CMP 1974.00
Target Price 2171.00
ISIN: INE158A01026
JANUARY 31st
2014
HERO MOTOCORP LIMITED Result Update: Q3 FY14
BUYBUYBUYBUY
Index Details
Stock Data
Sector Automobiles
BSE Code 500182
Face Value 2.00
52wk. High / Low (Rs.) 2214.70/1434.05
Volume (2wk. Avg.) 26000
Market Cap (Rs. in mn.) 394207.80
Annual Estimated Results (A*: Actual / E*: Estimated)
YEARS FY13A FY14E FY15E
Net Sales 237681.10 255017.54 270318.60
EBITDA 36828.60 40257.28 42625.77
Net Profit 21181.60 21360.78 23630.72
EPS 106.07 106.96 118.33
P/E 18.61 18.45 16.68
Shareholding Pattern (%)
1 Year Comparative Graph
HERO MOTOCORP LTD S&P BSE SENSEX
SYNOPSIS
Hero MotoCorp Ltd (HMCL) is the world’s largest
manufacturer of two-wheelers based in India.
During the quarter, the net profit of the Company is
increased by 7.54% to Rs. 5246.60 million from Rs.
4878.90 million in Q3 FY13.
Revenue for the quarter rose by 11.14% to Rs.
68767.80 million from Rs. 61876.20 million, when
compared with the prior year period.
During the period January-December 2013, the
Company has sold record 61,83,784 units of two-
wheelers compared to 61,20,259 units of two-
wheelers sold in calendar year 2012.
During the quarter, Hero MotoCorp has set up a
Joint Venture Company (JVC) i.e. HMC Auto Ltd with
Magneti Marelli S.p.A.
HMCL plans to have presence in 20 new markets by
March’14 with at least four operations globally.
The Company will finalize a Joint Venture agreement
for Colombia within the first three months of 2014
The company has launched new 250-cc sports Bike
‘HX250R’, the break-through Liquid-cooled Turbo
charged Diesel concept Bike ‘RNT’, India’s first
series hybrid scooter ‘LEAP’ and 110cc scooter
‘Dash’.
The company has started dispatching vehicles to
other new markets such as Tanzania, Uganda,
Burundi, Egypt, Ecuador, and Bangladesh.
Net Sales of the company are expected to grow at a
CAGR of 5% over 2012 to 2015E respectively.
PEER GROUPS CMP MARKET CAP EPS P/E (X) P/BV(X) DIVIDEND
Company Name (Rs.) Rs. in mn. (Rs.) Ratio Ratio (%)
Hero Motocorp Ltd 1974.00 394207.80 106.07 18.61 7.87 3000.00
Bajaj Auto Ltd 1902.80 552112.30 112.15 17.01 6.99 450.00
TVS Motor Company ltd 77.50 36819.30 3.72 20.83 3.01 120.00
Eicher Motors Ltd 4643.50 125555.10 90.90 51.08 19.96 200.00
Recommendation & Analysis - ‘BUY’
With sales of 16,80,940 two-wheelers in Q3 FY14, the company registered a total turnover of Rs. 68767.80 mn
and net profit after tax (PAT) of Rs 5246.60 mn, registered a growth of 11% and 7% respectively, compared to
the corresponding quarter of previous year. EBIDTA margin for the third quarter of this financial year stood at
13.06%. During the quarter, the EBIDTA has been affected due to partial recovery of rising metal costs and
currency fluctuation.
The cumulative sales for first three quarter of the year (April-Dec’13) stands at 46,56,498 two-wheelers. The
company registered a total turnover of Rs. 187625.10 mn and PAT of Rs. 15546.50 mn in this period. During the
period January-December 2013, the Company has sold record 61,83,784 units of two-wheelers compared to
61,20,259 units of two-wheelers sold in calendar year 2012.
