Demand for fibres: adjusting to
different priorities – it is not just
about volume
IWTO 2016 Congress, Sydney
April 4 2016
Bruna Angel
Fibres Consultant, PCI Wood Mackenzie
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Agenda
Textile fibre volumes: current situation and outlook.
The success of filament and of polyester fibres over the last 20 years.
Global drivers of demand for fibre and their interaction with megatrends.
Economic growth and population.
Technical innovation as a driver of fibre demand.
Sustainability: a challenge for all fibres. How is the manmade fibre sector
tackling this challenge?
MMF= Manmade fibres
PET= Polyester / Polyethylene Terephthalate
PSF= Polyester staple fibre
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Polyester continues to dominate textile fibre consumption
0
20
40
60
80
100
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Mill
ion
to
nn
es
Polyester F+S Cotton Cellulosic F+S Nylon F+S Polypropylene F+S Acrylic Wool
World – Fibre Mill Consumption
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0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Mill
ion
to
nn
es
Cotton Polyester S Cellulosic S Acrylic S
Wool Polypropylene S Nylon S MMF filament
MMF filament growing faster than staple fibres
World – Fibre Mill Consumption
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Key PSF market segments (ktes) 2015
Market segment % share
Hygiene / wipes 15%
Fillings / waddings 27%
Technical 2%
Carpets 4%
Home furnishings 16%
Auto 2%
Activewear 3%
Apparel 33%
Volume total ktes 15868
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The political aspect: China‘s 5-Year Plan objectives for
chemical fibre production
6
• 12th
Plan 2010 – 2015 achieved +9.2% CAGR
• 13th
Plan 2016 – 2020 targets +3.4-3.6% CAGR
• Reduce investment.
• Raise operating rates.
Will China be able to balance high company debt, non performing loans, slower
domestic growth and a competitive external environment with employment objectives.
Will the government allow bankruptcies among large petrochemical and fibre
enterprises?
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The vast majority of MMF production growth has been in China
World – MMF Production by Region
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Mill
ion
to
nn
es
Americas EE/WE/T AME/Aus S Asia India China/HK JKT
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Global excess capacity at polyester filament + staple
60%
70%
80%
90%
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Mill
ion
to
nn
es
Capacity Production Operating Rate (%) (RHS)
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• price competitive – widely available, highly efficient process, high speed production and
processing.
• few barriers to technology and raw materials widely available.
• highly flexible – dyeing (fabric, package, spin, batch), denier (microfibers are exceedingly soft,
islands in the sea can create suede like fabrics).
• many variants (lustre, cross section, dpf, decitex).
• easy care (cool wash/line dry/crease free) and wrinkle resistant
• resistant to stretching and shrinking , resistant to most chemicals and to mildew.
• abrasion resistant and strong.
• blends easily with natural fibres. cotton/poly, wool/poly, viscose/poly. Home textiles & Apparel.
• bicomponent fibres for filling – warm, light weight, easy care, pillows. Home textiles & Apparel.
• tyrecord – strong long lasting. Industrial.
• auto upholstery, headliners, hoses, belts.
• carpet – staple and filament.
• fine filtration applications - non wovens, industrial
• the best sustainability story of all synthetic fibres – recycling of PET bottles and increasingly
recycling of polyester post consumer textiles and apparel
Polyester properties – recipe for success
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Very broadly speaking, cross sections are used as follows:
• Trilobal, octolobal, tape, diabolo (ie different solid shapes) alter the lustre
(and to a lesser degree handle) of the fabric.
• Hollow cross sections are used to regulate thermal properties (often to
store heat).
• Certain cross sections are used in bicomponent yarns to alter the
differential shrinkage of the two polymer components and so achieve
properties like stretch, different colour values, etc.
• A channelled surface (eg Coolmax, Gcool) is generally about moisture
transportation, wicking, etc.
Applications for different fibre cross sections
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China cotton and polyester staple prices
Fibre price comparisons should include losses to yarn stage
0,0
0,5
1,0
1,5
2,0
2,5
0
100
200
300
400
500
600ja
nv.-
05
juil.
-05
jan
v.-
06
juil.
-06
jan
v.-
07
juil.
-07
jan
v.-
08
juil.
-08
jan
v.-
09
juil.
-09
jan
v.-
10
juil.
-10
jan
v.-
11
juil.
-11
jan
v.-
12
juil.
-12
janv.-
13
juil.
-13
jan
v.-
14
juil.
-14
jan
v.-
15
juil.
