Transcript

Demand for fibres: adjusting to

different priorities – it is not just

about volume

IWTO 2016 Congress, Sydney

April 4 2016

Bruna Angel

Fibres Consultant, PCI Wood Mackenzie

Trusted commercial intelligencewww.woodmac.com

Trusted commercial intelligencewww.woodmac.com

2

Agenda

Textile fibre volumes: current situation and outlook.

The success of filament and of polyester fibres over the last 20 years.

Global drivers of demand for fibre and their interaction with megatrends.

Economic growth and population.

Technical innovation as a driver of fibre demand.

Sustainability: a challenge for all fibres. How is the manmade fibre sector

tackling this challenge?

MMF= Manmade fibres

PET= Polyester / Polyethylene Terephthalate

PSF= Polyester staple fibre

Trusted commercial intelligencewww.woodmac.com

3

Polyester continues to dominate textile fibre consumption

0

20

40

60

80

100

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

Mill

ion

to

nn

es

Polyester F+S Cotton Cellulosic F+S Nylon F+S Polypropylene F+S Acrylic Wool

World – Fibre Mill Consumption

Trusted commercial intelligencewww.woodmac.com

4

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

Mill

ion

to

nn

es

Cotton Polyester S Cellulosic S Acrylic S

Wool Polypropylene S Nylon S MMF filament

MMF filament growing faster than staple fibres

World – Fibre Mill Consumption

Trusted commercial intelligencewww.woodmac.com

5

Key PSF market segments (ktes) 2015

Market segment % share

Hygiene / wipes 15%

Fillings / waddings 27%

Technical 2%

Carpets 4%

Home furnishings 16%

Auto 2%

Activewear 3%

Apparel 33%

Volume total ktes 15868

Trusted commercial intelligencewww.woodmac.com

6

The political aspect: China‘s 5-Year Plan objectives for

chemical fibre production

6

• 12th

Plan 2010 – 2015 achieved +9.2% CAGR

• 13th

Plan 2016 – 2020 targets +3.4-3.6% CAGR

• Reduce investment.

• Raise operating rates.

Will China be able to balance high company debt, non performing loans, slower

domestic growth and a competitive external environment with employment objectives.

Will the government allow bankruptcies among large petrochemical and fibre

enterprises?

Trusted commercial intelligencewww.woodmac.com

7

The vast majority of MMF production growth has been in China

World – MMF Production by Region

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

Mill

ion

to

nn

es

Americas EE/WE/T AME/Aus S Asia India China/HK JKT

Trusted commercial intelligencewww.woodmac.com

8

Global excess capacity at polyester filament + staple

60%

70%

80%

90%

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Mill

ion

to

nn

es

Capacity Production Operating Rate (%) (RHS)

Trusted commercial intelligencewww.woodmac.com

9

• price competitive – widely available, highly efficient process, high speed production and

processing.

• few barriers to technology and raw materials widely available.

• highly flexible – dyeing (fabric, package, spin, batch), denier (microfibers are exceedingly soft,

islands in the sea can create suede like fabrics).

• many variants (lustre, cross section, dpf, decitex).

• easy care (cool wash/line dry/crease free) and wrinkle resistant

• resistant to stretching and shrinking , resistant to most chemicals and to mildew.

• abrasion resistant and strong.

• blends easily with natural fibres. cotton/poly, wool/poly, viscose/poly. Home textiles & Apparel.

• bicomponent fibres for filling – warm, light weight, easy care, pillows. Home textiles & Apparel.

• tyrecord – strong long lasting. Industrial.

• auto upholstery, headliners, hoses, belts.

• carpet – staple and filament.

• fine filtration applications - non wovens, industrial

• the best sustainability story of all synthetic fibres – recycling of PET bottles and increasingly

recycling of polyester post consumer textiles and apparel

Polyester properties – recipe for success

Trusted commercial intelligencewww.woodmac.com

10

Very broadly speaking, cross sections are used as follows:

• Trilobal, octolobal, tape, diabolo (ie different solid shapes) alter the lustre

(and to a lesser degree handle) of the fabric.

• Hollow cross sections are used to regulate thermal properties (often to

store heat).

