Global livestock trends – the past may not always predict the future
John McDermottDeputy Director General - Research
United States National Academy of SciencesBoard of Agriculture and Natural Resources MeetingMay 12, 2010
Global Livestock Trends and shaping the future
1. Global trends in meat and milk
2. Main drivers of demand and supply
3. Livestock and their implications for greenhouse gases
4. What might change in future?
5. Future choices
Global Livestock Trends and shaping the future
1. Global trends in meat and milk
2. Main drivers of demand and supply
3. Livestock and their implications for greenhouse gases
4. What might change in future?
5. Future choices
Global Meat Trends 1990-2009 Production and Trade
Global Milk Trends 1981-2018 Production
As people get richer they consume more animal products
Steinfeld et al 2006
1962 1970 1980 1990 2000 2003
Consumption Kg/person/year
Cereals 132 145 159 170 161 156
Roots and tubers 18 19 17 14 15 15
Starchy roots 70 73 63 53 61 61
Meat 10 11 14 19 27 29
Milk 28 29 34 38 45 48
Consumption of livestock products in the developing World is projected to increase even faster
IAASTD 2007
Revised demand for livestock products to 2050
Rosegrant et al 2009
Annual per capita consumption
Total consumption
year Meat (kg) Milk (kg) Meat (Mt) Milk (Mt)
Developing 20022050
2844
4478
137326
222585
Developed 20022050
7894
202216
102126
265295
Smallholders predominate and 80% population are “farmers”
Livestock products contribute to 17% of the global kilocalorie consumption and 33% of the protein consumption (FAOSTAT 2008)
Livestock provide food for at least 830 million food insecure people (Gerber et al 2007)
Significant global differences in kilocalorie consumption but… highest rates of increase in consumption of livestock products in the developing World.
Europe - 2000
10%
11%
5%
31%5%
1%
37%
Meat
Dairy
Fruit & Vegetables
Cereals
Roots & Tubers
Dryland crops
Others
Livestock and livelihoods
SSA - 2000
3%
3%
4%
47%16%
3%
24%Meat
Dairy
Fruit & Vegetables
Cereals
Roots & Tubers
Dryland crops
Others
Herrero et al 2008a
Global Livestock Trends and shaping the future
1. Global trends in meat and milk
2. Main drivers of demand and supply
3. Livestock and their implications for greenhouse gases
4. What might change in future?
5. Future choices
Population Growth in Developing and Industrialized Countries: 1750 - 2050
12
A strong increase in demand for meat and milk as income grows
0
1
2
3
4
5
4 5 6 7 8 9 11Log per capita GNP
Log
per
cap
ita
con
sum
pti
on
of
meat
Livestock to 2020: The Next Food Revolution, a joint IFPRI, FAO, ILRI study.
10
China
India
Trend
The Livestock Revolution:
Rates of production of animal products increase at significantly faster rates….
Annual rates of change - beef production 2000-2030
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
CSA EA SA SEA SSA WANA Total
%
AgroPastoral Mixed Extensive Mixed Intensive Other Developed countries
Annual rates of change - milk production 2000-2030
0123456789
CSA EA SA SEA SSA WANA Total
%
AgroPastoral Mixed Extensive Mixed Intensive Other Developed countries
Increased consumptionIncreased incomes
…but increased pressure on resources (land, feeds, etc)
Growing industrialisation….
The Livestock Revolution: The Livestock Revolution: Growth in meat mainly in Growth in meat mainly in
industrial systemsindustrial systems
Livestock to 2020: The Next Food Revolution, a joint IFPRI, FAO, ILRI study.
Growth Rates (%/Y) of Meat Production in Different Production Systems in Developing Countries
-5%0%5%
10%15%20%
Asia SSA WANA CSA
grazing systems
mixed systems
industrial systems
Over the past twenty-five years developing countries contributed nearly three-quarters of global consumption gains for both meat and dairy
.....in dairy 80% of production increase came from smallholders
Global Milk Trends 1981-2018 Production
When it was all holding together…
Wood et al. 2005
…it might still do…but we need to target appropriate investments and ‘do the right thing’
The feed grain challenge
17
Coarse Grain Area
Coarse Grain Feed
Meat Production
Meat production growth, mainly pigs and poultry, exceeds feed growth raisingquestions about long term sustainability of feed supplies.