The company has started dispatching vehicles to other new markets such as Tanzania, Uganda, Burundi, Egypt,
Ecuador, and Bangladesh. In Tanzania and Uganda, HMCL will have local assemblies. The Company plans to have
presence in 20 new markets by March’14 with at least four operations globally. The Company will finalize a Joint
Venture agreement for Colombia within the first three months of 2014. It is preparing to set p a manufacturing
unit in Colombia to cater to the Latin American markets in the first quarter of 2014. Hence, we recommend
‘BUY’ for ‘HERO MOROCORP LTD’ with a target price of Rs. 2171.00 on the stock.
QUARTERLY HIGHLIGHTS (STANDALONE)
Results updates- Q3 FY14,
Hero MotoCorp Ltd. (Formerly Hero Honda Motors
Ltd.) is the world's largest manufacturer of two -
wheelers, based in India, reported its financial
results for the quarter ended 31st Dec, 2013.
Months Dec-13 Dec-12 % Change
Net Sales 68767.80 61876.20 11.14
PAT 5246.60 4878.90 7.54
EPS 26.27 24.43 7.54
EBITDA 9936.50 8687.50 14.38
The company’s net profit jumps to Rs. 5246.60 million against Rs. 4878.90 million in the corresponding quarter
ending of previous year, an increase of 7.54%. Revenue for the quarter rose by 11.14% to Rs. 68767.80 million
from Rs. 61876.20 million, when compared with the prior year period. Reported earnings per share of the
company stood at Rs. 26.27 a share during the quarter, registering 7.54% increase over previous year period.
Profit before interest, depreciation and tax is Rs. 9936.50 millions as against Rs. 8687.50 millions in the
corresponding period of the previous year.
Break up of Expenditure
Break up of Expenditure
Rs. In Millions
Q3 FY14 Q3 FY13
Cost of Material Consumed 49786.70 44015.70
Other Expenditure 7360.10 6253.30
Employee Benefit Expenses 2438.60 1982.40
Depreciation & Amortization Expense
2732.40 2832.30
Total Expenditure 62520.50 56922.00
A NEW vision for a NEW Hero
With HMCL fast augmenting its presence globally and further strengthening its leadership in the domestic
market, the company unveiled a global vision for brand ‘Hero’- to be achieved by year 2020:
• Surpass 100 million units in cumulative production
• Annual bike and scooter sales of 12 million
• More than 20 manufacturing and assembly plants across the globe
• Sales in more than 50 countries
• Turnover of Rs 60,000 crore
Latest Updates
• During the quarter, Hero MotoCorp Limited has set up a Joint Venture Company (JVC) i.e. HMC Auto Ltd with
Magneti Marelli S.p.A and has initially invested approx. Rs. 18 million as part of capital contribution in the
JVC.
• During the period January-December 2013, the Company has sold record 61,83,784 units of two-wheelers
compared to 61,20,259 units of two-wheelers sold in calendar year 2012.
• The company has launched new 250-cc sports bike ‘HX250R’, the break-through Liquid-cooled Turbo
charged Diesel concept bike ‘RNT’, India’s first series hybrid scooter ‘LEAP’ and 110cc scooter ‘Dash’.
• Showcased next-gen features to be introduced in its new product line-up:
� i3S Technology (Idle Stop & Start System) to debut on all new Splendor iSmart
� Integrated Braking System (IBS) to be introduced in the all-new Pleasure
� Electronic Immobilizer to debut on the new 150cc Xtreme
Global Foray
• The company has started dispatching vehicles to other new markets such as Tanzania, Uganda, Burundi,
Egypt, Ecuador, and Bangladesh. In Tanzania and Uganda, HMCL will have local assemblies.
• HMCL plans to have presence in 20 new markets by March’14 with at least four operations globally.
• The Company will finalize a Joint Venture agreement for Colombia within the first three months of 2014. It is
preparing to set p a manufacturing unit in Colombia to cater to the Latin American markets in the first
quarter of 2014.
Investments
� Hero MotoCorp’s newly-incorporated wholly-owned American subsidiary - HMCL (NA).
