Download - Demographic and Deprivation Change in Buckinghamshire

Buckinghamshire County Council

Demographic and Deprivation Change in Buckinghamshire

Marcus GruppHolly Pedrick

Policy, Performance and Communications


Purpose

• To provide an update as to the changes underway in the Bucks population

• To consider how the information can be used to shape services


Drivers of population change: births

• TFR increasing – 2.1 children per woman (England similar)• Increases FR for all women key child bearing age (not under 20s and 40+)• Rising births – 11% higher since 2001 (+600 yr)

•

1.51.61.71.81.92.02.12.2

2001 2004 2007 2010

Total Fertility Rate (TFR)

TFR


Drivers of population change: births - deaths• Births - constant TFR (2.10) = 500 extra births annually • Deaths - constant 4k per year• Natural increase in population due to more births than deaths

Natural population change

-6,000

-4,000

-2,000

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

1991 2001 2011 2021

Births (main proj)

Births (2.10 TFR)

Deaths

Natural Change

Nat. Change (2.1)


Drivers of population change: age structure of population

More pensioner

houses

Less families

19,838 more

people (33%)

8,031 less young people

(-6%)

4,519 less people (-1%)

Modelled births (could be 5k higher with 2.1 TFR)

Lessyoung people


Drivers of population change: housing

• Household size = falling– 2.47 people per house (2011) to 2.32 (2026)– 2.32 causes current population (510k) to fall by 21k (4%), but – 15k new builds allocated creates a net rise 4k people (514k) by 2026

• Uncertainty in AVDC - 15k homes to keep workforce constant (2006-2031)– extra 4,500 to 13,500 homes not currently allocated (AVDC)

• Number of houses affects net migration ...


Drivers of population change: migration

• Lots movement in population (6% of Bucks population)– UK migration – 27k move in / 26k leave– Overseas migration – 3.9k move in / 3.7k leave

Net Migration


What does this mean for Bucks…

• Small population increase - 1.2%– aging population– ‘low’ number of new builds

• Uncertainty around CYP numbers– 9k less 0-15’s (1.9 TFR)– No change 0-15’s (2.1 TFR)

• Housing– 15,000 less working age– More allocations by AVDC?

Uncertainty due to TFRs and houses builds

*

Clear aging population

% change - 2011 to 2026


Population Changes• Increasing populations:

– Urban– stable births and deaths– net in-migration increase– house builds 2.5 x higher

• Decreasing populations:– rural– aging population, more deaths– falling births – Lowest rate of house builds

Get rid of decimals on legend

Locality differences

-12% to -7%

3% to 7%

2011 to 2026


Deprivation Issues and People at Risk• 9% of children live in families in receipt of out of work benefits (9.4k)

– More families experience income deprivation in areas classified as deprived by IMD

• 6% of children receive free school meals (4.4k)– Worse educational outcomes for these pupils

• Overall educational attainment is 65%– Most affluent ACORN groups 2.5x higher than least affluent groups

• Higher proportion of BME population in deprived areas – Worse education outcomes overall (Early years and KS1, 2 and 4) and

youth offending


Deprivation Issues and People at Risk• 7.4% of babies born were classed as low birth weight (national average 7.6%)

– Higher percentage of babies with low birth weight in IMD most deprived areas• Increasing birth rate

– Birth rate twice as high among the IMD most deprived areas than least deprived areas

• People who are affluent are less likely to become deprived– Current HP / MM areas previously classed as HP, MM, SS/PP, SF and UP

• 356 Looked After Children (LAC) in Bucks (2010)– LAC 2x higher in IMD deprived LLSOA’s (0.62% v’s 0.31% of under 18s)– 60% LAC from Moderate Means / Hard Pressed areas (4x ave. MM, 7x HP )

• 45% of children have experienced bullying– Pupils from Hard Pressed and Urban Prosperity (town) areas are most affected

• 90 young women referred to ‘RU Safe’ (2009-2010)– Higher risk of sexual exploitation for those who go missing frequently or live in care

11


Index of Multiple Deprivation (2010)

AylesburyHigh Wycombe

Seven IMD Domains1. Income Deprivation2. Employment Deprivation3. Health Deprivation and Disability4. Education, Skills and Training Deprivation5. Barriers to Housing and Services6. Crime7. Living Environment Deprivation


Number of people at risk

• Multiple issues are experienced by those most in need • Large number people affected and getting worse - 4% population

IMDNo. of 30% most deprived areas (English scale)

5,000 children aged 0-15


Hard Pressed and Moderate Means

ACORN Variables• Age quartiles• Ethnicity• Type of employment• Level of qualifications• Socio economic classification• Commute method• Type of residential dwelling• Number of cars per household• Property owner or renter• Rooms and population per household


Moderate Means and Hard Pressed Households

Number of Households

Percentage of Households

Urban 20,575 57%Market Town 12,634 35%Rural 2,317 6%Isolated 661 2%Total 36,187 100%

Isolated not shown on map

• Only half of those affected are in Aylesbury & Wycombe









• Over 1/3rd in Market Towns









• Over 1/3rd in Market Towns

• 1 in 10 in rural / isolated



Number of households at risk

ACORNModerate Means / Hard Pressed Households

Change (2008-2011)• +29% Hard Pressed• -8% Moderate Means• + 12% Both groups

15.7k households are MM / HP families


Key Issues• Recent unpredicted rise in TFR – more children

• Falling household size – uncertainty of new house builds in AVDC

• Reduction in population aged 0 – 15, but if new TFR remains constant then there will be no overall change

• Children and families in areas at risk of deprivation are at a greater risk of experiencing certain issues e.g. LAC

• Large number of children and families living in areas where people experience a range of deprivation issues

• Around half of all areas at risk of deprivation are not in the urban areas in Bucks

• How can this information be used to better shape services?

Download - Demographic and Deprivation Change in Buckinghamshire

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