Index: 1980-1990=1
ETHANOL PRODUCTION BIODIESEL PRODUCTION
Mostly from grain feedstocks – except for Brazil Source: USDA Agricultural Projections to 2017
Millions of gallons
Millions of gallons
Real world cereal prices projected to rise 30-40 percent Real world cereal prices projected to rise 30-40 percent beyond current high levels (IMPACT model)beyond current high levels (IMPACT model)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Pri
ce
(U
S$
/mt)
Rice Wheat Maize Other grain Soybean
CerealsCereals
Source: IFPRI
Real world meat prices projected to rise 20-30 percent beyond Real world meat prices projected to rise 20-30 percent beyond current high levels (IMPACT model)current high levels (IMPACT model)
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Pri
ce
(U
S$
/mt)
Beef Pork Lamb Poultry
MeatMeat
Source: IFPRI
Increasing land and water constraints (WDR, 2008)
LACECA
MENA
EAP
SA
SSA
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
1961
1967
1973
1979
1985
1991
1997
2003
Inde
x of
cro
plan
d pe
r ag
pop
ulat
ion
(196
1=10
0)
-
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
SSA SA EAP MENA ECA LAC
Perc
ent
(%)
% of population in absolute water scarcity
Cropland per capita of agricultural population
Rates of cereal production due to water and other constraints in places
Annual changes in Cereal Production2000 - 2030
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
CSA EA SA SEA SSA WANA Total
%
AgroPastoral Mixed Extensive Mixed Intensive Other Developed countries
Rates of growth of mixed intensive similar to developed countriesCatching up
Rates lower than those of population growth
W. Africa 1966 – pastoral system 2004 – crop-livestock system
An example of the changing nature of livestock systems
Courtesy of B. Gerard
… and then there’s climate change
Thornton et al 2006
Global Livestock Trends and shaping the future
1. Global trends in meat and milk
2. Main drivers of demand and supply
3. Livestock and their implications for greenhouse gases
4. What might change in future?
5. Future choices
Production fertilisants N
Energie fossile ferme
Déforestation
Sol cultivé
Désertification pâturages
Transformation
Transport
Fermentation ruminale
Effluents, stockage/traitement
Epandage fertilisants N
Production légumineuses
Effluents, stockage/traitement
Effluents, épandage/dépôt
Effluents, emission indirecte
CO2
CH4
N2O
Deforestation
Enteric
fermentation
Man
ure
mgt
Chemical N. fert. production
On-farm fossil fuel
Deforestation
OM release from ag. soils
Pasture degradation
Processing fossil fuel
Transport fossil fuel
Enteric fermentation
Manure storage / processing
N fertilization
Legume production
Manure storage / processing
Manure spreading / dropping
Manu indirect emissions
Livestock and GHG: 18%? of global emissions
Prepared by Bonneau, 2008
Mitigation and adaptation in livestock systems
Herrero et al 2009
Adaptation and mitigation have to go hand in hand……. to generate win/win solutions, especially for poor countries with low carbon footprints
Significant adaptation needs as systems change to meet demand for livestock products and/or become more resilient to climate change
Significant mitigation in livestock systems required for meeting future increased demand for livestock products, both in production and processing, under carbon-constrained markets (real costing of externalities for rich and BRIC countries)
Mitigation options
Reducing emissions: significant potential!
Managing demand for animal products (C-taxes) Improvements in ruminant production – large
production gaps for ruminants in developing world Reduction of animal numbers; shift in animal species Reduced livestock-induced deforestation, moving
animals from wetter to drier areas Feed additives to reduce enteric fermentation Manure management (feed additives, methane
production, regulations for manure disposal)Herrero and Thornton 2009, Herrero et al. 2009
Global Livestock Trends and shaping the future
1. Global trends in meat and milk
2. Main drivers of demand and supply
3. Livestock and their implications for greenhouse gases
4. What might change in future?
5. Future choices
What might change in future?
1. Dramatic change in relative prices of grain to meat (ruminants versus monogastrics)
2. High values placed on environmental and / or social (equity) externalities Favor poor versus richer countries Favor dry versus wetter areas
3. Consolidation and foreign direct investment in agriculture in Africa (“land grab”)
4. Investments in sustainable intensification of smallholder agriculture
Globally, most people are (and will be) in mixed crop – livestock
systemsarea ( million km2)
35.2
14
16.9
9.8
agro-pastoral
mixed extensive
mixed intensive
other
population (millions)
295.1
1099.2
2674
480.3
Mixed systems produce 65% beef, 75% milk and 55% of lamb in the developing World
Mixed systems produce almost 50% of the cereals of the World and the share will increase to over 60% by 2030
Can we untap the potential for carbon sequestration in rangeland systems?
Potential for carbonsequestration in rangelands(Conant and Paustian 2002)
•Largest land use system
•Potentially a large C sink
•Could be an important income diversification source
Difficulties in:
•Measuring and monitoring C stocks
•Establishment of payment schemes
•Dealing with mobile pastoralists
Global Livestock Trends and shaping the future
1. Global trends in meat and milk
2. Main drivers of demand and supply
3. Livestock and their implications for greenhouse gases
4. What might change in future?
5. Future choices
Some key trade-offs
• Biomass: food, feed, fuel and conservation agriculture
• Sustainability – socio-economic versus environmental and how are these valued (“multi-value” approach)
• Choices about where and how we raise animals– Wetter versus drier areas– Ruminants versus monogastrics– Moving towards moderate intensity systems
International Livestock Research Institute
Better lives through livestockAnimal agriculture to reduce poverty, hunger and environmental degradation in developing countries
www.ilri.org