-15
jan
v.-
16
Price
ra
tio
US
c/k
g
CCI Type 3128B China PSF 1.4/1.5x38mm den China cotton/PSF price ratio (RHS)
Source: PCI Wood Mackenzie, Cotton
Outlook
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Global variables and mega trends: a feedback loop that is
always changing
Global macro drivers of fibre
demand
Some mega trends
Economy Living standards: volume and
qualityGDP growth Food
Per capita incomes Water
Population dynamics Housing
Absolute numbers/growth Health
Age distribution
Government policy Freedom of movement
Industrial policy MigrationDevelopment policy Mega-cities
Currency AgeingTrade
Technology Sustainability
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Global economic growth is projected to slow
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
World Major Advanced Economies
Emerging & Developing Asia CIS
Latin America M. East & N Africa
Sub-Saharan Africa
GDP growth, annual % change, constant prices
Source: IMF WEO October 2015
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Per capita incomes still rising
Per capita GDP based on PPP (Purchasing Power Parity), current international dollar
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
MajorAdvancedEconomies
Emerging &Developing
Asia
CIS Latin America M. East & NAfrica
Sub-SaharanAfrica
1990 2000 2010 2020
Source: IMF WEO October 2015
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Per capita fibre demand: are high income regions saturated?
Are there real opportunities in low income regions?
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
kg/c
apita
Wool Cotton MMF
Final Demand by Region, kg per Capita - 2015
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Incremental growth in fibre consumption and in population
-0,2
0,0
0,2
0,4
0,6
0,8
1,0
1,2
1,4
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
1985-2000 2000-2015 2015-2030
Bill
ion p
eople
Mill
ion
to
nn
es
Wool Cotton MMF Population (RHS)
Source: PCI Wood Mackenzie, US
Census Bureau
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Effect of ageing on fibre consumption
UK research – UK Office for National Statistics: Age group 50 – 60 yrs
spends 7% less per capita and age group 60+ yrs spends 19% less per
capita than previous age group.
US women’s total apparel spending by age group and store, 2013, US BLS
+3.4% CAGR -0.3% CAGR -2.5% CAGR
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Japanese population profile
18
Japan Population Profile 2000 - 2030) Japan Population above / below 50 yrs
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
Mill
ions
<50 ≥508 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8
0-4
10-14
20-24
30-34
40-44
50-54
60-64
70-74
80-84
90-94
100+
millions
age groups
Female 2000 Female 2030
Male 2000 Male 2030
Source: US Census Bureau
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Chinese population profile
19
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
Mill
ion
s
<50 ≥5075 50 25 0 25 50 75
0-4
10-14
20-24
30-34
40-44
50-54
60-64
70-74
80-84
90-94
100+
millions
age groups
Female 2000 Female 2030
Male 2000 Male 2030
China Population Profile 2000 - 2030 China Population above / below 50 yrs
Source: US Census Bureau
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South Asian population profile
20
South Asia Population Profile 2000 - 2030 South Asia Population above / below 50 yrs
100 50 0 50 100
0-4
10-14
20-24
30-34
40-44
50-54
60-64
70-74
80-84
90-94
100+
age millions
age groups
Female 2000 Female 2030
Male 2000 Male 2030
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
Mill
ion
s
<50 ≥50
Source: US Census Bureau
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Africa / Middle East population profile
150 100 50 0 50 100 150
0-4
10-14
20-24
30-34
40-44
50-54
60-64
70-74
80-84
90-94
100+
age groups
million
Africa & Middle East
Female 2000 Female 2030
Male 2000 Male 2030
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
million
China India S Asia AME
Working age population: 15-64
Source: US Census Bureau
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End-use mix - % share global all-fibres demand 1990-2025
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
% s
ha
re
Apparel Household Industrial
Global all-fibres demand by end-use share (%)
% share 1990 2025
Apparel 69.4% 53.4%
Industrial 14.9% 26.1%
Household 15.7% 20.5%
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End-use definitions – selected apparel categories
Source: PCI Fibres
Knitting Weaving Nonwovens Other
Intimate
apparel
Womens bras / underwear
Womens camisoles / vest
Shapewear
Mens underwear / vests
Thermal underwear
Nightwear
Mens underwear