Hero MotoCorp is investing US$25 million for a total stake of 49.2% in the share capital of Erik Buell Racing
(EBR). The first tranche of US$15 million has already been invested by HMCL. The second tranche of US$10
million is proposed to be invested within the next nine months. The equity partnership with EBR is reflective
of its long-term vision of transforming Hero MotoCorp to a truly global two-wheeler major with footprints
spread across continents, offering a wide range of technologically-advanced two-wheelers.
� Hero MotoCorp recently launched its own retail finance arm, Hero FinCorp, with a phase-wise expansion
plan. Having been launched in Delhi, the retail financing services will shortly be extended to the National
Capital Region and then to the rest of the northern market in the next phase. The initial plan is to make Hero
FinCorp services available at about 200 dealerships in various parts of the country by March 2014, and
extend it to as many as 450 dealerships by March 2015.
� HMCL recently commenced construction of its Rs 450 Crore “Hero Centre of Global Innovation and Research
& Design (R&D)” at Kukas, Jaipur in Rajasthan.
� Hero MotoCorp Ltd is setting up two new plants at Neemrana, Rajasthan and Gujarat and it has integrated a
R&D Centre at Kukas, Jaipur with an investment of Rs. 2500 crore.
Expansion
• Setting up a fourth plant at Neemrana in Rajasthan with an annual installed capacity of 750,000 units.
• Setting up a fifth plant at Halol in Gujarat, with an annual installed capacity of 1.2 million in the initial phase,
which will grow to 1.8 million in the next phase.
• Setting up a new state-of-the-art integrated R&D centre at Kukas, Rajasthan.
• Consistent expansion across all three existing plants.
• Setting up a Global Parts Centre (GPC) at Neemrana, Rajasthan.
COMPANY PROFILE
Hero MotoCorp Ltd. (Formerly Hero Honda Motors Ltd.) is the world's largest manufacturer of two - wheelers,
based in India.
HMCL offer one of the widest ranges of two wheelers with over 19 different products across the 100 cc, 125 cc,
150 cc, 225 cc and scooter categories. Hero MotoCorp Limited manufactures and sells motorized two-wheelers
and spare parts, as well as provides related services in India. The company provides motorcycles and scooters.
In 2001, the company achieved the coveted position of being the largest two-wheeler manufacturing company
in India and also, the 'World No.1' two-wheeler company in terms of unit volume sales in 2001. Hero MotoCorp
Ltd. Hero MotoCorp's key strategies are to build a robust product portfolio across categories, explore growth
opportunities globally, continuously improve its operational efficiency, aggressively expand its each to
customers, continue to invest in brand building activities and ensure customer and shareholder delight. Hero
MotoCorp Ltd certified with ISO-14001 by DNV Holland in 1991.
Manufacturing
Two of its manufacturing plants are based at Gurgaon and Dharuhera in Haryana (India) and one manufacturing
plant is located at Haridwar, Uttarakhand (India). The combined annual installed capacity is approx. 6.90 million
units.
Product range
Hero MotoCorp offers wide range of two wheeler products that include motorcycles and scooters, and has set the
industry standards across all the market segments.
• CD Dawn
• CD Deluxe
• Pleasure
• Splendor +
• Splendor NXG
• Passion PRO
• Passion Plus
• Super Splendor
• Splendor PRO
• Glamour
• Glamour PGM FI
• Achiever
• CBZ Xtreme
• Hunk
• Karizma
• Karizma ZM
Brand
The new Hero is rising and is poised to shine on the global arena. Company's new identity "Hero MotoCorp Ltd."
is truly reflective of its vision to strengthen focus on mobility and technology and creating global footprint.
Building and promoting new brand identity will be central to all its initiatives, utilizing every opportunity and
leveraging its strong presence across sports, entertainment and ground- level activation.
