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Eugene Rozanov
PMOD/WRC, Davos and IAC ETH, Zurich, Switzerland [email protected]
Modeling efforts towards understanding the energetic
particle effects in the atmosphere
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4Precipitating energetic particles
Rodger and Clilverd, Nature, 2008
ElectronsLow Energy: From plasma-sheat toauroral ovalMedium to high Energy: From the Radiation Belts to subauroral areas
Solar Protons: polar cap
Galactic cosmic rays: From outside to everywhere
Vertical distribution depends on particle energy
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4Processes
Ionization
Ion and neutral
chemsitry
Micro-physics
GEC
Transport
Clouds
Atm
osph
ere,
Clim
ateOzone
chemistry
Particle precipitation
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4Modeling of the ionization rates
Input: Observed fluence and energy spectrum, geomagnetic field
Method: Energy degradation schemeJackman et al., 1980; P. Verronen
Monte-Carlo modelsAIMOS, Wissing CRAC:CRII, Usoskin et al., 2010
Output:Ionization rates as a function of Pressure, location, solar activity, date
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Semeniuk et al., 2011
Modeling of the ionization rates
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Ion and neutral chemsitry:NOx production
The process can be described adding five ions and relevan reactions to chemical scheme: O+, O2
+, N+, N2+, NO+
Five ions are not enough for layer D (< 90 km)
N2+e*=>N++N(4S)+2eN2+e*=>N*+N(4S)+eN2+e*=>N2
++2eN2
++O=>NO++N(4S)N2+N+=>N2
++N(4S)N2
++e=>N*+N(4S)NO++e=>N(4S)+ON++O=>O++N(4S)N*+O2=>NO+O
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Ionization by particles below 90 km leads to the redistribution of NOy and enhancement of HOx
Ion and neutral chemsitry:HOx production
From Sinnhuber et al., 2012
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4Ion and neutral chemsitry:Treatment in the models
Above 90 km: 5-ion scheme – WACCM, HAMMONIA
NOx (ppbv) from MIPAS. HEPPA-2, Courtesy of B. Funke
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4Ion and neutral chemsitry:Treatment in the models
Below 90 km:
Complete ion chemsitry (50+ species) - SOCOLi Computationally expensive
Parameterizations of NOx and HOx production
•Porter et al., 1976; Solomon et al., 19810.7 N*, 0.55 N(4S) and 2 HOx per ion pair;widely applied below 90 km (WACCM, HAMMONIA, EMAC, SOCOL...)
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4NOx and HOx production
Widely used parameterization(0.7 N* + 0.55 N(4S) + up to 2 HOx per Ion Pair)
against
complete ion chemistryCCM SOCOL (Egorova et al., 2011)
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4Ion and neutral chemsitry:Treatment in the models
Below 90 km:
•Verronen and Lehman, 2013LUT, includes HNO3 production
•Nieder et al., 2014 (LUT)LUT
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4 Transport,
HEPPA-2 project
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Baumgartner et al, 2009
Treatment of the auroral electrons in low top CCMs (EMAC, SOCOL)
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4Effects of the solar protons
Observed and modeled NOy enhancement during October 2003 SPE, 70–90oN, Funke et al., 2011
MMM
MIPAS
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Ozone depletion by NOx and HOx
Nitrogen:
NO + O3 → NO2 + O2 NO2 + O → NO + O2
==========================
O3 + O → 2O2
Hydrogen:
OH + O3 → HO2 + O2 HO2 + O → OH + O2
==========================
O3 + O → 2O2
From D. Lary
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4Effects of the solar protons
Observed and modeled O3 depletion after the October 2003 SPE, 70–90oN, Funke et al., 2011
MMM
MIPAS
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Effects of EPP on NOx
NOx, (%) due to EPP averaged over 60o-90oS
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4EP influence on ozone climatology
Ozone change by EPP, 70-90oN, CCM SOCOL v2.0, Rozanov et al., 2012
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JanuaryPolarAER LBL code
Cooling rate due to polar ozone depletion
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Downward propagating responseor ‘top-down’ route
Kodera and Kuroda, (2002)Kodera and Kuroda, (2002)
EPP coolingand O3 decrease
Hadley sell shift and ... (J.Haigh)
Thomson & Wallace (1998)
Solar UV heatingand O3 increase
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4EP influence on surface air temperature
DJF, SOCOL v2.0, all EPRozanov et al., 2012
DJF compositeHigh Ap-Low ApSAT from ERA-40
JGR, 2009
DJF, UIUC CCM, RERozanov et al., 2005
NDJ compositeHigh D1-Low D1from GISSMaliniemi et al., 2013
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The Deep Solar Minimum 2008
• Long phase (780 days) without sunspots similar to 1913• Solar activity not predictable
A long term prospective?
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Evolution of the solar modulation potential from 10Be record (proxy for SSI)
Abreu et al., 2010
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4The effects of Ap decrease on NOy
Rozanov et al., 2012
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From Calisto et al., 2013
Ozone changes after strong SPE (Carrington-like, August, 2020)
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4SAT after strong SPE
(Carrington-like, August, 2020)
January, SAT, from Calisto et al., 2013
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4Conclusions
The progress in the modelling and understanding of the EP effects is evident:
The set of parameterizations for the treatment of EP effects in differnt models is available;The magnitude of the EP influence is comparable with solar UV;First time ever EP are included in the forcing set of CCMI
Challenges:
Parameterization for relativistic and middle energy electronsDownward propagation of NOx from the lower thermosphere (HEPPA-2) Climate response, understanding mechanisms behind top-down signal propagationProjection of EP fluxes and spectrum behavior for future grand minimum of the solar activity
