wind Profiles
19 September 1998
1918 UTC1959 UTC
Hei
ght (
ft)
Wind Speed (kt)
Is the new big Hurricane Killing Agent Inland
Flooding?
Is the new big Hurricane Killing Agent Inland
Flooding?
Can We Forget about Storm Surge?
Can We Forget about Storm Surge?
Drow ned
Wind
Tornado
Other
Drowning Deaths by County
Inland county
Coastal county
Offshore
0 50 100 150
Agnes 72
Alberto 94
Amelia 78
Celia 70
Andrew 92
Fran 96
Hugo 89
Alicia 83
Chantal 89
Charley 98
Hu
rric
ane
Drowning Deaths by Location
Freshwater
Shoreline
Offshore
Storm Surge
Deaths
Deadliest TCs Since Camille ‘69
US TC Deaths by Cause
Can the USA still have a Catastrophic Hurricane
Event?
Can the USA still have a Catastrophic Hurricane
Event?
Most likely Scenario(s)Most likely Scenario(s)
U.S. Coastline
Phase 1: Traffic jam
Phase 2: Accident or other incident
Phase 3: The Hurricane
U.S. Coastline
Phase 1: Traffic jam
Phase 2: Accident or other incident
Phase 3: The Hurricane
Catastrophe Scenario 1.Catastrophe Scenario 1.
Hurricane Betsy, 1965, US 1 in the Florida KeysHurricane Betsy, 1965, US 1 in the Florida Keys
The Key West ProblemThe Key West Problem
Catastrophe Scenario 2. Catastrophe Scenario 2.
Phase 1. Adequacy of Escape Routes Questioned
Phase 2. No Action to Fix Escape Routes
Phase 3. Fear Diminishes Evacuation
Phase 4. The Hurricane Storm Surge
AP Photo
FLEEING HURRICANEGEORGES IN KEY WEST
People Confuse Memory and History
People Confuse Memory and History
We Act not on History, but on Our Perception of History
We Act not on History, but on Our Perception of History
Saffir-Simpson Categories of Hurricane Strikes
Saffir-Simpson Categories of Hurricane Strikes
CHATHAM COUNTY, GA
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 EXPPOP
1 22 22,DAVID
CHATHAM COUNTY, GA
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 EXPPOP
1 22 22,DAVID
Chatham County, Georgia, 20 Years into Last CenturyChatham County, Georgia, 20 Years into Last Century
Disaster Resistant HomesDisaster Resistant Homes
What is it?
Information?
Are We Moving in the Right Direction?
What is it?
Information?
Are We Moving in the Right Direction?
Disaster Resistant Demonstration Home
off I-95, Deerfield Beach, Florida
Disaster Resistant Demonstration Home
off I-95, Deerfield Beach, Florida
The Human Impact ModelThe Human Impact Model
Saffir- Simpson Scale:
A Success Story
Saffir- Simpson Scale:
A Success Story
Human Impact Model
Meteorology
Demographics
Geology
Preparedness
Infrastructure
Building Codes
Zoning
Communications
etc.
CasualtiesDisplacedHomelessDestroyed/Damaged: Buildings Bridges Hospitals
The Emergency Management Community needs Longer
Lead Times for Preparation:
We are Trying to Issue Hurricane Warnings Earlier
The Emergency Management Community needs Longer
Lead Times for Preparation:
We are Trying to Issue Hurricane Warnings Earlier
0
10
20
30
40
506
/1/6
7
6/1
/71
6/1
/75
6/1
/79
6/1
/83
6/1
/87
6/1
/91
6/1
/95
Lea
d T
ime
(hr)
Hurricane Warnings
Is Climate Changing?
What about 1999?
Is Climate Changing?
What about 1999?
5-yr Running Average Number of Hurricanes
02468
101
89
0
19
00
19
10
19
20
19
30
19
40
19
50
19
60
19
70
19
80
19
90
25-yr Running Average Number of Hurricanes
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
1910
1920
1930
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
1999 Forecast:
Hurricane Season
1 June to 30 November
Be Prepared!
1999 Forecast:
Hurricane Season
1 June to 30 November
Be Prepared!