FINANCIAL HIGHLIGHT (STANDALONE) (A*- Actual, E* -Estimations & Rs. In Millions)
Balance Sheet as at March31, 2012 -2015E
HERO MOTOCORP LTD. FY12A FY13A FY14E FY15E
SOURCES OF FUNDS (Rs.in.mn)
Shareholder's Funds
Share Capital 399.40 399.40 399.40 399.40
Reserves and Surplus 42498.90 49663.00 65555.16 78666.19
1. Sub Total - Net worth 42898.30 50062.40 65954.56 79065.59
Non Current Liabilities
Long Term Borrowing 10113.90 3021.60 543.89 576.52
Deferred Tax Liabilities 2082.60 1324.10 1006.32 825.18
Long Term Provisions 380.00 301.60 355.89 391.48
2. Sub Total - Non Current Liabilities 12576.50 4647.30 1906.09 1793.18
Current Liabilities
Trade Payables 22931.70 18733.40 23229.42 20338.91
Other Current Liabilities 9962.00 8876.40 15426.80 16660.94
Short Term Provisions 10520.70 14097.00 1060.60 1145.45
3. Sub Total - Current Liabilities 43414.40 41706.80 39716.82 38145.30
Total Liabilities (1+2+3) 98889.20 96416.50 107577.47 119004.07
APPLICATION OF FUNDS
Non-Current Assets
Fixed Assets
Tangible assets 17431.40 18917.60 19768.89 20955.03
Intangible assets 20423.70 11792.20 12145.97 12753.26
Capital Work in Progress 388.40 620.90 682.99 737.63
a) Sub Total - Fixed Assets 38243.50 31330.70 32597.85 34445.92
b) Non- Current Investments 6739.60 6144.70 5407.34 5623.63
c) Long Term loans and advances 5336.40 7800.60 7332.56 7699.19
d) Other non-current assets 260.10 364.40 477.36 572.84
1. Sub Total - Non Current Assets 50579.60 45640.40 45815.11 48341.58
Current Assets
Current Investment 32903.00 30093.60 34908.58 38748.52
Inventories 6755.70 6367.60 7004.36 7564.71
Trade receivables 2723.10 6650.00 9576.00 11970.00
Cash and Bank Balances 768.20 1810.40 2679.39 3295.65
Short-terms loans & advances 4756.00 5535.50 7228.77 8674.52
Other current assets 403.60 319.00 365.26 409.09
2. Sub Total - Current Assets 48309.60 50776.10 61762.35 70662.49
Total Assets (1+2) 98889.20 96416.50 107577.47 119004.07
Annual Profit & Loss Statement for the period of 2012 to 2015E
Value(Rs.in.mn) FY12A FY13A FY14E FY15E
Description 12m 12m 12m 12m
Net Sales 235790.30 237681.10 255017.54 270318.60
Other Income 3645.70 3983.80 4296.05 4510.85
Total Income 239436.00 241664.90 259313.59 274829.45
Expenditure -199602.50 -204836.30 -219056.31 -232203.67
Operating Profit 39833.50 36828.60 40257.28 42625.77
Interest -213.00 -119.10 -119.59 -125.57
Gross profit 39620.50 36709.50 40137.69 42500.20
Depreciation -10973.40 -11417.50 -10968.40 -11407.14
Profit Before Tax 28647.10 25292.00 29169.28 31093.06
Tax -4865.80 -4110.40 -7808.50 -7462.33
Net Profit 23781.30 21181.60 21360.78 23630.72
Equity capital 399.40 399.40 399.40 399.40
Reserves 42498.90 49663.00 65555.16 78666.19
Face value 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00
EPS 119.09 106.07 106.96 118.33
Quarterly Profit & Loss Statement for the period of 30th June, 2013 to 31st March, 2014E
Value(Rs.in.mn) 30-Jun-13 30-Sep-13 31-Dec-13 31-Mar-14E
Description 3m 3m 3m 3m
Net sales 61595.20 57262.10 68767.80 67392.44
Other income 1122.60 1154.60 956.80 1062.05
Total Income 62717.80 58416.70 69724.60 68454.49
Expenditure -52443.00 -48935.10 -59788.10 -57890.11
Operating profit 10274.80 9481.60 9936.50 10564.38
Interest -29.50 -29.60 -29.80 -30.69
Gross profit 10245.30 9452.00 9906.70 10533.69
Depreciation -2743.80 -2869.10 -2732.40 -2623.10
Profit Before Tax 7501.50 6582.90 7174.30 7910.58
Tax -2015.70 -1768.80 -1927.70 -2096.30
Net Profit 5485.80 4814.10 5246.60 5814.28
Equity capital 399.40 399.40 399.40 399.40
Face value 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00
EPS 27.47 24.11 26.27 29.12
Ratio Analysis
Particulars FY12A FY13A FY14E FY15E