• Certain cross sections are used in bicomponent yarns to alter the

differential shrinkage of the two polymer components and so achieve

properties like stretch, different colour values, etc.

• A channelled surface (eg Coolmax, Gcool) is generally about moisture

transportation, wicking, etc.

Applications for different fibre cross sections

Trusted commercial intelligencewww.woodmac.com

11

China cotton and polyester staple prices

Fibre price comparisons should include losses to yarn stage

0,0

0,5

1,0

1,5

2,0

2,5

0

100

200

300

400

500

600ja

nv.-

05

juil.

-05

jan

v.-

06

juil.

-06

jan

v.-

07

juil.

-07

jan

v.-

08

juil.

-08

jan

v.-

09

juil.

-09

jan

v.-

10

juil.

-10

jan

v.-

11

juil.

-11

jan

v.-

12

juil.

-12

janv.-

13

juil.

-13

jan

v.-

14

juil.

-14

jan

v.-

15

juil.

-15

jan

v.-

16

Price

ra

tio

US

c/k

g

CCI Type 3128B China PSF 1.4/1.5x38mm den China cotton/PSF price ratio (RHS)

Source: PCI Wood Mackenzie, Cotton

Outlook

Trusted commercial intelligencewww.woodmac.com

12

Global variables and mega trends: a feedback loop that is

always changing

Global macro drivers of fibre

demand

Some mega trends

Economy Living standards: volume and

qualityGDP growth Food

Per capita incomes Water

Population dynamics Housing

Absolute numbers/growth Health

Age distribution

Government policy Freedom of movement

Industrial policy MigrationDevelopment policy Mega-cities

Currency AgeingTrade

Technology Sustainability

Trusted commercial intelligencewww.woodmac.com

13

Global economic growth is projected to slow

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

World Major Advanced Economies

Emerging & Developing Asia CIS

Latin America M. East & N Africa

Sub-Saharan Africa

GDP growth, annual % change, constant prices

Source: IMF WEO October 2015

Trusted commercial intelligencewww.woodmac.com

14

Per capita incomes still rising

Per capita GDP based on PPP (Purchasing Power Parity), current international dollar

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

MajorAdvancedEconomies

Emerging &Developing

Asia

CIS Latin America M. East & NAfrica

Sub-SaharanAfrica

1990 2000 2010 2020

Source: IMF WEO October 2015

Trusted commercial intelligencewww.woodmac.com

15

Per capita fibre demand: are high income regions saturated?

Are there real opportunities in low income regions?

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

kg/c

apita

Wool Cotton MMF

Final Demand by Region, kg per Capita - 2015

Trusted commercial intelligencewww.woodmac.com

16

Incremental growth in fibre consumption and in population

-0,2

0,0

0,2

0,4

0,6

0,8

1,0

1,2

1,4

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

1985-2000 2000-2015 2015-2030

Bill

ion p

eople

Mill

ion

to

nn

es

Wool Cotton MMF Population (RHS)

Source: PCI Wood Mackenzie, US

Census Bureau

Trusted commercial intelligencewww.woodmac.com

17

Effect of ageing on fibre consumption

UK research – UK Office for National Statistics: Age group 50 – 60 yrs

spends 7% less per capita and age group 60+ yrs spends 19% less per

capita than previous age group.

US women’s total apparel spending by age group and store, 2013, US BLS

+3.4% CAGR -0.3% CAGR -2.5% CAGR

Trusted commercial intelligencewww.woodmac.com

18

Japanese population profile

18

Japan Population Profile 2000 - 2030) Japan Population above / below 50 yrs

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

Mill

ions

<50 ≥508 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8

0-4

10-14

20-24

30-34

40-44

50-54

60-64

70-74

80-84

90-94

100+

millions

age groups

Female 2000 Female 2030

Male 2000 Male 2030

Source: US Census Bureau

Trusted commercial intelligencewww.woodmac.com

19

Chinese population profile

19

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

Mill

ion

s

<50 ≥5075 50 25 0 25 50 75

0-4

10-14

20-24

30-34

40-44

50-54

60-64

70-74

80-84

90-94

100+

millions

age groups

Female 2000 Female 2030

Male 2000 Male 2030

China Population Profile 2000 - 2030 China Population above / below 50 yrs

Source: US Census Bureau

Trusted commercial intelligencewww.woodmac.com

20

South Asian population profile

20

South Asia Population Profile 2000 - 2030 South Asia Population above / below 50 yrs

