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Mega Trends In Latin AmericaA Future Outlook for the ―Next-Generation‖ Continent
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Why Mega Trends?
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Definition of Mega Trends
Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis.
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Mega Trend MatrixUnderstanding Implications of Key Mega Trends within the Latin American Economy
Low Degree of Certainty
De
gre
e o
f Im
pa
ct
on
Lati
n A
me
ric
an
Ec
on
om
yL
ow
Hig
h
High
Urbanization
Generation Y
The Middle
Bulge
Future
Economic
Growth
Connectivity
and
Convergence
Innovating
to Zero
Infrastructure
Development
Health, Wellness,
and Well-Being
New Business
ModelBusiness Process
OutsourcingRenewable Power
Generation
Rise of
MultilatinasMigration
Social Programs
Note: The size of the bubble represents the scale of opportunity within each Mega Trend.
The Mega Trends have been plotted according to quantitative and qualitative reasoning.
Smart is the
New Green
Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis.
Mega Trend Matrix, Latin America, 2025
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Mega CitiesBy 2025, it is Expected that 85.7% of the Population (566.5 million people) in Latin America Will Be Living
in Urban Areas.
People per Square
Kilometre
Highly Urban Countries More than 200 people
Medium-high Urban Countries 100 – 200 people
Medium Urban Countries 50–100 people
Low-medium Urban Countries 10–50 people
Low Urban Countries Less than 10 people
Mexico CityPopulation
2025:
24.6 Million
GDP 2025:
$713.5 Billion
Bogota
Population
2025:
11.4 Million
GDP 2025:
$298.0
Billion
Rio de Janeiro
Population
2025:
13.6 Million
GDP 2025:
$327.1 Billion
Buenos
AiresPopulation
2025:
15.5 Million
GDP 2025:
$327.1 Billion
Sao PauloPopulation
2025:
23.2 Million
GDP 2025:
$643.9 Billion
Mega Cities in 2025
Emerging Mega
Cities (4-8 Million
population in 2025)
SantiagoPopulation
2025:
7.1 Million
Belo
HorizontePopulation
2025:
6.6 Million
GuadalajaraPopulation
2025:
5.7 Million
Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs Statistics; other regional and country level statistics bureaus; and Frost & Sullivan analysis.
Lima
Population
2025:
11.5 Million
Mega Cities and Emerging Mega Cities, Latin
America, 2025
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Energy Infrastructure—Power GenerationLatin America Power Generation Capacity Grows at High Rates as a result of General Infrastructure
Requirements. Brazil is Investing Over $110 Billion until 2020.
Installed Capacity (MW)
Country 2010 2020
Brazil 112,400 141,000
Mexico 60,400 74,400
Argentina 28,400 33,000
Colombia 13,300 17,000
Chile 13,100 18,000
Peru 6,200 11,600
Top Countries to
Watch 25%
23%
20%
28%
37%
86%
2010-2020 Generation
Capacity Expansion
Large hydroelectric power plants, gas-fueled
units, and wind generation are the region’s
focus to increase power generation capacity.
Mexico
Colombia
Brazil
Chile
Argentina
Peru
Capacity to be
Added by 2020
Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis
Power Generation Capacity Expansion, Latin America,
2011–2020
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Asia
Europe
Latin America
North America
Africa
Oceania
90%
41%
200%
140%
91%
200%
56%
150%
82%
112%
27%
4%
90%
56%
65%
7%
65%
11%
57%
83%
Source: 2009 telecommunications statistics from ITU 2020 projections from Frost & Sullivan analysis.
90%
200%
100%
68%
Telecom InfrastructureInvestments are Expected to Drive Mobile Penetration (M2M included) in Latin America from 91% in 2009 to
more than 200% in 2020, and Fixed Broadband from 7% to 65%.
Broadband
Penetration
Mobile
Penetration
2010
2020
Broadband penetration will increase until 2020, generating a
7.1% GDP increase in Latin America.
Broadband
Penetration
Mobile
Penetration
Broadband
Penetration
Mobile
Penetration
Broadband
Penetration
Mobile
Penetration
Broadband
Penetration
Mobile
Penetration
Broadband
Penetration
Mobile
Penetration
Forecast Telecom Infrastructure Investments, Global, 2010–2020
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The Middle BulgeMiddle Class Individuals to Account for 69% of Latin America’s Population (461 Million) in 2025.
Source: IADB, ECLAC, Frost & Sullivan analysis.
Note: Absolut values represent millions of individuals.
Poverty Line based on ECLAC definition of poverty - $2.5 U.S. dollars per person per day in market prices
2025
661.0 Million Individuals
2011
576.9 Million Individuals
$32,000
$14,600
$60,000
$3,650
$100,000
62
10.8%
Below
Poverty
Line
Poor
Lower Middle
Class
Middle Class
Upper Middle
Class
Rich
206
31.1%
64
9.7%
91
13.8%
180
27.2%
75
11.3%
Income Per Annum
Poverty
Line
74
12.9%
188
32.6%
38
6.6%
111
19.2%
103
17.9%
46
6.9%
Percent of Population by Income, Latin America,
2011 and 2025
U.S
. D
oll
ars
$
Middle class in Latin America
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Break Out Session
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From Macro to MicroHow to Take Mega Trends from Information to Strategy Implementation
Sub Trend
Mega Trend
Analysis of
Opportunities
and Unmet
Needs
Impact on
Future Product/
Technology
Impact to Your
Industry
Macro Micro
Infrastructure growth, Gen
Y trends, Renewable
Energy, Etc..
New product, service or
solution that addresses
the challenge
BONUS: Can you
partner with someone at
your table?
After the event:
what will it mean
for your
company?
Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis.
Challenge / opportunity
related to the Mega Trend
and Sub Trends
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Today’s Session
Mega Trends and Sub Trends
Challenge
Solutions:
Gen Y
Transformation away from private ownership of automobiles
Comfort level with technology, integration
Increase automobile sales for use by the next generation
More integrated, personalized experience
Car-sharing and related business models
Leverage “green” preferences
Small electric vehicles that can be used like current bike sharing
programs
Fully integrated and traceable by mobile apps
Data can be given back to the city or area businesses for infrastructure
management and targeted advertising