EPS (Rs.) 119.09 106.07 106.96 118.33
EBITDA Margin (%) 16.89% 15.49% 15.79% 15.77%
PBT Margin (%) 12.15% 10.64% 11.44% 11.50%
PAT Margin (%) 10.09% 8.91% 8.38% 8.74%
P/E Ratio (x) 16.58 18.61 18.45 16.68
ROE (%) 55.44% 42.31% 32.39% 29.89%
ROCE (%) 95.84% 90.89% 77.03% 67.84%
Debt Equity Ratio 0.24 0.06 0.01 0.01
EV/EBITDA (x) 10.13 10.74 9.74 9.18
Book Value (Rs.) 214.81 250.69 330.27 395.92
P/BV 9.19 7.87 5.98 4.99
Charts
OUTLOOK AND CONCLUSION
� At the current market price of Rs.1974.00, the stock P/E ratio is at 18.45 x FY14E and 16.68 x FY15E
respectively.
� Earning per share (EPS) of the company for the earnings for FY14E and FY15E is seen at Rs.106.96 and
Rs.118.33 respectively.
� Net Sales of the company are expected to grow at a CAGR of 5% over 2012 to 2015E respectively.
� On the basis of EV/EBITDA, the stock trades at 9.74 x for FY14E and 9.18 x for FY15E.
� Price to Book Value of the stock is expected to be at 5.98 x and 4.99 x respectively for FY14E and FY15E.
� We recommend ‘BUY’ in this particular scrip with a target price of Rs.2171.00 for Medium to Long term
investment.
INDUSTRY OVERVIEW
India represents one of the world’s largest automobile industries. Easy availability of finance and rising income
levels are encouraging the middle class population to upgrade their two wheelers to a car. Besides, the growing
organised used car market has also been a positive growth factor in the used car market of the country. Driven by
the above factors, the used cars market is anticipated to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 16
per cent during 2013–17.
India is quietly becoming a production hub of high-end vehicles meant for export to China. The US-based
motorbike maker Harley Davidson, Austrian motorcycle manufacturer KTM and Mahindra & Mahindra have also
preferred to set up manufacturing facilities in India than in the relatively low-cost China and export the output.
Furthermore, India is set to become Mercedes Benz’s fastest-growing market worldwide ahead of China, the US
and Europe, according to internal projections.
Key Statistics
The passenger vehicles production in India touched 3.23 million units in 2012–13 and is expected to reach 10
million units by 2020–21. The industry is estimated to grow at a CAGR of 13 per cent during 2012–2021. In
addition, the industry recorded exports worth US$ 9.3 billion in 2012–13 and is projected to touch US$ 30 billion
by 2020–21, according to Automotive Component Manufacturers’ Association (ACMA).
The cumulative foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows into the Indian automobile industry during April 2000 to
October 2013 was recorded at US$ 9,079 million, amounting to 4 per cent of the total FDI inflows (in terms of
US$), according to Department of Industrial Policy and Promotion (DIPP), Ministry of Commerce, Government of
India.
India is also expected to emerge as a centre for producing compact superbikes as Indian customer’s progress to
the next level of biking. Several global and Indian bike makers plan to utilise India's mass-production base of 16
million two-wheelers to roll out sports bikes in the 250 cc capacity.
More so, the demand for premium sports utility vehicles (SUVs) will continue to grow. The market size of
premium SUVs was estimated to be around 25,000 units annually in India.
Major Developments & Investments
• Tata Motors Ltd plans to invest about £30 million (US$ 49.17 million) in the National Automotive
Innovation Campus (NAIC) for research and development (R&D). The investment would be made through
its subsidiary Tata Motors European Technical Centre (TMETC) at the University of Warwick campus, UK.