Nightwear
Intimates
Stretch wovens
Disposable
underwear
Minor trims
Sportswear Mens sportswear
Womens sportswear
Base layers
As for knits
Active walking / climbing
gear
Performance apparel
Interlinings
Membranes
Fillings,
waddings
Minor trims
Drawstrings,
fasteners
Outerwear Womens / mens outerwear
Childrens outerwear
Knitwear
As for knits
Casual anoraks, fashion
jackets
Fillings,
waddings
Interlinings
Minor trims
Drawstrings,
fasteners
Career
apparel /
uniforms
Coverall uniforms (with logo)
Polo tops + logo
Military apparel
Protective apparel
Uniforms, suits, outdoor
wear
Medical / hospital apparel
Military apparel
Protective apparel
Interlinings,
fillings
Medical
disposable
apparel
Decoration,
cap badges,
braids
Ethnic
costumes
Saris (warp knit) Saris, thobe fabrics, gowns
Dishdash, hijab, burqa
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End-use definitions – certain industrial textiles
Knitting Weaving Nonwovens Other
Automotive
textiles
Knitted auto
upholstery
Headliners
Car covers
Woven auto
upholstery
Seat belts (narrow
woven)
Car covers
Airbags
Insulation
Trunk lining
Glove compartment
lining
Filtration
MRG base yarns
Light denier
industrial
Spinnaker
Parachute
Hot air balloons
Military textiles
Braids
Other Agricultural textiles
Medical and sanitary
Luggage / backpacks
Coating substrates
Filtration / separation
fabrics
Construction
Agricultural textiles
Luggage / backpacks
Safety systems
Tents / marquees
Sporting equipment
Filtration
Industrial wipes
Fillings
Construction
Packing materials
Medical and sanitary
Industrial felts
Insulation materials
Sewing threads
- Industrial
- Apparel
- Household
Light denier
netting
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Fabric / product construction: from composites using fibres to
3D spacer fabrics - where are 3D printed textiles?
3D spacer fabrics
Mainly knitted fabrics from MMF filament.
Used to replace foam and neoprene.
Ability to vary thickness, vary the face fabrics, vary the internal structure.
Advantages:
Permeable
Insulation (vibration, temperature, sound)
Compression / redistribution of pressure
Durability
Recyclable
Hygienic/ easy care / easy wash
Mildew resistant
Applications include
Packaging
Bedding products / mattresses / mattress covers / blankets / pillows
Compression / medical / veterinary products
Interior textiles / curtain backing / carpet underlay / seating / cushions
Automotive
Footwear / uppers and soles
Clothing including protective clothing
Filtration / construction / architecture / renewable energy
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3D spacer fabrics
http://www.dafamesh.com.cn
http://www.1stwebbing.com/spacer_fabric.php
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Environmental degradation – persistence of plastic waste
Source: http://www.theguardian.com/environment/gallery/2009/jun/05/waste-world-environment-day
Photograph: Gent Shkullaku/AFP
Sheep feed off rubbish left
on one of Albania's biggest
beach resorts of Durres.
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From melted plastic to branded, high value, performance
footwear: Nike Vapour Untouchable
http://news.nike.com/news/nike-vapor-untouchable-cleat-merges-speed-strength-and-
sustainability
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Polyester filament / staple in rPET
10
5
15
50
45
40
30
20
35
25
0
million mt
85.6%
4.2%
PTF PIFPSF
63.1%
98.4%36.9%
95.8%
Total PET
14.4%1.6%
rPETVirgin
Share of polyester variants in rPET
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MMF end-product examples addressing product innovation and
sustainability
Recycling fishing nets: Adidas/Parley for the Oceans footwear/Primeknit
technology: http://news.adidas.com/US/Latest-News/ALL/ADIDAS-AND-PARLEY-FOR-THE-OCEANS-SHOWCASE-
SUSTAINABILITY-INNOVATION-AT-UN-CLIMATE-CHANGE-EVENT/s/f66a1b3e-8a9f-48b5-825f-63ddc72c09e7
Recycling carpets and fishing nets: Aquafil ECONYL ® http://www.econyl.com/ Re
Recycling polyester industrial and post consumer waste: Unifi REPREVE
http://repreve.com/
RadiciGroup MERMAIDS challenge – mitigation of the migration of micro and
nano-particles from synthetic textiles during laundering http://www.radicigroup.com/en/news-
media/news/radicigroup-and-cnr_ismac-biella-take-up-the-mermaids-challenge-commitment-to-environmental-sustainability-
30413
Developing recycling streams from PET bottles to coffee grounds and tyres.
ECOALF http://ecoalf.com/us_en/about/
3D printing of adult incontinence products incorporating cotton. Tamicarehttp://www.tamicare.com/
Bio-raw materials for MMF. Coca-Cola Plant Bottle
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