100 50 0 50 100

0-4

10-14

20-24

30-34

40-44

50-54

60-64

70-74

80-84

90-94

100+

age millions

age groups

Female 2000 Female 2030

Male 2000 Male 2030

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

Mill

ion

s

<50 ≥50

Source: US Census Bureau

Trusted commercial intelligencewww.woodmac.com

21

Africa / Middle East population profile

150 100 50 0 50 100 150

0-4

10-14

20-24

30-34

40-44

50-54

60-64

70-74

80-84

90-94

100+

age groups

million

Africa & Middle East

Female 2000 Female 2030

Male 2000 Male 2030

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

million

China India S Asia AME

Working age population: 15-64

Source: US Census Bureau

Trusted commercial intelligencewww.woodmac.com

22

End-use mix - % share global all-fibres demand 1990-2025

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

% s

ha

re

Apparel Household Industrial

Global all-fibres demand by end-use share (%)

% share 1990 2025

Apparel 69.4% 53.4%

Industrial 14.9% 26.1%

Household 15.7% 20.5%

Trusted commercial intelligencewww.woodmac.com

23

End-use definitions – selected apparel categories

Source: PCI Fibres

Knitting Weaving Nonwovens Other

Intimate

apparel

Womens bras / underwear

Womens camisoles / vest

Shapewear

Mens underwear / vests

Thermal underwear

Nightwear

Mens underwear

Nightwear

Intimates

Stretch wovens

Disposable

underwear

Minor trims

Sportswear Mens sportswear

Womens sportswear

Base layers

As for knits

Active walking / climbing

gear

Performance apparel

Interlinings

Membranes

Fillings,

waddings

Minor trims

Drawstrings,

fasteners

Outerwear Womens / mens outerwear

Childrens outerwear

Knitwear

As for knits

Casual anoraks, fashion

jackets

Fillings,

waddings

Interlinings

Minor trims

Drawstrings,

fasteners

Career

apparel /

uniforms

Coverall uniforms (with logo)

Polo tops + logo

Military apparel

Protective apparel

Uniforms, suits, outdoor

wear

Medical / hospital apparel

Military apparel

Protective apparel

Interlinings,

fillings

Medical

disposable

apparel

Decoration,

cap badges,

braids

Ethnic

costumes

Saris (warp knit) Saris, thobe fabrics, gowns

Dishdash, hijab, burqa

Trusted commercial intelligencewww.woodmac.com

24

End-use definitions – certain industrial textiles

Knitting Weaving Nonwovens Other

Automotive

textiles

Knitted auto

upholstery

Headliners

Car covers

Woven auto

upholstery

Seat belts (narrow

woven)

Car covers

Airbags

Insulation

Trunk lining

Glove compartment

lining

Filtration

MRG base yarns

Light denier

industrial

Spinnaker

Parachute

Hot air balloons

Military textiles

Braids

Other Agricultural textiles

Medical and sanitary

Luggage / backpacks

Coating substrates

Filtration / separation

fabrics

Construction

Agricultural textiles

Luggage / backpacks

Safety systems

Tents / marquees

Sporting equipment

Filtration

Industrial wipes

Fillings

Construction

Packing materials

Medical and sanitary

Industrial felts

Insulation materials

Sewing threads

- Industrial

- Apparel

- Household

Light denier

netting

Trusted commercial intelligencewww.woodmac.com

25

Fabric / product construction: from composites using fibres to

3D spacer fabrics - where are 3D printed textiles?

3D spacer fabrics

Mainly knitted fabrics from MMF filament.

Used to replace foam and neoprene.

Ability to vary thickness, vary the face fabrics, vary the internal structure.