• Volvo India Pvt Ltd plans to set up truck and bus manufacturing facility in Malur, Karnataka, with an
investment of Rs 974 crore (US$ 158.32 million). The facility is expected to give employment to about
2,125 people.
• Manufacturing companies in Japan continue to view India as the top destination for investments—over
China, Thailand, Vietnam, Brazil and Indonesia—in the next three years, according to Mr Masanori
Nakano, Consul General of Japan in Chennai.
• Tata Motors-owned Jaguar Land Rover (JLR) has entered into an agreement with the state of Rio de
Janeiro to build a manufacturing plant in Brazil with an investment of Rs 4,626 crore (US$ 751.95
million).
• JBM Auto has formed a joint venture (JV) with Italian bus maker BredaMenarinibus to manufacture
luxury buses in India. The Indo–Italian venture plans to set up a plant at Kosi, near Faridabad in Haryana,
and produce 2,000 buses every year initially, at an investment of Rs 500 crore (US$ 81.27 million).
• Mahindra & Mahindra (M&M) plans to develop the world's first hybrid technology that can be deployed
in vehicles with manual transmission and enhance fuel efficiency by almost 20 per cent.
• Amtek Auto has signed an agreement to buy Germany-based Kuepper Group of companies for about
€200 million (US$ 272.73 million) in its second big European acquisition in 2013.
• Honda Cars India will use the Ennore Port to export cars to South Africa. The infrastructure for car
exports at Ennore Port is attractive and cost effective.
Government Initiatives
The Government of India plans to introduce fuel-efficiency ratings for automobiles to encourage sale of cars that
consume less petrol or diesel, according to Union Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas, Government of India.
The Union Budget 2013–14 added some incentives to the industry.
• The period of concession available for specified part of electric and hybrid vehicles till April 2013 has
been extended up to March 31, 2015.
• The basic customs duty (BCD) on imported luxury goods such as high-end motor vehicles, motor cycles,
yachts and similar vessels was increased. The duty was raised from 75 per cent to 100 per cent on
cars/motor vehicles (irrespective of engine capacity) with CIF value more than US$ 40,000; from 60 per
cent to 75 per cent on motorcycles with engine capacity of 800 cc or more and on yachts and similar
vessels from 10 per cent to 25 per cent.
• In addition, an increase in excise duty from 27 to 30 per cent has been allowed for SUVs with engine
capacity exceeding 1,500 cc, while excise duty was decreased from 80 to 72 per cent, in case of SUVs
registered solely to be used for taxi purposes.
• An exemption from BCD will be provided to lithium ion automotive battery for manufacture of lithium
ion battery packs for supply to manufacturers of hybrid and electric vehicles.
• The excise duty on chassis of diesel motor vehicles for transport of goods reduced from 14 per cent to 13
per cent.
The Government of India allows 100 per cent FDI in the automotive industry through automatic route.
Road Ahead
The vision of Automotive Mission Plan (AMP) 2006–2016 expects India, “to emerge as the destination of choice
in the world for design and manufacture of automobiles and auto components with output reaching a level of US$
145 billion; accounting for more than 10 per cent of the gross domestic product (GDP) and providing additional
employment to 25 million people by 2016.”
With special focus on exports of small cars, multi-utility vehicles (MUVs), two and three wheelers and auto
components; the automotive sector’s contribution to the GDP is expected to double reaching a turnover worth
US$ 145 billion in 2016, according to the AMP 2006–2016.
Disclaimer:
This document prepared by our research analysts does not constitute an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale
of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. The information contained herein is
from publicly available data or other sources believed to be reliable but do not represent that it is accurate or
complete and it should not be relied on as such. Firstcall India Equity Advisors Pvt. Ltd. or any of it’s affiliates shall
not be in any way responsible for any loss or damage that may arise to any person from any inadvertent error in the
information contained in this report. This document is provide for assistance only and is not intended to be and must
not alone be taken as the basis for an investment decision.
Firstcall India Equity Research: Email – [email protected]
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