Advantages:

Permeable

Insulation (vibration, temperature, sound)

Compression / redistribution of pressure

Durability

Recyclable

Hygienic/ easy care / easy wash

Mildew resistant

Applications include

Packaging

Bedding products / mattresses / mattress covers / blankets / pillows

Compression / medical / veterinary products

Interior textiles / curtain backing / carpet underlay / seating / cushions

Automotive

Footwear / uppers and soles

Clothing including protective clothing

Filtration / construction / architecture / renewable energy

Trusted commercial intelligencewww.woodmac.com

26

3D spacer fabrics

http://www.dafamesh.com.cn

http://www.1stwebbing.com/spacer_fabric.php

Trusted commercial intelligencewww.woodmac.com

27

Environmental degradation – persistence of plastic waste

Source: http://www.theguardian.com/environment/gallery/2009/jun/05/waste-world-environment-day

Photograph: Gent Shkullaku/AFP

Sheep feed off rubbish left

on one of Albania's biggest

beach resorts of Durres.

Trusted commercial intelligencewww.woodmac.com

28

From melted plastic to branded, high value, performance

footwear: Nike Vapour Untouchable

http://news.nike.com/news/nike-vapor-untouchable-cleat-merges-speed-strength-and-

sustainability

Trusted commercial intelligencewww.woodmac.com

29

Polyester filament / staple in rPET

10

5

15

50

45

40

30

20

35

25

0

million mt

85.6%

4.2%

PTF PIFPSF

63.1%

98.4%36.9%

95.8%

Total PET

14.4%1.6%

rPETVirgin

Share of polyester variants in rPET

Trusted commercial intelligencewww.woodmac.com

30

MMF end-product examples addressing product innovation and

sustainability

Recycling fishing nets: Adidas/Parley for the Oceans footwear/Primeknit

technology: http://news.adidas.com/US/Latest-News/ALL/ADIDAS-AND-PARLEY-FOR-THE-OCEANS-SHOWCASE-

SUSTAINABILITY-INNOVATION-AT-UN-CLIMATE-CHANGE-EVENT/s/f66a1b3e-8a9f-48b5-825f-63ddc72c09e7

Recycling carpets and fishing nets: Aquafil ECONYL ® http://www.econyl.com/ Re

Recycling polyester industrial and post consumer waste: Unifi REPREVE

http://repreve.com/

RadiciGroup MERMAIDS challenge – mitigation of the migration of micro and

nano-particles from synthetic textiles during laundering http://www.radicigroup.com/en/news-

media/news/radicigroup-and-cnr_ismac-biella-take-up-the-mermaids-challenge-commitment-to-environmental-sustainability-

30413

Developing recycling streams from PET bottles to coffee grounds and tyres.

ECOALF http://ecoalf.com/us_en/about/

3D printing of adult incontinence products incorporating cotton. Tamicarehttp://www.tamicare.com/

Bio-raw materials for MMF. Coca-Cola Plant Bottle

Trusted commercial intelligencewww.woodmac.com

31

Disclaimer

This report has been prepared for the IWTO 2016 Congress in Sydney, Australia

by Wood Mackenzie Limited. The report is intended solely for the benefit of the

IWTO 2016 Congress and its contents and conclusions are confidential and may

not be disclosed to any other persons or companies without Wood Mackenzie’s

prior written permission.

The information upon which this report is based has either been accessed by us

from publically available sources or comes from our own experience, knowledge

and databases. The opinions expressed in this report are those of Wood

Mackenzie. They have been arrived at following careful consideration and

enquiry but we do not guarantee their fairness, completeness or accuracy. The

opinions, as of this date, are subject to change. We do not accept any liability for

your reliance upon them.

Strictly Private & Confidential

Europe +44 131 243 4400

Americas +1 713 470 1600

Asia Pacific +65 6518 0800

Email [email protected]

Website www.woodmac.com

Wood Mackenzie™, a Verisk Analytics business, is a trusted source of commercial intelligence for the world's

natural resources sector. We empower clients to make better strategic decisions, providing objective analysis

and advice on assets, companies and markets. For more information visit: www.woodmac.com

WOOD MACKENZIE is a trade mark of Wood Mackenzie Limited and is the subject of trade mark registrations and/or applications in

the European Community, the USA and other countries around the world.

Thank you


Top Related